1. inflation and growth annual percentage change source: statistics sweden

1. Inflation and growthAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

1971-1990 1995-2005 1971-1990 1995-2005CPI 8.6 1.1 2.8 1.0GDP 2.1 2.8 1.4 1.2

Standard deviationAverage

2. Inflation: outcome and target Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Note Inflation measured as CPI.

3. Inflation in Sweden, Norway and Finland

Annual percentage change

Note. Inflation measured as HICP.

Source: Statistics FInland, Statistics Norway and Statistics Sweden

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

SwedenNorwayFinland

4. Consumer prices for goodsExcluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change

Source: EurostatNote. The data used is HICP - non-energy industrial goods.

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3SwedenNorwayFinland

5. Unit labour costs and labour productivity in business sector

Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Unit labour costsProductivity

Note The broken line and grey bar represent the Riksbank’s forecast (IR06:3).

6. Forecasts of inflation in 2005 at various times: the Riksbank and an average of

other forecasters Annual average

Sources: Consensus Inc., Ministry of Finance, LO and Statistics Sweden

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

April 2004 June 2004 Oct 2004 Jan 2005 April 2005 July 2005 Nov 2005 Dec 20050.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Average excluding the RiksbankThe RiksbankOutcome

7. Inflation and inflation expectations

Annual percentage change

Sources: Prospera Research AB and Statistics Sweden

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5CPIInflation expectations

8. Consumer prices (CPI) and house prices

Annual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

House pricesCPI

9. The repo rate is assumed to risePer cent

Source: The Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

1

2

3

4

5

Repo rate

Repo rate assumption, 12 October 2006

10. Good international growthAnnual percentage change

Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

80 85 90 95 00 050

1

2

3

4

5

6OutcomeForecastAverage 1980-2005

11. Good growth in Sweden tooAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

OutcomeForecastAverage 1980-2005

12. Inflation increases graduallyAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4CPI

UND1X

13. High productivityAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7OutcomeTrend

14. Fiscal policy Stimulates demand and supply

Higher growth and private consumption

Increased employment and greater supply of labour

Overall minor effects on inflation

15. Repo rate is raised to 2.75 per cent Favourable prospects for the

economy: good growth and rising employment.

Monetary policy is expansionary. Falling energy prices give an inflation

rate below target two years ahead, but after this inflation will rise.