10.1016 j.irfa.2015.01.005 sentiment in oil markets

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Sentiment in Oil Markets

Peter Deeney, Mark Cummins, Michael Dowling, Adam Bermingham

PII: S1057-5219(15)00016-2DOI: doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.005Reference: FINANA 795

To appear in: International Review of Financial Analysis

Received date: 1 December 2014Revised date: 22 December 2014Accepted date: 8 January 2015

Please cite this article as: Deeney, P., Cummins, M., Dowling, M. & Bermingham,A., Sentiment in Oil Markets, International Review of Financial Analysis (2015), doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.005

This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication.As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript.The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proofbefore it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production processerrors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers thatapply to the journal pertain.

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Sentiment in Oil Markets

Peter Deeneya * 1

, Mark Cumminsa, Michael Dowling

a, Adam Bermingham

b 2

a Dublin City University Business School, DCU, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland

b The Insight Centre for Data Analytics, DCU, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland

Abstract

Sentiment is shown to influence both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and

Brent futures prices during the period 2002 - 2013. This is demonstrated while

controlling for stock indices, exchange rates, financial costs, inventory and

supply levels as well as OPEC activity. Sentiment indices are developed for WTI

and Brent crude oils using a suite of financial proxies similar to those used in

equity research where the influence of sentiment has already been

established. Given the novel nature of this study, multiple hypothesis testing

techniques are used to ensure that these conclusions are statistically robust.

JEL Classification: C12, C22, C52, Q43

Keywords: market sentiment, crude oil, energy, multiple hypothesis testing

*Corresponding Author is Peter Deeney, peter.deeney2@mail.dcu.ie at QG24, Dublin City

University Business School, DCU, Glasnevin, Dublin 9, Ireland +35317005742

E-mail addresses: peter.deeney2@mail.dcu.ie (Peter Deeney), mark.cummins@dcu.ie

(Mark Cummins) , michael.dowling@dcu.ie (Michael Dowling) , and

adambermingham@gmail.com (Adam Bermingham)

1

This material is based upon works supported by Dublin City University under the Daniel

O'Hare Research Scholarship scheme awarded to Peter Deeney. 2 Adam Bermingham of The Insight Centre for Data Analytics based in Dublin City University

is supported by Science Foundation Ireland under Grant Number SFI/12/RC/2289.

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❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥ ❖✐❧ ▼❛*❦❡#,

❆❜"#$❛❝#

❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐& &❤♦✇♥ #♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❜♦#❤ ❲❡&# ❚❡①❛& ■♥#❡3♠❡❞✐❛#❡ ✭❲❚■✮ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❢✉#✉3❡&

♣3✐❝❡& ❞✉3✐♥❣ #❤❡ ♣❡3✐♦❞ ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❚❤✐& ✐& ❞❡♠♦♥&#3❛#❡❞ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❝♦♥#3♦❧❧✐♥❣ ❢♦3 &#♦❝❦

✐♥❞✐❝❡&✱ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ 3❛#❡&✱ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦&#&✱ ✐♥✈❡♥#♦3② ❛♥❞ &✉♣♣❧② ❧❡✈❡❧& ❛& ✇❡❧❧ ❛& ❖H❊❈

❛❝#✐✈✐#②✳ ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡& ❛3❡ ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❢♦3 ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧& ✉&✐♥❣ ❛ &✉✐#❡ ♦❢

✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♣3♦①✐❡& &✐♠✐❧❛3 #♦ #❤♦&❡ ✉&❡❞ ✐♥ ❡K✉✐#② 3❡&❡❛3❝❤ ✇❤❡3❡ #❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ &❡♥#✐♠❡♥#

❤❛& ❛❧3❡❛❞② ❜❡❡♥ ❡&#❛❜❧✐&❤❡❞✳ ●✐✈❡♥ #❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ♥❛#✉3❡ ♦❢ #❤✐& &#✉❞②✱ ♠✉❧#✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦#❤❡&✐&

#❡&#✐♥❣ #❡❝❤♥✐K✉❡& ❛3❡ ✉&❡❞ #♦ ❡♥&✉3❡ #❤❛# #❤❡&❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉&✐♦♥& ❛3❡ &#❛#✐&#✐❝❛❧❧② 3♦❜✉&#✳

❑❡②✇♦%❞'✿ ♠❛3❦❡# &❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✱ ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧✱ ❡♥❡3❣②✱ ♠✉❧#✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦#❤❡&✐& #❡&#✐♥❣✳

❏❊▲ ❈❧❛''✐✜❝❛2✐♦♥ ❈✶✷✱ ❈✷✷✱ ❈✺✷✱ ◗✹✸

❍✐❣❤❧✐❣❤2'✳

• ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉#✉3❡& ♣3✐❝❡& ❢3♦♠ ❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✷ #♦ ❉❡❝ ✷✵✶✸ ❛3❡ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡❞✳

• ❆ &❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ✐& ❝♦♥&#3✉❝#❡❞ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❇❛❦❡3 ❛♥❞ ❲✉3❣❧❡3 ✭✷✵✵✻✮✳

• ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐& ❢♦✉♥❞ #♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇3❡♥# ❝3✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣3✐❝❡&✳

• ❘❡&✉❧#& ❛3❡ &#❛#✐&#✐❝❛❧❧② 3♦❜✉&# ✉&✐♥❣ ♠✉❧#✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦#❤❡&✐& #❡&#✐♥❣✳

!❡♣!✐♥& '✉❜♠✐&&❡❞ &♦ ■♥&❡!♥❛&✐♦♥❛❧ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❆♥❛❧②'✐' ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡! ✶✱ ✷✵✶✹

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✶✳ ■♥$%♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥

❚❤✐# $❡#❡❛$❝❤ ✐# ♠♦*✐✈❛*❡❞ ❜② ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡# *❤❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉$ ♦❢

*❤❡ #*♦❝❦ ♠❛$❦❡*#✳ ❲❡ #❤♦✇ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡# ♣$✐❝❡# ✐♥ *❤❡ ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧❧②✲

*$❛❞❡❞ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*# ❜② ♠❡❛#✉$✐♥❣ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✉#✐♥❣ ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❝♦♥#*$✉❝*❡❞ ❢$♦♠ ❛ #✉✐*❡ ♦❢

❛♣♣$♦♣$✐❛*❡ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡* ♣$♦①✐❡#✳ ❚❤❡#❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❢♦$ ❲❡#* ❚❡①❛# ■♥*❡$♠❡❞✐❛*❡

✭❲❚■✮ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥* ❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧# #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥*❧② ✐♠♣$♦✈❡ ❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡# ❢♦$

❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧ ❞✉$✐♥❣ *❤❡ ♣❡$✐♦❞ ❏❛♥✉❛$② ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡$ ✷✵✶✸✳

❙❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ♥♦* ♦♥❧② ❛ ♣❤❡♥♦♠❡♥♦♥ ♦❜#❡$✈❡❞ ❜② ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧ *$❛❞❡$# ❜✉* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥*

✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡# ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧ *$❛❞❡$#✳ ❖✬❈♦♥♥❡❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❚❡♦ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❞❡♠♦♥#*$❛*❡ *$❛❞❡$ ♦✈❡$❝♦♥✲

✜❞❡♥❝❡❀ ❈♦❛*❡# ❛♥❞ ❍❡$❜❡$* ✭✷✵✵✽✮ #❤♦✇ ❛ ❧✐♥❦ ❜❡*✇❡❡♥ *❡#*♦#*❡$♦♥❡ ❧❡✈❡❧# ❛♥❞ *$❛❞✐♥❣

♦✉*❝♦♠❡#❀ ❋$♦♦* ❡* ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ #❤♦✇ *❤❛* ❝✉$$❡♥* *$❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥# ❛$❡ #✉❜❥❡❝* *♦ #❡♥#✐✲

*✐✈✐*② *♦ ♣❛#* ♣♦$*❢♦❧✐♦ ❧♦##❡#✱ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛ $❡❝❡♥* R✉❛❧✐*❛*✐✈❡ #*✉❞② ❜② ❋❡♥*♦♥✲❖✬❈$❡❡✈② ❡* ❛❧✳

✭✷✵✶✶✮ ♦❢ ✶✶✽ ❯❑✲❜❛#❡❞ ♣$♦❢❡##✐♦♥❛❧ *$❛❞❡$# ✐♥ ❡R✉✐*②✱ ❜♦♥❞✱ ❛♥❞ ❞❡$✐✈❛*✐✈❡# ♠❛$❦❡*#

✜♥❞# *❤❛* *$❛❞❡$# ❛❧❧♦✇ ❡♠♦*✐♦♥# *♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ *❤❡✐$ *$❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥✲♠❛❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ ♠❛♥♥❡$

*❤❛* ❞❡✈✐❛*❡# ❢$♦♠ ♣✉$❡❧② $❛*✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥✲♠❛❦✐♥❣✳

❙❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ❦♥♦✇♥ *♦ ❡①✐#* ✐♥ *❤❡ ❡R✉✐*② ♠❛$❦❡*#✳ ❙❝❤♠❡❧✐♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ $❡♣♦$*# *❤❛*

#❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ❤❛# ❛ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥* ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ #*♦❝❦ ♠❛$❦❡* $❡*✉$♥# ❛❝$♦## ♠❛♥② ✐♥❞✉#*$✐❛❧✐#❡❞

❝♦✉♥*$✐❡# ❛♥❞ ❤❛# ❛ ❣$❡❛*❡$ ❡✛❡❝* ♦♥ ❝♦✉♥*$✐❡# ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡ ❧❡## ♠❛$❦❡* ✐♥*❡❣$✐*② ❛♥❞ ♠♦$❡

❤❡$❞✲❧✐❦❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉$ ❢$♦♠ ✐♥✈❡#*♦$#✳ ❚❤❡ ✇♦$❦ ♦❢ ❇❛❦❡$ ❛♥❞ ❲✉$❣❧❡$ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ #❤♦✇# *❤❛*

#❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ♠♦#* ✐♥✢✉❡♥*✐❛❧ ♦♥ ✜$♠# ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛$❡ ❞✐✣❝✉❧* *♦ ✈❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐# ❝♦♥✜$♠❡❞ *❤❡

✇♦$❦ ♦❢ ❇❛$❜❡$✐#✱ ❙❤❧❡✐❢❡$ ❛♥❞ ❱✐#❤♥② ✭✶✾✾✽✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ #❤♦✇# *❤❛* ❞❡❝✐#✐♦♥# ♠❛❞❡ $❡❣❛$❞✐♥❣

✐♥✈❡#*♠❡♥* ❛$❡ ❛* *✐♠❡# ❜✐❛#❡❞ ❛♥❞ #✉❜❥❡❝* *♦ #②#*❡♠❛*✐❝ ❡$$♦$#✳ ❚❤❡#❡ ❡✛❡❝*# ❛$❡ ♥♦*

$❡♠♦✈❡❞ ❜② ❛$❜✐*$❛❣❡ ❞✉❡ *♦ *❤❡ ❧✐♠✐*# *♦ ❛$❜✐*$❛❣❡ ❡♥❝♦✉♥*❡$❡❞ ✐♥ *❤❡ ❡R✉✐*② ♠❛$❦❡*#

❛# ❞❡#❝$✐❜❡❞ ❜② ❇❛$❜❡$✐# ❛♥❞ ❚❤❛❧❡$ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✳

❲❛♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ #❤♦✇# *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ❛❝*✐✈❡ ✐♥ *❤❡ ❛❣$✐❝✉❧*✉$❛❧ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐*② ♠❛$❦❡*#✳

❇♦$♦✈❦♦✈❛ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❞❡♠♦♥#*$❛*❡# *❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥ *❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*# ❜② #❤♦✇✐♥❣

*❤❛* *❤❡ #❤❛♣❡ ♦❢ *❤❡ ❢♦$✇❛$❞ ❝✉$✈❡ ✐# ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ✈❡$② #*$♦♥❣ ♦$ ✈❡$② ✇❡❛❦ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥*

❛# ♠❡❛#✉$❡❞ ❜② *❤❡ ❚❤♦♠#♦♥ ❘❡✉*❡$# ◆❡✇#❙❝♦♣❡ ♣$♦❞✉❝*✳

✶

❉♦✇❧✐♥❣✱ ❈✉♠♠✐♥# ❛♥❞

▲✉❝❡② ✭✷✵✶✹✮ #❤♦✇ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢♦$ *❤❡ ❡①✐#*❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♣#②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♣$✐❝❡ ❜❛$$✐❡$# ✐♥ *❤❡

❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*#✳ ❇♦$♦✈❦♦✈❛ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❉♦✇❧✐♥❣✱ ❈✉♠♠✐♥# ❛♥❞ ▲✉❝❡② ✭✷✵✶✹✮ #❤♦✇

*❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐# ✐♥✢✉❡♥*✐❛❧ ✐♥ *❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡$✱ *❤❡#❡ ♣❛♣❡$# ❞♦ ♥♦* ❝♦♥#✐❞❡$

*❤❡ ✇❤♦❧❡ $❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥*✳ ❲❡ #❤♦✇ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ❝❛♥ ❜❡ R✉❛♥*✐✜❡❞ ❛♥❞ ✉#❡❞ *♦

❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♣$✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥*#✳ ■♥ *❤✐# ✐♥✈❡#*✐❣❛*✐♦♥ ✇❡ ✉#❡ #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧#

❢♦$ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥* ❛♥❞ *$❡❛* ✐* ❛# ❛♥ ❛❞❞✐*✐♦♥❛❧ ✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡ *♦ *❤❡ ❝❤♦#❡♥ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧

✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡#✳ ■♥ ❞♦✐♥❣ #♦ ✇❡ ❛❞❞ *♦ *❤❡ ❧✐*❡$❛*✉$❡ #❤♦✇✐♥❣ *❤❛* #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ❞♦❡# ♥♦* ❥✉#* ❤❛✈❡

❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❡①*$❡♠❡ ♦$ ✐♥ #♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❝✐$❝✉♠#*❛♥❝❡# ❜✉* ❤❛# ❛ ✇✐❞❡#♣$❡❛❞ ♠❡❛#✉$❛❜❧❡

❡✛❡❝*✳

❲❡ ♣$♦♣♦#❡ *❤❛* *❤❡$❡ ✐# #❡♥*✐♠❡♥* ✐♥ *❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡*# ❜❡❝❛✉#❡ ♦❢ *❤❡ ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦$ #♣❡❝✲

✶

❚❤♦♠$♦♥ ❘❡✉)❡*$ ◆❡✇$❝♦♣❡ ♠❡❛$✉*❡$ )❤❡ $❡♥)✐♠❡♥) ♦❢ )❤❡ )❡①) ✐♥ ♥❡✇$ *❡♣♦*)$ ✉$✐♥❣ ❛ ♣*♦♣*✐❡)❛*②

$❡♥)✐♠❡♥) ❡♥❣✐♥❡✱ )❤❡ ❞❡)❛✐❧$ ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛*❡ ♥♦) ♣✉❜❧✐❝❧② ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡✳

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

✉❧❛#✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❜❡❝❛✉+❡ ♦❢ ✐♥❢♦-♠❛#✐♦♥ ❛+②♠♠❡#-② ❜❡#✇❡❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ♦#❤❡-

♠❛-❦❡# ♣❛-#✐❝✐♣❛♥#+✳ ▲♦♥❣ ❛♥❞ +❤♦-# ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ❛❝#✐✈✐#② ✐♥ #❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛-❦❡#+ ✐+ ♥♦# ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡❞

✭❍✐-+❤❧❡✐❢❡-✱ ✶✾✾✵✮✳ ❖✐❧ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❛-❡ ✈✉❧♥❡-❛❜❧❡ #♦ ✉♥❡①♣❡❝#❡❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡+ ✐♥ #❤❡ ♣-✐❝❡

♦❢ ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ ♥❡❡❞ +❤♦-# ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡-✱ ♦✐❧ ❝♦♥+✉♠❡-+ ❛-❡ ❧❡++ ✈✉❧♥❡-❛❜❧❡ ❛+

#❤❡② ❤❛✈❡ ♠❛♥② ♦#❤❡- ❝♦+# ♣♦♦❧+ ✐♥ ❛❞❞✐#✐♦♥ #♦ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡+ ❛♥❞ +♦ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ❧❡++❡- ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦-

❧♦♥❣ ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+✳ ❚❤✐+ ✐+ ✐♥ ❦❡❡♣✐♥❣ ✇✐#❤ ❤❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣-❡++✉-❡ #❤❡♦-② ❢-♦♠ ❑❡②♥❡+

✭✶✾✸✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❍✐❝❦+ ✭✶✾✸✾✮✳ ❚❤✉+ ✇❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ +✐#✉❛#✐♦♥ ✇❤❡-❡ +♣❡❝✉❧❛#♦-+ ♣-♦✈✐❞❡ ✐♥+✉-✲

❛♥❝❡ #♦ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❜② #❛❦✐♥❣ #❤❡ ❡①❝❡++ ❧♦♥❣ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+ ♥♦# #❛❦❡♥ ❜② ❝♦♥+✉♠❡-+✱ ❜✉# ♦♥❧②

♣-♦❞✉❝❡-+ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❝❝❡++ #♦ ❛❧❧ #❤❡ ✐♥❢♦-♠❛#✐♦♥ -❡❣❛-❞✐♥❣ ♦✐❧ -❡+❡-✈❡+ ❛♥❞ +✉♣♣❧② ✐++✉❡+✳

❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥ ✭✷✵✶✶✮✱ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❈✐❢❛-❡❧❧✐ ❛♥❞ I❛❧❛❞✐♥♦

✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛❧❧ +❤♦✇ #❤❛# +♣❡❝✉❧❛#✐♦♥ ✐+ ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦-#❛♥# ❞-✐✈❡- ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡+✳ ❆+ ✇✐#❤ #❤❡

❡K✉✐#② ♠❛-❦❡#+ #❤❡-❡ ❛-❡ ❧✐♠✐#+ #♦ ❛-❜✐#-❛❣❡✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② #❤❡ +✐③❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♣♦+✐#✐♦♥+ #-❛❞❡-+ ❛-❡

♣❡-♠✐##❡❞ #♦ #❛❦❡ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ +✐③❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♠❛-❣✐♥ ❝❛❧❧+ ✇❤✐❝❤ #-❛❞❡-+ ✇✐❧❧ ✐♥❝✉- ✇❤✐❧❡ #❤❡②

✇❛✐# ❢♦- #❤❡✐- ♣-♦✜#+ #♦ ♠❛#❡-✐❛❧✐③❡✳ ❆❝❤❛-②❛✱ ▲♦❝❤+#♦❡- ❛♥❞ ❘❛♠❛❞♦-❛✐ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ♠❛❦❡

✐# ❝❧❡❛- #❤❛# #❤❡ ❧✐♠✐#+ ✐♠♣♦+❡❞ ❜② ♠❛-❣✐♥ ❝❛❧❧+ ♠❛❦❡ ❛-❜✐#-❛❣❡ ♣❛-#✐❛❧❧② ✐♥❡✛❡❝#✐✈❡ ✐♥

#❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛-❦❡#+✳ ❚❤❡-❡❢♦-❡ ❛-❜✐#-❛❣❡ ✐+ ❧✐♠✐#❡❞ ✐♥ ✐#+ ❛❜✐❧✐#② #♦ -❡♠♦✈❡ #❤❡ ❡✛❡❝# ♦❢

+❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✳

❋♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ #❤❡ ♠❡#❤♦❞+ ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❜② ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ ▲❡♠♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ I♦-#✲

♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❛♥❞ ❇❛❦❡-✱ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ❛♥❞ ❨✉❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✐♥ #❤❡✐- ❛♥❛❧②+✐+ ♦❢ #❤❡ ❡K✉✐#②

♠❛-❦❡#+✱ ✇❡ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❛ +✐♠✐❧❛- ♦✐❧ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❛-❡ #❤❡ ♣❡-❢♦-♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛

❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥#❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❜❡❢♦-❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❢#❡- #❤✐+ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❤❛+ ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞✳ I-♦♠♣#

♠♦♥#❤ ❢✉#✉-❡+ ♦❢ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥# ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧+ ❛-❡ ✉+❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛-② ✷✵✵✷ #♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡-

✷✵✶✸ ❛# ♠♦♥#❤❧② ❢-❡K✉❡♥❝②✳

❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ✉+❡❞ #❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ♣-♦①✐❡+ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❡K✉✐#② ❝♦♥#❡①#✿

✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ #-❛❞❡+✱ ♠❛-❦❡# ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#②✱ ❝❧♦+❡❞ ❡♥❞ ❢✉♥❞ ❞✐+❝♦✉♥#✱ ■I❖ ♥✉♠❜❡- ❛♥❞ ♦♣❡♥✐♥❣

-❡#✉-♥+✱ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ♣✉# ❝❛❧❧ -❛#✐♦✳ ◆♦♥❡ ♦❢ #❤❡+❡ ✇❛+✱ ♦♥ #❤❡✐- ♦✇♥✱ ❛ +✐♠♣❧❡ ♠❡❛+✉-❡ ♦❢

+❡♥#✐♠❡♥#❀ ❡❛❝❤ ❤❛❞ ❛♥ ✐❞✐♦+②♥❝-❛#✐❝ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ❜✉# ❛ ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ❛♥❛❧②+✐+

✭I❈❆✮ ✇❛+ ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ #♦ ❡①#-❛❝# #❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ +✐❣♥❛❧✳ ■♥ #❤✐+ ✐♥✈❡+#✐❣❛#✐♦♥ ✇❡ ✉+❡✿ #❤❡

✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉#✉-❡+ #-❛❞❡❞✱ #❤❡ ❤✐+#♦-✐❝ ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#② ♦❢ #❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡✱ #❤❡ ♣✉#✲❝❛❧❧ -❛#✐♦

♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♦♣#✐♦♥+✱ #❤❡ -❛#✐♦ ♦❢ +♣❡❝✉❧❛#✐✈❡ #-❛❞❡+ #♦ ♦✐❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#②

♦❢ ❛ ❧♦❝❛❧ +#♦❝❦ ♠❛-❦❡# ✐♥❞❡①✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② #❤❡ ❙✫I ✺✵✵ ❢♦- ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ #❤❡ ❊✉-♦ ❙#♦①① ✺✵

❢♦- ❇-❡♥#✳ ◆♦♥❡ ♦❢ #❤❡+❡ ✐+ ❛ ♣✉-❡ ♠❡❛+✉-❡ ♦❢ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ❜✉#✱ ✇❡ ✉+❡ ❛ I❈❆ ♣-♦❝❡++ #♦

❡①#-❛❝# #❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ +✐❣♥❛❧ +✐♠✐❧❛- #♦ ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮✳

❚❤❡ +❡❧❡❝#❡❞ ♣-♦①✐❡+ ❢♦- ❲❚■ ♦- ❇-❡♥# ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❛-❡ ❡♥#❡-❡❞ ✐♥#♦ ❛ ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦✲

♥❡♥# ❛♥❛❧②+✐+✱ #❤❡ ✜-+# ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐+ ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ❛+ #❤❡ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡①

❢♦- ❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧✳ ■# ✐+ ❡+#❛❜❧✐+❤❡❞ #❤❛# ❧♦✇ ❝♦--❡❧❛#✐♦♥+ ❡①✐+# ❜❡#✇❡❡♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡+ ✐♥ #❤❡ +❡♥#✐✲

♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛♥❣❡+ ✐♥ ❛ -❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥#❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ✈❛-✐❛❜❧❡+✱ +❤♦✇✐♥❣

#❤❛# #❤❡ ❡✛❡❝#✐✈❡♥❡++ ♦❢ #❤❡+❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ✐+ ♥♦# ❛ ❝♦♥+❡K✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥#❛❧ ✐♥❢♦-♠❛#✐♦♥✳

❆+ #❤❡+❡ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❛-❡ ❡①#-❛❝#❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ♣-♦①✐❡+ ❢♦- +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# +✐♠✐❧❛- #♦ ♣-♦①✐❡+

✉+❡❞ ✐♥ ❡K✉✐#✐❡+ -❡+❡❛-❝❤✱ ✐# ✐+ -❡❛+♦♥❛❜❧② ❛-❣✉❡❞ #❤❛# #❤❡+❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❛-❡ ♠❡❛+✉-✐♥❣ ♦✐❧

♠❛-❦❡# +❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✳

❚♦ #❡+# #❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ +❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡+ ❢♦- ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥# ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧✱ ❡❛❝❤ ✐♥❞❡①

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✐! ❛❞❞❡❞ %♦ ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❝♦♥!✐!%✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♥♦♥ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡!✳ ❚❤❡ ❡✛❡❝%

♦❢ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡! ✐! %❤❡♥ ❡✈❛❧✉❛%❡❞ !%❛%✐!%✐❝❛❧❧② ✇❤✐❧❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝✐%❧② ❝♦♥%,♦❧❧✐♥❣ ❢♦,

❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡! %❤❛% ❛,❡ ❦♥♦✇♥ %♦ ❞,✐✈❡ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡!✳ ❚❤❡!❡ ❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧

❞,✐✈❡,! ❛,❡✿

❜,♦❛❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ♣❡,❢♦,♠❛♥❝❡ ❛! ♠❡❛!✉,❡❞ ❜② !%♦❝❦ ✐♥❞❡① ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥%!✱ ✇❡ ✉!❡ %❤❡

❙✫> ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉,♦ ❙%♦①① ✺✵✱ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ❛♥❞ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ✇❤✐❝❤ ,❡♣,❡!❡♥% %❤❡ ❯❙✱ %❤❡ ❊✉,♦③♦♥❡✱

❈❤✐♥❛ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♣❛♥ %❤❡ ✇♦,❧❞✬! ❢♦✉, ❧❛,❣❡!% ❝♦♥!✉♠❡,! ♦❢ ♦✐❧✱ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ▲✐ ❛♥❞ ▲✐♥ ✭✷✵✶✶✮❀

✶✳ %❤❡ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛, ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡! ❢♦, %❤❡ !%♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✉!❡❞ ✐♥ ✭✐✮✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦✱

❏❛♣❛♥❡!❡ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛, ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❘❡❜♦,❡❞♦ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥ ❛♥❞

❈③✉❞❛❥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ❛♥❞ ❇,❛❤♠❛!,❡♥❡✱ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❙✐!!♦❦♦ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ✇❤♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%❡ ❛ ❞✐,❡❝%

❝♦♥♥❡❝%✐♦♥ ❜❡%✇❡❡♥ ❢♦,❡✐❣♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡! ❛♥❞ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡!❀

✷✳ %❤❡ ❇❛❧%✐❝ ❉,② ■♥❞❡① ✭❇❉■✮✱ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮❀

✸✳ %❤❡ ❝♦!% ♦❢ ❝♦,♣♦,❛%❡ ❞❡❜%✱ ✇❤❡,❡ ✇❡ ✉!❡ ▼♦♦❞②✬! ❆❛❛ ❛! ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ❝♦,♣♦,❛%❡

❜♦♥❞ ,❛%❡✱ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮❀

✹✳ %❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥%♦,② ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❲♦,❧❞ ♦✐❧ !✉♣♣❧②✱ ❛♥❞

✺✳ ❖>❊❈✬! !♣❛,❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐%② ❛♥❞ ♣,♦♣♦,%✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦,❧❞ ♣,♦❞✉❝%✐♦♥ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥

✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ▲✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐! ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳

❚♦ ✐♥❢♦,♠❛❧❧② ♠❡❛!✉,❡ %❤❡ ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛%❡ %❤❡

❛❞❥✉!%❡❞ ❘

2❛♥❞ ❋✲%❡!% ,❡!✉❧%!❀ %❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ,❛%✐♦ %❡!% ✐! ✉!❡❞ %♦ ❢♦,♠❛❧❧② %❡!% ✇❤❡%❤❡,

%❤❡ ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧! ❛❢%❡, %❤❡ ✐♥❝❧✉!✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✐! !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%

♦, ♥♦%✳ ❆! ✇❡ ♣❡,❢♦,♠ ✾✷ !✐♠✉❧%❛♥❡♦✉! ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%!✱ ✐% ✐! ♥❡❝❡!!❛,② %♦ ❛❞❞,❡!! %❤❡

♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛,✐!♦♥ ♣,♦❜❧❡♠✳ ❚❤❛% ✐!✱ ✇❤❡♥ ♠❛♥② ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%! ❛,❡ ❜❡✐♥❣ ❝❛,,✐❡❞

♦✉% !✐♠✉❧%❛♥❡♦✉!❧② %❤❡,❡ ✐! ❛ ♣,♦❜❛❜✐❧✐%② %❤❛% !♦♠❡ ♥✉❧❧ ❤②♣♦%❤❡!❡! ♠❛② ❜❡ ,❡❥❡❝%❡❞

❢❛❧!❡❧②✳ ❚❤✐! ✐! ❛❞❞,❡!!❡❞ ✇✐%❤ ❛ ❣❡♥❡,❛❧✐!❡❞ ✈❡,!✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ ♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%✐♥❣

♣,♦❝❡❞✉,❡ ♦❢ ❍♦❧♠ ✭✶✾✼✾✮✳

❚❤❡ ,❡♠❛✐♥❞❡, ♦❢ %❤❡ ♣❛♣❡, ✐! !❡% ♦✉% ❛! ❢♦❧❧♦✇!✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✷ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥! %❤❡ !❡❧❡❝%✐♦♥

♦❢ %❤❡ ♣,♦①✐❡! ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ♠❡%❤♦❞ ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤ ♣,✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥% ❛♥❛❧②!❡! ✇❡,❡ ✉!❡❞ %♦

❢♦,♠ %❤❡ ♦✐❧ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥%✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✸ !❤♦✇! %❤❡ ♠❡%❤♦❞! ✉!❡❞

❢♦, ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ %❤❡ ❢✉❡❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♠♦❞❡❧! ❛❣❛✐♥!% ✇❤✐❝❤ %❤❡ %✇♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡

%❡!%❡❞✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✹ ♣,❡!❡♥%! %❤❡ ❡♠♣✐,✐❝❛❧ ,❡!✉❧%! ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ❝,✉❞❡ ♦✐❧! ❛♥❞

❞❡♠♦♥!%,❛%❡! %❤❡ ,♦❜✉!%♥❡!! ♦❢ ♦✉, ✜♥❞✐♥❣ %❤❛% !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡! ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡! ✉!✐♥❣ ❛

♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦%❤❡!✐! %❡!%✐♥❣ ✭▼❍❚✮ ❢,❛♠❡✇♦,❦✳ ❙❡❝%✐♦♥ ✺ ❝♦♥❝❧✉❞❡!✳

✷✳ ❈#❡❛&✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦✐❧ ,❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ✐♥❞❡①

■♥ %❤✐! !❡❝%✐♦♥ %❤❡ ♠❡%❤♦❞ ♦❢ ❝♦♥!%,✉❝%✐♥❣ ❛♥ ♦✐❧ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞❡① ✐! ❞❡!❝,✐❜❡❞✳ ❚❤❡

❝♦♥!%,✉❝%✐♦♥ ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡! ❝♦♠❜✐♥✐♥❣ ♣,♦①✐❡! ❢♦, !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✉!✐♥❣ >❈❆✱ ❛! ✉!❡❞ ❜② ❇❛❦❡,

❛♥❞ ❙%❡✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ❇❛❦❡, ❛♥❞ ❲✉,❣❧❡, ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ ▲❡♠♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ >♦,%♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛ ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱ ❛♥❞

▼✐❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❙❛♥❦❛,❛❣✉,✉!✇❛♠② ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✇❤♦ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥ %❤❡ ❡c✉✐%✐❡! ♠❛,❦❡%✳

❚❤❡ ♣,♦①✐❡! ✉!❡❞ ❢♦, %❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛,❦❡%! ❛,❡ !❡❧❡❝%❡❞ !♦ ❛! %♦ ❜❡ !✐♠✐❧❛, %♦ %❤♦!❡ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❤❛✈❡

❜❡❡♥ ✉!❡❞ ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ !❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡! ✐♥ ❡c✉✐%② ,❡!❡❛,❝❤✳

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✷✳✶✳ ❙❡❧❡❝'✐♥❣ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ -❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ♣0♦①✐❡-

❊!✉✐$✐❡& '❡&❡❛'❝❤ ✉&❡& ❛ ✇✐❞❡ ✈❛'✐❡$② ♦❢ ♣'♦①✐❡& ❢♦' &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$✳ ◆♦♥❡ ♦❢ $❤❡&❡ ♣'♦①✐❡&

❛'❡ ❛ ♣❡'❢❡❝$ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❜✉$ $❤❡② ❛'❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ✉&✐♥❣ ♣'✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$

❛♥❛❧②&✐& ✭;❈❆✮ $♦ ♣'♦❞✉❝❡ ✉&❡❢✉❧ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞✐❝❡&✳ ■♥ $❤❡ &❛♠❡ ✇❛② ♣'♦①✐❡& ❢♦' &❡♥✲

$✐♠❡♥$ ❛'❡ ❝❤♦&❡♥ ❢'♦♠ $❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❞❛$❛ ❛♥❞ ❛'❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ✉&✐♥❣ ;❈❆ $♦ ❢♦'♠ ❛

&❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦' ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❢♦' ❇'❡♥$ ❝'✉❞❡ ♦✐❧&✳

❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❲✉'❣❧❡' ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ✉&❡ $❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ♣'♦①✐❡& ◆❨❙❊ $✉'♥♦✈❡'✱ ❝❧♦&❡❞ ❡♥❞

❢✉♥❞ ❞✐&❝♦✉♥$✱ ♥✉♠❜❡' ♦❢ ❛♥❞ ❛✈❡'❛❣❡ ✜'&$ ❞❛② '❡$✉'♥ ♦❢ ■;❖&✱ &❤❛'❡ ♦❢ ❡!✉✐$② ✐&&✉❡& ✐♥

$♦$❛❧ ❡!✉✐$② ❛♥❞ ❞❡❜$ ✐&&✉❡& ❛♥❞ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥❞ ♣'❡♠✐✉♠✳ ❚❤❡&❡ ❛'❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ $❤❡ ;❈❆

♣'♦❝❡&& $♦ ♣'♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞❡①✳ ❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❲✉'❣❧❡' ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ $❤❛$ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❡❛❝❤

♣'♦①② ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥$❛✐♥ ❛♥ ✐❞✐♦&②♥❝'❛$✐❝ ❛& ✇❡❧❧ ❛& &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$✱ $❤❡ ;❈❆ ✐&♦❧❛$❡&

$❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$✳ ❲❡ ❝❤♦&❡ ❛♣♣'♦♣'✐❛$❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛'❦❡$ ♣'♦①✐❡& ❜❛&❡❞ ♦♥

&❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ '❡&❡❛'❝❤ ✐♥ ❡!✉✐$✐❡& ✇❤✐❝❤ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❛❝$✐✈✐$②✱ ♦✐❧ ♣'✐❝❡ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$②✱ ♠❛'❦❡$

❢❡❛'✱ &♣❡❝✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❣❡♥❡'❛❧ &$♦❝❦ ♠❛'❦❡$ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$②✳ ❚❤❡&❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡& ❛'❡ &✉♣♣♦'$❡❞ ❢'♦♠

✇✐$❤✐♥ $❤❡ ❧✐$❡'❛$✉'❡ ❛& &❡$ ♦✉$ ❜❡❧♦✇ ❛♥❞ ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✳ ❚❤❡ ♣'♦①✐❡& &❡❧❡❝$❡❞ $♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ $❤❡

♦✐❧ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞✐❝❡& ❛'❡ &♣❡❝✐✜❝ $♦ ❡❛❝❤ ❝'✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❛& ❢♦❧❧♦✇&✿

✶✳ $❤❡ $'❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ $❤❡ ♣'♦♠♣$✲♠♦♥$❤ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❝♦♥$'❛❝$

✷✳ $❤❡ ✸✵✲❞❛② ❤✐&$♦'✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♦❢ $❤❡ ♣'♦♠♣$✲♠♦♥$❤ ❢✉$✉'❡& ♣'✐❝❡

✸✳ $❤❡ ♣✉$ ❝❛❧❧ '❛$✐♦ ❢♦' ♦♣$✐♦♥& ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ❢✉$✉'❡&

✹✳ ❛♥ ♦✐❧ &♣❡❝✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛$♦'✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② $❤❡ '❛$✐♦ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡'❝✐❛❧ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❛♥❞ ♦♣✲

$✐♦♥& ♣♦&✐$✐♦♥& $♦ ♦✐❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✱ ❛♥❞

✺✳ ❛ ❣❡♦❣'❛♣❤✐❝❛❧❧② ❛♣♣'♦♣'✐❛$❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ✐♥❞❡① ✭❱■❳ ❢♦' ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ $❤❡

✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♦❢ $❤❡ ❊✉'♦ ❙$♦①① ✺✵ ❢♦' ❇'❡♥$✮✳

❱♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ $'❛❞❡& ❛'❡ ✉&❡❞ ❛& ❛ ♣'♦①② ❢♦' ✐♥✈❡&$♦' &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ❜② ❙❝❤❡✐♥❦♠❛♥ ❛♥❞

❳✐♦♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✸✮✱ ❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❙$❡✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ❇❛❦❡' ❛♥❞ ❲✉'❣❧❡' ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ❛♥❞ ❈❛♥❜❛➩ ❛♥❞

❑❛♥❞✙' ✭✷✵✵✾✮✳ ❲❤✐❧❡ ✐$ ✐& ❝❧❡❛' $❤❛$ $❤❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ $'❛❞❡& ✐& ❛ ❞✐'❡❝$ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$

❛❝$✐✈✐$②✱ $❤❡ ❧✐$❡'❛$✉'❡ &❤♦✇& $❤❛$ ✐$ ✐& ❛❧&♦ ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛$♦' ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$✳

❱♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ✐& ❝♦♥&✐❞❡'❡❞ $♦ ❜❡ ❛ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❢❡❛' ❜② ❲❤❛❧❡② ✭✷✵✵✵✮✱ ❤❡♥❝❡

$❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ❛& ❛ &❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ♣'♦①② ❢♦' ❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧✳ ❚❤❡ ♦✐❧✲❜❛&❡❞

✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ✭❖❱❳✮ ✇❛& ♥♦$ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❢♦' $❤❡ ✶✷ ②❡❛'& '❡!✉✐'❡❞✳ ❍❡♥❝❡

$❤❡ ✸✵✲❞❛② ❤✐&$♦'✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ♦❢ $❤❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉$✉'❡& ♣'✐❝❡ ✐& ✉&❡❞✳ ❚❤✐& ✐& ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛$❡❞ ❛& $❤❡

