amherst, ny may 22, 2006 - natural gas & …...sdadrp – day ahead spot market sale of load...
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© Copyright 2005 UtiliPoint® International, Inc.All rights reserved. Confidential and Proprietary
Getting the Most Out of Hourly Pricing
Prepared by:
UtiliPoint InternationalRLW Analytics
For:
National Grid’s Customer Meeting Amherst, NY May 22, 2006
Funding provided by
New York State Energy Research Authority
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© Copyright 2005 UtiliPoint® International, Inc.All rights reserved. Confidential and Proprietary
Presentation Outline
1. Day-Ahead Price Topology2. Customer Experience with Hourly
Pricing of Electricity3. Who Responds to Prices, and Why?4. Strategies to Get the Most Out of
Hourly Pricing 5. Questions and Comments
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© Copyright 2005 UtiliPoint® International, Inc.All rights reserved. Confidential and Proprietary
Day-Ahead Price Typology
Section 1.0
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© Copyright 2005 UtiliPoint® International, Inc.All rights reserved. Confidential and Proprietary
2Day-Ahead Price Topology
New York City Zone (J)Eastern NY Superzone
Capital (F)Hudson Valley (G)Millwood (H)Dunwoodie (I)
Upstate NY SuperzoneWest (A)Genesee (B)Central (C)North (D)Mohawk Valley (E)
F
I
GC
E
D
H
B
A
Western NY
Eastern NY
NYC
Long IslandJ K
NYISO Pricing Zones
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Historical Western NY LBMP Average Hourly Weekday Prices by Month
2West
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
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<$50/MWh$50-$100/MWh>$100/MWh
Nov 1999
May 2001
Nov 2000
Nov 2001
May 2000
Nov 2002
May 2002
Nov 2003
May 2003
Nov 2005
May 2005
Nov 2004
May 2004
Since 1999, prices have generally increased Higher than normal prices occurred in overnight hours over several months in 2003, 2004 and 2005Entire daylight hours in Sep. and Oct. ’05 had prices > $100/MWh
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Historical Western NY LBMP Maximum Hourly Weekday Prices by Month
2West
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
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<$50/MWh$50-$100/MWh>$100/MWh
Nov 2005
May 2005
Nov 2004
May 2004
Nov 2003
May 2003
Nov 2002
May 2002
Nov 2001
May 2000
Nov 1999
May 2001
Nov 2000
Higher maximum hourly prices generally occur in summer and winter monthsPrices can exceed $100/MWh even in traditional off-peak (overnight) hoursSignificant number of high priced hours in late 2005 over nearly the entire day
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Historical Western NY LBMP Frequency of Prices Exceeding Threshold
2West
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Jan
FebMar
AprMay
JunJul
AugSep
OctNov
Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Freq
uenc
y
$/Mwh
Prices exceeded $200/MWh in August onlyDec., Sep. and Oct. exhibit prices $100 -$150 /MWH more frequently than all summer monthsGenerally, spring produces infrequent high prices
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2Future Hourly Price Topology
Trend 2002 – 2004 was higher average prices, lower price volatility
Most zones had sufficient generation or import capabilityOccasional episodes of higher mid-day prices, especially in the summer
2005 was differentOverall prices soared in the winter due to NG price risesHighest price volatility since 2002, despite adequate supplies
What’s in store for 2006-2008?Tightening supply situation in many zonesLimited transmission additions to relieve congestionUncertainty about NG and oil prices
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Customer Experience with Hourly Pricing
Section 2.0
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Customer Experience with Hourly Pricing
3
Strategies for adapting to hourly pricesReduce discretionary use
Reduce HVAC, dim lighting, shut down some elevator banks
Shift load to lower priced time of the dayReschedule process, labor
Operate on-site generationCustomer Experiences
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Self-Reported Price Response Capability: What Customers Told Us
• 28% of customers say they are unable to curtail load• 70% can either forego or shift load or utilize onsite generation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Pe
rcen
t of S
urve
y R
espo
nden
ts
17%
5%
33%
7%9%
28%1%
Respond Don't respond Don't know
N=76onsite generation
shift
forego
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© Copyright 2005 UtiliPoint® International, Inc.All rights reserved. Confidential and Proprietary
How Customers Say They Respond to Hourly Prices
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Shift andForego
Only Shift Only Forego Forego andOnsite
Generation
Only OnsiteGeneration
None
Num
ber o
f Cus
tom
er A
ccou
nts
~30% of customers say they are unable to curtail load~70% can either forego or shift load or utilize onsite generation
N = 76
Public WorksManufacturingHealthcareGovernment & EducationCommercial & Retail
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3Responding to High Hourly Prices
Actions to Respond to High Prices Percentage of Customers
Asked Employees to Reduce Usage 32%Reduced/Halted Air Conditioning 28%Shut Down Equipment 23%Turned Off or Dimmed Lights 19%Altered Major Production Processes 8%None 6%Reduced Plug Loads (e.g. Office Equipment) 6%Shut Down Plant or Building 6%Reduced/Halted Refrigeration/Water Heating 4%Halted Major Production Processes 4%Started On-Site/Backup Generation 2%
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How Customers Report Using Enabling Technologies
3
-9-Monitoring and analysis*
2--Cogeneration40--Emergency backup
1112147
Energy Information
Systems (EIS)
-28Facility/process control*115Reduce peak-demand cost224Reduce electricity bills36Respond to high prices
Onsite generation
(N = 42)
EMCS or Peak Load Mgmt
DevicesAction
• Only 15-20% of customers use DR enabling technologies to respond to high hourly prices; primarily used for facility/process automation control, to reduce overall utility bills and peak demand charges
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Barriers to Responding toHigh Hourly Electricity Prices
Tools are now available
More products available
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Who Responds to Hourly Prices, and Why?
