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© Statistisches Bundesamt, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, National Accounts
Statistisches Bundesamt
German experiences in estimating households’ non-financial assets
OECD Working Party on National Accounts and Financial Statistics
Paris, 2-5 October 2007
Presented byOda Schmalwasser and Marc Peter Radke
Federal Statistical Office Deutsche Bundesbank oda.schmalwasser@destatis.de marc-peter.radke@bundesbank.de
© Statistisches Bundesamt, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, National Accounts
Statistisches Bundesamt
Content
1. Introduction
2. Compilation of households’ fixed assets by the Federal Statistical Office
3. Estimation of households’ stock of land underlying buildings and structures by the Deutsche Bundesbank
4. Example of use: Compilation of integrated financial and non-financial household sector balance sheets
5. Conclusion
© Statistisches Bundesamt, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, National Accounts
Statistisches Bundesamt
1. IntroductionAvailability of data on households’ non-financial assets
Code Non-financial assets (AN) Availability of data
AN.1 Produced assets Partly available
AN.11 Fixed assets Available, see section 2
AN.12 Inventories Not available
AN.13 Valuables Not available
AN.2 Non-produced assets Partly available
AN.211 Land Partly available
AN.2111Land underlying buildings and structures
Available, see section 3
AN.212..4Other tangible non-produced assets
Not available
AN.22 Intangible non-produced assets Not available
© Statistisches Bundesamt, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, National Accounts
Statistisches Bundesamt
Assets AN 1.1…1 2 . . . an . . . AN
1 AN 1,1,1 . . . AN 1,an,1 . . . AN 1,AN,1
2
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
a AN a,1,1 . . . AN a,an,1 . . . AN a,AN,1
. . . .
. . . .
. . . . AN a,an,s
60 AN 60,1,1 . . . AN 60,an,1 . . . AN 60,AN,1
AN a,an,S60
Indu
stries
(A60
)
Sector S.11
Sector S.12
Sector s
Sector S
Fixed assets AN 1.1
2. Compilation of fixed assets
© Statistisches Bundesamt, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, National Accounts
Statistisches Bundesamt
2. Compilation of households’ fixed assets (2)
Traditional German non-financial enterprises: S.11+S.14
Dwellings by sector available
Basis for the further breakdown:PIM information in a cross classification of
other buildings and structures (including major improvements on land and costs of ownership transfer on land)
machinery and equipment intangible assets
for S.1 – S.12 – S.13 – S.15 = (S.11 + S.14)by 60 industries (A60 of ESA 95)
© Statistisches Bundesamt, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, National Accounts
Statistisches Bundesamt
2. Households’ fixed assets (3) Net stock at current replacement costs
Code Fixed assets by category2005
EUR bn
2005% in S.1
AN.11 Fixed assets 3244 47.3
AN.111 Tangible fixed assets 3233 47.6
AN.1111 Dwellings 2948 86.0
AN.1112 Other buildings and structures 181 7.5
AN.1113 Machinery and equipment 100 10.6
AN.1114 Cultivated assets 4 60.0
AN.112 Intangible fixed assets 12 18.9
3. Estimation of households’ stock of land
underlying buildings and structures
8
3.1 Background information
• Characteristics of the “old” approach to the estimation of land underlying buildings and structures by the Bundesbank
1. Approach was inextricably linked with the estimation of fixed assets
2. Approach was based on an updating procedure of former estimates of fixed assets by Destatis under ESA 1979 and former land estimates by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and the Deutsche Bundesbank
• Introduction of Destatis’ sectoral compilation of fixed assets required a “new” approach to the estimation of land underlying buildings and structures
9
3.2 Data requirements
Aim of the estimation procedure was to compile
• Market value and real stock of land underlying buildings and structures (AN.2111) for households including non-profit institutions serving households (S.14+S.15) for the period from 1991 to 2006
• Breakdown of the results into
1. part of land (AN.2111) underlying dwellings (AN.1111)
2. part of land (AN.2111) underlying other buildings and structures (AN.1112)
10
3.3 Data sources
1. Statistics on purchase values of building land published by Destatis
• Transactions: sales volumes of building land (in sq.km) from 1964 up to 2007 (annual data)
• Transaction/market prices (in €/sqm)• Breakdown by building areas (business area, mixed business and residential area,
residential area, industrial area, village area)• No breakdown by sector and no breakdown into land underlying dwellings and land
underlying other buildings and structures according to ESA 1995
2. Statistics on the area of land classified by actual uses published by Destatis
• Breakdown of the whole economy’s stock of land by kinds-of-use (in sq.km) (quadrennial data: 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004)
• Definition of item “areas and open areas underlying buildings” corresponds to land underlying buildings and structures (AN.2111) according to ESA 1995.
