0m hl.. fl ecte 0f0m hl..fl ecte 0f mar 151990 annual report theater missile defense d _ ct,...

0M hL.. ,FL ECTE 0fMAR 151990 ANNUAL REPORT

THEATER MISSILE DEFENSE

_ CONTRACT NO.: DASG60-89-C-0019D ct, 10 FEB 1989 TO 9 MARCH 1990

The objective ofthis effort is ta'support.;he USASDC TMD Applications Project

Office (TMDAPO) in the-analysis of Optical Concepts that are being proposed ordeveloped for application to Theater Missile Defense (TMD). The effort consists ofresponding to specific requests for analysis of systems involving optical sensors. These

N analyses may include the identification of performance requirements, definition of' relevant issues and/or recommended procedures for resolving the issues. This annualTe

report, will be divided into two major parts.4Thifirst pary,_will present an overview of the

0 major tasks undertaken; and the second part, will consist of appendices containing thenarrative response or the presentation material developed in support of each of thesetasks.

PART 1 -OVERVIEW.'

1.1 Review of" A Theater Application of LWIR Technology For The Defense AgainstICBM's/SLBM's".

The first task undertaken during this reporting period, was to review an airborne

optical concept submitted by Boeing Aerospace for presentation to the Theater MissileDefense Conference in London. The paper titled "A Theater Application of LWIRTechnology For The Defense Against ICBM's/SLBM's" was subsequently withdrawndue to several key technical errors identified by this NRC review. The request for reviewcame from the AOA Project Office Manager. A summary of NRC major concerns andissues with this paper are included in Appendix A.

1.2 Review of MBB AIRS Concept,

At the Governments request NRC attended presentations of the AIRS Concept byMBB and prepared a review for TMDAPO. The review concluded that the study offered

useful and correct results and that the AIRS Concept was the most effective solution forthe MBB Option V threat. Major areas of concern noted were related to a combination of

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unrealistic requirements and assumptions which led to significant cost for AIRS. Thisreview resulted in recommendations for several additional efforts on the part of NRC to

resolve the major issues remaining. Subsequent tasks were considered in a more

general context rather than tied to the AIRS concept and this process eventually led to

the Task of defining the locator concept, discussed in one of the following paragraphs.A more detailed description of the conclusions of this review are presented in Appendix

IB.

3 1.3 Evaluation of British Aerospace Corporation (BAC) Signature Results

NRC was asked to evaluate radiometric signatures presented by BAC. The

review of these signatures suggested two possible explanations for inconsistently high

3 values including: 1) that ICBM temperatures were used for the calculation or 2) that the

scale on one of the Figures was in error by an order of magnitude. These possibilities,

the analysis leading to them and assessment of their relative likelihood are summarized

in the memo presented in Appendix C.

1.4 Review of Boost Phase Radiometric Signatures . ,

NRC was requested to review the available sources of Boost Phase Signatures.

This review concluded that those presented in NRC-TL-86-088 represented the bestsignatures currently available. The process used to derive these signatures as well as

typical signatures obtained by integrating the results presented in this report aresummarized in the presentation included as Appendix D to this report.

1.5 Low Cost Airborne Tactical Optical Reconnaissance (Locator) System.

As a result of the discussions following the review of the MBB AIRS Concept, it

became apparent that there was a need to establish a good reference point for defining

the capabilities and cost of a "Low Cost" Tactical Airborne Optical Sensor System. Inorder to establish this reference point, NRC undertook the task of defining and analyzing

3a low cost optical system which would take advantage of large signatures and stereoviewing and would be limited to the existing state-of-the-art. This study defined a

reference performance for such a system and developed the tools required for

comparing cost performance trade-offs. The results of this analysis are included in the

3presentation material presented in Appendix E of this report.

3 1 TMO ANNUAL RPT VAR90.2

II

PART II - APPENDIXES

The Appendixes which follow include the written material and presentationsdescribed above. The written material is reproduced exactly as it was delivered toTMDAPO. The presentations include the original presentation charts used to presentthe information to TMDAPO with brief facing page text indicating the major points made

by each chart.

III

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NJSSTAT2I EN "A" per Judd CarpenterI "J;) "C. "

US Army Strategic Defense Conmand

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APPENDIX A

IIIIIIIIIII

II* APPENDIX A

Summary of Critical ISSUES CONCERNING BOEING AEROSPACE PAPERTITLED "A Theater Application of LWIR Technology for Defense AgainstICBM's/SLBM's", December 19, 1989 by Darrel L. Choate and Timothy E. Peters.I1. The basic premise of this paper is to add an AOS element to SNIA's TMDAS

architecture to enhance defense against ICBM's and SLBM's. However,defense against these threats is not the recognized mission of Theater MissileDefense. If it is assumed that the nuclear warheads on these threats have beenreplaced with conventional munitions, then their effectiveness is questionable,

considering the CEP's quoted in table 111-2 and the target set to be defended.Thus this paper is based on a set of unrealistic assumptions.

2. The SS-12 and SS-23 are being eliminated by the INF Treaty, hence thesethreats should not be included in table 11-3.

I 3. The fields of regard of the AOS platforms do not provide stereo viewing over thecoverage area as stated in the text and furthermore, the easterly orientation

* does not account for the solar exclusion issue.