Section 3.0
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Key Drivers to Price Response
Customer CircumstancesManagement commitment, internal championOperable on-site generation Process or business activity flexibility, extra capacityDiscretionary, especially heat-sensitive loadsSurplus, underused capacity
Price CharacteristicsEvent price topology Event frequencyValue of incentives, impact of penalties
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Intensity of Price Response – Relative Price Response Capability
ExamplesPI Metric
Buildings with
controls, gen
0.0
1.0
Pipe Line
Flexible batch
operations
Fabrication, assembly
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Intensity of Price Response – NGRID Customers after 5 Years Experience
Relative Price Response Intensity
0.17
0.11
Commer-cial
0.06
Health
0.03
0.10
Public Works.
0.01
Load Wtg. Average
Govt Edu
Manuf.
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Manufacturing Customer Class Price Responsiveness Intensity
3
R&D Facility, Paper Mill
Building Materials
Building Materials,
Food Processing
Paper Mill,
Building Materials
Lowest Avg Highest
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Government/Education Customer Class Price Responsiveness Intensity
3
College, School District College, Gov’t Offices Gov’t Offices
Lowest Avg Highest
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Commercial/Retail Customer Class Price Responsiveness Intensity
3
Shopping Mall, Entertainment facilities
Theme Park, Office Park
Ski Resort,
Condo Complex
Lowest Avg Highest
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Health Care Customer Class Price Responsiveness Intensity
3
Hospital, Nursing Home Hospital Hospital
Lowest Avg Highest
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Key Drivers to Price Response
Customer CircumstancesManagement commitment, internal championOperable on-site generation Process or business activity flexibility, extra capacityDiscretionary, especially heat-sensitive loadsSurplus, underused capacity
Price CharacteristicsEvent price topology Event frequencyValue of incentives, impact of penalties
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Identifying Opportunities for Price Response
5
“Can’t control what you don’t measure”Need to start with an understanding of facility usage profiles and how different loads impact the profile
Planning is importantNeed to identify loads to be shed or shifted and who is responsible for implementing and notification
Enabling Technologies can automate the process and maximize results
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Strategies to Get the Most Out of Hourly Pricing
Section 4.0
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Strategic Alternatives 4
Pay Hourly PricesHedged Service for ESCOFinancial HedgesParticipate in NYISO Demand Response Programs
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Strategy - Pay Hourly Prices
ProsAvoid paying the hedged service risk premiumAccess to low cost power many business hours of the yearManaging electricity may produce spill-over benefits
ConsRequires price response actions
Costs and inconvenience May require investment
Exposure can changePrice topology can change
Default MHP from your utilityCompetitive ESCO equivalent
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Strategy - Contract for Hedged Service with ESCO
ProsBill certaintyAdjust exposure as business circumstances changeLeverage for negotiating a deal
ConsInvolves paying a hedging premiumBuyer’s remorse; did I pay too much?Missed opportunities tolower bill
Load covered - full or partialTime covered – daily, seasonal, episodic
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Strategy - Financial Hedges
Buy at hourly priceEstablish a side deal to limit price risks
Price Cap collarAverage price guaranteeContract for differences
ProsFlexibility TransparencyCustomized solutions
ConsSpecter of Sarbanes-OxleyLack of comparative products -what constitutes a good deal?Availability may be limited
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NYISO Demand Response Programs 4
Provide opportunities to patricide directly in wholesale markets, as a resource
EDRP – Emergency-only resources (2 hour notice)ICAP/SCR – capacity resource, day-ahead warning, used when neededDADRP – day ahead spot market sale of load curtailment capabilityAncillary services – real time (10 minutes) delivery of curtailments
Available from utility, your ESCO, a curtailment service provider
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What is the Value of Price Response? 4
EDRP DADRPICAP
Supplement to either default HP or competitive product
Utility, competitive retailer, curtailment service provider, direct from NYISO
Source of inducement to adjust usage
Two-hour notice to curtail enrolled kW
Bid kW day-ahead to be
paid to curtail
HP
Basic service
Type
Utility
New HR schedule every day
Adjust to pay lower
prices• Up-front $/kW
payment• Avoid penalty
Bid kW day-ahead to be
paid to curtail
$/kWh payment for kWh curtailed
From
Inducement
Incentive
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4Benefits from Price Response
• Value per 100 kW load over April - September• 2005 LMPs (Hourly pricing, DADRP)• 20 curtailment hours per year (EDPR, ICAP)
West
HP EDRP DADRPICAP
Benefits of Price ResponseBenefits
Range
Average(2001-5)
$446 -981
$100-2,500
$0 –1250
$0 -315
$657 $1,000 $ 600 $63
Values represent estimates of benefits received by in recent years. Actual values vary according to the circumstances under which the customer enrolled in a program.
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Comments and Questions 7
What’s on your mind?