1 project i econ 240c spring 2005. 2 issues parsimonious models 2005: march or april 9.3 wks or...

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Project IProject I

Econ 240c Spring 2005Econ 240c Spring 2005

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IssuesIssues Parsimonious modelsParsimonious models 2005: March or April 9.3 wks or 8.9 wks2005: March or April 9.3 wks or 8.9 wks TrendTrend Residual seasonalityResidual seasonality Forecasts: sharp peaks or broad peaks?Forecasts: sharp peaks or broad peaks? Model selectionModel selection The labor marketThe labor market

TrendTrend Broad peaksBroad peaks

33

∆ ∆ durationduration Jesse Smith: ar(1) ar(4) ar(24) ar(36)Jesse Smith: ar(1) ar(4) ar(24) ar(36) Carl-Einar Thorner; Joonho Shin; Calvin Yeung; Carl-Einar Thorner; Joonho Shin; Calvin Yeung;

Connor Gleason: ma(1) ma(4) ma(24) ma(36)Connor Gleason: ma(1) ma(4) ma(24) ma(36) Sarab Khalsa: ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2)Sarab Khalsa: ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2)

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∆ ∆ lndurationlnduration Matt Stevens: ma(1) ma(4) sma(24) sma(36)Matt Stevens: ma(1) ma(4) sma(24) sma(36) Yana Ten: ma(1) ma(4) ar(24) ar(36)Yana Ten: ma(1) ma(4) ar(24) ar(36) Ashley Hedberg: ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2)Ashley Hedberg: ar(1) ar(2) ma(1) ma(2) Aren Megerdichian: ar(1) ma(1) ma(2) ma(3)Aren Megerdichian: ar(1) ma(1) ma(2) ma(3)

55

66

77

88

99

1010

1111

1212

1313

1414

1515

1616

1717

1818

1919

Arma(2,2)

Trend&ARMA(2,3)

2020

2121

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