13arjanbraamskamp_nichi_businesssummit

How the Dutch Keep Their Feet Dry (and not move to Germany)

Adaptation, Risk Mitigation & National Will

Arjan BraamskampSenior Economic OfficerNetherlands Consulate General in NY

12-04-2023

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The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by rivers, subject to sea and river flooding

Deltacommissaris3

The Netherlands, at risk• 400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse)

draining NW Europe• 60% of land at/below sea level• 17 million people, 9 million of which live

below flood level• GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which

produced at/below sea-level)• 2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds

of locks, sluices, pumping stations

• storm surge, wet weather, heavy river discharge, subsiding, drought

• changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100

• water mgmt is a matter of national survival and an opportunity

100 km

AHR

Deltacommissaris

Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL

Deltacommissaris

Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL

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Deltacommissaris

Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline

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300 45 km

750 50 km

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1958 flood risk/safety standards established“Never Again” mentality

Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas with most risk have highest levels of protection

Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra projects (models recently updated given 40 rys of demographic and econ changes)

Caveat for US: Weather and landscape differences• Slow-moving winter storms vs fast-moving

tropical storms (wetter)• Max storm wind speeds different• Rainfall manageable• Small- to- mid-sized rivers

1/10,000 = 1/500?

Deltacommissaris

There…all done…….Now we’re safe!

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Subsidence

Mining Gas + salt

Geological

Peat oxidation

The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured

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Sealevel rise(20 cm-->

60-85 cm/100y)

More /extreme storms?

More/intense rainfall

Spatialdevelopments

Increased erosion

Subsidence10 cm/100yr

Salt intrusion

Decreasedriver

discharge- 60%

Increased river

discharge+ 10%

Deltacommissaris

Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009)(flood resistance to flood accomodation)

Multi-layered approach:

1. Robust Protection

2. Smart land-use planning

Room for the River

Living with Water: spatial planning, urban design, multiple layers of defense and green infra

3. Disaster management (Katrina effect)

Room for the River

Depoldering, the plan3

river MeuseTo the sea

river Merwede

Bottleneck Gorinchem

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waterdynamic3

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

Waal River / Nijmegen Project• River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to

450 m width

Options:

• Ag / undeveloped land available to north

• Northern river bank land targeted for development

• Key road / rail / harbor infrastructure

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Bottleneck

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1

R 3294 N ijm ege n02

Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage / flow capacity, and new land opportunities

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Before / After (impression)

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the bad news

public involvement

salomons judgement

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

first scenario’s

fright fight acquiescence building trust pride

Nijmegen takes lead

definite plan

start realization

Stages

Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?)

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URBAN FLOODPLAIN

Deltacommissaris

Water Storage Capacity “Rotterdam”

UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE

Source: The Urbanists

Source: The Urbanists

Deltacommissaris

Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment)

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Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales

Deltacommissaris

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Rising seas

• Increasing sea level• Increasing population and economic value in coastal

zones world wide

IPCC, 2007 National Geographic , Sept

2013

Photo: Stephen Wilkes

Deltacommissaris

Building with Nature?

young dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formation

let nature do partof the work ...

while creating newnew eco-opportunities

Deltacommissaris

Dutch Context, coastal erosion

Shortage of natural sediment

Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed

Solution: Nourishments

City of Egmond

Deltacommissaris

Development of nourishment strategy

Increase in volume

Annual added sand volumes: • Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr• Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr

Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !!

Change in design

Deltacommissaris

~2

km

~ 1 km

Objectives:1. Extra Safety2. Nature area / ‘Quality of living’3. Innovation

‘Hook’ alternative

70 M Euro.21 M m3 of sand

The Sand Engine!

Deltacommissaris

Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast

Initial design

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Initial

After 3 year

After 5 years

After 10 years

After 20 years

Source: Rijkswaterstaat / Shore Monitoring & Research

MEASURED / PREDICTED EVOLUTION (DELFT3D)

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Constructed peninsula

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Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths

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Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths

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Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr

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Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs

Sand Motor: Pros & ConsPros:

1. Reduced costs in nourishment & maintenance

2. Reduced environmental Impact (use natural processes)

3. One-time pricetag @ $ 90 mln

4. Offers recreational and R&D opportunities

Cons:

5. Pilot process – Unproven Technology long-term– Difficult to replicate

6. Reduced impact on environment and ecology may be overstated

Stakeholders:

Waterboard DelflandRijkswaterstaatProvince South HollandVan Oord DredgingDeltares

2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired)Working together with water: a living land builds for its future

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The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100 years (how to not move to Germany)

Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff)

2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges

2014: Delta Decisions

2015 – 2020: Develop projects

2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation

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Cost-benefit analysis for every project

Tipping points approach

No-regret measures

Adaptive management

Dutch – American Collaborations• Post-Katrina Louisiana• Mississippi River Floods (St Louis)• Los Angeles River• SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage)• Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta)• Galveston (Ike Dike)• SLR Norfolk• SLR Miami• Post-Sandy Region (NY-NJ-CT)

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Deltacommissaris

New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water System

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PILOT PROJECT: MirabeauGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy

FILMORE DRAINAGE IMPACTGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy

Super-Storm SandyThey said: “We need Dutch barriers!”

We said: “Wait a minute…”

Rebuild by Design

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Rebuild by Design• Innovating together to create a resilient region• Initiative by Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force and HUD• Address regional vulnerabilities and develop fundable solutions• Promote resilience through innovative planning and design

“Don’t ask for answers to pre-defined challenges – allow for creative process and for industry expertise

to develop and design multiple solutions that will maximize resilience in the region and reduce

climate-change related risks.”

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Source: RebuildbyDesign.org

Design as tool towards resiliency• BIG – The Big U around Manhattan

“Cross-breeding public infrastructure with social programs”• Interboro Team – Regional protection on community level L.I.

“Building with nature: Living with the Bay”• OMA / HaskoningDHV – Hoboken resilient waterfront

“Resist – delay – Store - Discharge”• MIT / ZUS & Urbanisten – New Meadowlands

“Combine functions of Economy – Ecology – Transport – Energy”• Unabridged – A new future of Bridgeport, CT

“Blueprint for coastal community development”• West 8 / WXY / Arcadis – Blue Dunes

“Restoration of coastal barrier functions”

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Picking sides…..

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For more info about:

• The Art of Flood Fighting• Multiple Layers of Defense• Regional Approach• Dutch soccer• Wooden Shoes, Bikes,

Windmills etc etc

Arjan Braamskamp

Arjan.braamskamp@minbuza.nl

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Thank You