0 0100 200 300 400 500 estimated damage (us$ billion...

Can we measure the Resilience ofCoastal Urban Form to

Climate Change using a design tool?a Jamaican Case Study

Case study and methods

Few adaptation studies confirm pre-emptive adaptation responses through planning and designto deal with the impacts of both slow-onset (e.g., rising temperature and/or sea level) and rapid-onset (e.g., storm surges) climatic events (Figure 2). Both events and their impacts vary spatiallyand temporarily depending on the characteristics of an area's urban form, making future cityfutures uncertain and city planning challenging. In particular, the impacts of rapid-onset eventson built environments are still yet to be determined (ref). Understanding how current urban formscan be resilient using planning and design is imperative.

Resilience refers to a system's capacity to absorb disturbance and restructure while undergoingchange (Adger et al., 2011). The underlying idea of most definitions, including in climate changeand disaster literature, focus on resistance to disturbance and a system's inherent ability toreturn to an equilibrium state after a disturbance. Holling (1996) called this bounce-back orengineering resilience. In contrast, ecological resilience or bounce-forward highlights “themagnitude of the disturbance that can be absorbed before the system changes its structure,function, and identity” (Holling, 1996, p. 33).

Challenging all ideas of equilibrium, evolutionary resilience, by Davoudi et al. (2012), highlightsa system's natural changes that may occur over time with or without external disturbance. Infact, this resilience includes the evolutionary perspective of a socio-ecological system and itsmultiple and ever-changing processes over time (Figure 3). The concept indeterminacy has atheoretical foundation in ecological and evolutionary resilience, as both are based on theexistence of multiple stable states and changes of a system: “basins of attraction, multipleequilibria, or regimes” (Wu & Wu, 2013, p. 214).

The climate change challenges of coastal areas like Long Bayare multi-faced; thus, their solutions need integratedapproaches. To meet the long-term and short-term uncertainlyposed by climate change, the design of coastal builtenvironments need to be flexible, resilient, and integrated withother measures so as to be transformable incrementally.Indeterminacy, as a design tool, can be applied to measure thecurrent resilience of urban forms and improve then whileconsidering local consent and the social, cultural, economic,environmental features of a particular context, as context iskey to climate change adaptation. Accordingly, the tool couldcontribute to advancing adaptation research while bridgingresilience, adaptation, and urban design and planning.

Negril, a small city on Jamaica's west coast, is a popular Caribbean touristdestination that contributes over 5% to the national GDP. In particular, thestudy focuses on Long Bay, a seven-mile transect of Negril's most denseand low lying area experiencing climatic impacts.

Nineteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with planning,design, and environmental professionals of different agencies involved inphysical development of the island using both purposeful and snowballsampling approaches during August 2015 (Table 2). Direct participatoryobservation focused on urban morphological components documentingand analysing the data gathered. Urban morphology includes the“physiognomy or townscape”, which combines the town plan, pattern ofbuilding forms (including street networks, blocks, and building footprints),the pattern of land use and their changes over time (Conzen, 1969).

Tapan K Dhar (B.Arch, MUD)Tapan K Dhar (B.Arch, MUD)

EngineeringResilience

EcologicalResilience

EvolutionaryResilience

Transformability and reversibility

Resilience

Efficiency andpredictability

Persistency, change,and unpredictability

Adaptability andtranformability

Indeterminacy, as conceptualized here, is a design tool that clarifies the physical characteristicand functions of urban forms, e.g., spaces and buildings that could be used alternatively orchanged to accommodate a number of different uses as needed. Here, it refers to a system'sability to transform and adapt to unknown circumstances, through flexibility, transformability,and adaptability, analogues to resilience, long been discussed in design disciplines (Table 1).These concepts promote pre-emptive adaptations, following a notion of bounce-forwardresilience, which is incremental and transformative, thus building the foundation of anindeterminacy framework.

Cities are increasinglyvulnerable to climate

change and disasters(Figure 1, right). What

urban design tools can beused to measure and

improve their resilience? Ingeneral, adaptations ofcoastal settlements are

limited to variousengineering strategies

(e.g., sea walls) and softstrategies, using

ecosystems and theirservices, similar toecosystem-based

adaptation. Adaptationresearch in planning

literature predominantlyfocuses on urban

governance, assessment ofcommunity-based

vulnerability, and disasterrecovery strategies (Dhar &Khirfan, forthcoming). This

poster presents“indeterminacy”, as a

conceptual tool, to integrateurban design, adaptation,

and resilience and tomeasure resilience of

coastal urban forms toclimate change.