&$❛♥❞❛'❞ ❞❡✈✐❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ $❤❡ ❧♦❣ ♣'✐❝❡ '❡$✉'♥& ❢♦' $❤❡ ♣'❡✈✐♦✉& ✸✵ $'❛❞✐♥❣ ❞❛②& ❢♦' ♣'♦♠♣$

♠♦♥$❤ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❝♦♥$'❛❝$&✳ ❚❤✐'$②✲❞❛② ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$②✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✉&❡& ❛♣♣'♦①✐♠❛$❡❧② $❤❡ ♣'❡✈✐♦✉&

♠♦♥$❤✲❛♥❞✲❛✲❤❛❧❢ ♦❢ ♣'✐❝❡ ❞❛$❛✱ ✇❛& ❝❤♦&❡♥ ❛& ✐$ ✐& ❛ '❡❛&♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♠♣'♦♠✐&❡ ❜❡$✇❡❡♥ $❤❡

♠❡❛&✉'❡♠❡♥$ ♦❢ $❤❡ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ❜❡✐♥❣ ❛❝❝✉'❛$❡ ❛♥❞ ❜❡✐♥❣ ❝✉''❡♥$✳ ❚❤❡ ✈♦❧❛$✐❧✐$② ✜❣✉'❡&

❛'❡ ♦❜$❛✐♥❡❞ ❢'♦♠ ❇❧♦♦♠❜❡'❣ ▲; ❛♥❞ ❛'❡ $❤❡ &❡❝♦♥❞ ♣'♦①②✳

❚❤❡ ♣✉$✲❝❛❧❧ '❛$✐♦ ❤❛& ❜❡❡♥ ✉&❡❞ ❛& ❛ ♠❡❛&✉'❡ ♦❢ ♠❛'❦❡$ ❢❡❛' ✐♥ ❡!✉✐$② '❡&❡❛'❝❤✱ ❢♦'

❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❜② ❇❛$❤✐❛ ❛♥❞ ❇'❡❞✐♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♣✉$✲❝❛❧❧ '❛$✐♦ ❢♦' ♦✐❧ ❢✉$✉'❡& ♦♣$✐♦♥& ✐& $❤❡

$❤✐'❞ ♣'♦①②✳ ❚❤❡ ❞❛$❛ ✉&❡❞ ✐& $❤❡ ❛❣❣'❡❣❛$❡❞ ♦♣❡♥ ✐♥$❡'❡&$ ❢✉$✉'❡& ❢'♦♠ ❇❧♦♦♠❜❡'❣ ▲;✳

❙♣❡❝✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ✇❛& ♠❡❛&✉'❡❞ ❜② ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ❛♥❞ ❇✉♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈❤❡♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ✉&✐♥❣

$❤❡ ❝❤✉'♥ '❛$✐♦✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇❛& $❤❡ '❛$✐♦ ♦❢ $❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡' ♦❢ ❢♦'✇❛'❞& ♦' ❢✉$✉'❡& ❝♦♥$'❛❝$&

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▼❡❛#✉%❡ ❊'✉✐)② +%♦①② ❖✐❧ +%♦①② ❘❡❢❡%❡♥❝❡#

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2%♦❝❦ ♠❛"❦❡%

❱♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢

%"❛❞❡2 ♦❢ ♦✐❧

❢✉%✉"❡2

❙❝❤❡✐♥❦♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✐♦♥❣

✭✷✵✵✸✮

❇❛❦❡" ❛♥❞ ❙%❡✐♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮

❇❛❦❡" ❛♥❞ ❲✉"❣❧❡" ✭✷✵✵✻✮

❈❛♥❜❛➩ ❛♥❞ ❑❛♥❞✙" ✭✷✵✵✾✮

❆22❡%

❱♦❧❛%✐❧✐%②

❱♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ♦❢

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"❡%✉"♥

❱♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ♦❢

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H✉% ❝❛❧❧ "❛%✐♦ ❢♦"

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H✉% ❝❛❧❧ "❛%✐♦

❢♦" ♦✐❧ ♦♣%✐♦♥2

❇❛%❤✐❛ ❛♥❞ ❇"❡❞✐♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮

❙♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ■H❖ ✈♦❧✉♠❡ ❛♥❞

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❘❛%✐♦ ♦❢ ♥♦♥

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%"❛❞✐♥❣ ✈♦❧✉♠❡

%♦ ♦✐❧ ❞❡♠❛♥❞

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❇✉♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈❤❡♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮

❑♦❧♦❞③✐❡❥ ❛♥❞ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥

✭✷✵✶✸✮

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❲❤❛❧❡② ✭✷✵✵✵✱ ✷✵✵✾✮

❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✿ ❈♦♠♣❛+✐-♦♥ ♦❢ 0+♦①✐❡- ❢♦+ ❙❡♥3✐♠❡♥3 ✐♥ 3❤❡ ❊6✉✐3② ▼❛+❦❡3- ❛♥❞ 3❤❡ ❖✐❧ ▼❛+❦❡3-

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♦ ♣❤②%✐❝❛❧ ❞❡❧✐✈❡-②✱ ❤✐% ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ❡❞ ❤❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ %♣❡❝✉❧❛ ✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❤❡ ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ ❡❧❡❝ -✐❝✐ ②

♠❛-❦❡ % -❡%♣❡❝ ✐✈❡❧②✳ ❆ ♠♦-❡ %♣❡❝✐✜❝ ♠❡❛%✉-❡ ✇❛% ❛❧%♦ ✉%❡❞✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② ❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡- ♦❢

♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♣♦%✐ ✐♦♥% ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❈❋❚❈✳ ❚❤✐% ♠❡❛%✉-❡ ✇❛% ✉%❡❞ ❜② ❑♦❧♦❞③✐❡❥

❛♥❞ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ✭❚❤❡ ❯❙ ❈♦♠♠♦❞✐ ② ❋✉ ✉-❡% ❚-❛❞✐♥❣ ❈♦♠♠✐%%✐♦♥ ✭❈❋❚❈✮

❞❡✜♥❡% ❛ ❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ♣♦%✐ ✐♦♥ ❛% ♦♥❡ ❤❡❧❞ ❜② %♦♠❡♦♥❡ ✇❤♦ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡%✱ ♣-♦❝❡%%❡% ♦- %❡❧❧%

❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐ ②✱ ❤✐% ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡% ✉%✐♥❣ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♦ ❤❡❞❣❡ ❛❝ ✉❛❧ ❡①♣♦%✉-❡ ♦ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐ ②

♣-✐❝❡%✳✮ ■♥ ❤✐% ✐♥✈❡% ✐❣❛ ✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❡ ❤❡%❡ ✇♦ ♠❡ ❤♦❞% ❛♥❞ ✉%❡ ❤❡ -❛ ✐♦ ♦❢ ♥♦♥✲

❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❲❚■ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♦ ✇♦-❧❞ ♦✐❧ %✉♣♣❧② ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❯❙ ❉❡♣ ♦❢ ❊♥❡-❣② ❛% ❛ %♣❡❝✉❧❛ ✐♦♥

✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♦- ❢♦- ❲❚■✳ ❆ %✐♠✐❧❛- ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♦- ❢♦- ❇-❡♥ ✐% ❝♦♥% -✉❝ ❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❝♦--❡%♣♦♥❞✐♥❣

❞❛ ❛ ❢-♦♠ ❤❡ ❈❋❚❈ ❢♦- ❇-❡♥ ♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❢✉ ✉-❡% ♣♦%✐ ✐♦♥% ✇❤❡-❡ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞

✐% ❤❡ ❢♦✉- ❤ ♣-♦①②✳ ❆ ❞✐✣❝✉❧ ② ✇✐ ❤ ❤❡ ❞❛ ❛ ✐% ❤❛ ❇-❡♥ ♥♦♥✲❝♦♠♠❡-❝✐❛❧ ❞❛ ❛ ✐%

✉♥❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❜❡❢♦-❡ ❆♣-✐❧ ✷✵✵✽❀ ♦ ♦✈❡-❝♦♠❡ ❤✐% ❤❡ ❲❚■ ❞❛ ❛ ✐% ✉%❡❞ ✐♥ ✐ % ♣❧❛❝❡ ❢-♦♠

❏❛♥✉❛-② ✷✵✵✷ ♦ ▼❛-❝❤ ✷✵✵✽✱ ❤✐% ✐% ❛ -❡❛%♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❛♣♣-♦①✐♠❛ ✐♦♥ ❛% ❤❡ ♣-✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❇-❡♥

❛♥❞ ❲❚■ ✇❡-❡ ✈❡-② ❝❧♦%❡❧② ❛❧✐❣♥❡❞ ❜❡❢♦-❡ ✷✵✶✶✳

❚❤❡ ❱■❳ ✇❛% ✉%❡❞ ❛% ❛ ♣-♦①② ♦❢ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ❜② ❙✐♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❲✐❣❣✐♥% ■■■ ✭✷✵✵✶✮✳ ❱♦❧❛ ✐❧✲

✐ ② ✐♥❞✐❝❡% ❛-❡ ❝♦♥%✐❞❡-❡❞ ♦ ❜❡ ♠❡❛%✉-❡% ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡% ♦- ❢❡❛- ♦- ❛♥①✐❡ ② ✭❲❤❛❧❡②✱ ✷✵✵✵✱

✷✵✵✾✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❱■❳ ✐% ❤❡ ✇❡✐❣❤ ❡❞ ❛✈❡-❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ✈♦❧❛ ✐❧✐ ✐❡% ♦❢ ✜-% ❛♥❞ %❡❝♦♥❞

♠♦♥ ❤ ♦♣ ✐♦♥% ♦♥ ❤❡ ❈❤✐❝❛❣♦ ❇♦❛-❞ ♦❢ ❚-❛❞❡✳ ❲❡ ✉%❡ ❤✐% ♠❡❛%✉-❡ ❛% ❛ ♣-♦①② ✇❤❡♥

❛♥❛❧②%✐♥❣ ❲❚■✳ ❚❤❡ ✈♦❧❛ ✐❧✐ ② ♦❢ ❤❡ ❊✉-♦ ❙ ♦①① ✺✵ ✐♥❞❡① ✭❱✷❳✮ ✐% ✉%❡❞ ❢♦- ❇-❡♥ ✳

❚❤❡ ❊✉-♦ ❙ ♦①① ✺✵ ✐♥❞❡① ✐% ❝♦♠♣-✐%❡❞ ♦❢ ✺✵ ♦❢ ❤❡ ❧❛-❣❡% % ♦❝❦% ✐♥ ❤❡ ❊✉-♦③♦♥❡ ❛♥❞

-❡♣-❡%❡♥ % ♠♦-❡ ❤❛♥ ✺✵✪ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❤❡ ❊✉-♦③♦♥❡ ❡Y✉✐ ✐❡% ❜② ❝❛♣✐ ❛❧✐%❛ ✐♦♥✳ ❊Y✉✐ ② ✐♥❞❡①

✈♦❧❛ ✐❧✐ ② ✐% ❤❡ ✜❢ ❤ ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛❧ ♣-♦①② ❛♥❞ ✐% ❝❤♦%❡♥ ❛% ❛ ♣-♦①② ❢♦- ♦✈❡-❛❧❧ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ✐♥

❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②✳

✷✳✷✳ ❇✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ ❛ *❡♥,✐♠❡♥, ✐♥❞❡① ❜② ♣2✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥, ❛♥❛❧②*✐*

❚❤✐% ✐♥✈❡% ✐❣❛ ✐♦♥ ✉%❡% Z❈❆ ♦ ♣-♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❧✐♥❡❛- ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡%✳ ❚❤❡

✜-% ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ ✐% ❤❡ ❧✐♥❡❛- ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡% ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝❛♣ ✉-❡% ❤❡

♠❛①✐♠✉♠ ✈❛-✐❛♥❝❡ ❝♦♠♣❛-❡❞ ✇✐ ❤ ♦ ❤❡- ❧✐♥❡❛- ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛ ✐♦♥% %✉❜❥❡❝ ♦ ♥♦-♠❛❧✐%❛ ✐♦♥✳

❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ♦✛❡- ✇♦ ❝♦♠♠❡♥ % -❡❣❛-❞✐♥❣ ❤❡ -♦❜✉% ♥❡%% ♦❢ ❤✐% ♠❡ ❤♦❞✿

✜-% ❤❛ ✐ -❡❞✉❝❡% -❡❧✐❛♥❝❡ ♦♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣-♦①✐❡% ✭❡✈❡♥ ❤♦✉❣❤ ♠❡❛%✉-❡❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧❧②

%♦♠❡ ❛-❡ ✈❡-② %✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥ ✮❀ ❛♥❞ %❡❝♦♥❞✱ ❤❛ ❛♥ ✐♥❞❡① ❝♦♥% -✉❝ ❡❞ ❢-♦♠ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ♣-♦①✐❡%

✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡❤❛✈❡ ❛❧♠♦% ✐❞❡♥ ✐❝❛❧❧② ♦ ❤❛ ❢♦-♠❡❞ ❜② Z❈❆✳

❆ ✜-% % ❛❣❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✐% ❝♦♥% -✉❝ ❡❞ ✭❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡-✱ ✷✵✵✻✮ ♦ ❞❡❝✐❞❡

✇❤❡ ❤❡- ♦ ✉%❡ ❡❛❝❤ ♣-♦①②✬% ❝✉--❡♥ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦- ✐ % ✜-% ✐♠❡✲❧❛❣❣❡❞ ✈❛❧✉❡✳ ❚❤✐% ✐% ♦

❛❦❡ ✐♥ ♦ ❝♦♥%✐❞❡-❛ ✐♦♥ ❤❡ ♣♦%%✐❜✐❧✐ ② ❤❛ %♦♠❡ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡% ♠❛② ❜❡ % -♦♥❣❡- ❧❡❛❞✐♥❣

✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♦-% ❤❛♥ ♦ ❤❡-%✳ ❚❤❡ ✜-% % ❛❣❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✐% ❤❡ ✜-% ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ ♦❢ ❛❧❧ ❤❡

❝✉--❡♥ ❛♥❞ ✜-% ❧❛❣% ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①✐❡%✳ ❋♦- ❡❛❝❤ ♣-♦①② ❤❡ ❝♦--❡❧❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ❝✉--❡♥ ✈❛❧✉❡

✇✐ ❤ ❤❡ ✜-% % ❛❣❡ ✐♥❞❡① ❛♥❞ ❤❡ ❝♦--❡❧❛ ✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❡ ♣-♦①②✬% ✜-% ❧❛❣ ✇✐ ❤ ❤❡ ✜-% % ❛❣❡

✐♥❞❡① ❛-❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❧❛-❣❡- ✈❛❧✉❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡% ✇❤❡ ❤❡- ❤❡ ❝✉--❡♥ ♦- ✜-% ❧❛❣ ✐% ❝❤♦%❡♥

♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ ❤❡ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❡%✳ ❚❤❡ %❡❧❡❝ ❡❞ ♣-♦①✐❡% ❛-❡ ❤❡♥ ✉%❡❞ ✐♥ ❛ %❡❝♦♥❞ Z❈❆

% ❛❣❡✱ ❤❡ ✜-% ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥ ♦❢ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐% ❞❡✜♥❡❞ ♦ ❜❡ ❤❡ %❡♥ ✐♠❡♥ ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦-

❤❡ ❝-✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ✐♥ Y✉❡% ✐♦♥✳

✼

ACC

EPTE

D M

ANU

SCR

IPT

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

❚❤❡ #❡$✉❧'$ ♦❢ '❤❡ *❈❆ ❜❛$❡❞ ♦✐❧ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ❝♦♥$'#✉❝'✐♦♥ ♣#♦❝❡$$❡$ ❛#❡ $✉♠♠❛#✐$❡❞

✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✳ ❚❤✉$ ❢♦# ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇#❡♥' '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛#❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛'❡❞ ❛$ ❢♦❧❧♦✇$✱

WTI Sentimentt = 0.36Trading V olumet−1− 0.44WTI V olatilityt− 0.53PutCall Ratiot−1

+0.59Spec WTIt − 0.22V IXt−1 ✭✷✳✶✮

BrentSentimentt = 0.19TradingV olumet−1−0.63BrentV olatilityt+0.06PutCallRatiot−1

0.46Spec Brentt − 0.60V olatility of Stoxxt−1 ✭✷✳✷✮

✇❤❡#❡ WTI ♦# Brent V olatility ✐$ '❤❡ ✸✵✲❞❛② ❤✐$'♦#✐❝❛❧ ✈♦❧❛'✐❧✐'② ♦❢ ❲❚■ ♦# ❇#❡♥' ❛♥❞

Spec WTI ♦# Spec Brent ✐$ '❤❡ $♣❡❝✉❧❛'✐♦♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛'♦# ❢♦# ❡❛❝❤ ♦✐❧✳ ❚❤❡ *❈❆ ♣#♦❝❡$$

❝❛❧❝✉❧❛'❡$ '❤❡ #❛'✐♦ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥'$ ✇❤✐❝❤ ♠❛①✐♠✐$❡$ ✈❛#✐❛♥❝❡ $✉❜❥❡❝' '♦ '❤❡ $✉♠ ♦❢

'❤❡ $C✉❛#❡❞ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣$ ❜❡✐♥❣ ♦♥❡✳

❲❛♥❣ ✭✷✵✵✶✮ $❤♦✇❡❞ '❤❛' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ❢#♦♠ $♣❡❝✉❧❛'♦#$ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❞❣❡#$ ❞✐❞ ❝♦♥'❛✐♥ ✉$❡✲

❢✉❧ ✐♥❢♦#♠❛'✐♦♥ #❡❣❛#❞✐♥❣ '❤❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥'$ ♦❢ ❛❣#✐❝✉❧'✉#❛❧ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐'② ♣#✐❝❡$ ❜✉' '❤❛'

$❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ❢#♦♠ $♠❛❧❧ '#❛❞❡#$ ✇❛$ ♥♦' ✉$❡❢✉❧✳ ■' ✐$ ❝♦♥❥❡❝'✉#❡❞ ❤❡#❡ '❤❛' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥'

✐♥ '❤❡ ♣#♦❢❡$$✐♦♥❛❧❧②✲'#❛❞❡❞ ♦✐❧ ♠❛#❦❡'$ ✐$ ✉$❡❢✉❧ ❛$ '❤❡ ✈❛$' ♠❛❥♦#✐'② ♦❢ '❤❡ '#❛❞❡#$ ✐♥

'❤❡ ❡♥❡#❣② ♠❛#❦❡'$ ❛#❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② ✐♥❢♦#♠❡❞ ♣#♦❢❡$$✐♦♥❛❧$✳ ❲❤❡♥ ❇❛❦❡# ❛♥❞ ❲✉#❣❧❡# ✭✷✵✵✻✮✱

▲❡♠♠♦♥ ❛♥❞ *♦#'♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛ ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❛♥❞ ❈❤✉♥❣✱ ❍✉♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❨❡❤ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ❡①❛♠✐♥❡❞ '❤❡ $'♦❝❦

♠❛#❦❡'$ '❤❡② ✉$❡❞ ❛♥ ♦#'❤♦❣♦♥❛❧✐$❛'✐♦♥ ♣#♦❝❡❞✉#❡ '♦ #❡♠♦✈❡ ❢#♦♠ '❤❡ ❡C✉✐'② $❡♥'✐♠❡♥'

