© 2002 ibm corporation amsterdam 25 apr 2007 1 next generation internet policy: what will shape the...
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© 2002 IBM CorporationAmsterdam 25 Apr 2007
Next Generation Internet Policy:What will Shape the Future of the Internet?
Michael R. NelsonDirector, Internet Technology & StrategyIBM CorporationMRN@US.IBM.COM
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
My Background
B.S., geology, CaltechPh.D., geophysics, MIT1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor4 years as IT policy wonk at White House1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC8 years at IBM Industry Strategy Council, Internet2Former Chairman, TPRCFormer VP, Public Policy, Internet Society
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #1
ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #3
To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #3
To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
(preferably true)
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #5
State your conclusions upfront
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Conclusions
We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web
The next 2-3 years will define the NGI
Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation
The Internet revolution is less than 12% complete Number of users
Total bandwidth
Total amount of content
Number of devices
Number of applications
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #8
Always look beyond the headlines
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #1 - Bandwidth
THE HEADLINE Internet2 World Land Speed Record 2000 750 Mb/s2006 > 7 Gb/s
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #1 - Bandwidth
THE HEADLINE Internet2 World Land Speed Record 2000 750 Mb/s2006 > 7 Gb/s
THE OTHER NEWSLast mile technologies15-20 Mb/s at $50/month from Verizon100 Mb/s for <$40/month in Hong Kong
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #2 – Internet Video
THE HEADLINE Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows
(including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet
Apple puts movies online
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #2 – Internet Video
THE HEADLINE Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows
(including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet
Apple puts movies online
THE OTHER NEWS
Amateur and illegal video everywhere!
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
VIDEO EVERYWHERE
Bit torrent 30% of ALL traffic in 2004
50% of all traffic in 2005
70% of all traffic in some countriesAmateur video
100 million downloads/day on YouTube
Star Trek fan videos
Gaming videos
Webcams everywhere
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #3 - Grid
THE HEADLINE TeraGrid and EGEE demonstrate
<10 TeraOp/sec gridsIBM PetaOp/sec Clusters
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #3 - Grid
THE HEADLINE TeraGrid and EGEE demonstrate
<10 TeraOp/sec gridsIBM PetaOp/sec Clusters
THE OTHER NEWS
Akamai PC-based grids even more powerful
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
PC-based Grids
SETI @Home Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing
>684,000 users
>1,080,000 machines IBM’s World Community Grid
>100,000 donors
>170,000 machines Fight AIDS @ Home Dozens of other projects
http://www.distributedcomputing.info/projects.html
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Hacker attacks and mega spammers
Thousands of hackers making a living using zombies to send spam or run DDoS attacks
Take over 2000 PCs before breakfast
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Phase One – Remote Log-in – One-to-One
user
Computer Computer
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Phase One – E-mail – One-to-One
user
user
Computer Computer
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Phase Two – Web – One-to-Many
user
user
user
user user
user
Computer Computer
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Phase Three – Napster – Many-to-Many
user
user
user
useruser
user
Napster files
Napster files
Napster files
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Phase Three – Grid – Many-to-Many
user
user
user
useruser
user
Grid server
Grid server
Grid server
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Phase Three – SOA – Many-to-Many
user
user
user
useruser
user
SOA comp.
SOA comp.
SOA comp.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration
THE HEADLINE
High-end video-conferencing
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration
THE HEADLINE
High-end video-conferencing
THE OTHER NEWSThe Gaming Revolution
Producing GDP equivalent to Belgium'sMegaconferenceMay 1 Business Week cover story
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #5 - Entertainment
THE HEADLINE
News Corp. buys MySpace for $580 Million
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #5 - Entertainment
THE HEADLINE
News Corp. buys MySpace for $580 Million
THE OTHER NEWSInternet isn’t just a medium, it’s a place20 million log on every day, <20 minutesMillions of Chinese teens chatting
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Imagine the Internet with Highly Immersive, Visual Components and Social Interactions
3-D online spaces where your “avatar” can walk around in a real life setting
Build virtual buildings and machines, socialize and exchange ideas with others – even do business
…satisfying two key aspects of being human: our innately social and visual natures …
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Early Virtual Worlds Business Applications
Commerce Collaboration and Events
Education and Training
Other Emerging Applications
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #6 - Spam
THE HEADLINE
Spam is out of control
THE OTHER NEWS
The vast majority of spam is blocked and we’re making progress
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #7 - Authentication
THE HEADLINE
Microsoft Passport, Liberty Alliance
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #7 - Authentication
THE HEADLINE
Microsoft Passport, Liberty Alliance
THE OTHER NEWS
Open source, open standards, federated identity management gets real
MIT’s Technology Review Top 10 technologies
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #8 – Governments and the Net
THE HEADLINE
Internet GovernanceUnited Nations wants to control the Net
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Who “manages” the Internet?
