1. psychological traps in decision-making orientation mep5
Post on 17-Oct-2015
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Decision making processes can be affected by flaws in decision thinking
These flaws are psychological trapsthey are unconscious
We can only learn to be alert to them and compensate for them
These traps work in isolation or can amplify one another
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Giving disproportionate weight to the first information you receive
Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments
Anchors take many guises. A comment, or statistic, or stereotype, or a past event, or trend
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View a problem from different perspectives. Use alternative starting points
Think about problem on your own before consulting others (to avoid anchoring by their ideas)
Seek information and opinions from a variety of people to widen frame of reference
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Favoring alternatives that perpetuate the existing situation
Comfortable, not upsetting current balance Source is in our desire to protect our egos
from damage, less psychological risk Taking action (responsibility) opens us to
criticism and to regret
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Ask if the status quo really serves your objectives
Ask if youd choose the status quo if it werent the status quo
Avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from status quo
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Making choices in a way that justifies past, flawed choices
Acknowledging poor decision in professional life is a public matter, inviting criticism
If penalties for decision that may lead to unfavorable outcomes are severe, this trap is strong
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Get views of people who werent involved in the original decisions
Admitting to mistakes is habit to be cultivated
Dont cultivate a failure-fearing culture. Look at quality of decision making, not just the quality of the outcomes
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Seeking information that supports your existing point of view
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Check that all evidence is treated with equal rigor
Ask a respected colleague to argue against your potential decisiondevils advocate.
Whats the strongest reason to do something else? The second strongest reason? The third? Consider the position with an open mind.
Avoid yes-men
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The Overconfidence Trap: Even though most of us are not very good at making estimates or forecasts, we actually tend to be overconfident about our accuracy, leading to errors in judgment and bad decisions
The Prudence Trap: Over-cautiousness, or prudence. When faced with high-stakes decisions, we adjust our estimates or forecasts just to be on the safe side
The Recallability Trap: We frequently base our predictions about future events on our memory of past events, so can be overly influenced by dramatic eventsthose that leave a strong impression on our memory
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At every stage of the decision-making process, psychological traps can influence the choices we make
These traps can work in isolation, but also in concert
A dramatic first impression might anchor our thinking, and then we might selectively seek out confirming evidence to justify our initial impression
We make a hasty decision, and that decision establishes a new status quo. As our sunk costs mount, we become trapped, unable to find a new and possibly better course
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The best protection against all psychological trapsin isolation or in combinationis awareness
Build discipline into your decision-making process to uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgment
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