Figure 4.Conceptual domain of

indeterminacy thatlinks different types of

resilience andadaptation.

66

%

33

%

16%50%

Not at allNo resilience To some extent

Long Bay's adaptation planning and design to deal with current threatsand prevailing morphological patterns primarily consider the impactsof rapid-onset events (Figure 7). Their objective is to retain the statusquo as in a bounce-back model. However, Long Bay still lacks disasterplans, including for emergency evacuation, to deal with rapid onset-events.

Local professionals suggested that alternative retreat plans seemnecessary for relocating at least part of current development and/orland uses ( e.g., tourist occupancy could move to uphill near Sheffield)as, in the long run, projected sea-levels would wash away mosthabitable zones. Current development has yet to support or startincrementally changing towards this target.

Negril Planning Authority's community hall serves as the onlyemergency shelter of the 7-mile beach, but is insufficient.Every resort might eventually be able to use its own suitabilitydesigned space (e.g., lobby) alternatively during disasters.Such spaces should be above the surge level (i.e., 3.2 m),structurally protected, and well-connected through alternativepathways parallel to the highway so that they can alsocontribute to Long Bay's evacuation planning.

Indeterminacy, an urban design tool

Long Bay’s resilience

Conclusion

Open building/architecture

Mat-urbanism

Polyvalentspaces

Ecologicalplanning anddesign

Landscapeurbanism

Theories/approaches Focus

temporal change, transformation, adaptation, and succession(Waldheim, 2006, p. 39).

resilient, adaptive, flexible, and responsive design interventions in whichman-made forms and functions are fused to natural systems andprocesses (McHarg, 1969).

cluster or modular developments and their multiple connections (Smithson1974)

flexibility and diversity of the built environment for dealing with socio-economic and personal changes as well as the needs for technical up-grading (Habraken, 1972; Kendall & Teicher, 2000)

accommodating multiple functions but not essentially by changingphysically (Hertzberger, 1991; Leupen, 2006)

Table 1. Theories in design disciplines advocating resilience or its analogous forms

Slow-onset events

from

Rapid-onset events

Impacts of sea-level rise (associated with the effects of storm surges) oncoastal cities

Impacts of extreme events on built infrastructure(e.g. extremes heat and droughts, floods due to heavy precipitation and

sea-level rise, and wind storms and storm surges)

Impacts on health arising from higher average temperatures and/orextreme events (e.g., heat and cold related mortality)

Impacts on energy use (e.g., energy for water, heating, and cooling)

Impacts on water availability and resources

Climate change impactson urban areas

Long-term adaptation planresponding to slow-onset events

Living with water/SLR Retreat/relocation Long-term recovery

Accommodative strategies(e.g., stilt developments)

Protective strategies Relocating occupancy(e.g.,near Sheffield)

Hard structures(e.g., Breakwaters)

Soft strategies(e.g., ecology-based adaptation)

Incremental development

+ - - -

- -- -

Figure 7. Long Bay’s long-term resilience (top) and short-term(i.e.,emergency responses) resilience (bottom). The (+) and (-) show thedegree of resilience according to respondents’experiences.

Figure 3.Types of resilience

and their capacitiesto cope with

disturbance anduncertainty

References

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

0 100 200 300 400 5000100200300Estimated damage (US$ billion) Number of natural diaster

Figure 1.Global Impacts ofnatural disasters(1900-2012)(Data: EM-Dat)

Figure 2.Climate changeimpacts on citiesand human wellbeing

Bounce-back Bounce-forward Evolutionary

Long-term actions(coping with uncertainty)

Short-term actions(Emergency responses)

Ad

ap

tati

on

Resilience

Interditerminacy

UDC beach park

Long Bay’shabitable area

Polyvalentspaces

0 500m

Public beachand the emergencyshelter

Norman Manley Highway

National Environment and PlanningAgency (NEPA),

Urban Development Corporation (UDC)

Ministry of Water, Land, Environment &Climate Change (MWLECC),

Office of Disaster Preparedness AndEmergency Management (ODPEM)

Negril area Environment protection trust(NEPT),

Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association

Agencies

Govt

Types

Govt

Govt

Govt

Non-Govt

Non-Govt

Table 2. Interviewees’ agencies and their types

Resilience and its contemporary discourse

Introduction

Figure 8.Respondents’agreement anddisagreement onindeterminacy ofLong Bay’s currenturban form

Future potential

Long Bay's linear development is highly restricted bytopographic features such as the sea and the greatmorass (wetland) (Figure 6). Beach erosion, the majorthreat, ranges between 0.2 and 1.4 m/year with 43% to91% a result of sea-level rise and associated increasedstorm events (Figure 5). This bay's rate is higher than itsneighbors.

