© t. m. whitmore today economic development: diversity amid globalization “sectors” of an...

© T. M. Whitmore

Today

•Economic Development: Diversity Amid Globalization

•“Sectors” of an Economy

•Basic human Demography

© T. M. Whitmore

Development = bettering of society or of a people (many definitions)•Sustainable development

•Measures of development Economic measures Non‑economic measures - $$ isn’t the best measure necessarily

•Not linear or inevitable.•Connections to colonialism and

globalization.

© T. M. Whitmore

Development and colonialism

•Global integration has a long and ugly history.

•Particularly important was the control and settlement of overseas territories by European states over the past 500 years.

© T. M. Whitmore

Effects of colonialism•Removal and replacement of

local power structures, institutions, economies and populations.

•Enduring connections to colonial powers – early globalization

•Global “underdevelopment”?

Globalization

•A process of global integration

•Underlying causes are primarily economic and technological

•Economic, demographic, social, cultural, political and environmental manifestations

© T. M. Whitmore

Primary “Sector” of economies

•Agriculture and raw material production (mining)

•Relatively slow growing economically

•World’s resources are very unevenly distributed

© T. M. Whitmore

Secondary Sector of economies

•Transformation of raw materials into manufactured goods;

•Formerly dominated the economy of richest nations, but no longer

•Greater growth potential than primary

© T. M. Whitmore

Tertiary Sector of economies•Provision of services (burger

flippers to college profs)•Now largest sector in richest

nations•Good growth potential•Quaternary Sector: A part of the

tertiary sector involved in information processing; Very rapidly growing in richest nations

Demography Concepts I

•Population growth (usually %/yr) Population growth = births – deaths (rate of natural increase)

+/- migration

•Exponential growth P2 = P1 * e(rt)

the “magic of compounding” e = natural logr = rate of growth/ yrt = number of yrs

•MortalityDeath rate: deaths per 1000 pop/yr

Eo (life expectancy at birth)

Demography Concepts II

•Fertility (birth rate) – 2 measures1: Births per thousand pop/yr 2: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (total children born/mother in her lifetime)TFR = 2.1 => “replacement level fertility” no growth –parents just replace themselves

Demography Concepts III

•“Recent” population history

•Birth (fertility) and death (mortality) rates world wide

•Annual increment in world population

•Growth in Developed vs Developing (rich vs poor or Global North vs Global South) countries

•Current state of global populations

Current World Demography

© T. M. Whitmore

Demographic Transition Model

•Idea from W European history•Stages of change in mortality and

fertility => growth over time•Urbanization and industrialization•Different parts of the world are seen

to be in different stages or phases•Different population age structures

Rapidly growing = youngSlow growing = old

Population Movements•Migration

VoluntaryForced (e.g., Refugees)Push vs. Pull Factors

• International migrationRemittances

•Rural to Urban migration

© T. M. Whitmore

Urbanization

•Global N vs S differences

•Urbanization increasing everywhere:Especially in the in global S

•Megacities increasing in size and number

© T. M. Whitmore

Key Concepts in EnvironmentPatterns & Processes:

Landforms•How to explain patterns of:

Mountain chainsTectonic hazardsShape of continents

•Plate Tectonics•Geomorphology/rock cycle

© T. M. Whitmore

Plate Tectonics•1912 Alfred Wegner’s

“continental drift”•Plate tectonics (1960s-70s):

moving “plates” hold all the oceans and continents

© T. M. Whitmore

Plate Tectonics II•Moving “plates”

Sea floor spreading (divergent plates)

Subduction (convergent plates) Pangaea

•Terrestrial hazards: Earthquakes and volcanoes“ring of fire”

Development: Income DiversityDevelopment: Income Diversity

Developed (rich, north) world

Undeveloped (poor, south) world

World Institute for Development Economics Research United Nations University (UNU-WIDER) 2006

Development Diversity: WealthDevelopment Diversity: Wealth

World Institute for Development Economics Research United Nations University 2006

Diversity: Internal InequalityDiversity: Internal Inequality

The Gini index is a measure of income inequality.