• No breakdown into land underlying dwellings and land underlying other buildings and structures according to ESA 1995; no information on land (market) prices
11
Step 1: Stock-flow calculation of land underlying buildings and structures at the total economy level (S.1) and breakdown by building areas (business area, mixed business and residential area, residential area, industrial area, village area) from 1991 to 2006
Step 2: Breakdown of the stock-flow calculation into land underlying dwellings and land underlying other buildings and structures at the total economy level (S.1)
Step 3: Breakdown of land underlying dwellings and land underlying other buildings and structures by institutional sector
3.4 Estimation procedure
12
3.5 Results (1)
Notes: Net stock of fixed assets is valued at replacement costs; land underlying buildings and structures is valued at market prices.
Net s tock of fixed assets including land underlying buildings and structures of the household sector including non-profit institutions serving households (S.14 + S.15)
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
Year
€ bi
llion
Other f ixed assets(AN.1113+AN.1114+AN.112)
Land underlying otherbuildings and structures (partof AN.2111 underlyingAN.1112)
Other buildings andstructures (AN.1112)
Land underlying dw ellings(part of AN.2111 underlyingAN.1111)
Dw ellings (AN.1111)
13
3.5 Results (2)
Shares in net stock of fixed assets including land underlying buildings and structures of households including non-profit institutions serving households (S.14 + S.15) (shares at the beginning of the year)
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
shar
es in
net
sto
ck o
f fix
ed a
sset
s in
clud
ing
land
und
erly
ing
build
ings
and
str
uctu
res
Dw ellings (AN.1111)
Land underlying dw ellings(part of AN.2111 underlyingAN.1111)
Other buildings andstructures (AN.1112)
Land underlying otherbuildings and structures (partof AN.2111 underlyingAN.1112)
Other f ixed assets(AN.1113+AN.1114+AN.112)
Households' housing w ealth(dw ellings + land underlyingdw ellings)
Notes: Net stock of fixed assets is valued at replacement costs; land underlying buildings and structures is valued at market prices.
14
3.6 Assessment
• Estimation approach led to considerable improvements in data quality
• But results have to interpreted with due care because
1. sectoral breakdown is based on assumptions (no sectoral data available)
2. estimates can be only considered as a lower limit of the “true“ market value (no information on market values of land which is already built-up)
15
4. Example of use: Compilation of integrated financial and non-financial household sector balance sheets
16
4.1 Compilation procedure
• Compilation of balance sheets for households including non-profit institutions serving households (S.14+S.15) from 1992 to 2006
• Data sources and compilation:
1. Net stock of fixed assets (AN.11) from Destatis
2. Land underlying buildings and structures (AN.2111) from Bundesbank
3. Financial assets and liabilities (AF) from Bundesbank (financial accounts)
4. Net worth (B.90) compiled as residual
17
Balance sheet of households and non-profit institutions serving households (S.14+S.15) (stocks at the beginning of the year)
-4000.00
-2000.00
0.00
2000.00
4000.00
6000.00
8000.00
10000.00
Year
€ b
illio
n
Liabilities (AF=AF.4+AF.7)
Financial assets(AF=AF.2+AF.3+AF.4+AF.5+AF.6+AF.7)
Land underlying buildings andstructures (AN.2111)
Fixed Assets (AN.11)
Net Worth (B.90)
4.2 Results (1)
Notes: Net stock of fixed assets is valued at replacement costs; land underlying buildings and structures is valued at market prices. Financial assets and liabilities are predominantly valued at market prices.
18
4.2 Results (2)
Net w orth structure of households including non-profit institutions serving households (S.14+S.15) (s tocks at the beginning of the year)
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
7000.00
8000.00
Year
€ bi
llion
Net f inancial assets (BF.90)
Non-f inancial assets(AN.11+AN.2111)
Net Worth (B.90)
Notes: Net stock of fixed assets is valued at replacement costs; land underlying buildings and structures is valued at market prices. Financial assets and liabilities are predominantly valued at market prices.
19
4.3 International Comparison
Source (except data for Germany): OECD, Economic Outlook, Vol. 2007/1, No. 81, June, Annex Table 58: Household wealth and indebtedness, p. 298.
Notes: For Canada, Italy and the United States, data also include consumer durables. For Canada, Germany, France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, data also include non-residential buildings and fixed assets of unincorporated enterprises and of non-profit institutions serving households, although coverage and valuation method may differ.
International comparison of households' net worth in per cent of nominal disposible income (stock of net worth at the beginning of the year; nominal disposable income at the
end of previous year)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
%
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
Germany (w ithoutconsumer durables)
Germany (includingconsumer durables)
20
5. Conclusion
• Data quality and data availability regarding non-financial assets and respecting household sector balance sheets have been improved considerably by the latest work of Destatis and the Bundesbank
• Potential fields of improvement:
1. Regarding data availability: for example, collection of data on non-financial assets which have not yet been covered by the current compilation approach
2. Regarding data quality: for example, development of reliable valuation methods for land taking into account regional differences
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