amit nalin securities pvt. ltd. · pdf fileleverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457...

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AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ANSec Research 27 th July 2011 Investment Case: Plastic industry grew by 16% during FY2010, whereas Supreme Industries surpassed the industry growth rate by growing at 20% during the same period. Anticipating the growing demand for plastic products, Supreme’s management has layout a huge capex of Rs 1000 crore. The amount would be spent on various green field and brown field projects during FY2010-2015. Capital requirement for the capex will be met through internal accrual and debt. As per our projection company will generate sufficient operating cash flow to meet the capex requirement and the reliance on debt financing will be less. This will improve company’s profit and margin. Contribution from value added products in total sales increased from 15% during FY2007 to 25% in FY2010. It is further expected to increase to 30% in FY2011. The increased share of revenue from value added products will improve company’s margin and ROE. Supreme Industries has been very innovative with its large product portfolio. They have been constantly improving their product portfolio by introducing innovative products considering the requirement of the market. During FY2010 company had launched CPVC pipes and Aqua gold plumbing system which were well accepted by the market. Supreme is setting up a pilot plant of LPG composite gas cylinder with an annual capacity of 4 lakh tonnes. The plant will be on stream by end of CY2011. Growing demand for composite cylinder and its advantage over steel cylinder will further enhance Supreme Industries growth rate. Supreme Industries has developed a 11+2 level basement storied commercial complex at Andheri East, Mumbai. The cost of the complex was ~Rs 155 crore. The complex is accomplished with modern amenities and has saleable area of 265000sqft. Out of 265000sqft company has already sold 40000sqft and realised Rs 60 crore. The management plans to sell the entire project for Rs 375 crore by end of CY2011. Proceeding from the sale of complex will also be deployed towards the capex requirement. AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. Supreme Industries CMP: `170 Fair Value: `210 Rs in Crs. 200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e Net Sales 1654.9 2007.0 2408.4 2769.7 3268.2 EBIDTA 251.5 304.7 356.4 423.8 500.0 Net Profit 94.3 142.1 161.2 188.0 227.2 EPS 7.4 11.2 12.7 14.8 17.9 PE* - - 13.5 11.6 9.6 EV/EBIDTA - - 7.3 6.2 5.2 Mcap/Sales - - 0.9 0.8 0.7 *PE based on Standalone Profit Bloomberg Code SI.IN Reuters Code SUPI.BO Market Cap 2200cr. 52 W High 182.00 52 W Low 110.00 Average Volume 88901 Price 170 Sensex 18400 Company Information Stock Data Share Holding Pattern Promoters 49.62 Institutions 1.28 Foreign 8.11 Public 28.45 Analysts Rujuta Dalal Jitendra Kumar Vinod Malviya 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Market Cap BSE_SENSEX Amit Nalin Securities Pvt. Ltd. 142/A, Mittal Tower, Nariman Point, Mumbai- 400021. Tel.: 40021601 Fax: 22854721 E-mail: [email protected] Sensex vs Supreme’s Mcap

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Page 1: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

ANSec Research 27th July 2011

Investment Case:

Plastic industry grew by 16% during FY2010, whereas Supreme

Industries surpassed the industry growth rate by growing at 20%

during the same period. Anticipating the growing demand for plastic

products, Supreme’s management has layout a huge capex of Rs

1000 crore. The amount would be spent on various green field and

brown field projects during FY2010-2015. Capital requirement for

the capex will be met through internal accrual and debt. As per our

projection company will generate sufficient operating cash flow to

meet the capex requirement and the reliance on debt financing will

be less. This will improve company’s profit and margin.

Contribution from value added products in total sales increased

from 15% during FY2007 to 25% in FY2010. It is further expected

to increase to 30% in FY2011. The increased share of revenue from

value added products will improve company’s margin and ROE.