Retreat and improved coastal set-back are hardlypossible here. Current planning and design strategiespredominately focus on coastal protection, for example,the submerged breakwater offshore.

Long Bay's small building footprints and plot size (4000sq.m - 70 hectares) offers the chance of futureincremental changes; however, recent approval for highdensity development without any adaptive designmeasures might hinder this potential.

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Cat 5 Cat 4 Cat 3

Num

ber

ofst

orm

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Figure 5. Categories 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes within 300 km ofNegril (adapted from CEAC, 2014)

No Indeterminacy Indeterminacy

Figure 6. Long Bay representing the most dense development in Negril (left); LongBay’s habitable zones and its urban morphological components (right).

Figure 9. LongBay’s currentdisaster plan

(left), andproposed flexible

and polyvalent(indeterminant )

spaces at thebuilding scaleconnecting to

evacuationpath/zone so as

to enhanceresilience (right).

Long Bay’s built environments and threats

Cuba

Jamaica

DominicanRepublic

Mexico

Haiti

Puerto Rico

Gulf of Mexico

Carribean sea

Atlantic ocean PhD Candidate, School of Planning,University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Disaster planresponding to rapid-onset events

Emergency evacuation Emergency rescue Passive survivability(until external help available)

Immediate reconstructionRemoval of waste

e.g., debris and seagrass

Emergency evacuation Emergency sheltering

Food/water

Tele-communication

Energy

-

-

- -

-

+

- -

-

School of ArchitectureTHE CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG

CEAC. (2014). Storm Surge Modeling and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Negril Climate Risk Atlas Office ofDisaster Preparedness and Emergency Management ( ODPEM)

Conzen, M. R. G. (1969). (2nd ed.). London: Institute of British Geographers.Davoudi, S., Shaw, K., Haider, L. J., Quinlan, A. E., Peterson, G. D., Wilkinson, C., et al. (2012). Resilience: A Bridging Concept or a Dead

End? (2), 299-333.

Preliminary Technical Design Report

Alnwick, Northumberland:AStudy in Town-planAnalysis

Planning Theory & Practice, 13Dhar, T., & Khirfan, L. (forthcoming). Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Planning and Design Research: Missing Links and Research Agenda.

.Journal of Environmental Planning and Management

Habraken, N. J. (1972). . London:Architectural Press.Hertzberger, H. (1991). . Rotterdam: 010 Publishers.Holling, C. S. (1996). Engineering Resilience versus Ecological Resilience. In P. C. Schulze (Ed.),

(pp. 31-44). Washington DC: NationalAcademy Press.Kendall, S., & Teicher, J. (2000). . New York and London: Taylor & Francis.Leupen, B. (2006). : 010 Publishers

Supports:AnAlternative to Mass HousingLessons for Students inArchitecture

Engineering withinEcological Constraints

Residential Open BuildingFrame and Generic Space .

McHarg, I. L. (1969). . New York:American Museum of Natural HistoryDesign with Nature

Smithson, A. (1974). How to Recognize and Read Mat-building: Mainstream Architecture as it Developed Towards Mat-building..

Waldheim, C. (2006). Landscape as Urbanism. In C. Waldheim (Ed.), (pp. 35-53). New York: PrincetonArchitectural Press.

Wu, J., & Wu, T. (2013). Ecological Resilience as a Foundation for Urban Design and Sustainability. In S. T. A. Pickett, M. L. Cadenasso &B. McGrath (Eds.), (pp. 211-229):Springer.

Architectural Design, 9The Landscape Urbanism Reader

Resilience in Ecology and Urban Design: Linking Theory and Practice for Sustainable CitiesPartnership for Canada-CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Adaptation

S.Neg

rilRive

r

500 m0

4000

sq.m

12.8 Ha

4270 Sq

m

17.3

Ha

70 Ha

2575

Sq.m

7770

sq.m

250 m0

The morass(wetland)Long Bay

Bloody Bay

OrangeBay

Negril

West end

Sheffield

Norman Manley Blvd

Evaluationzones

ProposedBreakwater