♣#♦①✐❡$ ❛♥②'❤✐♥❣ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❛''#✐❜✉'❡❞ '♦ '❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝②❝❧❡✳ ❚❤✐$ ♣#♦❝❡❞✉#❡ ❡❢✲

❢❡❝'✐✈❡❧② ♣#♦❞✉❝❡❞ ❛♥ ✐♥❞❡① ✇❤✐❝❤ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡❞ ❤❡❛✈✐❧② ♦♥ '❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝②❝❧❡

✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$✳ ■♥ ♦#❞❡# '♦ ❝❛♣'✉#❡ '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛#❦❡'$✱ '❤✐$ ♦#'❤♦❣♦♥❛❧✐$❛'✐♦♥

$'❡♣ ✐$ ♥♦' ❝❛##✐❡❞ ♦✉'✳ ❚❤✐$ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ❦❡❡♣$ '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛♥❞ '❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧

✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥' ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♦'❤❡#✳ ❚❤✐$ ❛♣♣#♦❛❝❤ ✐$ ❛#❣✉❡❞ '♦ ❜❡ #❡❛$♦♥❛❜❧❡ ❞✉❡ '♦

'❤❡#❡ ❜❡✐♥❣ ✐♥$✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥' ♦# ❧♦✇ ❝♦##❡❧❛'✐♦♥ ❜❡'✇❡❡♥ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛♥❞ '❤❡

❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$ ✭❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✮✳ ❚❤✐$ ✜♥❞✐♥❣ ❛❧$♦ #❡❢✉'❡$ ❛ ❝#✐'✐❝✐$♠ '❤❛' '❤❡ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥'

✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛#❡ ❡✛❡❝'✐✈❡ ❜❡❝❛✉$❡ '❤❡② ❝❛♣'✉#❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✐♥❢♦#♠❛'✐♦♥✳

✷✳✸✳ ❚❤❡ &❡♥(✐♠❡♥( ✐♥❞✐❝❡& ❢♦/ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇/❡♥(

❋✐❣✉#❡ ✷✳✶ ♣❧♦'$ '❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇#❡♥' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛$ ✇❡❧❧ ❛$ '❤❡ ❧♦❣ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❲❚■

❛♥❞ ❇#❡♥' ♣#✐❝❡ $❡#✐❡$✳ ■' ✐$ $❡❡♥ '❤❛' '❤❡ ❇#❡♥' $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞❡① ✐$ C✉✐'❡ $✐♠✐❧❛# '♦ '❤❛'

♦❢ ❲❚■ ✇✐'❤ ❜♦'❤ $❤♦✇✐♥❣ ❛ ❣❡♥❡#❛❧ ✉♣✇❛#❞ '#❡♥❞ ♦✈❡# '❤❡ ♣❡#✐♦❞✳ ■♥ ❛❞❞✐'✐♦♥ ❜♦'❤

❤❛✈❡ ❛ $❡✈❡#❡ ❞✐♣ ❞✉#✐♥❣ '❤❡ ♣❡#✐♦❞ ♦❢ #❛♣✐❞ ♦✐❧ ♣#✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✽✳

❚❛❜❧❡ ✸ $❤♦✇$ '❤❛' '❤❡#❡ ✐$ ❧♦✇ ♦# ✐♥$✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥' ❝♦##❡❧❛'✐♦♥ ❜❡'✇❡❡♥ '❤❡ ✜#$' ❞✐❢✲

❢❡#❡♥❝❡$ ♦❢ '❤❡ '✇♦ $❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛♥❞ '❤❡ ✜#$' ❞✐✛❡#❡♥❝❡$ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❦❡② ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧

✈❛#✐❛❜❧❡$ '❤❛' ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❝♦♥$✐❞❡# ✐♥ '❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♣#✐❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧$✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ❞❡✜♥❡❞

❧❛'❡# ✐♥ ❊C✳✸✳✶ ❛♥❞ ❊C✳✸✳✷✳ ❚❤✐$ ❞❡♠♦♥$'#❛'❡$ '❤❛' '❤❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❡$ ❛#❡ ♥♦' $✐♠♣❧② ❝❛♣'✉#✐♥❣

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✐♥❢♦$♠❛'✐♦♥ ❢$♦♠ '❤❡*❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡* ❜✉' ❛$❡ ❛❧*♦ ❜$✐♥❣✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦$♠❛'✐♦♥

'♦ '❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❆* '❤✐* ✐♥❢♦$♠❛'✐♦♥ ✐* ❡①'$❛❝'❡❞ ❢$♦♠ ♣$♦①✐❡* ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ♦♥ ❝❤❛♥♥❡❧* ♦❢

*❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥ ❡7✉✐'② ♠❛$❦❡'*✱ ✐' ✐* $❡❛*♦♥❛❜❧② ❛$❣✉❡❞ '❤❛' '❤❡ ♦✐❧ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡* ❛$❡

♠❡❛*✉$✐♥❣ ♦✐❧ ♠❛$❦❡' *❡♥'✐♠❡♥'✳

❲❚■ ❇$❡♥'

❈✉$$❡♥' ✭'✮

♦$ ▲❛❣ ✭'✲✶✮

▲♦❛❞✐♥❣

❈✉$$❡♥' ✭'✮

♦$ ▲❛❣ ✭'✲✶✮

▲♦❛❞✐♥❣

❚$❛❞✐♥❣ ❱♦❧✉♠❡ ' ✲ ✶ ✵✳✸✻ ' ✲ ✶ ✵✳✶✾

✸✵✲❉❛② ❱♦❧❛'✐❧✐'② ' ✲✵✳✹✹ ' ✲✵✳✻✸

;✉' ❈❛❧❧ ❘❛'✐♦ ' ✲ ✶ ✲✵✳✺✸ ' ✲ ✶ ✵✳✵✻

❙♣❡❝✉❧❛'✐♦♥

■♥❞✐❝❛'♦$

' ✵✳✺✾ ' ✵✳✹✻

❱■❳ ✴ ❱✷❳ ' ✲ ✶ ✲✵✳✷✷ ' ✲ ✶ ✲✵✳✻✵

❱❛$✐❛♥❝❡

❊①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞

✸✸✪ ✷✼✪

❚❤❡ #❛❜❧❡ '❤♦✇' #❤❡ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣' ❢/♦♠ #❤❡ ♣/✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ❛♥❛❧②'✐' ♦❢ #❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇/❡♥# '❡♥#✐♠❡♥#

♣/♦①✐❡'✳ ❚❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❝✉//❡♥# ✭#✮ ♦/ ✜/'# ❧❛❣ ✭#✲✶✮ ✐' ♠❛❞❡ ✉'✐♥❣ #❤❡ ♠❡#❤♦❞ ♦❢ ❇❛❦❡/ ❛♥❞ ❲✉/❣❧❡/

✭✷✵✵✻✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❧✐♥❡❛/ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛#✐♦♥ ♦❢ #❤❡'❡ ♣/♦①✐❡' ✇✐#❤ #❤❡✐/ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣' ✐' #❤❡ ✜/'# ♣/✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥#

❢♦/ ❡❛❝❤ '❡# ♦❢ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ♣/♦①✐❡'✳ ❚❤✐' ✜/'# ♣/✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ✐' #❤❡ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦/ ❡❛❝❤ ❝/✉❞❡

♦✐❧✳ ❚❤❡ ♣❡/❝❡♥#❛❣❡ ♦❢ ✈❛/✐❛♥❝❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② #❤✐' ✜/'# ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥# ✐' ❧✐'#❡❞✳ ❱✷❳ ✐' #❤❡ ✈♦❧❛#✐❧✐#② ✐♥❞❡①

❜❛'❡❞ ♦♥ #❤❡ ❊✉/♦ ❙#♦①① ✺✵✳

❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✿ J❈❆ ❧♦❛❞✐♥❣' ❢♦/ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇/❡♥# ❖✐❧ ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❡'✳

✸✳ ❚❡$%✐♥❣ ❢*❛♠❡✇♦*❦

❚♦ '❡*' ✇❤❡'❤❡$ ❝❤❛♥❣❡* ✐♥ '❤❡ ♦✐❧ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡* ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ♣$✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥'* ✐♥

♣$♦♠♣'✲♠♦♥'❤ ❢✉'✉$❡* ❝♦♥'$❛❝'* ❢♦$ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥'✱ ❛ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦$ '❤❡*❡

❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧* ✐* ♣$♦♣♦*❡❞ ❛♥❞ '❡*'❡❞ ✉*✐♥❣ ❛ ♠✉❧'✐✈❛$✐❛'❡ $❡❣$❡**✐♦♥✳ ❚❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦

♠♦❞❡❧ ✐* *♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❝❤♦*❡♥ '♦ ❝❛♣'✉$❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ $❛'❤❡$ '❤❛♥ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡*

♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡*✳ ❚❤❡ ♦✐❧ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞✐❝❡* ❛$❡ ❛❞❞❡❞ '♦ '❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦$ ❡❛❝❤

❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ '❤❡ ❡①'❡♥❞❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧* ❛$❡ '❡*'❡❞ ❛❣❛✐♥✳ ❈❤❛♥❣❡* ✐♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣❡$❢♦$♠❛♥❝❡

❛$❡ ♠❡❛*✉$❡❞ ✉*✐♥❣ '❤❡ ✐♥❢♦$♠❛❧ ❛❞❥✉*'❡❞ ❘

2♠❡❛*✉$❡ ❛♥❞ ✈❛$✐❛♥❝❡ $❛'✐♦ '❡*'*✱ ❛❧♦♥❣

✇✐'❤ ❢♦$♠❛❧ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ $❛'✐♦ '❡*'*✳ ❆ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦$ ❜♦'❤ ♦✐❧* ✐* ✉*❡❞ *♦ '❤❛' ❛ ❢❛✐$

❝♦♠♣❛$✐*♦♥ ♠❛② ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ♦❢ '❤❡ ❡✛❡❝' ♦❢ '❤❡ *❡♥'✐♠❡♥' ✐♥❞❡① ♦♥ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥' ❝$✉❞❡

♦✐❧*✳

✸✳✶✳ ❇❡♥❝❤♠❛*❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ /♣❡❝✐✜❝❛3✐♦♥

❇❡♥❝❤♠❛$❦ ♠♦❞❡❧* ❢♦$ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥' ❛$❡ ♣$♦♣♦*❡❞ ❛' ♠♦♥'❤❧② ❢$❡7✉❡♥❝② ✉*✐♥❣ '❤❡

❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥'❛❧ ✈❛$✐❛❜❧❡*✿

✶✳ ❊7✉✐'② ✐♥❞✐❝❡*✿ ❙✫T ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉$♦ ❙'♦①①✱ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ❛♥❞ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣

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∆❲❚■ ❙❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ■♥❞❡① ∆❇,❡♥& ❙❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ■♥❞❡①

△SP500 ✵✳✸✼ ✵✳✶✵

∆Euro Stoxx ✵✳✸✻ ✲✵✳✵✺

∆Nikkei ✵✳✸✶ ✵✳✶✵

∆Hang Seng ✵✳✷✼ ✵✳✷✶

∆USDEUR ✲✵✳✷✵ ✲✵✳✷✹

∆USDJPY ✵✳✶✹ ✵✳✵✶

∆USDHKD ✲✵✳✵✺ ✵✳✵✸

∆BDI ✲✵✳✵✶ ✵✳✶✹

∆Moody ✲✵✳✶✵ ✲✵✳✵✸

∆US Oil Inventory ✵✳✵✺ ✵✳✵✵

∆World Oil Supply ✲✵✳✵✻ ✲✵✳✵✾

∆OPEC Surplus ✵✳✶✹ ✵✳✶✸

∆OPEC Proportion ✲✵✳✶✽ ✵✳✵✾

❚❤❡ &❛❜❧❡ 1❤♦✇1 &❤❡ ❝♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥1 ❜❡&✇❡❡♥ &❤❡ ✜,1& ❞✐✛❡,❡♥❝❡1 ♦❢ &❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡1✱ ❛♥❞ &❤❡

✜,1& ❞✐✛❡,❡♥❝❡1 ♦❢ &❤❡ 1❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ✐♥❞✐❝❡1 ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥& ❝,✉❞❡ ♦✐❧1✳ ❚❤❡1❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡1

❛,❡ ✉1❡❞ ✐♥ &❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♠♦❞❡❧1 ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡✳ ❚❤❡ ,❡1✉❧&1 ❛,❡ ❣❡♥❡,❛❧❧② ✈❡,② ❧♦✇ ❝♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥ ✇✐&❤ ✶✽ ♦❢

&❤❡ ✷✻ ❝♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥1 ❜❡❧♦✇ &❤❡ ✺✪ 1✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✵✳✶✻✹✷✳ ❚❤❡ 1❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦, ❲❚■ ✐1 ✇❡❛❦❧②

❝♦,,❡❧❛&❡❞ ✇✐&❤ &❤❡ 1&♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡1 ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐1 ❡①♣❡❝&❡❞ ❛1 &❤❡ ❯❙ ✐1 ❛ ❧❛,❣❡, ♦✐❧ ♣,♦❞✉❝❡, &❤❛♥ ❊✉,♦♣❡✳

❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✿ ❈♦,,❡❧❛&✐♦♥ ❚❛❜❧❡✿ ❙❡♥&✐♠❡♥& ■♥❞✐❝❡1 ❛♥❞ ❋✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ ❇❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ❱❛,✐❛❜❧❡1

✷✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙✩ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ 7❛8❡ ❢♦7 8❤❡ ❊✉7♦✱ 8❤❡ ❏❛♣❛♥❡@❡ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞ 8❤❡ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛7

✸✳ ❇❛❧8✐❝ ❉7② ■♥❞❡①

✹✳ ❈♦7♣♦7❛8❡ ❜♦♥❞ 7❛8❡@✱ ✇❤❡7❡ ✇❡ @♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❝♦♥@✐❞❡7 ▼♦♦❞②✬@ ❆❛❛ ❝♦7♣♦7❛8❡ ❜♦♥❞

7❛8❡

✺✳ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥8♦7② ❛♥❞ ❲♦7❧❞ ♦✐❧ @✉♣♣❧②

✻✳ ❖U❊❈✬@ ♣7♦♣♦78✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦7❧❞ ♣7♦❞✉❝8✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❖U❊❈✬@ @♣❛7❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐8②✳

❲❡ ❝❤♦♦@❡ ❛ @❡❧❡❝8✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡V✉✐8② ✐♥❞✐❝❡@✱ ❢7♦♠ 8❤❡ ❯❙ ✭✇♦7❧❞✬@ ❧❛7❣❡@8 ♦✐❧ ❝♦♥@✉♠❡7✮✱ 8❤❡

❊✉7♦③♦♥❡ ✭✷♥❞✮✱ ❈❤✐♥❛ ✭✸7❞✮ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♣❛♥ ✭✹8❤✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ 8♦❣❡8❤❡7 ❛❝❝♦✉♥8❡❞ ❢♦7 ✺✵✪ ♦❢ ✇♦7❧❞

♦✐❧ ❝♦♥@✉♠♣8✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✷✵✶✷ ✭❯❙ ❊♥❡7❣② ■♥❢♦7♠❛8✐♦♥ ❆❞♠✐♥✐@87❛8✐♦♥✮✳ ❚❤❡@❡ 7❡❣✐♦♥@ ❛7❡

7❡♣7❡@❡♥8❡❞ ✐♥ ♦✉7 8❡@8✐♥❣ ❜② ❙✫U ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉7♦❙8♦①① ✺✵✱ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ❛♥❞ 8❤❡ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ @8♦❝❦

✐♥❞✐❝❡@✳ ❚❤❡7❡ ✐@ ❛❜✉♥❞❛♥8 ❧✐8❡7❛8✉7❡ ❛❞❞7❡@@✐♥❣ 8❤❡ ✐♥8❡7❛❝8✐♦♥@ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡@ ❛♥❞ @8♦❝❦

♣7✐❝❡@✳ ❏♦♥❡@ ❛♥❞ ❑❛✉❧ ✭✶✾✾✻✮ ❤❛✈❡ 7❡♣♦78❡❞ ♥❡❣❛8✐✈❡ ❝♦✲♠♦✈❡♠❡♥8@ ♦❢ @8♦❝❦ ♣7✐❝❡@ ✐♥

7❡@♣♦♥@❡ 8♦ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡ @❤♦❝❦@ ❜❡8✇❡❡♥ ✶✾✹✼ ❛♥❞ ✶✾✾✶✱ ❛❧8❤♦✉❣❤ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ✜♥❞

8❤❛8 ❢7♦♠ ✷✵✵✹ 8♦ ✷✵✵✾ 8❤❡ ❙✫U ✺✵✵ ❞✐❞ ♥♦8 ♣7♦✈✐❞❡ ❛ @✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥8 ❡①♣❧❛♥❛8✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✐❧

♣7✐❝❡@✳ ❩❤❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ▲✐ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ❤❛✈❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ ❝❧♦@❡ ❝♦77❡❧❛8✐♦♥@ ❜❡8✇❡❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡@ ❛♥❞ ❡V✉✐8②

✐♥❞✐❝❡@✱ ✇✐8❤ 8❤❡ @✐❣♥@ ♦❢ 8❤❡ ❝♦77❡❧❛8✐♦♥ ❛❧✇❛②@ ♣♦@✐8✐✈❡✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐@ ❛❧@♦ 8❤❡ ❝❛@❡ ❤❡7❡✳

❚❤❡7❡ ❤❛@ ❜❡❡♥ @♦♠❡ ❞❡❜❛8❡ ❝♦♥❝❡7♥✐♥❣ 8❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❆@✐❛♥ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡@ ✭@❡❡

▲✐ ❛♥❞ ▲✐♥ ✷✵✶✶✱ ❇❡✐7♥❡ ❡8 ❛❧✳ ✷✵✶✸ ❛♥❞ ❆❧V✉✐@8 ❛♥❞ ●❡7✈❛✐@ ✷✵✶✸✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ @✉♣♣♦78@ 8❤❡

✐♥❝❧✉@✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❏❛♣❛♥❡@❡ @8♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡@✳ ■8 ✐@ ❝❧❡❛7 8❤❛8 8❤❡7❡ ✐@ ❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡①

7❡❧❛8✐♦♥@❤✐♣ ❜❡8✇❡❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣7✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡V✉✐8② ♣7✐❝❡@ ❛♥❞ ❤❡♥❝❡ @8♦❝❦ ♠❛7❦❡8@ ♠✉@8 ❜❡ ♣❛78

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2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Ln_WTI

Ln_Brent

BrentNRGi

WTINRGi

❋✐❣✉$❡ ✷✳✶✿ ▲♦❣ ♦❢ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇$❡♥4 ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ 4❤❡✐$ ❙❡♥4✐♠❡♥4 ■♥❞✐❝❡7

♦❢ "❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥"❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛❜❧❡1 S&P 500t, Stoxx 50t, NKYt, Hang Sengt❛.❡ "❤❡ ❙✫4 ✺✵✵✱ ❊✉.♦ ❙"♦①① ✺✵✱ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ❛♥❞ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ 1"♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡1✳

❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈③✉❞❛❥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮ ❤❛✈❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ "❤❛" ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❞♦❧❧❛. ❞❡♣.❡❝✐❛"✐♦♥ ❝❛✉1❡1

♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡ ✐♥❝.❡❛1❡✳ ❇.❛❤♠❛1.❡♥❡✱ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❙✐11♦❦♦ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ✜♥❞ "❤❛" ❯❙ ❡①✲

❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛"❡1 ●.❛♥❣❡. ❝❛✉1❡ ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡1 ✐♥ "❤❡ 1❤♦." .✉♥✱ ❛❧"❤♦✉❣❤ ❘❡❜♦.❡❞♦ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✜♥❞1

"❤❛" ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛"❡ ✐♥"❡.❛❝"✐♦♥ ✐1 ✇❡❛❦✳ ❚❤❡1❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣1 ❛♥❞ "❤❡ 1❡❧❡❝✲

"✐♦♥ ♦❢ 1"♦❝❦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡1 ❧❡❛❞ "♦ "❤❡ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ♦❢ "❤❡ ❯❙ ❉♦❧❧❛. ❛❣❛✐♥1" "❤❡ ❊✉.♦✱ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞

❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛. ❛1 "❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛"❡1 ❢♦. "❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛.❦ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ❚❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛❜❧❡1

USDEURt, USDJPYt ❛♥❞ USDHKDt ❛.❡ "❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡1 ♦❢ ✩✶❯❙ ❡①♣.❡11❡❞ ✐♥ ❊✉.♦✱

❨❡♥ ♦. ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❉♦❧❧❛.1✳

❚❤❡ ❇❛❧"✐❝ ❉.② ■♥❞❡① ✇❤✐❝❤ ".❛❝❦1 "❤❡ ❝♦1" ♦❢ 1❤✐♣♣✐♥❣ ❣♦♦❞1 ❛❝.♦11 "❤❡ ♦❝❡❛♥1 ✐1

✉1❡❞ ❛1 ❛♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛"♦. ♦❢ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ✐♥❞✉1".✐❛❧ ♣.♦❞✉❝"✐♦♥ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ▼✐"❝❤❡❧❧ ❡" ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮✱

❋.❛❧❡ ❡" ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✮✱ ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮✱ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✳ ❆ ❝.✐"✐❝✐1♠

♦❢ ✉1✐♥❣ "❤❡ ❇❉■ ✐1 "❤❛" ✐" ✐1 ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡❞ ❜② ❢✉❡❧ ❝♦1"1✱ ❛♥❞ 1♦ ✐1 ❛♥ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉1 ✈❛.✐❛❜❧❡✳

❚❤✐1 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ ✐1 ❛❞❞.❡11❡❞ ❜② ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ✇❤♦ 1"❛"❡1 "❤❛" "❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛"✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❇❉■ .❛"❡1

✐1 ♠✉❝❤ ❧❛.❣❡. "❤❛♥ "❤❡ ✈❛.✐❛"✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❜✉♥❦❡. ❢✉❡❧ ❝♦1"1✱ ❛♥❞ 1♦ "❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ "❤❡

❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐"② ✐1 ♥♦" ✐♠♣♦."❛♥"✳ BDIt ✐1 "❤❡ ❇❛❧"✐❝ ❉.② ✐♥❞❡① ♦❢ 1❤✐♣♣✐♥❣ ❝♦1"1✳

▼♦♦❞②✬1 ❆❛❛ ❝♦.♣♦.❛"❡ ❜♦♥❞ .❛"❡ ✐1 ✉1❡❞ ❜❡❝❛✉1❡ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ 1✉❣❣❡1"1 "❤❛"

1✐♥❝❡ ❡①".❛❝"✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ✐1 ❛ ❝❛♣✐"❛❧✲✐♥"❡♥1✐✈❡ ❜✉1✐♥❡11✱ "❤❡ ❝♦1" ♦❢ ❝❛♣✐"❛❧ 1❤♦✉❧❞ ❜❡

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▼❡❛♥ ❙%❞ ❉❡✈ ❙❦❡✇ ❊① ❑✉/%

❲❚■ ✵✳✵✶✶ ✵✳✵✾✶ ✲✵✳✼✾✼ ✷✳✵✸✵

❇/❡♥% ✵✳✵✶✷ ✵✳✵✽✻ ✲✵✳✾✸✾ ✸✳✶✹✽

❙✫@ ✺✵✵ ✵✳✵✵✸ ✵✳✵✹✺ ✲✵✳✾✹✶ ✶✳✾✹✼

❙%♦①① ✺✵ ✲✵✳✵✵✶ ✵✳✵✺✼ ✲✵✳✼✻✹ ✶✳✸✵✶

◆✐❦❦❡✐ ✵✳✵✵✸ ✵✳✵✺✽ ✲✵✳✾✶✵ ✷✳✺✶✹

❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ✵✳✵✵✺ ✵✳✵✻✷ ✲✵✳✼✽✶ ✷✳✵✻✻

❯❙❉ ❊✉/♦ ✲✵✳✵✵✸ ✵✳✵✸✶ ✵✳✹✸✼ ✶✳✸✵✽

❯❙❉ ❨❡♥ ✲✵✳✵✵✷ ✵✳✵✷✼ ✵✳✸✸✽ ✵✳✸✻✾

❯❙❉ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❉♦❧❧❛/ ✵✳✵✵✵ ✵✳✵✵✶ ✲✵✳✾✵✹ ✺✳✻✶✹

❇❉■ ✵✳✵✵✻ ✵✳✷✹✾ ✲✶✳✹✺✸ ✻✳✻✷✹

❇♦♥❞ ❘❛%❡ ✲✵✳✵✵✷ ✵✳✵✸✼ ✲✵✳✼✷✻ ✹✳✾✵✾

❯❙ ❖✐❧ ■♥✈❡♥%♦/② ✵✳✵✵✶ ✵✳✵✸✵ ✲✵✳✷✷✵ ✲✵✳✶✷✷

❲♦/❧❞ ❖✐❧ ❙✉♣♣❧② ✵✳✵✵✶ ✵✳✵✵✼ ✲✵✳✵✽✹ ✶✳✷✺✽

❖@❊❈ ❙♣❛/❡ ❈❛♣❛❝✐%② ✲✵✳✵✵✽ ✵✳✶✼✵ ✲✶✳✻✻✽ ✶✷✳✸✽✸

❖@❊❈ @/♦♣♦/%✐♦♥ ✵✳✵✵✵ ✵✳✵✶✸ ✲✵✳✸✸✼ ✷✳✻✹✵

❚❤❡ #❛❜❧❡ '❤♦✇' ❞❡'❝,✐♣#✐✈❡ '#❛#✐'#✐❝' ❢♦, ❧♦❣ ,❡#✉,♥' ❞❛#❛ ✉'❡❞ ✐♥ #❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦ ♠♦❞❡❧'✳ ❚❤❡ ❞❛#❛ ✐'

❢,♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛,② ✷✵✵✷ #♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡, ✷✵✶✸ ✭◆ ❂ ✶✹✹ ♠♦♥#❤'✮✳ ❚❤❡ ♣,✐❝❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ ♣,♦♠♣# ♠♦♥#❤ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞

❇,❡♥# ❝,✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ❢✉#✉,❡' ❝♦♥#,❛❝#' ❛,❡ ✐♥ ❯❙✩ ♣❡, ❜❛,,❡❧✳ ❈♦,♣♦,❛#❡ ❇♦♥❞ ,❛#❡ ✐' ▼♦♦❞②✬' ❆❛❛ ,❛#❡✳

✬❙#❞ ❉❡✈✬ ✐' '#❛♥❞❛,❞ ❞❡✈✐❛#✐♦♥✱ ✬❙❦❡✇✬ ✐' '❦❡✇♥❡'' ❛♥❞ ✬❊① ❑✉,#✬ ✐' ❡①❝❡'' ❦✉,#♦'✐'✳

❚❛❜❧❡ ✹✿ ❉❡'❝,✐♣#✐✈❡ ❙#❛#✐'#✐❝'

❡✢❡❝$❡❞ ✐♥ $❤❡ ♣ ✐❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✐❧✱ ❛♥❞ $❤❛$ /✐♥❝❡ ♦✐❧ ❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡/ ❛ ❡ ❤✐❣❤❧② ❛$❡❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥

✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✉/❡/ $❤❡ ❆❛❛ ❛$❡✳ Corp Bondt ✐/ ▼♦♦❞②✬/ ❆❛❛ ❝♦ ♣♦ ❛$❡ ❜♦♥❞ ❛$❡✳

❋♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ $❤❡ ❜❛/✐❝ ❧❛✇ ♦❢ /✉♣♣❧② ❛♥❞ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✱ $❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥$♦ ② ❛♥❞ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♦✐❧

/✉♣♣❧② ❢ ♦♠ $❤❡ ❯❙ ❉❡♣$ ♦❢ ❊♥❡ ❣② ✭❉❖❊✮ ❛ ❡ ❛❧/♦ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞✳ US Oil Inventoryt ✐/ $❤❡

❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥$♦ ②✱ World Oil Supplyt ✐/ $❤❡ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♦✐❧ /✉♣♣❧②✳

❚❤❡ ♣ ♦♣♦ $✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♦✐❧ $❤❛$ ✐/ ♣ ♦❞✉❝❡❞ ❜② ❖H❊❈ ❤❛/ ❜❡❡♥ ❢♦✉♥❞ $♦ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦✐❧

♣ ✐❝❡/ ❜② ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✱ ▲✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐/ ✭✷✵✶✵✮ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳ ❚❤✐/ ✇♦✉❧❞

♦❝❝✉ ❞✉❡ $♦ ♠❛ ❦❡$ ♣♦✇❡ ✳ ❆❧/♦ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞ ✐/ $❤❡ ❞✐✛❡ ❡♥❝❡ ❜❡$✇❡❡♥ ❖H❊❈✬/ ❡/$✐♠❛$❡❞

❝❛♣❛❝✐$② ❛♥❞ $❤❡ ♣ ♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥ ❛/ $❤✐/ ❡♣ ❡/❡♥$/ $❤❡ ❞❡❝✐/✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❖H❊❈ ♣ ♦❞✉❝❡ / $♦

❡/$ ✐❝$ /✉♣♣❧②✳ OPECSpareCapacityt ❛♥❞ OPECPropt ❛ ❡ $❤❡ ❖H❊❈ /♣❛ ❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐$②

❛♥❞ ❖H❊❈ ♣ ♦♣♦ $✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✇♦ ❧❞ ♣ ♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥✳

❇❛/❡❞ ♦♥ $❤❡ ❛❜♦✈❡ ❛ ❣✉♠❡♥$/✱ $❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛ ❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇ ❡♥$ ❝ ✉❞❡

♦✐❧ ❛ ❡ /❡$ ♦✉$ ✐♥ ❊Q✳ ✸✳✶✳ ❇❡❢♦ ❡ ✉♥♥✐♥❣ $❤❡ ❡❣ ❡//✐♦♥/✱ ❛❧❧ $❤❡ ❞❛$❛ ❛ ❡ ❧♦❣ $ ❛♥/✲

❢♦ ♠❡❞✱ ✜ /$✲❞✐✛❡ ❡♥❝❡❞✱ /$❛♥❞❛ ❞✐/❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❝❤❡❝❦❡❞ ❢♦ /$❛$✐♦♥❛ ✐$② ✉/✐♥❣ ❆✉❣♠❡♥$❡❞

❉✐❝❦❡② ❋✉❧❧❡ ✭❆❉❋✮ $❡/$/ ✇❤✐❝❤ /❤♦✇ $❤❡ ❧♦❣ ❡$✉ ♥/ ♦❢ $❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥$❛❧ ✈❛ ✐❛❜❧❡/ ❛♥❞

/❡♥$✐♠❡♥$ ✐♥❞✐❝❡/ $♦ ❜❡ /$❛$✐♦♥❛ ②✳ ❉❡/❝ ✐♣$✐✈❡ /$❛$✐/$✐❝/ ❛ ❡ ❣✐✈❡♥ ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✹✳ ❚❤❡

❜❡♥❝❤♠❛ ❦ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐/ ❣✐✈❡♥ ✐♥ ❊Q✳ ✸✳✶✿

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Oilt = α + β1S&P 500t + β2Stoxx 50t + β3NKYt + β4Hang Sengt,

+β5USDEURt + β6USDJPYt + β7USDHKDt ++β8BDIt

+β9Corp Bondt + β10US Oil Inventoryt + β11World Oil Supplyt

+β12OPEC Spare Capacityt + β13OPEC Propt + εt ✭✸✳✶✮

✇❤❡(❡ ❛❧❧ ✈❛(✐❛❜❧❡. ❛(❡ ❡①♣(❡..❡❞ ✐♥ ❧♦❣ (❡5✉(♥. ❛♥❞ Oilt ✐. 5❤❡ ❲❚■ ♦( ❇(❡♥5 ♣(♦♠♣5

♠♦♥5❤ ❝(✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣(✐❝❡✳

❲✐5❤ 5❤❡ ❛❞❞✐5✐♦♥ ♦❢ 5❤❡ .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ✐♥❞❡① 5❤✐. ♠♦❞❡❧ ❜❡❝♦♠❡.✿

Oilt = α + β1S&P 500t + β2Stoxx 50t + β3NKYt + β4Hang Sengt,

+β5USDEURt + β6USDJPYt + β7USDHKDt ++β8BDIt

+β9Corp Bondt + β10US Oil Inventoryt + β11World Oil Supplyt

+β12OPEC SpareCapacityt + β13OPEC Propt + β14Oil Sentimentt + εt ✭✸✳✷✮

✇❤❡(❡ Oil Sentimentt ✐. 5❤❡ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ 5❤❡ ♦✐❧ .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ✐♥❞❡① ❢♦( ❲❚■ ♦( ❇(❡♥5 ❛5

5✐♠❡ t ♠❡❛.✉(❡❞ ✐♥ ♠♦♥5❤.✳ ❆. ✐. ✉.✉❛❧ ♣(❛❝5✐❝❡✱ .5❛♥❞❛(❞✐.❡❞ ✈❛(✐❛❜❧❡. ❛(❡ ✉.❡❞ .♦

5❤❛5 ❝♦♠♣❛(✐.♦♥. ❜❡5✇❡❡♥ 5❤❡ ✈❛(✐❛❜❧❡. ♠❛② ❜❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❛♥❞ .♦ 5❤❛5 ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛5✐♦♥. ♠❛② ♥♦5

❜❡ ❧✐❛❜❧❡ 5♦ ✢♦❛5✐♥❣ ♣♦✐♥5 ❡((♦(. ✭❆❜♦✉(❛ ❛♥❞ ❈❤❡✈❛❧❧✐❡(✱ ✷✵✶✸✮✱ 5❤✉. 5❤❡ α 5❡(♠. ❛(❡

③❡(♦✳

✹✳ ❘❡$✉❧'$

❚❤❡(❡ ✐. ❛ ❝❧❡❛( ✐♠♣(♦✈❡♠❡♥5 5♦ 5❤❡ ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛(❦ ♠♦❞❡❧. ❢♦( ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇(❡♥5 ♦♥ 5❤❡

✐♥❝❧✉.✐♦♥ ♦❢ 5❤❡ ♦✐❧ .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ✐♥❞✐❝❡. ❛. ✐. .❡❡♥ ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✺✳ ❚❤✐. ✐♥❞✐❝❛5❡. 5❤❛5 5❤❡.❡

✐♥❞✐❝❡.✱ ❛♥❞ ❤❡♥❝❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛(❦❡5 .❡♥5✐♠❡♥5✱ ❤❛. ❛ .✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥5 ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇(❡♥5

♦✐❧ ♣(✐❝❡.✳

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✹✳✶✳ #❡%❢♦%♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ .❡♥/✐♠❡♥/ ✐♥❞❡①

❚❤❡ #❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ♠❛❦❡ ❛ #%❛%✐#%✐❝❛❧❧② #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❛♥❞ ❡❝♦✲

♥♦♠✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♠♣♦,%❛♥% ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧# ❢♦, ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡# ❞✉,✲

✐♥❣ %❤❡ ✶✷ ②❡❛,# ❢,♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛,② ✷✵✵✷ %♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡, ✷✵✶✸✳ ❚❤❡ ,❡#✉❧%# ❛,❡ ♣,❡#❡♥%❡❞ ✐♥

❚❛❜❧❡ ✺ ❛♥❞ #❤♦✇ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❛❞❥✉#%❡❞ ❘

2✐♥❝,❡❛#❡# ✐♥ %❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛,❦

♠♦❞❡❧# ❢,♦♠ ✸✺✪ ❛♥❞ ✸✵✪ %♦ ✺✷✪ ❛♥❞ ✹✾✪ ,❡#♣❡❝%✐✈❡❧②❀ ✐♥ ❛❞❞✐%✐♦♥ %❤❡ ✈❛,✐❛♥❝❡ ,❛✲

%✐♦ %❡#% ✐# ♠✉❝❤ ♠♦,❡ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%✳ ▼♦,❡ ❢♦,♠❛❧❧②✱ %❤❡,❡ ✐# ❛ #%,♦♥❣❧② #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ,❡#✉❧%

❢,♦♠ %❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ,❛%✐♦ %❡#% ♦❢ %❤❡ ✐♠♣,♦✈❡♠❡♥% %♦ %❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧✱ ❛❢%❡, %❤❡

✐♥❝❧✉#✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ #❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡# ❢♦, ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥%✳

▲♦♦❦✐♥❣ ❛% %❤❡ ,❡#✉❧%# ✐♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✺ ✐% ✐# ♥♦%❛❜❧❡ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥%# ♦❢ %❤❡ ❙✫P

✺✵✵✱ ❊✉,♦ ❙%♦①① ✺✵ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ◆✐❦❦❡✐ ❛,❡ ❛❧❧ ✐♥#✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❡①❝❡♣% ❢♦, ❙%♦①① ❢♦, ❲❚■ ✇❤❡♥

#❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐# ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞❀ %❤✐# ❛♥♦♠❛❧② ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ,❡✈✐#✐%❡❞ ❜❡❧♦✇ ✐♥ #❡❝%✐♦♥ ✹✳✷✳ ❚❤✐# ✐# ✉♥❝♦♥✲

✈✐♥❝✐♥❣ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% %❤❡#❡ #%♦❝❦ ♠❛,❦❡%# ❤❛✈❡ ❛♥ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡#✳ ❚❤✐# ,❡#✉❧% ✐#

✐♥ ❧✐♥❡ ✇✐%❤ %❤❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣ ♦❢ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❙✫P✺✵✵ ✇❛# ♥♦% #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❢♦,

,♦✉❣❤❧② %❤❡ #❛♠❡ ♣❡,✐♦❞ ♦❢ %✐♠❡✳ ❋♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ %❤❡ ,❡#✉❧%# ♦❢ ❆❧Z✉✐#% ❛♥❞ ●❡,✈❛✐# ✭✷✵✶✸✮

❛♥❞ ❇❡✐,♥❡ ❡% ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✱ ✇❡ ✜♥❞ %❤❛% %❤❡,❡ ✐# ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❛% ❝♦♥✈❡♥%✐♦♥❛❧ ❧❡✈❡❧# %❤❛% %❤❡

❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥# ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇,❡♥% ♣,✐❝❡#✱ ❜✉% %❤✐# ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ,❡✈✐#✐%❡❞ ✐♥