Supreme Industries has been very innovative with its large product

portfolio. They have been constantly improving their product

portfolio by introducing innovative products considering the

requirement of the market. During FY2010 company had launched

CPVC pipes and Aqua gold plumbing system which were well

accepted by the market. Supreme is setting up a pilot plant of LPG

composite gas cylinder with an annual capacity of 4 lakh tonnes.

The plant will be on stream by end of CY2011. Growing demand for

composite cylinder and its advantage over steel cylinder will further

enhance Supreme Industries growth rate.

Supreme Industries has developed a 11+2 level basement storied

commercial complex at Andheri East, Mumbai. The cost of the

complex was ~Rs 155 crore. The complex is accomplished with

modern amenities and has saleable area of 265000sqft. Out of

265000sqft company has already sold 40000sqft and realised Rs 60

crore. The management plans to sell the entire project for Rs 375

crore by end of CY2011. Proceeding from the sale of complex will

also be deployed towards the capex requirement.

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Supreme Industries CMP: `170 Fair Value: `210

AmitNalin Securities Pvt. Ltd.

Rs in Crs. 200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e

Net Sales 1654.9 2007.0 2408.4 2769.7 3268.2

EBIDTA 251.5 304.7 356.4 423.8 500.0

Net Profit 94.3 142.1 161.2 188.0 227.2

EPS 7.4 11.2 12.7 14.8 17.9

PE* - - 13.5 11.6 9.6

EV/EBIDTA - - 7.3 6.2 5.2

Mcap/Sales - - 0.9 0.8 0.7 *PE based on Standalone Profit

Bloomberg Code SI.IN

Reuters Code SUPI.BO

Market Cap 2200cr.

52 W High 182.00

52 W Low 110.00

Average Volume 88901

Price 170

Sensex 18400

Company Information

Stock Data

Share Holding Pattern

Promoters 49.62

Institutions 1.28

Foreign 8.11

Public 28.45

Analysts

Rujuta Dalal

Jitendra Kumar

Vinod Malviya

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 Market Cap

BSE_SENSEX

Amit Nalin Securities Pvt. Ltd.

142/A, Mittal Tower, Nariman Point, Mumbai- 400021. Tel.: 40021601 Fax: 22854721 E-mail: [email protected]

Sensex vs Supreme’s Mcap

Page 2: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Valuation (Amt in Crs.)

Standalone Value of SIL (DCF valuation) 2561

Current Mcap of Supreme Petrochem. 580

SIL's Share in Supreme Petrochem. (29.9% stake @30% discount) 121

Total Value of SIL 2682

Equity of SIL (face value of Rs 2) 25.4

Per share Value 211

Financial Analysis and Valuation

We have valued SIL on standalone basis using DCF method with

sales CAGR of 16% during FY2011-2013 and 13% during

FY2013-2015 and terminal growth of 3%. SIL’s management is

making constant effort to increase their share from value added

products. Considering this we expect EBIDTA margin to be stable

at 14-15%.

SIL has been very liberal with dividend payout. On an average of

last 5 years, company has paid out 35% of the net income in the

form of dividend. On account of high capital requirement for

capex we have considered flat payout of 30% over the next 2

years.

The debt has been calculated based on the amount of operating

cash generated by the company. As our projection company will

generate sufficient operating cash flow which will reduce reliance

on debt financing. This will improve company’s leverage and

profitability ratios.

The asset turnover is expected to come down on account of

aggressive capex plan. Lower asset turnover combined lower

leverage will also bring down company’s ROE.

SIL’s one year forward market multiple over the last 4-5 years has

been 15x (average). At current market price of Rs 170, SIL is

trading at 11.5x and 9.6x its FY2012 and FY2013 EPS of Rs 14.8

and 17.9 respectively. Considering the strong balance with lower

leverage, increasing demand for plastic products and lower

market multiple compare to its average multiple we recommend

buy on Supreme Industries with target price of Rs 210, an

upside potential of 24% from the current price of Rs 170.