World Summit on the Information Society Governments realizing the power of Net
Media
E-business
Threat to monopoly phone company (VoIP)
Political speech So they want to regulate or control it “Internet governance”
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
HEADLINE #8 – Governments and the Net
THE HEADLINE
Internet GovernanceUnited Nations wants to control the Net
THE OTHER NEWS
Attempts to regulate the Internet popping up everywhere
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Policy-Legal-Regulatory Ecosystem
ITU ConventionInt’l Telecom Regs
APEC-TEL
Commission of the European Community
USAFCCFCC
[WCIT][WCIT]PP2006PP2006
eSecTG
eSecTG
NSTACNSTACCanada
Australia
InfsoInfso
ParliamentParliament
Germany
NANCNANC
IndustryCanadaIndustryCanada
Many Others
CybercrimeConvention
Signatories &Justice Ministers
CITEL
DOSDOS
BNETZA-TBNETZA-T
Other multilateral and bilateral agreements
DOJDOJ DOCDOC
DHSDHS PSECPPSECP
WGSCWGSC WGANTSWGANTS
PCC.IPCC.I
NGN WGNGN WG NGN regNGN reg
ParliamentParliament
France
NetherlandsUKHomeOfficeHomeOfficeParliamentParliament
CIOTCIOTEZEZ
OFCOMOFCOM
JusticeJusticeARCEPARCEP
JusticeJustice
BfVBfV
JHAJHA
CouncilCouncil
ASIOASIO
ACAACA
DTIDTI
Tony Rutkowski, Verisign, ITU NGN workshop, March 2006
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Ten P’s of Cyber-policy
PrivacyPiracyPornographyProtectionPricingPolicingPsychologyProcurementPayments Protectionism
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #17
There is nothing more dangerous than an old model applied to a new medium
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
“Mail governance” (1950): Who made choices about postal service?
Hundreds of governments and the post offices they ran
Universal Postal Union
(customers)
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
“Phone governance” (1970): Who made choices about phone service?
Hundreds of governments
Hundreds of government-run telephone companies
International Telecommunication Union
(“subscribers”)
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
The flow of power
Governments
ITU
Phone companies
Individuals
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Who makes choices about the Net?
Dozens of intergovernmental organizations, standards bodies, and international NGOs
Hun
dred
s of
gov
ernm
ents
and
natio
nal c
onso
rtia
Thou
sand
s of
IT v
endo
rs,
netw
ork
prov
ider
s, IS
Ps…
Milli
ons
of In
tern
et u
sers
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
The flow of power
Governments
International Organizations
Vendors, ISP, software vendors
Individuals
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
WHO’S PAYING ATTENTION?
European Commission’s Television without Frontiers directive
WIPO Webcasting treatyFCC’s regulation of VoIPWiretapping and data retention requirements ITU’s Next Generation Networks initiativeTelco’s growing monopoly/duopoly powerNet Neutrality debate
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #21
In politics, you don’t beat something with nothing
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Critical technology choices Authentication and directories Privacy-enhancing technologies (P3P) Open Document Format Digital Rights Management Filtering technologies to block spam, porn Voice over IP Wireless Internet standards Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and
Grid computing Instant messaging IPv6 deployment Linking the phone network and the Internet Rich media standards (SIP, multicast, etc.) End-to-end vs. walled gardens
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Tech answers to policy problems
Privacy P3P, etc.Piracy DRMPornography Filtering tech.Protection AuthenticationPricing Grid standardsPolicing Wireless Internet Psychology Phone-Net
mergerProcurement Voice over IPPayments Protectionism
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
What is ODF, the OpenDocument Format?
An XML-based specification describing the content and formatting of a document.
The open standard developed by a multi-vendor committee at OASIS and an ISO standard.
The standard that meets the common test for openness, including IBM’s.
The default document format in StarOffice, Open Office, KOffice, IBM Workplace client, and (in 2007) Lotus Notes.
The open standard adopted by many vendors.
The option that gives you the most choices for interoperability and future-proofing your information.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
What is ODF not?
It is not dictated by a single vendor.
It is not required to be compatible with a single vendor’s commercial products.
It is not a forced commitment to either proprietary or open source software.
It is not a limitation of your choice of applications to create and process your information, now and in the future, by everyone who should have access to it.
It is not being adopted by Microsoft (yet).
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Why ODF?
Provides greater choice, greater freedom of action, greater cost effectiveness, greater access to innovation and greater control over the use of your documents and the intellectual property contained therein.
Enables efficient interchange of information between various parts of an organization and between organizations.
Unleashes a tremendous potential for technological innovation to promote organizational productivity and creativity.
Promotes value, flowing out of traditional office suites to suppliers of new innovative organizational productivity and creativity tools.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
ODF is an example of a bigger change
Application
Information
Old Style
Information is closely linked to the application that created it.
Control is with the software developer not the customer.
Application Application Application
Information
New Style
Information is represented using a real open standard not under the control of a single vendor, and multiple
applications can create and access it interchangeably.
Control is with the customer not the software provider.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
We started to see this in the 1990s
Application
Information
Old Style
Information is closely linked to the application that created it.
Control is with the software developer not the customer.
Browser Browser Browser
The Web
New Style
Information is represented using a real open standard not under the control of a single vendor, and multiple
applications can create and access it interchangeably.
Control is with the customer not the software provider.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
The trend will accelerate in the 2000s
Application
Information
Old Style
Information is closely linked to the application that created it.
Control is with the software developer not the customer.
Office Suite Web apps New apps
Documents
New Style
Information is represented using a real open standard not under the control of a single vendor, and multiple
applications can create and access it interchangeably.
Control is with the customer not the software provider.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Locus of Decision-making
No government All government
International
Regional
National
Company/Local
Individual
Internet standards
Online taxesCensorship
Telecom regulation
Spectrum policy
DNSIP addresses
Trade policy
Cyber-crime
Development aid
Spam
On-line privacy
Cyber-security
E-government
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #25
Politicians look for one SOLUTION.Techies look for SOLUTIONS.
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Locus of Decision-making
No government All government
International
Regional
National
Company/Local
Individual
Spam
(Many different decisions in many different places)
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Locus of Decision-making
No government All government
International
Regional
National
Company/Local
Individual
Internet standards
Online taxesCensorship
Telecom regulation
Spectrum policy
DNSIP addresses
Trade policy
Cyber-crime
Development aid
Spam
On-line privacy
Cyber-security
E-government
Where “Internet governance” is needed
Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation
Where are we headed?
No government All government
International
Regional
National
Company/Local
Individual
Global “Internet governance”
Scenario #1
Scenario #2
Scenario #3
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