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������ ���� ������� ���ก����������������� �!"�#������� �ก��$� (#ก�.)

#(����"��������)*$ก�������#�������#�*������$�27 �ก���� 2554

NSTDA Academy Open House 2011

��������ก� �!"#�$%ก��&�ก�'()*�+�,- 2012

������������

1. ��������� ��� Cancun Agreement

� AWG on Long-Term Cooperative Action under UNFCCC (AWG-LCA)

� AWG on Further Commitments for Annex-I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)

2. 12345�26���7��89:83

I. .'(#�/"�� *0Cancun Agreement

Post 2012 Regime

� Shared Vision : 2020 & 2050� Developed Country� Developing Country

1. Adaptation 2. Mitigation� NAMAs � REDD Plus @ etc.

3. Financial Support4.Technology Transfer

UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol

� Further commitment of Annex-I after 2012

Cancun Agreement

1�$�������2� Cancun Agreement

1. Save “the Process” but not “the Planet”

Climate Action Tracker (11/12/2010)

1�$�������2� Cancun Agreement

2. Unbalance Package

� 3���!����������4���"ก��4��ก5�6����

���73���!ก8�����������$��7�����9���$���ก5�6��ก1:;�

H+)Iก�JK�LกM�N,� /��H+O)�P�'#

Mitigation :NAMAs by Developed Country Parties

36. Takes note of quantified economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention as communicated by them and contained in document FCCC/SB/2010/INF.X (to be issued);

37. Urges developed country Parties to increase the ambition of their economy-wide emission reduction targets, to a level consistent with that recommended by the IPCC –AR4 ;

AWG-KP Outcome

1. Agrees that the AWG-KP shall aim to complete its

work pursuant to decision 1/CMP.1 and have its

results adopted by the CMP as early as possible and in time to ensure that there is no gap between the first and second commitment periods;

4. Urges Annex I Parties to raise the level of ambition of the emission reductions to be achieved by them individually or jointly, with a view to reducing their aggregate level of emissions of greenhouse gases in accordance with the range indicated by IPCC-AR4

��Q��) IPCC-Assessment Report No.4 :

Scenario Region 2020 2050

450 ppm CO2-eq

(2�

C)

Annex I -25% to -40% below 1990

-80% to -95% below 1990

Non-AI -15% to -30% below Business as Usual

Substantial Deviation from Baseline in all.

Source: den Elzen and Hohne (2008)

ก��������$��2=������ �ก� �ก>�7?2�#��1:;��ก�� 2 (���/N�/NKQR� ,� /���KSH+O)�P�'# (Annex-I) : ��$���ก��3�7$ ก5�6 25-40% B�ก

�����!4*3�7$ ?�3C 1990 ?2�>��=� ?�3C 2020 � ,� /���KSกV��+�H+O)� (Non-Annex I) : ��$���ก��3�7$ ก5�6 15-30%

B�ก�����!4*3�7$ $ �73ก�� ?2�>��=� ?�3C 2020 )

12

Copenhagen Accord : Pledges from some Annex I

Copenhagen Accord

H+)Iก�JK�LกM�N,� /��กV��+�H+O)�

Mitigation :NAMAs by Developing Country Parties

48. Agrees that developing country Parties will take nationally appropriate mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative to .business as usual. emissions in 2020;

49. Takes note of nationally appropriate mitigation actions to be implemented by non-Annex I Parties as communicated and contained in document FCCC/AWGLCA/ /2010/INF.Y (to be issued);

Mitigation :NAMAs by Developing Country Parties

53. Also decides to set up a registry to record nationally appropriate mitigation actions seeking international support and to facilitate matching of finance, technology and capacity-building support to these actions;

59. Requests the secretariat to record, and regularly update, information submitted by Parties, in a separate section of the registry:

(a) Mitigation actions contained in document FCCC/AWGLCA/2010/INF.Y referred to in paragraph 49 above;

Mitigation : LCS

65. Encourages developing countries to develop low-carbon development strategies or plans in the context of sustainable development;

REDD Plus

71. Requests developing country Parties aiming to undertake activities referred to in paragraph 70 above,

(a) A national strategy or action plan;

(b) A national forest reference emission level and/or forest reference level6 or, if appropriate, as an interim measure, subnational forest reference emission levels and/or forest reference levels ….

(c) A robust and transparent national forest monitoring system for the monitoring and reporting of the activities

3. Save “National Interest”

but not “Global Interest”

PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

India today said that the BASIC

countries were "very happy" with

the two draft texts“Jairam Ramesh, Environment Minister”

1�$�������2� Cancun Agreement

National Interest & Climate Change

AWG-LCA : Shared Vision

4. …..global average temperature below 2°C above pre-

industrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity;

5. …reducing global emissions by 2050, and to consider it at COP17;

6. .. global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions based on the best available scientific knowledge and equitable access to sustainable development, and to consider at COP 17;

II. Cancun Agreement�� #8���G�7$3���!>!

1. National Interest

2. Global Interest

National Interest : Policy/ Position

� ก��ก�����Low Carbon Development � Green Growth ( Rio + 20)

� ก��ก����� NAMAs � Co-Benefit

Policies

� ก�����������ก��ก��ก REDD Plus & ก!"ก#$%&' (ก)%*+ก,-./0

Y�",Z�[$' & &�ก�'()

REDD-Plus

%��LY�"R$+"�]^

CDM

I)�"��%')[$' /

,Z� a$`)

Hb`(�*�� / Hb`H�+���) / Q��

NAMAs

#��3H�#�ก?� ���ก�� Voluntary Carbon Market –#ก����

National Interest : Technical Issues

� ก��$$ก������B����;� MRV System

� ก��ก8�2�� BAU !4*�2���#�

� ก�>ก REDD Plus (Ref. Emission Level)

� ������ �!"�#�������)$ก������ก��!������ก����� ก����!��B�ก�7��3���!

I�I

Global Interest : Policy / Strategy� ������������ ��!"#$�ก����ก Post -2012

Climate Change Regime ??

N1 : 78#9ก0:;ก8"<.=>?0@!ก:8#&"A8B:C9

� 3�# US �6#��789 � ก����6$�ก�:79 BASIC >$��?$�97 ?

� 3�# US, EU, JP C�C �>��9��D��9�!��กE�F���$!7����?

� ��!���789����7�3� ? G����?�$��63� ? ��H7� �� 20 % ��ก BAU �9?�$����� ���>�J��G�#8�� 40%

�+กQY�H�LกM�N.(�[�Q ,- 2020

����������2�ก���7�����9���$���ก5�6

AN-I :-25% to -40%

below 1990

������ ก<2=4

>21?ก@AB7CDD��EF

Target 2 C : 2020

NA-I : -15% to -30%

below BAU

.'(/R)(.+c)Rd� : -30% BAU

.'(/R)(.+c)%SV� : -15% BAU

.'(/R)(.+c)Rd� : 30-50 % BAU

.'(/R)(.+c)%SV� : 15-40 % BAU

����ก�����ก !"�#$%&

107 MtC02eq.

21% BAU

Global Interest : Policy / Strategy

� LM����#��6$� Post -2012 Climate Change Regime ??

� >�N����O���3�97 ?

� >�N�����ก�!8L" ?

� >�N����O���3�97 + >�N�����ก�!8L" ?

����B8��3J�1$���"4#���ก4 � � & Climate Change

Global Interest : Technical Issues

� ก��B��#�����"ก��4ก���� & ก�����*��������

ก5�61$�3���!�7��K � below 2 C

� Financial Mechanism

� Technical Transfer Mechanism

I�I

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