Du Pont Analysis 200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e

Net Profit Margin (a) 0.0570 0.0708 0.0669 0.0679 0.0695

Leverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457

Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418

ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

Expected Dividend payout of

30% and reliance on debt will

be lower. Improving

companies leverage and

profitability ratios.

Average PE over the last 5

year is 15x and present PE

is 10x.

Page 3: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Risk Elements:

The unorganized players have been the major threat for the

organized players. The unorganized players use recycled polymers

or plastic made of plastic bags. Thus, they are they are able to

offer low quality products at cheaper rate.

The prices of the raw material (polymers) are linked to

international crude oil prices. Volatility in the oil prices led to

fluctuation and volatility in polymer prices. Oil prices over the last 1

year have been very volatile which impact the plastic player

because they have to pile in inventory. Also, intense competition

from the unorganized segment doesn’t provide opportunity to pass

the rise in input cost to the end users.

Company’s EBIDTA margin has expanded over the last 4 years on

account of increase in revenue share from value added products.

Decrease in revenue share from value added products may bring

company’s EBIDTA margin.

Change in government policy for plastic industry may adversely

impact SIL.

Page 4: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Capex Plan

Plastic Industry grew by 16% whereby SIL surpassed this growth

rate by growing at >20% during FY2010. The demand for plastic

products has increased substantially due to robust GDP growth,

growing consumerism, demand for attractive packaging and demand

from various industries, irrigation, and advantages of plastic over

steel products. Anticipating the growing demand for plastic products

management of SIL has layout a huge capex plan of Rs 1000 crore.

The amount will be spent on various green field and brown field

projects which will enhance the present capacity from 328650 MT to

595000 MT by FY2014-2015.

Divisions 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Industrial Molded Products 34700 37500 40000 46000 50000

Plastic Piping System 190000 207500 247500 300000 360000

Cross Laminated Film 17500 22500 22500 27500 27500

Protective Packaging Products 24600 27500 33000 36000 40000

Furniture 29320 40000 45000 48000 54000

Material Handling System 23030 28000 33000 36000 42000

Packaging Film 9500 9500 15500 15500 21500

Total Estimated Production Capacities 328650 372500 436500 509000 595000

Total Capex Budgeted (Crs) 273.35 204.6 159.5 200.2 155.65

Source: Company’s Presentation

We have projected sales CAGR of 16% during FY2011-2013. The

sales growth is projected based on 2x GDP growth rate and also in

line with the present industry growth rate. We believe SIL’s high

growth rate will eventually come down to industry growth rate or

1.5x GDP, so we have projected sales growth rate of 13% during

FY2013-2015. As per our projected cash flow, company will generate

sufficient operating cash to meet its capex requirement. This will

reduce its reliance on debt financing and improve company’s

profitability.

Industry growth has been

robust and SIL’s growth at

surpassed industry growth.

Sales expected to grow by

16% during FY2011-2013.

Projected Cash Flow (Rs in Crs.) 201106e 201206e 201306e 201406e 201506e

EBIT 292.3 345.7 406.8 452.0 507.8

Tax @ 35% 102.3 121.0 142.4 158.2 177.7

NOPAT 190.0 224.7 264.4 293.8 330.1

Depreciation 64.2 78.1 93.3 104.2 115.2

NOPAT + Dep. 254.1 302.8 357.7 398.0 445.3

Chg.in Working Capital 16.9 33.2 62.2 51.3 52.6

Operating Cash Flow 237.3 269.5 295.5 346.7 392.7

Capex 275.0 205.0 160.0 200.0 160.0

Page 5: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Value added Products (VAP)

VAP are products having EBIDTA margin of more than 17%. SIL’s

revenue share from VAP has increased from 15% during FY2007 to

25% during FY2010. Increased revenue from VAP coupled with

closure of two losing making units has helped SIL to expand its

blended EBIDTA margin from 10% during FY2007 to 15% in FY2010.