4. The LWIR sensor specifications are a gross over design for the TMD threats.The paper does not justify acquisition range, hard earth angle requirement,angular resolution and measurement accuracy requirements. This sensor, asdesigned would require very many detectors per platform which is majorproduction issue at this time. It should be further noted that these specificationsare more stressing than the current AOA sensor, and hence it is questionablewhether this design could be fielded in the time stated or that it represents pre-1985 technology as stated in the paper on page 9.

5. If an SLBM threat is postulated, the attack corridors would certainly be arrangedto outflank the defensive deployment orientated toward the east, as presented

i in the paper.

6. The statement that increased battle time inherently decreases the interceptor's

difficulty and therefore cost is not necessarily true. To achieve increased battle

UI

space requires increased interceptor velocity and improved cross rangemaneuver capability. It also requires longer seeker acquisition range, sinceclosing velocities are higher.

7. The functional techniques and performance is somewhat ambiguous andquestionable. Track on multiple objects in a threat cloud is to be represented bya single track file (implying limited resolution of each threat object). However,detailed independent angle and radiometric data is necessary on each object toperform exoatmospheric LWIR discrimination. In another part of the paper,discrimination is said to use atmospheric deceleration of different weightobjects. Not only does this disagree with previous statements, but for theengagements presented to occur, exoatmospheric discrimination is necessary

* to launch the interceptors.

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IIIIIIIi APPENDIX C

II NRC EVALUATION OF BAC SIGNATURE

IIIIIIIII

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I APPENDIX C -NRC EVALUATION OF BAC SIGNATURE

ITO: Ron Patrick

* FROM: Herb Hunter

SUBJECT: BAC Signature Evaluation

Reference: Excerps from Wolverene Briefing, 30 May 1989 by Britishi Aerospace Limited

DATE: 17 July 1989IThis memo summarizes a "sanity check" which has been performed to

understand the apparently high values of the signatures shown on the right hand sideof Figure 89-0198-212 on page 36 of the Reference Document. The analysis shows 2possible explanations: 1) That ICBM temperatures were used for the calculation, or 2)That the scale is in error by an order of magnitude. It is felt that the first of these is themost likely explanation.

From the dimensions of the objects, we may infer that the nose-on area is

approximately 0.32 to 0.4 square meters. It also may be assumed, that the emissivitylies between 0.7 and 0.95, thus, it is reasonable to assume a nose-on emissivity area

of approximately 0.3 square meters. If we also assume a black body, we can infer thetemperature from the radiometric intensities presented in the Figure. If we assume theintensity is a constant for the lower band in the left hand signature, as shown in the

overlays in Figure 1, we obtain a constant temperature of 409 degrees. The uppercurve on the overlay corresponds to the high-band signature under the same

assumptions used to derive this temperature. Since they are in reasonably goodagreement with the solid lines on the reference Figure, we conclude that the Figure onthe left hand side is consistent with the temperature of 409 degrees. Figure 2, is a

typical temperature history for a conical object without an ascent shroud. It shows that400 degrees is a reasonable temperature for this object. Note, that Figure 2 presentsboth the average temperature and the temperature of a number cf stations on the

1 vehicle. The symbol "Y" represents the T**4 average temperature, "Ti" is the

stagnation point temperature, "T2" and "T3" are temperatures at 2 conical stations and

"T4" is the base temperature. Note also, that T1 will be considerably higher than the

I

II

other temperatures, but it occurs on a very small area and therefore has very littleeffect on the signature. The most appropriate temperature for our present comparisonis the average temperature. This will remain true for all the plots of the temperatures in

* this memo.

Following the same procedure with the plots on the right hand side of Figure 89-0198-212, we approximate the nose-on intensity with the 3 straight lines shown on theright hand side of the overlay in Figure 1. This yields temperatures ranging from 1100to 1720 degrees which produce high-band signatures indicated by the lower curve onthis overlay. Again, the agreement between the approximate model and thetemperature shown in the Figure is reasonably good. However, the temperatures areconsiderably higher than expected for the velocities encountered by this vehicle. Thiscan be seen from Figures 3 and 4 which show typical temperature histories for conicalvehicles with and without ascent shrouds at ranges of 500 and 900 kilometers. Inthese figures, the average temperature indicated by the Y's is considerably smallerthan 1700 degrees. Figure 5 presents typical temperature histories for a similarvehicle on an ICBM trajectory. Examination of this Figure shows that the 1700 degreetemperature is much more compatible with this range than with the typical tacticalranges shown in Figures 3 and 4. Thus, one reasonable explanation for theapparently high values of the signature, is that they were calculated for ICBM velocityinstead of tactical velocities.

SAnother possibility investigated was that the scale was in error by an order ofmagnitude. Again, the lower band signature was approximated by the solid lineshown in Figure 1, but the intensity value was reduced by an order of magnitude. Thisresulted in a temperature ranging between 631 and 815 degrees K and produced thehigh-band signature shown on the overlay presented in Figure 6. Examination of

Figures 3 and 4 shows that these temperatures (indicated by the arrow labeled scale"0.1) are in considerable better agreement with tactical missile ranges than the

* temperatures calculated using the temperature scale shown on the original Figure.Figure 6 shows reasonable agreement between the approximate IR signature.However, comparison of Figure 1 and Figure 6 suggests that the most likelyexplanation is that ICBM temperatures were used to make the calculations on the right

I hand side of the Figure in the Reference document.

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