1 caddis - risk-based prioritization and diagnosing the risk drivers susan cormier, ph.d....

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CADDIS - Risk-based Prioritization and Diagnosing the Risk Drivers

Susan Cormier, Ph.D. NCEA-Cincinnatiand the whole CADDIS team

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Assessments of Cumulative Causes, CADDIS,

and a Case

Cumulative Causes

Cumulative Risks

3Given this cause, what is the probable effect?

Risk Given C what will E be?– Given what we know of the mixture or the

individual components of the mixture, what are the probabilities and types of effects that may occur?

Given this effect, what is the probable cause?

Cause Given E what was C?– Given what we know of the effects, what is

the likely exposure scenario or combination of exposures that caused these effects?

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Cumulative Causes

Cumulative Risks

Different Questions Different Analyses

Different Logic

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Cumulative Risks

Cumulative Causes

Different Kinds of Assessments

Different Questions Different Analyses

Different Logic

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

Problem Detection

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

Problem Resolution

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

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Analysis from Effect to Cause

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

Analysis from Cause to Effect

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

Analysis from Cause to Effect

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Problem Resolution

Problem Detection

Analysis from Effect to Cause

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Condition Assessment

Problem Detection

Causal Assessment

Environmental Epidemiology

Predictive Assessment

Risk

Outcome Assessment

Environmental Management

Problem Resolution

Problem Resolution

Criteria Setting, Risk Assessment

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Condition Assessment

Biological

Problem Detection

Causal Assessment

Environmental Epidemiology

Predictive AssessmentOutcome Assessment

Environmental Management

Problem Resolution

Problem Resolution

Meet Aquatic Life Standards

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Condition Assessment

Problem Detection

Causal Assessment

Environmental Epidemiology

Predictive Assessment

Management

Risk

Outcome Assessment

Environmental Management

Problem Resolution

SourceCause

Outcome

Endangered Species

Problem Resolution

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Condition Assessment

Problem Detection

Causal Assessment

Environmental Epidemiology

Predictive Assessment

Management

Risk

Outcome Assessment

Environmental Management

Problem Resolution

Outcome

Hurricane Approaching

Problem Resolution

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CADDIS: EPA Website for Ecological Causal Assessment

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Analysis from Cause to Effect

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Problem Resolution

Problem Detection

Analysis from Effect to Cause

Causal Assessments

Predictive Assessments

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Ecoepidemiological assessments reflect cumulative causes and effects

CADDIS is a guide to causal inference for specific cases

larvae adult

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

www.epa.gov/caddis

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Home Page

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Step-by Step Guide Introduction

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Candidate CausesAlso useful for

Risk Assessment

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Analyzing DataAlso useful for

Risk Assessment

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Conceptual Models Also useful for

Risk Assessment

Databases

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

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Stream Organisms

Degraded Stream

Organisms

mayfly caddisflystonefly

blackfly

pouch snail

chironomid

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Case Study - Willimantic River, CT

#

Clean Water Act305b report to Congress

TMDLs target Cu, Pb, Zn

POTW

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Roaring Brook, Willimantic River Watershed

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Below POTW

Willimantic River

Above POTW

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Invertebrate Index Scores as % of reference site RB1

0

20

40

60

80

100

RB1 FB2 FB5 MR1 MR2 MR3 WL1 WL2 WL3 WL4 SR HR TR

Moderately impaired

Define the Biological Impairment

First appearance of downstream impairment

Compared to further upstream

Not impaired

Impaired

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Willimantic River Study Area

• Area of concern

• Upstream impairment identified

POTW

#

MR1 MR3

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

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• Specific Causation– Causal: Did smoking cause my cancer– Risk: Will my smoking cause cancer

• General Causation– Causal: Does smoking cause cancer– Risk: Can smoking cause cancer

Types of Causation

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• General Causation– Does C cause E– Can C cause E

• Specific Causation– Did C cause E– Will C cause E

Types of Causation

Evidence from the Case

Evidence from

the Elsewhere

Sources of Data for Evidence

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Develop and Evaluate Evidence

• Refutation

• Diagnosis

• Weight of evidence

36Percent Fines

Pro

babi

lity

of

Obs

ervi

ng <

9 E

PT

Tax

a

0 20 40 60 80 100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Exposure Characterization

Cause/Effect Model

Logistic Regression MAIA Probability of <9 EPT for %fines

Risk of effect

Risk

Assessment

37Percent Fines

Pro

babi

lity

of

Obs

ervi

ng <

9 E

PT

Tax

a

0 20 40 60 80 100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Exposure Characterization