#❡❝%✐♦♥ ✹✳✷✳

❚❤❡ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡# ✉#❡❞ ❛,❡ ❡①♣,❡##❡❞ ❛# %❤❡ ♣,✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❯❙✩✶ ✐♥ ✈❛,✐♦✉# ❧♦❝❛❧ ❝✉,,❡♥✲

❝✐❡#✱ ♥❛♠❡❧② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦✱ ❨❡♥ ❛♥❞ ❍♦♥❣ ❑♦♥❣ ❞♦❧❧❛,✳ ❖♥❧② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❏❛♣❛♥❡#❡

❨❡♥ ❛,❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ %♦ ❜❡ #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%✱ %❤♦✉❣❤ %❤❡ ❨❡♥ ✐# ♠✉❝❤ ❧❡## #✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% %❤❛♥ %❤❡ ❊✉,♦✳

❚❤❡ ❝♦#% ♦❢ ♦♥❡ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛, ✐♥ ❏❛♣❛♥❡#❡ ❨❡♥ ❤❛# ❛ ♣♦#✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ♠❡❛♥✐♥❣ %❤❛% ❛

✇❡❛❦❡♥✐♥❣ ❨❡♥ ✐# ♦♥ ❛✈❡,❛❣❡ ❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜② ❤✐❣❤❡, ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡# ♠❡❛#✉,❡❞ ✐♥ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛,#✳

❚❤❡ ❧✐♥❦# ❜❡%✇❡❡♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡# ❛♥❞ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡# ❛,❡ ♥♦% ❡♥%✐,❡❧② #%,❛✐❣❤%❢♦,✇❛,❞✱ ✭#❡❡

❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥ ❛♥❞ ❈③✉❞❛❥ ✷✵✶✸✱ ❛♥❞ ❘❡❜♦,❡❞♦ ✷✵✶✷✮✱ ❜✉% ✐% ✐# ❝❧❡❛, %❤❛% ❛♥ ❛♣♣,❡❝✐❛%✐♦♥

✐♥ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ✐# ❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜② ❛♣♣,❡❝✐❛%✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ ❝✉,,❡♥❝② ♦❢ %❤❡ ❡①♣♦,%❡,✱ ❛♥❞ #✐♥❝❡

❏❛♣❛♥ ♣,♦❞✉❝❡# ❛ ♠✉❝❤ #♠❛❧❧❡, ❛♠♦✉♥% ♦❢ ♦✐❧ %❤❛♥ %❤❡ ❯❙ ✭✶✹✵✱✵✵✵ ❜❛,,❡❧# ♣❡, ❞❛②

❢,♦♠ ❏❛♣❛♥ ✐♥ ❝♦♥%,❛#% %♦ ✶✶✱✶✶✵✱✵✵✵ ❢,♦♠ %❤❡ ❯❙✮

✷

✱ %❤❡ ♣♦#✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐# ✐♥ ❧✐♥❡

✇✐%❤ ❡①♣❡❝%❛%✐♦♥#✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ♦❢ %❤❡ ❝♦#% ♦❢ ❯❙✩✶ ✐♥ ❊✉,♦ ✐# ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%✐♥❣

%❤❛% ❛ ✇❡❛❦❡♥✐♥❣ ❊✉,♦ ❛❣❛✐♥#% %❤❡ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛, ✐#✱ ♦♥ ❛✈❡,❛❣❡✱ ❛❝❝♦♠♣❛♥✐❡❞ ❜② ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡

♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ,❡%✉,♥# ❛♥❞ #♦ ❛ ❢❛❧❧ ✐♥ %❤❡ ♣,✐❝❡ ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♠❡❛#✉,❡❞ ✐♥ ❯❙ ❞♦❧❧❛,#✳ ❚❤✐# ✐♥❞✐❝❛%❡#

%❤❛% ❛# %❤❡ ❊✉,♦ ✇❡❛❦❡♥# ❊✉,♦♣❡❛♥# ✇✐❧❧ ❛❝%✉❛❧❧② ❤❛✈❡ %♦ ❜✉② ❢❡✇❡, ♦❢ %❤❡ ♠♦,❡ ❡①✲

♣❡♥#✐✈❡ ❞♦❧❧❛,# %♦ ♣❛② ❢♦, ♦✐❧✳ ❚❤✐# ♠❛② ❜❡ ❜❡❝❛✉#❡ ❛ ❞❡♣,❡❝✐❛%✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡ ❧♦❝❛❧ ❝✉,,❡♥❝②

❝❛✉#❡# ❧♦✇❡, ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦, ♦✐❧✱ ❛# ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✐♥ %❤❡ ✬❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛%✐♦♥ ❝❤❛♥♥❡❧✬ ❜② ❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥

❛♥❞ ❈③✉❞❛❥ ✭✷✵✶✸✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❣,❡❛%❡, #✐③❡ ♦❢ ❊✉,♦③♦♥❡ ,❡❧❛%✐✈❡ %♦ ❏❛♣❛♥ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❢❛❝% %❤❛%

%❤❡ ❊✉,♦③♦♥❡ ✭✇❤✐❝❤ ❞♦❡# ♥♦% ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡ ❯❑ ♦, ◆♦,✇❛②✮ ♣,♦❞✉❝❡# ✺✵✵✱✵✵✵ ❜❛,,❡❧# ♦❢ ♦✐❧

♣❡, ❞❛②✱ ♠❛② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥ ✇❤② %❤❡ ❊✉,♦ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ ,❛%❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐# ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡ ✇❤✐❧❡ %❤❡ ❨❡♥✬#

❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐# ♣♦#✐%✐✈❡✳

■% ✐# ✐♥%❡,❡#%✐♥❣ %❤❛% %❤❡,❡ ✐# ✈❡,② ✇❡❛❦ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% %❤❡ ❇❛❧%✐❝ ❉,② ■♥❞❡① ✭❇❉■✮

✷

❚❤❡ ✷✵✶✷ ❞❛(❛ ✐* ❢,♦♠ (❤❡ ❯❙ ❊♥❡,❣② ■♥❢♦,♠❛(✐♦♥ ❆❞♠✐♥✐*(,❛(✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✇❛* ❛❝❝❡**❡❞ ♦♥ ✷✾(❤

❖❝(♦❜❡, ✷✵✶✹ ❢,♦♠ ❤((♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳❡✐❛✳❣♦✈✴❝♦✉♥(,✐❡*✴

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✐! ❛!!♦❝✐❛%❡❞ ✇✐%❤ ♦✐❧ ♣,✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡!❀ ✐% ✐! ♦♥❧② ❥✉!% !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ❛% %❤❡ ✶✵✪ ❧❡✈❡❧✳ ❚❤✐!

✐! ✉♥❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ❛! %❤❡ ❇❉■ ❤❛! ❜❡❡♥ ✉!❡❞ ❛! ❛ ♣,♦①② ❢♦, ✇♦,❧❞✇✐❞❡ ✐♥❞✉!%,✐❛❧ ❛❝%✐✈✐%②

❜② ▼✐%❝❤❡❧❧ ❡% ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮✱ ❋,❛❧❡ ❡% ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✽✮✱ ❑✐❧✐❛♥ ✭✷✵✵✾✮✱ ❋❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❳✉ ✭✷✵✶✶✮✱ ❛♥❞

❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❝♦!% ♦❢ ❜♦,,♦✇✐♥❣ ❛! ♠❡❛!✉,❡❞ ❜② ▼♦♦❞②✬! ❆❛❛ ❝♦,♣♦,❛%❡ ❜♦♥❞

,❛%❡ ❤❛! %❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ♣♦!✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ❛! ❢♦✉♥❞ ❜② ❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%✐♥❣ %❤❛%

❛! ❜♦,,♦✇✐♥❣ ❜❡❝♦♠❡! ♠♦,❡ ❡①♣❡♥!✐✈❡ !♦ ❞♦❡! ♦✐❧✳ ❆! ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ❜② %❤❡ ❧❛✇ ♦❢

!✉♣♣❧② ❛♥❞ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✱ %❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥%♦,② ❤❛! ❛ ❤✐❣❤❧② !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥%

❢♦, ❲❚■ ♣,✐❝❡! ❛♥❞ ❛ ❧❡!! !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ♥❡❣❛%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ❢♦, ❇,❡♥% ♣,✐❝❡!✳ ❚❤❡,❡ ✐! ♥♦

❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% ✇♦,❧❞ ♦✐❧ !✉♣♣❧② ✐! !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%❀ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐! ✉♥❡①♣❡❝%❡❞✳ ❖T❊❈ !♣❛,❡ ❝❛♣❛❝✐%②

✐! ❛ ♠❡❛!✉,❡ ♦❢ %❤❡ ❞✐✛❡,❡♥❝❡ ❜❡%✇❡❡♥ ❖T❊❈ ❝❛♣❛❝✐%② %♦ ❞❡❧✐✈❡, ♦✐❧ ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❛❝%✉❛❧

W✉❛♥%✐%② ❞❡❧✐✈❡,❡❞✱ ✐% ✐! %❤✉! ❛ ♠❡❛!✉,❡ ♦❢ ❤♦✇ ♠✉❝❤ ♦✐❧ ❖T❊❈ ✐! ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣ ❜❛❝❦ ❢,♦♠ %❤❡

♠❛,❦❡%✳ ❚❤✐! ✈❛,✐❛❜❧❡ ❤❛! ❛ ♣♦!✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ❛! ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞✳ ❋✐♥❛❧❧② %❤❡ ♣,♦♣♦,%✐♦♥ ♦❢

✇♦,❧❞ ♦✐❧ ♣,♦❞✉❝%✐♦♥ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐! ❢,♦♠ ❖T❊❈ ❤❛! ❛ !✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥% ♣♦!✐%✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❛%✐♥❣

%❤❛% ❖T❊❈ ❤❛! ❝♦♥!✐❞❡,❛❜❧❡ ♠❛,❦❡% ♣♦✇❡, ❛! ✐! ❡①♣❡❝%❡❞ ❢,♦♠ %❤❡ ✇♦,❦ ♦❢ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥

✭✷✵✵✹✮ ❛♥❞ ▲✐♥ ❛♥❞ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐! ✭✷✵✶✵✮✳

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❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ❉❡❝ ✷✵✶✸ ∆WTI ∆Brent

◆ ❂ ✶✹✸ ▼♦♥0❤2 ❇❡♥❝❤ ❇❡♥❝❤ ✰ ❙❡♥0✐♠❡♥0 ❇❡♥❝❤ ❇❡♥❝❤ ✰ ❙❡♥0✐♠❡♥0

∆S&P500 ✵✳✶✶✵ ✵✳✷✶✺ ✵✳✵✽✻ ✵✳✵✾✽

✭✵✳✺✶✮ ✭✵✳✶✹✮ ✭✵✳✻✷✮ ✭✵✳✺✷✮

∆Stoxx 50 ✲✵✳✷✹✾ ✲✵✳✸✹✵✯✯ ✲✵✳✷✶✺ ✲✵✳✶✽✻

✭✵✳✶✶✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✷✮ ✭✵✳✶✽✮ ✭✵✳✶✽✮

∆NKY ✵✳✵✹✾ ✲✵✳✵✼✻ ✵✳✵✻✵ ✲✵✳✵✹✶

✭✵✳✻✺✮ ✭✵✳✹✶✮ ✭✵✳✺✾✮ ✭✵✳✻✼✮

∆Hang Seng ✵✳✷✹✼✯✯ ✵✳✷✸✷✯✯ ✵✳✷✹✼✯✯ ✵✳✷✷✺✯✯

✭✵✳✵✸✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✽✮ ✭✵✳✵✸✼✮ ✭✵✳✵✷✽✮

∆USDEUR ✲✵✳✸✺✸✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✸✵✾✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✸✸✾✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✷✼✺✯✯✯

✭✶✳✹ ① ✶✵

−4✮ ✭✶✳✶ ① ✶✵

−4✮ ✭✹✳✷ ① ✶✵

−4✮ ✭✾✳✸ ① ✶✵

−4✮

∆USDJPY ✵✳✶✾✼✯✯ ✵✳✷✶✸✯✯✯ ✵✳✶✺✷✯ ✵✳✶✶✷

✭✵✳✵✷✸✮ ✭✵✳✵✵✹✮ ✭✵✳✵✾✵✮ ✭✵✳✶✺✮

∆USDHKD ✵✳✵✼✹ ✵✳✵✶✵ ✵✳✶✶✽ ✵✳✵✹✷

✭✵✳✸✷✮ ✭✵✳✽✽✮ ✭✵✳✶✸✮ ✭✵✳✺✸✮

∆BDI ✵✳✶✵✼ ✵✳✵✼✽ ✵✳✶✶✵ ✵✳✶✶✸✯

✭✵✳✶✻✮ ✭✵✳✷✸✮ ✭✵✳✶✻✮ ✭✵✳✵✾✼✮

∆MoodyCAAA ✵✳✷✶✸✯✯✯ ✵✳✶✷✺✯✯ ✵✳✶✼✸✯✯ ✵✳✶✺✹✯✯

✭✵✳✵✵✸✹✮ ✭✵✳✵✹✾✮ ✭✵✳✵✷✷✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✽✮

∆US Oil Inventory ✲✵✳✶✽✻✯✯ ✲✵✳✶✻✹✯✯✯ ✲✵✳✶✸✼✯ ✲✵✳✵✽✹✯✯

✭✵✳✵✶✶✮ ✭✵✳✵✵✾✻✮ ✭✵✳✵✼✸✮ ✭✵✳✵✷✵✮

∆World Oil Supply ✵✳✵✽✺ ✵✳✵✻✻ ✵✳✵✹✻ ✲✵✳✵✶✹

✭✵✳✷✼✮ ✭✵✳✸✷✮ ✭✵✳✺✼✮ ✭✵✳✽✹✮

∆OPEC Spare Capacity ✵✳✷✶✾✯✯✯ ✵✳✶✶✽✯ ✵✳✷✵✸✯✯ ✵✳✵✻✾

✭✵✳✵✵✼✻✮ ✭✵✳✶✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✼✮ ✭✵✳✸✻✮

∆OPEC Proportion ✵✳✶✻✼✯✯ ✵✳✶✹✸✯✯ ✵✳✶✻✺✯✯ ✵✳✶✼✺✯✯

✭✵✳✵✸✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✸✵✮ ✭✵✳✵✸✾✮ ✭✵✳✵✶✶✮

∆Oil Sentiment ✵✳✹✹✸✯✯✯ ✵✳✹✺✾✯✯✯

✭✹✳✺ ① ✶✵

−10✮ ✭✹✳✸ ① ✶✵

−10✮

▲♦❣ ▲✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ ✶✻✹✳✹✸ ✶✹✷✳✻✹ ✶✼✵✳✸✻ ✶✹✽✳✺✵

♣✲✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ 0❤❡ ▲✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞

❘❛0✐♦ ❚❡20

✹✳✶ ① ✶✵

−11✸✳✽ ① ✶✵

−11

❱❛D✐❛♥❝❡ ❘❛0✐♦ ✭❋✮ ❚❡20 ✹✳✻ ① ✶✵

−10✷✳✼ ① ✶✵

−17✹✳✾ ① ✶✵

−8✸✳✺ ① ✶✵

−15

❆❞❥✉20❡❞ ❘

2✸✺✳✸✪ ✺✶✳✾✪ ✷✾✳✼✪ ✹✼✳✽✪

❚❤❡ #❛❜❧❡ '❤♦✇' ❖▲❙ -❡❣-❡''✐♦♥ -❡'✉❧#' ❢♦- #❤❡ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥# ❜❡♥❝❤♠❛-❦ ♠♦❞❡❧' ❜❡❢♦-❡ ❛♥❞ ❛❢#❡- #❤❡ ✐♥❝❧✉'✐♦♥ ♦❢

#❤❡ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ✐♥❞❡① ❞❡'❝-✐❜❡❞ ❜② ❊=♥'✳ ✭✸✳✶✮ ❛♥❞ ✭✸✳✷✮✳ ❚❤❡ ❞❛#❛ ❤❛' ❜❡❡♥ ✜-'# ❞✐✛❡-❡♥❝❡❞ ❛♥❞ '#❛♥❞❛-❞✐③❡❞✳ ❚❤❡

❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ -❛#✐♦ #❡'# ❢♦-♠❛❧❧② ❝♦♠♣❛-❡' ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣❡-❢♦-♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ #❤❡ '❡♥#✐♠❡♥# ♠♦❞❡❧ ✭❇❡♥❝❤ ✰ ❙❡♥#✐♠❡♥#✮ -❡❧❛#✐✈❡ #♦ #❤❡

❜❡♥❝❤♠❛-❦ ✭❇❡♥❝❤✮ ♠♦❞❡❧✳ ✯✱ ✯✯ ❛♥❞ ✯✯✯ ✐♥❞✐❝❛#❡ '✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ❛# #❤❡ ✶✵✪✱ ✺✪ ❛♥❞ ✶✪ ❧❡✈❡❧'❀ ♣✲✈❛❧✉❡' ❛♣♣❡❛- ✐♥ ❜-❛❝❦❡#'

❜❡❧♦✇ ❡❛❝❤ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥#✳ ❇♦❧❞ ♣-✐♥# ✐♥❞✐❝❛#❡' ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥#' ✇❤✐❝❤ ✇❡-❡ '✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥# ✉♥❞❡- #❤❡ ●❡♥❡-❛❧✐'❡❞ ❍♦❧♠ ▼✉❧#✐♣❧❡

❍②♣♦#❤❡'✐' ❚❡'#✐♥❣ ❢-❛♠❡✇♦-❦✳

❚❛❜❧❡ ✺✿ ❖▲❙ ❘❡❣D❡22✐♦♥ ❘❡2✉❧02 ❢♦D ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇D❡♥0 ✷✵✵✷ ✲ ✷✵✶✸

✶✻

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EPTE

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IPT

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

✹✳✷✳ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ *❡+✉❧.+ ❛♥❞ ❞✐+❝✉++✐♦♥

❘❡❝♦❣♥✐③✐♥❣ (❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ♥❛(✉.❡ ♦❢ ♦✉. .❡0❡❛.❝❤ ✐♥(♦ ♦✐❧ ♠❛.❦❡( 0❡♥(✐♠❡♥(✱ ✇❡ ❞❡❧✐❜✲

❡.❛(❡❧② (❛❦❡ ❛ ♣.✉❞❡♥( ❛♣♣.♦❛❝❤✳ ❚❤❡.❡ ✐0 ❛ ♠✉❧.✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛*✐+♦♥+ ♣*♦❜❧❡♠ (❤❛( ❡①✐0(0

✐♥ (❤✐0 (❡0(✐♥❣ ❢.❛♠❡✇♦.❦❀ ✐( ✐0 ❛ 0♦✉.❝❡ ♦❢ ❜✐❛0 (❤❛( ✇❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝✐(❧② ❛❞❞.❡00 ❜② ❛♣♣❧②✲

✐♥❣ .❡❝❡♥(❧② ❞❡✈❡❧♦♣❡❞ ❣❡♥❡*❛❧✐+❡❞ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0✐0 (❡0(✐♥❣ ✭▼❍❚✮ (❡❝❤♥✐B✉❡0✳ ❚❤❡

♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ ♦❝❝✉.0 ✇❤❡♥ ❛ ❧❛.❣❡ ♥✉♠❜❡. ♦❢ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0✐0 (❡0(0 ❛.❡ ♣❡.✲

❢♦.♠❡❞ 0✐♠✉❧(❛♥❡♦✉0❧②✱ ❧❡❛❞✐♥❣ (♦ ❛ ♥♦♥✲♥❡❣❧✐❣✐❜❧❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ (❤❛( 0♦♠❡ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧❧②

0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥( .❡0✉❧(0 ♠❛② ❜❡ ✐❞❡♥(✐✜❡❞ ❜② ♣✉.❡ .❛♥❞♦♠ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ ❛❧♦♥❡✱ .❛(❤❡. (❤❛♥ ❛0 ❛

.❡0✉❧( ♦❢ ❛♥② ✉♥❞❡.❧②✐♥❣ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧ .❡❧❛(✐♦♥0❤✐♣0✳ ■♥ ♦✉. (❡0(✐♥❣ ❢.❛♠❡✇♦.❦✱ (❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧

0♣❡❝✐✜❝❛(✐♦♥0 0❡( ♦✉( ❛ (♦(❛❧ ♦❢ ✾✷ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0✐0 (❡0(0 ❝♦♠♣.✐0✐♥❣ ♦❢ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧

❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥( (❡0(0✱ ❋ (❡0(0✱ (❤❡ ✉♥.❡♣♦.(❡❞ ❆❉❋ (❡0(0 ❛♥❞ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ .❛(✐♦ (❡0(0✳ ❍❡♥❝❡✱

(❤❡ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ ✐0 ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦.(❛♥( ✐00✉❡ (♦ ❝♦♥0✐❞❡. ❛♥❞ ❛❞❞.❡00 ✐♥ ♦.❞❡.

