1 eu-info day on tews, paris, france – 31 january 2006 un/isdr platform for the promotion early...
Post on 27-Mar-2015
215 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1 EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 2006
UN/ISDR Platform for the Promotion Early Warning & the tsunami early warning systems in Indian Ocean
Stefanie Dannenmann & Reid BasherUN/ISDR International Strategy for Disaster ReductionPlatform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW), Bonn
Taking a systems approach to disaster risk New views on early warning Role of science and technology
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20062
What is a disaster?
Disaster: “A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses
which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources”
Natural hazardStorm, flood, hurricane drought, volcanic eruption, earthquake,
tsunami, landslide, etc)
Vulnerability of society to the hazard (due to location, environment, lack of
preparedness or capacity)
DISASTER
+
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20063
Disaster risks – growing and changing
But death tolls in drought and flood have reduced - through early warning, food aid and preparedness
Disasters are mostly weather-related
Number of events 2.3
Economic losses 7.0
Insured losses 15.7
Increases; 1990s versus 1960s
Events of the last 12 months Sumatra tsunamiHurricanes in Gulf and Asia; Floods in India and Europe; Fires in North America, EuropeEarthquake in Pakistan
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20064
Reasons for rising disaster risks ?
More people and poor people in risky and unsustainable situations
Unsafe development: floodplain settlement, coastal exploitation, mega-city growth, unsafe houses, wetland destruction, river channeling, deforestation
Soil erosion and fertility decline, desertification Exacerbated by poverty and disease, conflict and
population displacement
Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development
….Increasing vulnerability
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20065
A systems approach to reducing risks
Shift the focus from hazards to risk management Understand the nature of the risks - both the hazards and the
vulnerabilities Put in place the tools and methods to assess, predict,
ameliorate, and respond to risk, Ensure strong political support, administrative capacity and
community engagement
Since disasters are a human phenomenon, we can change our ways to reduce our risks
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20066
A linear systems model – tsunami early warning system
Monitoring(initial state) System model
(time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic)
Ocean wave propagation, coastal run-up
Seismicity, sea level Z(x, y, t) +
Behaviour (complex)
Knowledge, belief, emotion, preparedness
Issues for tsunami EWS: - No seismic prediction, high speed of process; - Poor data on initial state (sea level and coastal zone);
- High uncertainty and false alarm rate.
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20067
The linear paradigm –scientifically appealing but deficient
Operated by scientists and technologists; often with weak linkages to those in need of warnings
Difficult to communicate uncertainty, false alarms, etc Focus is on the hazard, with little emphasis on the vulnerabilities Few mechanisms for feedback from users and those at risk Little empowerment or engagement of those at risk Mistrust of experts and authorities
Experience of past failures shows that effective early warning systems must be both systematic and people-centred
Recall the Hurricane Katrina disaster ……
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20068
An integrated systems model – early warning system
Monitoring(initial state) System model
(time evolving) Prediction (probabilistic)
Knowledge of hazard
Communities
Institutional commitment and
mechanisms
Mitigation, education,
preparedness
Research
Response behaviours
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 20069
The four components of people-centred EW systems
EW systems typically fail in the communication and preparedness elements
In Hurricane Katrina, the risk knowledge also failed to effectively penetrate public and policymaker consciousness
With the Indian Ocean tsunami, failures occurred in all four elements
Risk assessment Warning service
Communication Preparedness
+
++ +
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200610
Priority projects of ISDR Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW)
$11M project on strengthening of early warning in tsunami-affected countries (with other UN and regional organisations)
Global survey of early warning system gaps and needs, for UN Secretary General (he called for global system for “all-hazards and all countries”)
Database of proposals for new projects on EW systems Third International Early Warning Conference, Bonn, 27-29 March 2006 Coordinate implementation of early warning parts of the Hyogo
Framework for Action Advocate systematic, people-centred early warning systems
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200611
Initiated by ISDR and UNESCO-IOC, as part of the UN Flash Appeal UNESCO-IOC leads technical elements ISDR undertakes the programmatic and coordination parts of the project Involves all of ISDR including Africa and Asia outreach offices; effort led by
Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning (PPEW)
Early Warning Strengthening ProjectUN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of
Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200612
Pledges were made for more than US$ 11.4 million towards this initiative.
Strong support: Japan (US$ 4 M), Sweden (US$ 1.4 M), Norway (US$ 1.4 M), European Commission (US$ 2.6 M), Finland (USD 1.3 M), Germany (US$ 0.39 M), and Netherlands (US$ 0.35 M)
In 2005, the total amount received is US$ 10,507,208 To date, US$ 7,970,410 is committed and/or spent.
Early Warning Strengthening ProjectUN Flash Appeal Project: Evaluation and Strengthening of
Early Warning Systems in Countries Affected by the 26 December 2004 Tsunami
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200613
Implementing Partners
UNDP
UNESCO-IOC
UNEP
UNESCAP
UNU-EHS
WMO
ABU
ADRC
ADPC
CRED
AIDMI
University of Geneva
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200614
1. Core system implementation
2. Integrated risk management
3. Public awareness and education
4. Community-level approaches
5. Project coordination
Project strategic framework
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200615
Role of science and technology (S&T) in disaster risk reduction
History of S&T leadership in disaster risk reduction Science-based agencies active in the ISDR But social sciences needs and inputs not well represented Hyogo framework identifies S&T needs Need for a comprehensive disaster research agenda GEO/GEOSS adopts disaster reduction as a key focus British proposal for International Science Panel on Natural Hazards;
followed up by G8 statement Moves to get S&T systematically addressed in new ISDR System
EU-Info Day on TEWS, Paris, France – 31 January 200616
Conclusions
New thinking on disaster risk; recognition of its role in development; focus on developing “resilience” to risk
The tsunami early warning issue is part of much larger disaster agenda – must plug in to this
Effective early warning = systematic and people-centred Broader view of early warning and its potential Need for more systematic approaches; in research, planning, cost-benefit
analysis, and implementation Critical role for science and technology
www.unisdr-earlywarning.org www.unisdr.org
top related