Cause/Effect Model

Logistic Regression MAIA Probability of <9 EPT for %finesCausal

Assessment

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Middle River

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Furnace Brook

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List of Candidate Causes

1. toxicity from metals, ammonia (NH3), or a complex mixture

2. high flows removal of organisms during

3. settled particles filling interstitial habitat

4. low dissolved oxygen

5. thermal stress 6. altered food resources favoring filter feeders

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Weight of evidence

• Types of evidence – Adapted from Hill’s Considerations

• Scoring– Source of information

• Observation• Manipulation• General Knowledge

– Quality of evidence• From the case or elsewhere• Specificity, Consistency and other qualities

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Willimantic case study Metals NH3 Flow SiltLow DO

Temp Food Episodic

Mix

Spatial/Temporal Co-Occurrence

+ - + - - - + +

Evidence of Biological Mechanism

+ + - - + + + +

Causal Pathway - + - - + + +

Stressor-Response from the Field

+ - - + +

Manipulation of Exposure + + +

Verified Predictions + + +

Stressor-Response from Other Field Studies

- - +

Stressor-Response from Laboratory

+ + - - +

Consistency of Evidence - - - - - + + + + +

Weighted Body of Evidence

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Invertebrate Index Scores as % of reference site RB1

0

20

40

60

80

100

RB1 FB2 FB5 MR1 MR2 MR3 WL1 WL2 WL3 WL4 SR HR TR

Cause: Toxic mixture

Source: Broken effluent pipe

Moderately impaired

Not impaired

Impaired

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Unknown source

Sustained exposure

Episodic exposure

Ammonia levels greater upstream

Cr Cd & CuAl, Fe, Pb,

Ni, ZnAmmonia Mixture

Cr benchmark exceeded, but form not likely hexavalent Cr

Cu & Cd benchmarks

exceeded, but unimpaired sites also exceeded

Al, Fe, Pb, Ni, Zn did not exceed toxic benchmarks

Ammonia did not exceed toxic levels

After repairing broken pipe, Al, Cd, Cr, Pb, Fe, Zn decreased &

more species observed

Death or reproductive

failure

Loss of invertebrate

species

~ ~~~

~

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Invertebrate Index Scores as % of reference site RB1

0

20

40

60

80

100

RB1 FB2 FB5 MR1 MR2 MR3 WL1 WL2 WL3 WL4 SR HR TR

Moderately impaired

Not impaired

Impaired

Cause: Heat &Altered food resources

Sources: Impoundments

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Predictive Assessment

Risk: Repairing broken effluent pipe and reducing metal release from POTW—no risk assessment, legally required remedies and no associated risks.

Expectation: reduce toxic effects, returning this segment to condition similar to those upstream. Moderate effects from stressors associated unless old mill dams were

removed.

Risk: Removing dams: risk assessments of removal options necessary because unmanaged release of sediment would bury downstream reach and may contain toxic substances

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Predictive AssessmentManagement: • Repair pipe —None, responsible parties complied. • More stringent NPDES permit at POTW—none,

responsible parties complied and monitoring of effluent continues.

• Removal of dams—Due to concerns about cost, social acceptance, and uncertainty of causes, CT DEP chose to study effects of impervious surfaces and dams on biological condition throughout the state. Small dams could provide aesthetically attractive cascades. Consultation with public would be required for optimizing benefits of selective dam removal.

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The Basic EA Framework

Condition Assessment

Outcome Assessment

Predictive Assessments

Causal Assessments

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After fixing the illicit discharge

Willimantic River WL 1

0102030405060708090

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

% o

f Ref

eren

ce S

iteMiddle River MR3

0

20

40

60

80

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

% o

f Ref

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ce S

ite

Meets Water Quality Criteria

Meets Water Quality Criteria

Willimantic River WL 1

0102030405060708090

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

% o

f Ref

eren

ce S

iteMiddle River MR3

0

20

40

60

80

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

% o

f Ref

eren

ce S

ite

Meets Water Quality Criteria

Meets Water Quality Criteria

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CADDIS is a guide to causal inference for specific cases

www.epa.gov/caddis

cormier.susan@epa.gov

513-569-7995

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SHORT COURSE: Causal Analysis/Stressor Identification

by Susan Cormier

National Center for Environmental Assessment, USEPA, Cincinnati

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