The management expects the share of VAP to further increase to

30% by FY2013. SIL is also able to pass on the rising cost of input

materials to the end users. In our projection, we have estimated

EBIDTA margin of ~15% during FY2011-2013.

Divisions Share of VAP

(2009) Share of VAP

(2010)

Plastic Piping 12.76% 17.08%

Molded Furniture 22.00% 27.72%

Cross Laminated Films 100.00% 100.00%

Protective Packaging 30.00% 29.97%

Total 22.96% 25.26% Source: Company’s Presentation

Constant improvement of Products

Supreme Industries has been very innovative with its large product

portfolio. They have been constantly improving their product

portfolio by introducing innovative products considering the

requirement of the market. During FY2010, company had launched

CPVC pipes and Aqua gold plumbing system which were well

accepted by the market.

Supreme is setting up a pilot plant of LPG composite gas cylinder

with an annual capacity of 4 lakh tonnes at Halol Gujarat. The cost

of the total project is Rs 60 crore and the plant is expected to be on

stream by end of CY2011. Composite cylinder has multiple

advantages over steel cylinder. They are lighter in weight and

explosion proof. Deposit amount for composite cylinder is Rs 3000

whereas for present steel cylinder is ~Rs 1500. At present, there

are 17 crore cylinder in use and the incremental demand expected

by the management is 1 crore every year with an EBIDTA margin of

~15%.

Share of value added

products expected increase to

30% by FY2011.

Constant improvement in the

product portfolio.

Page 6: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Cash flow from Real Estate Project

Supreme Industries has developed a 11 + 2 level basement

storied commercial complex at Andheri East, Mumbai. The

complex has facilities like health club, Conference Room, parking

of 350+ cars and 300+ 2 wheelers, DG back up, Green building

with gold rating from the USGBC, pocket terraces at different

levels, terrace garden, cafeteria, 6 high speed elevators and 2

service elevators. The project is ready for sale and was built with

an expenditure of Rs 155 crore. Total saleable area is 265000sqft,

out of which company has already sold 40000sqft and realised Rs

60 crore. Management plans to sell the entire project for Rs 375

crore by end of CY2011 and proceeding from the sale of complex

will be deployed towards the capex requirement. Considering the

current real estate market with high interest cost, we believe that

SIL won’t be able to sell the entire project by end of CY2011 and

the cash realization from the project will spread over the next

year.

Cash flow to be realized over

the next 2 years and would

be deployed for capex

requirement.

Page 7: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Company Description

Supreme Industries (SIL), a Mumbai based firm, is one of the largest

plastic processor in India. It is engaged in processing of polymers

and resins into finished plastic products. SIL has 29.9% stake in

Supreme Petrochem and 100% stake in Supreme Industries

Overseas.

SIL has been in Indian Plastic Industry for over 44 years. It has 19

manufacturing facilities spread all over India and operates in four

divisions i.e. Plastic Pipes, Consumer Products (furniture), Industrial

Products, and Packaging Products. With presence in plastic industry

from 1967, SIL has established strong brand equity and captured

significant market share in all the four verticals. During FY2010, SIL

had 7.3%% market share in Plastic Pipes, 13% in Consumer

products, 18% in Industrial Products, and ~33% in Protective

Packaging Products.

SIL

Plastic Pipes

Consumer

Products

(furniture)

Industrial

Products

Packaging

Products

uPVC Pipes,

Injection Molded

fittings, Handmade fittings,

Polypropylene

Random,

Co-polymer Pipes &

Fittings,

HDPE Pipe Systems,

CPVC Pipes Systems,

LLDPE Tube

Inspection Chambers

Furniture

Mats

Industrial

Component

Material

Handling Products ( Crates, Pallets & Dustbins)

Specialty Films

Protective

Packaging products

Cross

Laminated films

Supreme Petrochem (SPL), a BSE & NSE listed company, is one of

the largest single site polystyrene accounting for 2% of world’s

capacity and 60% of India’s capacity. It is single largest exporter

of Polystyrene and caters to more than 90 countries. SPL has

technical collaboration with NOVA INC of USA with Buy Back

arrangement of EPS cup grade production.

