® ® transforming advertising response into growth scoring media for roi potential jim spaeth &...

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Transforming Advertising Response Into Growth

Scoring Media for ROI Potential

Jim Spaeth & Leslie WoodMedia Trust

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An ROI-related media selection application

• Evaluate and score media programs, media types and dayparts in terms of advertising value– the ability to generate incremental sales– by enhancing the communication of the brand selling

message

• Reveals hidden value not reflected by audience size, composition, or contribution to reach

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Our agenda

• New perspective on advertising value

• New benefits from single-source data

• New method

• New learning

• New implications …

for an age old business problem

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A new perspective on advertising value?

• Single-source brings ad effects into stark relief– As UPC data did for promotion – Contrast between exposed and unexposed purchasers isolates

ad effects clearly

FROM TO

Learning Theory Recency

Effective Frequency Reach Maximization

Flighting Continuity

The last time we had single-source data, the media world

changed:

• What new learning will emerge from recent work?• Will it change marketers’ perspective on advertising value

and reverse the flow of funds back to advertising?

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New benefits from single-source data

We’ve known …• Single-source data enables more effective management of

advertising performance– By tracking sales response in near real time

• Single-source data enables more effective management of media productivity– Through more productive targeting

And now …• Single-source data enables management of advertising-media

synergies– By identifying media environments that enhance advertising performance

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New benefits from single-source data

• Game-changing for the media and advertising industry:– As a supplement to currency audience measures– A measure of additional value– Based on sales response, advertisers’ key objective

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Media Ad Xponent (sm) technical notes

• This is an early exploration of this measure, and we do not recommend that the findings be applied yet

• Built on many years of experience with single-source data, most recently on 2 years of experience in analyzing Project Apollo data

• Deals exclusively with advertising-to-sales response

• Based on a 28 day ad response window

• Scaled from 0 to 100

• Built from the ground up, accumulating micro measures

• Normalized for creative imbalances by mustering and borrowing strength among the available observations

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Early learning

1. There are very significant TV program and genre effects on advertising response

2. They appear to differ by product category

3. Our initial perspective is that creative continues to be the biggest source of variation in advertising response, but program effects are also very sizeable

4. Single source data once again demonstrates enormous power to quantify these kinds of effects

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Scores for genres vary by advertised category

Detergents

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ecia

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ap

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New Implications … for an age old business problem

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The need• Media marketplace decisions have been informed by

historical research and a resultant common understanding of media values offered by various:– Media types– Dayparts– Genres– Programs

• This has been unsettled by:– Increasing consumer control … DVRs etc.– Decline of program quality … exposed and exacerbated by the

writer’s strike

• Necessitating a new means of determining the comparative value of exposures in various media– Amplified by the call for media accountability– Engendering the excitement about … Engagement

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Our conclusion: a new solution

• What’s the value of an exposure?– Requires more than recall– Requires a behavioral measure of sales impact

• Complementary to measures of:– Audience size, composition, and cost– To provide for a complete valuation of media options– Without guesswork or surrogate measures

• Readily integrated with measures of advertising efficacy– Enabling the integrated management of media and advertising

• Completing the holistic perspective on the value of media choices

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Advertising Effectiveness Research Tools

CTCT = Copy Testing

MMMM = Market Mix Modeling

a = advertising

m = marketing

Can single source data evolve into a nearly

real-time decision support system?

• Target audience value

• Advertising value

• Media value

SSSS = Single Source Analysis

TRTR = Tracking

Po

wer

Po

wer

Speed Speed (from data to decision making)(from data to decision making)

MMmMMm

MMaMMa TRTR

SSSS

CTCT