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10th NEW YEAR HOTEL
INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015 Tuesday, 6 January
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
AGENDA
Welcome Nicholas Pattie, Managing Director, Whitebridge Hospitality
Release of 2014 Performance Trends Elizabeth Winkle, Managing Director, STR Global
Transaction Trends and Outlook for 2015 Philip Camble, Director, Whitebridge Hospitality
Closing Remarks Andrew Hepner, Partner, Mayer Brown
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
WELCOME
Nicholas Pattie
Managing Director, Whitebridge Hospitality
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Whitebridge Hospitality Strategic Advisory Projects a welcome return to core services in the UK and Europe during 2014
Expert evidence for the Government of Hungary at ICSID (Washington DC) in relation to an integrated resort development
Commercial due diligence for Osprey Equity Partners investment in Spitalfields Feasibility study for Titanic Quarter hotel, Belfast
Strategic advice
Commercial due diligence for LJ Capital
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Whitebridge Hospitality Management Selection Projects 2014 provided a number of brand and operator selection / contract negotiation assignments across Europe
Hotel development at the American Express Community Stadium, Brighton City Quays’ hotel, Belfast Harbour
Brentford Football Club hotel development New Peterhof hotel, St Petersburg
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Whitebridge Hospitality Asset Management Assignments We were involved in asset management across six European countries in 2014
The Morrison Dublin, a Doubletree by Hilton hotel
Espiche Golf Resort, Algarve Grand Tirolia, Kitzbuhel (hotel, golf and spa)
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
RELEASE OF 2014 PERFORMANCE TRENDS
Elizabeth Winkle
Managing Director, STR Global
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Let the Good Times Roll Nov 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Strong Industrial Fundamentals Supply & Demand % Change, Nov 2014 YTD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
North America Central &South America
Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &Oceania
Supply Demand
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Countdown: 14 from 2014
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#14 Europe: International Arrivals +20m YOY
# of international tourist arrivals in millions (Source: UNWTO)
531 Europe
2012
Global 1.036
583 Europe
2014 f
Global 1.132
514 Europe
2011
Global
996
563 Europe
2013
Global 1.087
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#13 Demand: +10% from Previous Peak
12MMA Demand; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07
EU + UK US
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#12 USA: 57 Months of RevPAR Growth
RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hu
nd
red
s 57 months of growth
9/11
SARS Global
Financial crisis
56 months of growth
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#11 Europe: 16 Consecutive Growth Months
RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hu
nd
red
s 16 months of growth
9/11
SARS Global
Financial crisis
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#10 USA: Pricing Power; EU Opportunity
12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07
EU + UK (EUR) US (USD)
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#9 RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak
12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07
Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#8 RevPAR: +>5% in 11/22 Capitals
Nov 2014 YTD % Change Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp
-38% -28% -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32%
AthensBucharest
Greater MadridLisbon
SofiaGreater Amsterdam
Greater BerlinBrussels
BudapestPrague
RomeGreater London
HelsinkiDublin
ParisMonacoWarsawVienna
BratislavaMoscow
Kiev
Hundreds
Demand Nov YTD RevPAR Nov YTD LC
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#7 Dominators: Paris, Monaco, London
November 2014 YTD RevPAR levels (EUR), Luxury & Upper Upscale
€0 €50 €100 €150 €200 €250 €300 €350
ParisMonaco
Greater LondonGreater Amsterdam
RomeGreater Madrid
DublinVienna
Greater BerlinMoscowAthens
BrusselsPrague
HelsinkiLisbon
BudapestBucharest
WarsawBratislava
SofiaKiev
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#6 What a Difference 12 Months Makes 12MMA ADR & Occupancy Dec 2013 – Nov 2014
£137
£138
£139
£140
£141
82% 83%
£59
£60
£61
£62
£63
£64
72% 73% 74% 75% 76%
London Regional UK Growth
Recovery
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#5 Regional UK: Recovery!