Products Capacity (FY2010)

Polystyrene 272000 TPA

Compounded Polymers 33500 TPA

EPS 27700 TPA

XPS 150000 M3

Page 8: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

AmitNalin Securities Pvt. Ltd.

Management has layout a roadmap for SPL under which its

volume sales is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.6% during

FY2011-2014. SPL will incur capex of Rs 125 crore to enhance its

present capacity of EPS, compounded polymers, and new power

gas project.

Product Details

Plastic Pipes: This segment contributed 44% in total revenue

and 34% in EBIDTA during FY2010. EBITDTA margin has

improved from ~10% during FY2007 to ~12% during FY2010.

The share of value added products in plastic pipes has increased

from 13% during FY2009 to 17% in FY2010. Demand for PVC

pipes is largely driven by micro irrigation, housing segment and

other infrastructure activities. Almost 50% of the demand for PVC

pipes comes from micro irrigation, 40% from housing segment

and the remaining from infrastructure activities.

SIL’s plastic pipe segment has registered sales CAGR of 25%

during FY2007-2010. This has been accomplished by introducing

new products as per the requirements of the customers. SIL

through its various programs has built strong brand equity. The

quality of product manufactured produced by SIL are

acknowledged as best in the market place. SIL is the only

company which has various systems required in the field of

Irrigation, water transportation, industrial usage, infrastructure

requirements, Borewell, requirement for building industry,

sewerage and rain water harvesting available under one roof.

Consumer Products (furniture and mats)

Consumer Products segment contributed 12% in total sales and

11% in EBIDTA during FY2010. SIL has second largest market

share in this segment and earns EBIDTA margin of 15%. Nilkamal

is the market leader in this segment. The target customers are

retail stores and exports. The products are offered through its

own 209 retail showrooms across India. The retail showrooms are

expected to increase from current 209 to 300 by end of CY2011.

Share of value added products (molded furniture) increased from

22% during FY2009 to 28% in FY2010. Mat is largely for export

purpose. During FY2010, demand was drastically hit due to

recession in the developed markets.

34

11 18

31

6

EBIDTA Contribution (FY2010)

Plastic

Pipes

Consumer

Products

Industrial

Products

Packaging

Other

44

12

20

24

Revene Contribution (FY2010)

Plastic

Pipes

Consumer

Products

Industrial

Products

Packaging

Page 9: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Industrial Products

Industrial products contributed 20% in total sales and 18% in

EBIDTA during FY2010. SIL is a major player in industrial

products segment, manufacturing industrial component and

material handling with blended EBIDTA margin of ~14%. Demand

for industrial products is largely driven by auto sector and

consumer durables sector. SIL is the largest supplier of plastic

container to the soft drink industry. SIL has received various

orders from companies such as whirlpool, TATA Motors, TATA

chemicals and Maruti Suzuki etc.

Supreme is setting up a pilot plant of LPG composite gas cylinder

with an annual capacity of 4 lakh tonnes. The plant will be on

stream by end of CY2011. Growing demand for cylinder and its

advantage over steel cylinder will further enhance Supreme

Industries growth rate.

Packaging products

Packaging products contributed 24% in total sales and 31% in the

EBIDTA during FY2010. Products offered under packaging

portfolio are packaging films, protective packaging products,

cross laminated films with blended EBIDTA margin of ~19%. Key

categories under packaging products are Protective Packaging,

Specialty Films, and Cross Laminated Films. The demand for

packaging is driven by Electronics, Food Industry, Sports Goods,

Insulation, Construction, Agriculture, Grain Storage and

Tarpaulin. SIL is the only company to have the technology to

manufacture XF films under the brand name “Silpaulin”. The

share of value added products is 100% under cross laminated

films and 30% under protective packaging.