(♦ ❜✉✐❧❞ .♦❜✉0( ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥0✳ ❋♦. ❛ ♠♦.❡ (❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ (.❡❛(♠❡♥( ♦❢ ▼❍❚ ✐00✉❡0✱ 0❡❡ ❍♦❧♠

✭✶✾✼✾✮✱ ❘♦♠❛♥♦✱ ❙❤❛✐❦❤ ❛♥❞ ❲♦❧❢ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✱ ❈✉♠♠✐♥0 ✭✷✵✶✸❛✮ ❛♥❞ ❈✉♠♠✐♥0 ✭✷✵✶✸❜✮✳

❚♦ ❣✐✈❡ (❤❡ ❣.❡❛(❡0( ♣♦✇❡. (♦ ✐❞❡♥(✐❢② (.✉❡ ❞✐0❝♦✈❡.✐❡0✱ ✇❡ 0❡( ❛ ♣.♦❜❛❜✐❧✐(② ♦❢ α = 0.1

❛0 (❤❡ ✉♣♣❡. ❜♦✉♥❞ ♣.♦❜❛❜✐❧✐(② (❤❛( (❤❡.❡ ❛.❡ k = 5 ♦. ♠♦.❡ ❢❛❧0❡ .❡❥❡❝(✐♦♥0 ♦❢ ♥✉❧❧

❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 ❛♠♦♥❣0( (❤❡ ✾✷ (❡0(0❀ ✇❡ ❝❤♦♦0❡ ✺ ❛0 (❤✐0 ✐0 ❛♣♣.♦①✐♠❛(❡❧② ✺✪ ♦❢ (❤❡ (♦(❛❧

♥✉♠❜❡. ♦❢ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 (❡0(❡❞✳ ❯0✐♥❣ (❤❡0❡ ❝.✐(❡.✐❛ ✇❡ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ♠✉❝❤ ♠♦.❡ ❛00✉.❡❞ (❤❛(

(❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥0 ✇❡ ❞.❛✇ ❛.❡ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧❧② .❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ .♦❜✉0(✳ ■♥ (❤✐0 ♣❛.(✐❝✉❧❛. 0(✉❞②✱

(❤❡ ❣❡♥❡.❛❧✐0❡❞ ❍♦❧♠ ♣.♦❝❡❞✉.❡ ✭❘♦♠❛♥♦✱ ❙❤❛✐❦❤ ❛♥❞ ❲♦❧❢✱ ✷✵✶✵✮ ❧❡❛❞0 ✉0 (♦ .❡❥❡❝(

✹✽ ♥✉❧❧ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛( (❤❡ ❝♦♥✈❡♥(✐♦♥❛❧ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✺✪✱ ✻✸ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0 ✇♦✉❧❞

❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ .❡❥❡❝(❡❞✳ ❚❤✐0 ▼❍❚ ❢.❛♠❡✇♦.❦ ✐0 ♠♦.❡ ❝♦♥0❡.✈❛(✐✈❡ (❤❛♥ ❝♦♥✈❡♥(✐♦♥❛❧ 0✐❣✲

♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ ❧❡✈❡❧0✱ ✇❤❡.❡ ✐♥ (❤❡ ❧❛((❡. ❝❛0❡ ♦♥❡ ✐❣♥♦.❡0 (❤❡ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠✳

■♥ 0♦ ❞♦✐♥❣ ✇.♦♥❣ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥0 ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❞.❛✇♥ ❢.♦♠ (❤❡ ❡①(.❛ ✶✺ .❡❥❡❝(❡❞

♥✉❧❧ ❤②♣♦(❤❡0❡0✳ ❲✐(❤ (❤✐0 ♠♦(✐✈❛(✐♦♥ ✐♥ ♣❧❛❝❡✱ ✇❡ .❡✈✐0✐( (❤❡ .❡0✉❧(0 0❡( ♦✉( ✐♥ (❤❡

♣.❡✈✐♦✉0 0❡❝(✐♦♥ ✭✹✳✶✮ ❛♥❞ 0❡❡❦ (♦ ❛❞❞.❡00 (❤❡ ♠✉❧(✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛.✐0♦♥0 ♣.♦❜❧❡♠ (❤❛( ✇❛0

♥♦( ❡①♣❧✐❝✐(❧② ❝♦♥0✐❞❡.❡❞✳ ❚❤✐0 ✐0 ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦.(❛♥( 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧ ❝♦..❡❝(✐♦♥ ♠✐00✐♥❣ ❢.♦♠ ♣.✐♦.

0❡♥(✐♠❡♥( ✐♥✈❡0(✐❣❛(✐♦♥0✳

■♥ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✺ .❡0✉❧(0 ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛.❡ ❝♦♥0✐❞❡.❡❞ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥( ✉♥❞❡. (❤❡ ▼❍❚ ♣.♦❝❡00 ❛.❡ ✐♥✲

❞✐❝❛(❡❞ ✐♥ ❜♦❧❞✳ ▼♦0( ♥♦(❛❜❧②✱ (❤❡.❡ ✐0 ♥♦ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ (♦ (❤❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉0✐♦♥ (❤❛( (❤❡ 0❡♥(✐♠❡♥(

✐♥❞✐❝❡0 ❢♦. ❲❚■ ❛♥❞ ❇.❡♥( ♦✐❧ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(❧② ❛❝❝♦✉♥( ❢♦. ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡0✳ ❚❤✐0 ✐0 ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦.✲

(❛♥( ✜♥❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❛❧❧♦✇0 ✉0 (♦ ❛.❣✉❡ ✇✐(❤ 0(❛(✐0(✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ (❤❛( 0❡♥(✐♠❡♥( ❛✛❡❝(0

♣.♦❢❡00✐♦♥❛❧❧② (.❛❞❡❞ ♦✐❧ ♠❛.❦❡(0✳ ■( ✐0 ❛❧0♦ ❢♦✉♥❞ (❤❛( (❤❡ ❯❙✩ ❊✉.♦ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛(❡

0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(❧② ❡①♣❧❛✐♥0 (❤❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥( ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ♣.✐❝❡0✳ ❆( (❤❡ ♠♦.❡ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✐♥❣ ❧❡✈❡❧0 ♦❢ 0✐❣✲

♥✐✜❝❛♥❝❡ .❡B✉✐.❡❞ ❜② (❤❡ ▼❍❚ ♣.♦❝❡❞✉.❡✱ (❤❡ ❛♥♦♠❛❧♦✉0 .❡0✉❧( ❢♦✉♥❞ ♣.❡✈✐♦✉0❧② (❤❛(

❝❤❛♥❣❡0 ✐♥ (❤❡ ❙(♦①① ✺✵ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❲❚■ ♣.✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥(0 ✐0 ♥♦( ❢♦✉♥❞ (♦ ❜❡ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(✳

❋✉.(❤❡.♠♦.❡ (❤❡ ❍❛♥❣ ❙❡♥❣ ❛♥❞ (❤❡ ❇❉■ ❛.❡ ♥♦( ❢♦✉♥❞ (♦ ❜❡ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(✳ ❚❤❡ ❯❙✩

❨❡♥ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ .❛(❡✱ (❤❡ ▼♦♦❞② ❝♦.♣♦.❛(❡ ❜♦♥❞ .❛(❡✱ (❤❡ ❯❙ ♦✐❧ ✐♥✈❡♥(♦.②✱ ❖_❊❈ 0♣❛.❡

❝❛♣❛❝✐(② ❛♥❞ ❖_❊❈ ♣.♦♣♦.(✐♦♥ ❛.❡ ❢♦✉♥❞ (♦ ❜❡ 0✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥(✳

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✺✳ ❈♦♥❝❧✉(✐♦♥

❲❡ ✜♥❞ %❤❛% (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐( ❛♥ ✐♠♣♦-%❛♥% ❝♦♥(✐❞❡-❛%✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❲❚■ ❛♥❞

❇-❡♥% ♣-✐❝❡( ✉(✐♥❣ ❞❛%❛ ❢-♦♠ ❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✷ %♦ ❉❡❝ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❚❤✐( ✇❛( ❞♦♥❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ %❤❡

♠❡%❤♦❞( ♦❢ ❇❛❦❡- ❛♥❞ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ✭✷✵✵✻✮ ❜② ❜✉✐❧❞✐♥❣ (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡( ❢♦- ❜♦%❤ ❲❚■

❛♥❞ ❇-❡♥% ✉(✐♥❣ (✐♠✐❧❛- ♣-♦①✐❡( %♦ %❤♦(❡ ✉(❡❞ ✐♥ ❡E✉✐%✐❡( -❡(❡❛-❝❤✳ ❚❤❡ %✇♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❡(

✇❡-❡ ❝♦♥(%-✉❝%❡❞ ✉(✐♥❣ ♣-✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥% ❛♥❛❧②(✐( ♦❢ %❤❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ♣-♦①✐❡(✿

✈♦❧✉♠❡ ♦❢ ❢✉%✉-❡( ❝♦♥%-❛❝%(✱ %❤❡ ✈♦❧❛%✐❧✐%② ♦❢ %❤❡ ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝❡✱ ♦✐❧ (♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛%♦-(✱ %❤❡

♣✉%✲❝❛❧❧ -❛%✐♦ ❢♦- ♦♣%✐♦♥( ♦♥ ♦✐❧ ❢✉%✉-❡( ❛♥❞ (%♦❝❦ ✐♥❞❡① ✈♦❧❛%✐❧✐%②✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❝❧✉(✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤❡(❡

(❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡( (✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥%❧② ✐♠♣-♦✈❡❞ %❤❡ ♣❡-❢♦-♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥%❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧( ❢♦- ♦✐❧

♣-✐❝❡( ❛( ♠❡❛(✉-❡❞ ❜② %❤❡ ❧✐❦❡❧✐❤♦♦❞ -❛%✐♦ %❡(% ❛♥❞ ❛❧(♦ ❜-♦✉❣❤% ❛❜♦✉% ❛ ❧❛-❣❡ ✐♥❝-❡❛(❡

✐♥ %❤❡ ❛❞❥✉(%❡❞ ❘

2(%❛%✐(%✐❝✳ ❚❤❡ ✜♥❞✐♥❣( ❛-❡ (✉♣♣♦-%❡❞ ❜② ❛ ♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦%❤❡(✐( %❡(%✐♥❣

❢-❛♠❡✇♦-❦ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❣✐✈❡( ❛ ✈❡-② ❤✐❣❤ ❞❡❣-❡❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ %❤❛% ✇❡ ❛-❡ ♥♦% ♠❡-❡❧② ♦❜(❡-✈✐♥❣

❛ ❝❤❛♥❝❡ -❡(✉❧% ❞✉❡ %♦ %❤❡ ♠✉❧%✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛-✐(♦♥ ♣-♦❜❧❡♠✳

❙❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ❤❛( ❛❧-❡❛❞② ❜❡❡♥ (❡❡♥ %♦ ❛✛❡❝% ❡E✉✐%② ♠❛-❦❡%(✱ ♦✉- ✜♥❞✐♥❣( ❡①♣❛♥❞ (❡♥%✐✲

♠❡♥% %♦ ❡♥❡-❣② ♠❛-❦❡%(✳ ❚❤✐( ♥♦% ♦♥❧② ❧❡❛✈❡( ♦♣❡♥ %❤❡ ♣♦((✐❜✐❧✐%② %❤❛% (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥❞✐❝❡(

❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❝♦♥(%-✉❝%❡❞ ❢♦- ❡♥❡-❣② ♠❛-❦❡%( ♦%❤❡- %❤❛♥ ♦✐❧ ✭❣❛( ❛♥❞ ❝♦❛❧ ❜❡✐♥❣ %❤❡ ♥❛%✉-❛❧

♥❡①% (%❡♣(✮✱ ❜✉% ❛❧(♦ ❛❝%( ❛( ❛ ❝❛❧❧ ❢♦- ❢✉-%❤❡- -❡(❡❛-❝❤ ♦♥ %❤❡ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐(♠ ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤

(❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡( ♦✐❧ ♣-✐❝✐♥❣✱ ❛♥❞ ❛❧(♦ ❛ ❞❡❝♦♠♣♦(✐%✐♦♥ ♦❢ %❤✐( (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡

✐♥%♦ ✐%( -❛%✐♦♥❛❧ ❛♥❞ ✐--❛%✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥%(✳ ❚❤✐( ❧❛%%❡- ✐♥✈❡(%✐❣❛%✐♦♥ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ♦❢ ♣❛-✲

%✐❝✉❧❛- ❜❡♥❡✜% %♦ ♣♦❧✐❝② ♠❛❦❡-( (❡❡❦✐♥❣ %♦ ❝♦♥%-♦❧ ✐--❛%✐♦♥❛❧ ❡①✉❜❡-❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❡((✐✈❡

(♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ✇✐%❤ ✐%( ❛((♦❝✐❛%❡❞ ✐♠♣❛❝% ♦♥ %❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②

❘❡❢❡-❡♥❝❡(

❆❜♦✉-❛✱ ❙✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❈❤❡✈❛❧❧✐❡-✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏▲❡✈❡-❛❣❡ ✈(✳ ❢❡❡❞❜❛❝❦✿ ❲❤✐❝❤ ❡✛❡❝% ❞-✐✈❡( %❤❡ ♦✐❧

♠❛-❦❡%❄✑ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❘❡'❡❛(❝❤ ▲❡++❡(' ✶✵✭✸✮✿✶✸✶ ✕ ✶✹✶✳

❆❝❤❛-②❛✱ ❱✳❱✳✱ ▲✳❆✳ ▲♦❝❤(%♦❡- ❛♥❞ ❚✳ ❘❛♠❛❞♦-❛✐✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏▲✐♠✐%( %♦ ❛-❜✐%-❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ❤❡❞❣✲

✐♥❣✿ ❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢-♦♠ ❝♦♠♠♦❞✐%② ♠❛-❦❡%(✳✑ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝' ✶✵✾✭✷✮✿✹✹✶

✕ ✹✻✺✳

❆❧E✉✐(%✱ ❘✳ ❛♥❞ ❖✳ ●❡-✈❛✐(✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❘♦❧❡ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❙♣❡❝✉❧❛%✐♦♥ ✐♥ ❉-✐✈✐♥❣ %❤❡

^-✐❝❡ ♦❢ ❈-✉❞❡ ❖✐❧✳✑ ❊♥❡(❣② ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ✸✹✭✸✮✿✸✺ ✕ ✺✹✳

❇❛❦❡-✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❲✉-❣❧❡-✳ ✷✵✵✻✳ ✏■♥✈❡(%♦- (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ❛♥❞ %❤❡ ❝-♦(( (❡❝%✐♦♥ ♦❢ (%♦❝❦

-❡%✉-♥(✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✻✶✿✶✻✹✺ ✕ ✶✻✽✵✳

❇❛❦❡-✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❲✉-❣❧❡-✳ ✷✵✵✼✳ ✏■♥✈❡(%♦- (❡♥%✐♠❡♥% ✐♥ %❤❡ (%♦❝❦ ♠❛-❦❡%✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧

♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ 6❡('♣❡❝+✐✈❡' ✷✶✭✷✮✿✶✷✾✕✶✺✶✳

❇❛❦❡-✱ ▼✳✱ ❏✳ ❲✉-❣❧❡- ❛♥❞ ❨✳ ❨✉❛♥✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏●❧♦❜❛❧✱ ❧♦❝❛❧✱ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥%❛❣✐♦✉( ✐♥✈❡(%♦-

(❡♥%✐♠❡♥%✳✑ ❏♦✉(♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝' ✶✵✹✭✷✮✿✷✼✷ ✕ ✷✽✼✳

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❇❛❦❡$✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳❈✳ ❙-❡✐♥✳ ✷✵✵✹✳ ✏▼❛$❦❡- ❧✐4✉✐❞✐-② ❛7 ❛ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ✐♥❞✐❝❛-♦$✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢

❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ▼❛#❦❡./ ✼✭✸✮✿✷✼✶✕✷✾✾✳

❇❛$❜❡$✐7✱ ◆✳✱ ❆✳ ❙❤❧❡✐❢❡$ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❱✐7❤♥②✳ ✶✾✾✽✳ ✏❆ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡7-♦$ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥-✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧

♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✹✾✭✸✮✿✸✵✼ ✕ ✸✹✸✳

❇❛$❜❡$✐7✱ ◆✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❚❤❛❧❡$✳ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❆ /✉#✈❡② ♦❢ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦#❛❧ ✜♥❛♥❝❡✳ ❆❜✐♥❞❣♦♥✿❘♦✉-❧✐❞❣❡✳

❇❛-❤✐❛✱ ❉✳ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ❇$❡❞✐♥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❆♥ ❡①❛♠✐♥❛-✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥✈❡7-♦$ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ❡✛❡❝- ♦♥ ●✼

7-♦❝❦ ♠❛$❦❡- $❡-✉$♥7✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❊✉#♦♣❡❛♥ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✾✭✾✮✿✾✵✾✕✾✸✼✳

❇❡❝❦♠❛♥♥✱ ❏✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳ ❈③✉❞❛❥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏■7 -❤❡$❡ ❛ ❤♦♠♦❣❡♥❡♦✉7 ❝❛✉7❛❧✐-② ♣❛--❡$♥ ❜❡-✇❡❡♥

♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ ❝✉$$❡♥❝✐❡7 ♦❢ ♦✐❧ ✐♠♣♦$-❡$7 ❛♥❞ ❡①♣♦$-❡$7❄✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✹✵✿✻✻✺

✕ ✻✼✽✳

❇❡✐$♥❡✱ ❏✳✱ ❈✳ ❇❡✉❧❡♥✱ ●✳ ▲✐✉ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ▼✐$③❛❡✐✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏●❧♦❜❛❧ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ -❤❡ ✐♠♣❛❝-