2.9% London
7.4% Aberdeen
4.4% Belfast
10.2% Manchester
14.2% Cardiff
6.3% Edinburgh
10.0% Birmingham
24.3% Glasgow
12.1% Liverpool
10.8% Southampton November 2014 YTD, RevPAR %
7.6% Total UK
10.4% Regional UK
2.9% London
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#4 London: Keeps Pace with Inflation
Actual and Inflation Adjusted ADR, 2000 – 2015F
£120 £114 £124 £134 £140 £137 £141 £147
£120 £123
£127
£132
£136
£140 £142
£144
£80
£90
£100
£110
£120
£130
£140
£150
£160
Nominal ADR
ADR 2008 grown by CPI
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#3 Regional UK: Room Rate on the Rise
Actual and Inflation Adjusted ADR, 2000 – 2015F
£64 £60 £59 £59 £59 £60 £64 £65
£64 £66
£68
£71
£73 £75
£76 £77
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
£90
Nominal ADR
£12
ADR 2008 grown by CPI
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#2 Changing Face of Regional UK
Accumulated room count growth by class; YE 2004 – November 2014
2.8% CAGR
2.0% CAGR
1.1% CAGR
0.9% CAGR
1.1% CAGR
1.6% CAGR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Economy Class (120K)
Upper Midscale Class (90K)
Upscale Class (79K)
Upper Upscale Class (59K)
Midscale Class (48K)
Luxury Class (12K)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
#1 Regional UK: New Normal
Under contract room pipeline by class until 2017
CAGR +2.3%
CAGR +2.4%
CAGR +2.3%
CAGR +1.3%
CAGR +0.7%
CAGR +1.5%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Economy Class (120K)
Upper Midscale Class (90K)
Upscale Class (79K)
Upper Upscale Class (59K)
Midscale Class (48K)
Luxury Class (12K)
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
2015 Resolutions
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Forecast – 23/27 RevPAR Growth Expected Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, Nov 2014 Edition
AMS
ATH
BAR
BER
BRU BUD
COL
DBL
DUS
FRA
HAM
MAD
MIL
MOS
MUC
PAR
PRA
ROM STU
VIE
WAR
ZUR LON
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
AD
R %
Ch
ang
e
Occupancy % Change
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Forecast – 15 of 16 Markets Set to Rise Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, Nov 2014 Edition
BIR EDI
GAT
GLA
HEA LEE
MAN
LON
LON LC
LON UUC
LON UC
LON UMC
LON MEC
RUK
RUK UUC
RUK UMC RUK MEC
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
AD
R %
Ch
ang
e
Occupancy % Change
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Happy New Year! www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn
STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
TRANSACTION TRENDS AND
OUTLOOK FOR 2015
Philip Camble
Director, Whitebridge Hospitality
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
2014
3. Germany
(Meininger Hotels, £315m)
TRANSACTION TRENDS – MOST ACTIVE MARKETS
2012
1. France
2. Russia
3. Regional UK
2013
1. Regional UK
2. London
3. France
2. France (Groupe du Louvre, £953m)
1. Regional UK (144x Travelodge hotels, £520m)
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
TRANSACTION TRENDS – BIGGEST SINGLE ASSET DEAL
Marriott Champs-Elysèes
192 keys
£276m
£1.4m per key
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Europe UK NAM Middle East Asia LAC Africa
TRANSACTION TRENDS – INVESTOR NATIONALITY
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
TRANSACTION TRENDS – INVESTOR TYPE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Private Equity High Net Worth Property Co
Institution Hotel Co Sov Wealth
REIT
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Self-operate Man con Lease
TRANSACTION TRENDS – OPERATING STRUCTURE
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Distressed Not Distressed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Distressed Not Distressed
TRANSACTION TRENDS – DISTRESSED SALES, UK
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
UK London Ireland W Eur E Eur MEA
TRANSACTION TRENDS – DISTRESSED SALES, EMEA
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
2014 – A YEAR OF UPS AND DOWNS
1. Regional UK – up 10.4%
2. Russia in Ukraine
3. Europe first to land on a comet
4. The rise of IS in Syria and Iraq
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS London RevPAR Will Grow by 5% or More
Why?
+ UK economy
+ Farnborough
+ Low levels of new supply
+ Olympic hangover over
+ Chinese visas
+ City as Forex centre for renminbi
+ City as a centre of Islamic finance
+ Ramadan moving into June
- Strengthening of Sterling
1.9% (IMF)
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS London RevPAR Will Grow by 5% or More
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
2013 2014
London RevPAR (GBP)
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS London RevPAR Will Grow by 5% or More
2.9%
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Scotland RevPAR Will Grow by no More Than 5%
Why?
June 700-year anniversary of Battle of Bannockburn
July Commonwealth Games in Glasgow
August Even larger Edinburgh Festival
September Scotland votes on independence
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
2013 2014
Scotland RevPAR (GBP)
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Scotland RevPAR Will Grow by no More Than 5%
11.5%
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Scotland RevPAR Will Grow by no More Than 5%
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jun Jul Aug Sep
Scotland RevPAR (GBP)
2013
2014
5.7%
17.4%
8.7%
17.9%
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Hotel Company IPO
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Hotel Company IPO
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Heathrow T2 will Open and Brandenburg Airport Will Not
£2.5bn
20m pax
Opening due 2012
€4.3bn
27m pax
Opening due 2010
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Heathrow T2 will Open and Brandenburg Airport Will Not
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Speedy Construction Applied in EMEA
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Speedy Construction Applied in EMEA
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Ryugyong Hotel Opens
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Ryugyong Hotel Opens
?
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Ryugyong Hotel Opens
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS Ryugyong Hotel Opens
****ing
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS The Sports Accumulator
Wimbledon
Tour de France
Champions League
World Cup
Ryder Cup
4 out of 5 =
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
REVIEW OF 2014 FORECASTS The Sports Accumulator
Champions League Bayern Munich Real Madrid ✗
Wimbledon Andy Murray Novak Djokovic ✗ Tour de France Chris Froome Vincenzo Nibali ✗
World Cup Spain Germany ✗ Ryder Cup Europe Europe
Event Forecast Winner
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 London RevPAR Will Grow by More Than 2%
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
“Jamais Deux Sans Trois”
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 A Third “Killer” Building In London
?
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Aberdeen RevPAR Will Decline
Source: Nasdaq
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2011 2012 2013 2014
Aberdeen RevPAR (GBP)
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Aberdeen RevPAR Will Decline
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015
iHotels
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015
G-hotels
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015
G-spot Hotels
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Orient Express Hotels Brand Will be in Use Again
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Orient Express Hotels Brand Will be in Use Again
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Branded Budget Hotel Yield At or Under 4%
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Drone Will be Used by Our Industry in Some Form
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 Baby or Sport?
v
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
PHIL’S FORECASTS FOR 2015 France to Finish RWC Higher Than England
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
Thank You
Philip Camble
Director, Whitebridge Hospitality Ltd
10th NEW YEAR HOTEL INVESTMENT SUMMIT, 2015
CLOSING REMARKS
Andrew Hepner
Partner, Mayer Brown
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