Page 10: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Industry Overview

Indian plastic industry is highly unorganized with >50% of the revenue

contributed by small scale industries. The per capita consumption of

polymer by India is very low compare to other developed and emerging

markets. Due to low penetration and large untapped market, the sector

provides huge opportunities in the future. Plastic consumption in India

was 8 million tonnes in 2010, which is expected to double by 2018

providing huge opportunity for the plastic players.

Dynamics of the Industry

The entry barriers to the industry are very low, whereby new players

can enter the market easy and provide strong threat to the existing

players. Also, the capital requirement in entering the industry is very

low.

The bargaining power of the supplier is medium in the industry due to

increased capacity by most of the polymer supplier in India. Also there

are very few domestic supplier of polymer in India.

Almost 70% of the sector is unorganized so substitute low quality

goods are available at lower prices. This considerably increased the

bargaining power of the buyers in the sector.

Since entry barriers to the sector are low and high substitute products

building brand equity is very essential. Hence, most of the companies

in the organized segment have built strong brand equity through

various programs.

Opportunities

The industry is very labour intensive and availability of cheap labour in

India will boost up the prospect of the companies. This also gives

Indian companies competitive advantage over foreign players.

Strong GDP growth rate and growing consumerism in India coupled

with need for attractive packaging requirement are expected to keep

the demand for plastic at higher levels.

Strong GDP will increase the demand for Automobiles & FMCG,

governments spending on rural areas and irrigation facilities will also

increase, which would indirectly increase the demand for plastic

products.

Threats

The unorganized players have been the major threat for the organized

players. The unorganized players use recycled polymers or plastic

made of plastic bags. Thus, they are they are able to offer low quality

products at cheaper rate.

The prices of the raw material (polymers) are linked to international

crude oil prices. Volatility in the oil prices led to fluctuation and

volatility in polymer prices. Oil prices over the last 1 year have been

very volatile which impact the plastic player because they have to pile

in inventory. Also, intense competition from the unorganized segment

doesn’t provide opportunity to pass the rise in input cost to the end

users.

Page 11: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Ratio analysis 200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e

Current ratio 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6

ROE % 32.8 39.6 34.5 32.3 31.7

ROCE % 34.9 42.1 35.2 31.6 32.9

ROA % 16.5 23.8 19.4 17.2 18.4

Dividend Payout % 32.3 32.2 30.0 30.0 30.0

DE 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6

Leverage 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.6

Asset TO 2.9 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.6

Fixed Asset TO 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.4

Interest coverage 3.6 7.2 6.6 6.1 7.1

Inventory TO 6.3 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.0

Creditors TO 7.0 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.6

Debtors TO 13.1 16.3 16.1 15.3 14.9

Inventory days 58.0 63.0 60.8 61.5 60.7

Creditors days 51.9 50.9 53.8 56.2 55.3

Debtors days 27.9 22.4 22.7 23.9 24.5

Cash Conversion cycle days 34.0 34.5 29.7 29.2 29.9

Free Cash Flow (Rs in Crs.) 200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e

EBIT 198.9 251.7 292.3 345.7 406.8

Tax @ 35% 69.6 88.1 102.3 121.0 142.4

NOPAT 129.3 163.6 190.0 224.7 264.4

Depreciation 52.6 52.9 64.2 78.1 93.3

NOPAT + Dep. 181.8 216.6 254.1 302.8 357.7

Chg. Working Capital 15.2 20.0 16.9 33.2 62.2

Operating Cash Flow 166.6 196.6 237.3 269.5 295.5

Capex 88.0 78.4 275.0 205.0 160.0

FCFF 78.6 118.2 -37.7 64.5 135.5

Net Debt -70.6 -45.9 110.0 31.2 -17.4

Interest Cost Adj. 36.3 22.7 28.8 36.7 37.2

FCFE -28.2 49.7 43.5 59.1 80.9

Free Cash Flow

Ratio

ROE is expected to come

down on account of lower

leverage and low Asset TO.