GNI (GNP) per CapitaRich Global “North” vs Poor Global “South”

N

S

Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

Life Life expectancyexpectancy

IlliteracIlliteracyy

Life expectancy differentials by Life expectancy differentials by sexsex

Social DevelopmentSocial Development

Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.

Colonial Possessions in 1714

Colonial Possessions in 1914

Colonial powers profited from gold and silver, slaves, opium and agricultural products extracted from colonies.

Colonialism & Global N & SColonialism & Global N & S

Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.

Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.

Kareiva et al., 2007, Science

Shipping lanes reveal our interlinked world.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2002-Q2 2002 2003-Q2 2003 2004-Q2 2004 2005-Q2 2005

Canada

Japan

United States

United Kingdom

France

OECD

Germany

Italy

Broadband penetration, historic, G7 countries

Source : OECD

The US is at the center of globalization in many ways.

The Economist, 1997

Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.

One pair of jeans, twelve countries.

Economic Globalization: World Economic Globalization: World TradeTrade

Economic Globalization: Illicit Economic Globalization: Illicit TradeTrade

Figure 1.7

A.D.

2000

A.D.

1000

A.D.

1

1000

B.C.

2000

B.C.

3000

B.C.

4000

B.C.

5000

B.C.

6000

B.C.

7000

B.C.

1+ million

years

8

7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStone

Age New Stone AgeBronze

Age

Iron

AgeMiddle

Ages

Modern

Age

Black Death — The Plague

9

10

11

12

A.D.

3000

A.D.

4000

A.D.

5000

1800

1900

1950

1975

2000

2100

FutureBill

ion

s

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

World Population Growth Through World Population Growth Through HistoryHistory

Of all people who have ever lived, ~10% are alive now.

The total fertility rate is the mean number of children born per woman, and must be 2.1 for the population to replace itself. Four out of nine people live in countries which have dipped below this.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1936-1938

1946-1948

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

© 2003, Population Reference Bureau

Birth & Death Rates Worldwide

Millions

Annual Increase in Annual Increase in World PopulationWorld Population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

19

51

19

56

19

61

19

66

19

71

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01 ©

200

3, P

opul

atio

n R

efer

ence

Bur

eau

We are here

Billions

Growth in More & Less Growth in More & Less Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries

Less Developed Countries (South)

More Developed Countries (North)

Total World population

© 2

003,

Pop

ulat

ion

Ref

eren

ce B

urea

u

Exponential (ultimately logistic) growth

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Projected Population Change, 2005-2050

World Population ~ 6.55 billionr (%/yr) = 1.2%; TFR = 2.7; ~ 48% urban

India & ChinaEach > 1 billion

Less Developed world (south): ~ 5.3br = 1.5-1.8%; TFR = 2.9-3.4; ~ 41%

urban

More Developed world (north): ~ 1.2br = 0.1%; TFR = 1.6; ~ 77% urban

N

S

Demographic Transition Model

Global NorthGlobal South

Population Age Structure -Population Pyramids

44% < age 15; 3% > 65 21% < age 15; 13% > 65

New York Times, 2007

International Migration

Many migrants move from poor to rich countries.

New York Times, 2007

International Migrant RemittancesWorld Remittances =40% of Foreign investment140% of Development aid

Global UrbanizationGlobal Urbanization

N

S

By 2008, for the first time in world history, 50% of all people will live in cities.

© National Geographic Society

By 2015By 2015

© National Geographic Society

MegacitiesMegacities

1 billion live in slums. They include 70% of urban dwellers in Africa.

© T. M. Whitmore

© T. M. Whitmore

*

*

© T. M. Whitmore

© T. M. Whitmore

divergent

convergent

Divergent (spreading) plates

© T. M. Whitmore

divergent

convergent

Convergent (colliding) plates

© T. M. Whitmore

Pangaea

180 m yrs BP

Present

© T. M. Whitmore

divergent

convergent

© T. M. Whitmore

Antigua, Guatemala

© T. M. Whitmore

Michoacán, Mexico