♦❢ ❈❤✐♥❛✳✑ ❈❤✐♥❛ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✷✼✭✵✮✿✸✼ ✕ ✺✶✳

❇♦$♦✈❦♦✈❛✱ ❙✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏◆❡✇7 ❆♥❛❧②-✐❝7 ❢♦$ ❊♥❡$❣② ❋✉-✉$❡7✳✑ ❆✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❛. ❙❙❘◆ ✶✼✶✾✺✽✷

✳

❇$❛❤♠❛7$❡♥❡✱ ❚✳✱ ❏✳ ❍✉❛♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❨✳ ❙✐77♦❦♦✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✏❈$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ $❛-❡7✿

❈❛✉7❛❧✐-②✱ ✈❛$✐❛♥❝❡ ❞❡❝♦♠♣♦7✐-✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♠♣✉❧7❡ $❡7♣♦♥7❡✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✹✹✿✹✵✼

✕ ✹✶✷✳

❇✉♥♥✱ ❉✳❲✳ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ❈❤❡♥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❚❤❡ ❢♦$✇❛$❞ ♣$❡♠✐✉♠ ✐♥ ❡❧❡❝-$✐❝✐-② ❢✉-✉$❡7✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧

♦❢ ❊♠♣✐#✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✷✸✿✶✼✸ ✕ ✶✽✻✳

❈❛♥❜❛➩✱ ❙✳ ❛♥❞ ❙✳❨✳ ❑❛♥❞✙$✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏■♥✈❡7-♦$ 7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ❛♥❞ 7-♦❝❦ $❡-✉$♥ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢$♦♠

❚✉$❦❡②✳✑ ❊♠❡#❣✐♥❣ ▼❛#❦❡./ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❚#❛❞❡ ✹✺✭✹✮✿✸✻✕✺✷✳

❈❤✉♥❣✱ ❙❛♥✲▲✐♥✱ ❈❤✐✲❍7✐♦✉ ❍✉♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❈❤✉♥❣✲❨✐♥❣ ❨❡❤✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏❲❤❡♥ ❞♦❡7 ✐♥✈❡7-♦$

7❡♥-✐♠❡♥- ♣$❡❞✐❝- 7-♦❝❦ $❡-✉$♥7❄✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♠♣✐#✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✾✭✷✮✿✷✶✼ ✕ ✷✹✵✳

❈✐❢❛$❡❧❧✐✱ ●✳ ❛♥❞ ●✳ e❛❧❛❞✐♥♦✳ ✷✵✶✵✳ ✏❖✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝7 ❛♥❞ 7♣❡❝✉❧❛-✐♦♥✿ ❆ ♠✉❧-✐✈❛$✐❛-❡

✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♣♣$♦❛❝❤✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝/ ✸✷✭✷✮✿✸✻✸ ✕ ✸✼✷✳

❈♦❛-❡7✱ ❏✳ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳ ❍❡$❜❡$-✳ ✷✵✵✽✳ ✏❊♥❞♦❣❡♥♦✉7 7-❡$♦✐❞7 ❛♥❞ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ $✐7❦ -❛❦✐♥❣ ♦♥ ❛

▲♦♥❞♦♥ -$❛❞✐♥❣ ✢♦♦$✳✑ G#♦❝❡❡❞✐♥❣/ ♦❢ .❤❡ ◆❛.✐♦♥❛❧ ❆❝❛❞❡♠② ♦❢ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡/ ♦❢ .❤❡ ❯♥✐.❡❞

❙.❛.❡/ ♦❢ ❆♠❡#✐❝❛ ✶✵✺✭✶✻✮✿✻✶✻✼✕✻✶✼✷✳

❈♦❧❡♠❛♥✱ ▲✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏❊①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ ❝$✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♣$✐❝❡7 ✉7✐♥❣ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥-❛❧ ♠❡❛7✉$❡7✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣②

G♦❧✐❝② ✶✵✿✸✶✽✕✸✷✹✳

❈✉♠♠✐♥7✱ ▼✳ ✷✵✶✸❛✳ ✏❊❯ ❊❚❙ ♠❛$❦❡- ✐♥-❡$❛❝-✐♦♥7✿ ❚❤❡ ❝❛7❡ ❢♦$ ♠✉❧-✐♣❧❡ ❤②♣♦-❤❡7✐7

-❡7-✐♥❣ ❛♣♣$♦❛❝❤❡7✳✑ ❆♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❊♥❡#❣② ✶✶✶✭✵✮✿✼✵✶ ✕ ✼✵✾✳

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

❈✉♠♠✐♥%✱ ▼✳ ✷✵✶✸❜✳ ✏▼✉❧/✐♣❧❡ ❝♦♠♣❛5✐%♦♥% ♣5♦❜❧❡♠✿ ❘❡❝❡♥/ ❛❞✈❛♥❝❡% ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ /♦

❡♥❡5❣② ❛♥❞ ❡♠✐%%✐♦♥%✳✑ ❆♣♣❧✐❡❞ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ▲❡..❡/, ✭✷✵✮✿✾✵✸✕✾✵✾✳

❉♦✇❧✐♥❣✱ ▼✳✱ ▼✳ ❈✉♠♠✐♥% ❛♥❞ ❇✳▼✳ ▲✉❝❡②✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✏G%②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ❜❛55✐❡5% ✐♥ ♦✐❧ ❢✉/✉5❡%

♠❛5❦❡/%✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ♣✳ ✐♥ ♣5❡%%✳

❋❛♥✱ ❨✳ ❛♥❞ ❏✳❍✳ ❳✉✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❲❤❛/ ❤❛% ❞5✐✈❡♥ ♦✐❧ ♣5✐❝❡% %✐♥❝❡ ✷✵✵✵❄ ❆ %/5✉❝/✉5❛❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡

♣❡5%♣❡❝/✐✈❡✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ✸✸✭✻✮✿✶✵✽✷ ✕ ✶✵✾✹✳

❋❡♥/♦♥✲❖✬❈5❡❡✈②✱ ▼✳✱ ❊✳ ❙♦❛♥❡✱ ◆✳ ◆✐❝❤♦❧%♦♥ ❛♥❞ G✳ ❲✐❧❧♠❛♥✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❚❤✐♥❦✐♥❣✱ ❢❡❡❧✐♥❣

❛♥❞ ❞❡❝✐❞✐♥❣✿ ❚❤❡ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❡♠♦/✐♦♥% ♦♥ /❤❡ ❞❡❝✐%✐♦♥ ♠❛❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ♣❡5❢♦5♠❛♥❝❡ ♦❢

/5❛❞❡5%✳✑ ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❖/❣❛♥✐③❛.✐♦♥❛❧ ❇❡❤❛✈✐♦/ ✸✷✭✽✮✿✶✵✹✹ ✕ ✶✵✻✶✳

❋5❛❧❡✱ ❈✳✱ ▼✳ ▼❛5❝❡❧❧✐♥♦✱ ●✳▲✳ ▼❛③③✐ ❛♥❞ ❚✳ G5♦✐❡//✐✳ ✷✵✵✽✳ ✏❆ ♠♦♥/❤❧② ✐♥❞✐❝❛/♦5 ♦❢ /❤❡

❊✉5♦ ❛5❡❛ ●❉G✳✑ ❊✉/♦♣❡❛♥ ❯♥✐✈❡/,✐.② ■♥,.✐.✉.❡ ❲♦/❦✐♥❣ ?❛♣❡/, ✷✵✵✽✴✸✷✳

❋5♦♦/✱ ❑✳✱ ❏✳ ❆5❛❜❛❦❥✐%✱ ❙✳ ❈❛/❡% ❛♥❞ ❙✳ ▲❛✇5❡♥❝❡✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦♥ ❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❧♦%%

❛✈❡5%✐♦♥ ❢5♦♠ ❝✉55❡♥❝② ♣♦5/❢♦❧✐♦%✳✑ ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ?♦/.❢♦❧✐♦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥. ✸✽✭✶✮✿✻✵ ✕ ✻✽✳

❍✐❝❦%✱ ❏✳ ✶✾✸✾✳ ❱❛❧✉❡ ❛♥❞ ❈❛♣✐.❛❧✳ ❖①❢♦5❞ ❯♥✈❡5%✐/② G5❡%%✳

❍✐5%❤❧❡✐❢❡5✱ ❉✳ ✶✾✾✵✳ ✏❍❡❞❣✐♥❣ ♣5❡%%✉5❡ ❛♥❞ ❢✉/✉5❡% ♣5✐❝❡ ♠♦✈❡♠❡♥/% ✐♥ ❛ ❣❡♥❡5❛❧ ❡d✉✐✲

❧✐❜5✐✉♠ ♠♦❞❡❧✳✑ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡./✐❝❛ ✺✽✭✷✮✿✹✶✶✕✹✷✽✳

❍♦❧♠✱ ❙✳ ✶✾✼✾✳ ✏❆ %✐♠♣❧❡ %❡d✉❡♥/✐❛❧❧② 5❡❥❡❝/✐✈❡ ♠✉❧/✐♣❧❡ /❡%/ ♣5♦❝❡❞✉5❡✳✑ ❙❝❛♥❞✐♥❛✈✐❛♥

❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❙.❛.✐,.✐❝, ✻✭✷✮✿✻✺✕✼✵✳

❏♦♥❡%✱ ❈✳▼✳ ❛♥❞ ●✳ ❑❛✉❧✳ ✶✾✾✻✳ ✏❖✐❧ ❛♥❞ /❤❡ ❙/♦❝❦ ▼❛5❦❡/%✳✑ ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡

✺✶✭✷✮✿✹✻✸ ✕ ✹✾✶✳

❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥✱ ❘✳❑✳ ✷✵✵✹✳ ✏❉♦❡% ❖G❊❈ ▼❛//❡5❄ ❆♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡/5✐❝ ❆♥❛❧②%✐% ♦❢ ❖✐❧ G5✐❝❡%✳✑

❊♥❡/❣② ❏♦✉/♥❛❧ ✷✺✭✹✮✿✻✼ ✕ ✾✵✳

❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥✱ ❘✳❑✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❚❤❡ 5♦❧❡ ♦❢ ♠❛5❦❡/ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥/❛❧% ❛♥❞ %♣❡❝✉❧❛/✐♦♥ ✐♥ 5❡❝❡♥/

♣5✐❝❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡% ❢♦5 ❝5✉❞❡ ♦✐❧✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ?♦❧✐❝② ✸✾✭✶✮✿✶✵✺ ✕ ✶✶✺✳

❑❡②♥❡%✱ ❏✳ ✶✾✸✵✳ ❚/❡❛.✐,❡ ♦♥ ▼♦♥❡②✳ ▼❛❝♠✐❧❧❛♥ ▲♦♥❞♦♥✳

❑✐❧✐❛♥✱ ▲✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏◆♦/ ❛❧❧ ♦✐❧ ♣5✐❝❡ %❤♦❝❦% ❛5❡ ❛❧✐❦❡✿ ❉✐%❡♥/❛♥❣❧✐♥❣ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❛♥❞ %✉♣♣❧②

%❤♦❝❦% ✐♥ /❤❡ ❝5✉❞❡ ♦✐❧ ♠❛5❦❡/✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❆♠❡/✐❝❛♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✾✾✭✸✮✿✶✵✺✸✕✶✵✻✾✳

❑♦❧♦❞③✐❡❥✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳❑✳ ❑❛✉❢♠❛♥♥✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ✏❚❤❡ 5♦❧❡ ♦❢ /5❛❞❡5 ♣♦%✐/✐♦♥% ✐♥ %♣♦/ ❛♥❞

❢✉/✉5❡% ♣5✐❝❡% ❢♦5 ❲❚■✳✑ ❊♥❡/❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝, ✹✵✿✶✼✻ ✕ ✶✽✷✳

▲❡♠♠♦♥✱ ▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❊✳ G♦5/♥✐❛❣✉✐♥❛✳ ✷✵✵✻✳ ✏❈♦♥%✉♠❡5 ❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❛%%❡/ ♣5✐❝❡%✿ ❙♦♠❡

❡♠♣✐5✐❝❛❧ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❙.✉❞✐❡, ✶✾✭✹✮✿✶✹✾✾✕✶✺✷✾✳

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▲✐✱ ❍✳ ❛♥❞ ❙✳❳✳ ▲✐♥✳ ✷✵✶✶✳ ✏❉♦ ❡♠❡2❣✐♥❣ ♠❛2❦❡56 ♠❛55❡2 ✐♥ 5❤❡ ✇♦2❧❞ ♦✐❧ ♣2✐❝✐♥❣ 6②65❡♠❄

❊✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✐♠♣♦25❡❞ ❝2✉❞❡ ❜② ❈❤✐♥❛ ❛♥❞ ■♥❞✐❛✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② &♦❧✐❝② ✸✾✭✽✮✿✹✻✷✹ ✕ ✹✻✸✵✳

▲✐♥✱ ❙✳❳✳ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❚❛♠✈❛❦✐6✳ ✷✵✶✵✳ ✏❖R❊❈ ❛♥♥♦✉♥❝❡♠❡♥56 ❛♥❞ 5❤❡✐2 ❡✛❡❝56 ♦♥ ❝2✉❞❡ ♦✐❧

♣2✐❝❡6✳✑ ❊♥❡#❣② &♦❧✐❝② ✸✽✭✷✮✿✶✵✶✵ ✕ ✶✵✶✻✳

▼✐❛♥✱ ●✳▼✳ ❛♥❞ ❙✳ ❙❛♥❦❛2❛❣✉2✉6✇❛♠②✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏■♥✈❡65♦2 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ❛♥❞ 65♦❝❦ ♠❛2❦❡5

2❡6♣♦♥6❡ 5♦ ❡❛2♥✐♥❣6 ♥❡✇6✳✑ ❆❝❝♦✉♥-✐♥❣ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ✽✼✭✹✮✿✶✸✺✼ ✕ ✶✸✽✹✳

▼✐5❝❤❡❧❧✱ ❏✳✱ ❘✳❏✳ ❙♠✐5❤✱ ▼✳❘✳ ❲❡❛❧❡✱ ❙✳ ❲2✐❣❤5 ❛♥❞ ❊✳▲✳ ❙❛❧❛③❛2✳ ✷✵✵✺✳ ✏❆♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛5♦2

♦❢ ♠♦♥5❤❧② ●❉R ❛♥❞ ❛♥ ❡❛2❧② ❡65✐♠❛5❡ ♦❢ \✉❛25❡2❧② ●❉R ❣2♦✇5❤✳✑ ❚❤❡ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝

❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ✶✶✺✭✺✵✶✮✿❋✶✵✽✕❋✶✷✾✳

❖✬❈♦♥♥❡❧❧✱ R✳●✳❏✳ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❚❡♦✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏■♥65✐5✉5✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥✈❡65♦26✱ ♣❛65 ♣❡2❢♦2♠❛♥❝❡✱ ❛♥❞

❞②♥❛♠✐❝ ❧♦66 ❛✈❡26✐♦♥✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❛♥❞ ◗✉❛♥-✐-❛-✐✈❡ ❆♥❛❧②:✐: ✹✹✿✶✺✺✕✶✽✽✳

❘❡❜♦2❡❞♦✱ ❏✳❈✳ ✷✵✶✷✳ ✏▼♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ♦✐❧ ♣2✐❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❡①❝❤❛♥❣❡ 2❛5❡ ❝♦✲♠♦✈❡♠❡♥56✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧

♦❢ &♦❧✐❝② ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ✸✹✭✸✮✿✹✶✾ ✕ ✹✹✵✳

❘♦♠❛♥♦✱ ❏✳R✳✱ ❆✳▼✳ ❙❤❛✐❦❤ ❛♥❞ ▼✳ ❲♦❧❢✳ ✷✵✶✵✳ ✏❍②♣♦5❤❡6✐6 5❡65✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡52✐❝6✳✑

❆♥♥✉❛❧ ❘❡✈✐❡✇ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝: ✷✭✶✮✿✼✺✕✶✵✹✳

❙❝❤❡✐♥❦♠❛♥✱ ❏✳❆✳ ❛♥❞ ❲✳ ❳✐♦♥❣✳ ✷✵✵✸✳ ✏❖✈❡2❝♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ 6♣❡❝✉❧❛5✐✈❡ ❜✉❜❜❧❡6✳✑

❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ &♦❧✐-✐❝❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠② ✶✶✶✭✻✮✿✶✶✽✸ ✕ ✶✷✷✵✳

❙❝❤♠❡❧✐♥❣✱ ▼✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏■♥✈❡65♦2 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ❛♥❞ 65♦❝❦ 2❡5✉2♥6✿ ❙♦♠❡ ✐♥5❡2♥❛5✐♦♥❛❧ ❡✈✐✲

❞❡♥❝❡✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♠♣✐#✐❝❛❧ ❋✐♥❛♥❝❡ ✶✻✭✸✮✿✸✾✹✕✹✵✽✳

❙✐♠♦♥✱ ❉✳R✳ ❛♥❞ ❘✳❆✳ ❲✐❣❣✐♥6 ■■■✳ ✷✵✵✶✳ ✏❙✫R ❢✉5✉2❡6 2❡5✉2♥6 ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥52❛2② 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5

✐♥❞✐❝❛5♦26✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✉-✉#❡: ▼❛#❦❡-: ✷✶✭✺✮✿✹✹✼✕✹✻✷✳

❲❛♥❣✱ ❈✳ ✷✵✵✶✳ ✏■♥✈❡65♦2 6❡♥5✐♠❡♥5 ❛♥❞ 2❡5✉2♥ ♣2❡❞✐❝5❛❜✐❧✐5② ✐♥ ❛❣2✐❝✉❧5✉2❛❧ ❢✉5✉2❡6

♠❛2❦❡56✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❋✉-✉#❡: ▼❛#❦❡-: ✷✶✭✶✵✮✿✾✷✾✕✾✺✷✳

❲❤❛❧❡②✱ ❘✳ ❊✳ ✷✵✵✵✳ ✏❚❤❡ ✐♥✈❡65♦2 ❢❡❛2 ❣❛✉❣❡✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ &♦#-❢♦❧✐♦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥-

✷✻✭✸✮✿✶✷ ✕ ✶✼✳

❲❤❛❧❡②✱ ❘✳ ❊✳ ✷✵✵✾✳ ✏❯♥❞❡265❛♥❞✐♥❣ 5❤❡ ❱■❳✳✑ ❏♦✉#♥❛❧ ♦❢ &♦#-❢♦❧✐♦ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥-

✸✺✭✸✮✿✾✽ ✕ ✶✵✺✳

❩❤❛♥❣✱ ❇✳ ❛♥❞ ❳ ▲✐✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✏❘❡❝❡♥5 ❤✐❦❡6 ✐♥ ♦✐❧✲❡\✉✐5② ♠❛2❦❡5 ❝♦22❡❧❛5✐♦♥6✿ ❚2❛♥6✐5♦2②

♦2 ♣❡2♠❛♥❡♥5❄✑ ❊♥❡#❣② ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝: ♣✳ ✐♥ ♣2❡66✳

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Highlights

• WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices from Jan 2002 to Dec 2013 are examined.

• A sentiment index is constructed following Baker and Wurgler (2006).

• Sentiment is found to influence WTI and Brent crude oil prices.

• Results are statistically robust using multiple hypothesis testing.