Aggressive capex plan will

bring down company’s

Asset TO in the short run.

Inventory days is expected

to be stable on growing

demand for plastic

products, whereas debtors

day is expected to improve

due to company’s strict

policy. Hence company’s

working capital will

improve.

With expected sales growth

of 16% and stable EBIDTA

margin of 14-15%,

company will generate

sufficient cash flow.

Market Multiples 201106e 201206e 201306e

PE* 13.5 11.6 9.6

PBV 4.2 3.4 2.8

EV/EBIDTA 7.3 6.2 5.2

Mcap/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.7 *PE based on standalone

Page 12: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

Rs In Crs. 200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e

Net Sales 1654.9 2007.0 2408.4 2769.7 3268.2

Other Income 13.6 16.1 24.1 27.7 32.7

Total Income 1668.6 2023.1 2432.5 2797.4 3300.9

Raw Materials 1054.2 1309.3 1589.6 1814.1 2140.7

Power & Fuel Cost 68.6 80.3 96.3 110.8 130.7

Employee Cost 61.5 71.6 91.5 105.2 124.2

Other Manufacturing Expenses 60.0 82.0 93.9 108.0 127.5

Selling and Administration Expenses 152.5 166.2 192.7 221.6 261.5

Total Expenditure 1414.4 1728.2 2076.1 2373.6 2800.9

EBIDTA 251.5 304.7 356.4 423.8 500.0

Interest 55.8 34.9 44.2 56.4 57.2

EBDT 195.6 269.8 312.2 367.3 442.9

Depreciation 52.6 52.9 64.2 78.1 93.3

Profit Before Tax 143.1 216.9 248.0 289.2 349.6

Tax 48.7 74.8 86.8 101.2 122.4

Standalone Profit 94.3 142.1 161.2 188.0 227.2

Income Statement

200906 201006 201106e 201206e 201306e

SOURCES OF FUNDS :

Share Capital 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4

Reserves Total 278.7 388.7 494.3 617.4 766.3

Total Shareholders’ Funds 304.1 414.1 519.7 642.8 791.7

Total Debt 433.2 387.4 497.4 528.6 511.2

Total Liabilities 552.9 643.1 1017.0 1171.4 1302.8

APPLICATION OF FUNDS :

Gross Block 903.6 968.9 1243.9 1448.9 1608.9

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 359.3 403.3 467.5 545.6 638.9

Net Block 544.3 565.6 776.4 903.3 970.0

Investments 49.6 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3

Current Assets

Inventories 245.5 290.6 337.2 387.8 457.6

Sundry Debtors 115.3 131.0 168.6 193.9 245.1

Cash and Bank 10.7 18.7 19.6 13.8 16.3

Loans and Advances 72.1 97.8 106.0 121.9 143.8

Total Current Assets 443.6 538.2 631.3 717.3 862.8

Less : Current Liabilities

Current Liabilities 192.1 253.6 315.5 362.8 428.1

Provisions 56.1 61.3 74.7 85.9 101.3

Total Current Liabilities 248.2 314.8 390.2 448.7 529.5

Net Current Assets 195.5 223.4 241.2 268.7 333.4

Total Assets 552.9 643.1 1017.0 1171.4 1302.8

Balance Sheet

Sales expected to grow @

16% during FY2011-2013.

EBIDTA margin of 14-15%.

Gross block to grow at

17% during FY2011-2013

on account of aggressive

capex plan.

Page 13: AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD. · PDF fileLeverage (b) 1.8179 1.5532 1.9570 1.8222 1.6457 Asset TO (c) 2.9010 3.3562 2.9015 2.5313 2.6418 ROE (a*b*c) 0.3006 0.3690 0.3801 0.3131 0.3023

AMIT NALIN SECURITIES PVT. LTD.

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performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections.

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