© oecd/iea 2012 mexico city, july 13, 2012 richard h. jones, deputy executive director dr. markus...
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© OECD/IEA 2012
Mexico City, July 13, 2012Richard H. Jones, Deputy Executive DirectorDr. Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader,
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
Sustainable future still in reach
© OECD/IEA 2012
Are we on track to reach a clean
energy future?
NO ✗
Can we get on track?
YES ✓
Is a clean energy transition urgent?
YES ✓
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
Renewable power generation
42%Average annual
growth in Solar PV
27%Average annual growth in wind
75%Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just three years in
some countries
Renewables provide good news
© OECD/IEA 2012
Non-hydro sources spread out widely
Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regionsNumber of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly
0
20
40
60
80
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean
Nu
mb
er
of
co
un
trie
s (
>1
00
MW
)
IEA MRMR 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000 OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGas with CCSGasCoal with CCSCoal
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
TW
h
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas is not a panacea
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’. CCS must play a role if gas use should continue to grow.
Natural Gas is not a panacea
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
© OECD/IEA 2012
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt C
O2
Electric vehicles need to come of age
© OECD/IEA 2012
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
50
100
150
200FCEV
Electricity
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
Diesel
Gasoline
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050
Pas
seng
er L
DV
sal
es (
mill
ion)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Manufacturers production/sales
Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)
mill
ion
sa
les/
yea
r
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Projection (Es-timated from each country's target)
mill
ion
sa
les/
yea
rTranslating targets into action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050,0.0
500,000.0
1000,000.0
1500,000.0
2000,000.0
2500,000.0
Billi
on h
ouse
hold
s Building sector challenges differ
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
Heating & Cooling: huge potential
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
© OECD/IEA 2012
Mexican CO2 emissions need to be halved by 2050
The power sector provides almost 40% of the cumulative CO2 reductions compared to the 4DS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtC
O2
6DS
Agriculture, other 1%
Other transformation 7%
Power 37%
Industry 17%
Transport 23%
Buildings 16%
© OECD/IEA 2012
A portfolio of technologies are needed in power
Electricity savings, solar and wind power as key mitigation options in Mexico
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2030 2050
Mt C
O2
Additional emissions in 6DSFuel switching and efficiency improvemnetsElectricity savings
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Nuclear
CCS
2DS emissions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Greening the Mexican vehicle fleet
Most of the greening of the Mexican vehicle fleet is achieved by drop-in biofuels
© OECD/IEA 2012
End-use energy efficiency is critical
In the Mexican buildings sector, more than half of the reductions will come from decarbonisation of the power sector.
© OECD/IEA 2012
A low-carbon future for Mexico
Low-carbon development has already been made a priority
First successes have been achieved, more ambitious actions will be necessary to meet the 2DS
New Climate Law represents an excellent basis for action – need to maintain momentum!
Mexico is well placed for a “green” development strategy and ambitious climate goals
© OECD/IEA 2012
www.iea.org/etp
For much more, please visit
© OECD/IEA 2012
Assumptions- GDP and population
© OECD/IEA 2012
Assumptions- fossil fuel prices
© OECD/IEA 2012
Carbon prices (model result)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Visualising ETP Data – reductions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Visualising ETP Data – energy flows
© OECD/IEA 2012
Visualising ETP Data – fuel flows
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