© 2018 korn ferry. all rights reserved 1 · •who is cipd? •what is futures/ horizon scanning?...

© 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1

‘Futures’ approach to strategic workforce planning

Wilson Wong, Ph.D

Today’s whistle-stop tour

• Who is CIPD?• What is futures/ horizon scanning?• Why futures in strategic planning?• Example of strategic workforce planning• Distilling the people issues and questions• HCM considerations• Discussion

1963We celebrate ourGolden Jubilee

The Duke of Edinburgh with Sir Ralph Perring, Lord Mayor of London, and Mr. G. R. Moxon, President of the IPM.

Championing better work and working lives for more than 100 years

1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

1913The Welfare WorkersAssociation is founded at a meeting in Rowntrees in York

1920Our first journalis published

1931We become theInstitute of LabourManagementwith a new journal to match

1937Our first officeoutside theUK opened inIreland

1946Renamed theInstitute of PersonnelManagement (IPM)

1973We reach15,000members

1994IPM joins forces with the Institute of Training andDevelopment in 1994 to create the Instituteof Personnel andDevelopment

2000The IPD is granted aRoyal Charter and sothe CIPD is born

2013We celebrate ourcentenary with more than130,000 membersin more than 100 countries

2010We expand into Asiawith a new office in Singapore

Putting the people profession at the heart of change

Work matters.People matter.Professionalism matters.

The CIPD in numbers

Annual Report 2016/17

A framework for CIPD’s knowledge capital

• Work• Workforce• Workplace

• HC metrics• Bus language of HR • Data analytics

• Behavioural science• Psychology• Neuroscience• Values and ethics• Systems thinking

• Economy• Political and regulatory

• Technologies• HR operating models • HR capabilities

Insight on Changing Context

Science of human and

organisationalbehaviour

HR & Learning Processes, Practices, Policies

Business, Commercial Insight, and

Analytics

Better work and working lives

www.cipd.co.uk/knowledge

Sources of evidence

6 steps

Europe is swamped by refugees!

• What percentage of the world’s refugees are located in Germany (2015)?

@3% <2% <1%

13.13

11.88

7.15

1.48 1.28 1.280.64 0.58 0.36 0.34

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jordon Turkey Lebanon Germany United States France Canada UnitedKingdom

Belgium Austria

Refugee population by country of location 2015

Refugees (% of UNHCR total refugee pop)

Sources: World Bank and UN

36.52

30.26

3.31

0.42 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.31 0.19 0.08

13.13

7.15

11.88

1.28 1.480.64 0.24 0.34 0.58

1.28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jordon Lebanon Turkey France Germany Canada Belgium Austria UnitedKingdom

United States

Refugee population by country of location 2015

Refugees (% of country pop) Refugees (% of total UNHCR refugee pop)

Sources: World Bank and UN

How does your brain work?

• SYSTEM 1• Fast• Intuitive/ associative• Heuristic/ biases• Affective/ emotional

• SYSTEM 2• Lazy• Slow• Deliberate• Rational

Temporal myopia

Solutioneering is the term used to describe the act of working up a solution prior to really understanding the problem that solution is set to solve.

What’s your question?

Example

Security

Capacity

Alternatives Demand

Technology

Social

Cost of energy

Research Questions

• How is 'talent' understood in Singapore?

• What are the most significant factors shaping the understanding of 'talent‘ today?

• What are the drivers shaping the context to that understanding of talent in the next 15 years?

Research Questions

Three Components

1. Delphi Study

2. Trend Analysis

3. Scenario Building

Research Methodology

• Structured communication technique

• Forecasting method relying on a diverse panel of experts

• Experts answers in two or more rounds

Delphi Technique

Questionnaire Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3

3 Aug - 13 Aug 28 Sept - 4 Oct

19 Oct - 25 Oct 9 Nov – 15 Nov

Drivers of change & scenario building

• After each round, a summary/ synthesis of experts’ inputs from that round is provided

• The aim is to encourage a crude convergence on the important drivers of change

Findings

Construct of Talent

• Ability to learn, evolve and adapt

• Ability to create and innovate

• Delivery of results effectively and efficiently: high performing individuals

• Potential

• Motivation• Personal

Intelligence

• Uniqueness• Past experience

/ track record

What is Talent?

Signals of Talent

Trend Data & Drivers

Demographics Technology

Environment Political Social

Economic

Labour Market

• Missed opportunities by home-grown talent due to culture

Economic Development

• Low unemployment rate

• Labour/skills shortages

• Migration rate

• Sustaining productivity

• Impact of a benign environment

• High cost of failure• Education and

calibration for the conventional

• Complacency and lower risk appetite

• Policy interventions by the state

• Conflict and instability in the ASEAN region / Singapore

• Environmental Drivers including climate change

• Pandemics

• A global financial crisis

Delphi Drivers

Culture

Policy Interventions

Wild Cards

• Evolution of the State

• Power and Ethics

• Questions of Fairness

• Talent Mobility

• Knowledge and Skills Obsolescence

Implications

Implications for strategic workforce planning

• Capability: Mobility; human cloud; data & AI

• Resilience: Surveillance; privacy; talent selection (academic qualifications?);

• Relevance: Choices; disintermediation; discontinuities; leadership; where is the value in value chains?

• Governance: Shifts in paradigm; diversity of assumptions

Futures in strategyIs

sue Corporate conversations

Iterative clarificationPrioritisation by impact across time horizonsWhether actionableAgreement

Data

& te

stin

g Identify potential drivers of changeSource reliable trend datasetsLook at historical examples of how drivers interact and the effects and actionsUnderstand the ‘weight’ of the ‘data’ on which you rely

Synt

hesis

> S

trat

egy Build scenarios using the

data inputsInclude quiet signals and ‘wild cardsTest scenarios with stakeholdersDistil areas of concern & opportunity that you can respond toIdentify red flags and trigger mechanismsBuild capability and contingency plans to respond

ISO 30409 HRM: Workforce Planning

• Workforce planning: the systematic identification, analysis and planning of organizational needs in terms of people

• Planning: process of thinking about and organizing the activities required to achieve a desired outcome

C a p a b i l i t y; R e s i l i e n c e; R e l e v a n c e; G o v e r n a n c e

See also: BS76000 Valuing people in organizations; BS76005 D & I; PD76006 L & D

People data considerations

• Uniqueness

• Quality

• Access

• Privacy

• Governance

Tine Huus (2015). People Data

HCM guiding principles

• It is possible to estimate and classify value of people as well as cost• Fairness and quality in people decisions and investments generate

organisational success • People data reveals value, cost, fairness, and quality of people

(processes) across the talent management life-cycle• Human capital metrics attempt to compensate, if not eliminate,

biases and mistakes in human judgment

Huus, T. People Data: How to use and apply HCM in your company. 2015

ISO 30414 HRM: Human capital reporting

• HC: The cumulative knowledge, skills and abilities of an organization’s people and the impact on an organization’s long-term performance, as well as the competitive advantages from optimizing organization outcomes.

• HC Measurement: Enables an organization to manage one of its most critical resources and risks. Makes evident the contribution of your human capital.

Human Governance; Measuring intangibles; Data-driven management

See also: BS76000 Valuing people in organizations; BS76005 Diversity & Inclusion; PD76006 Learning & Development

The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance, but the

illusion of knowledge.

Thank you.

Thank youw.wong@cipd.co.uk@drwilsonwongHead of Insight & Futures

© 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1