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American Foreign Policy and East Asia Spring, 2014

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(North)East Asia ?

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Relationship Trade Deficit? Rising China? Energy issues? Human Rights?

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Relationship

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After World War Bilateral Approach (hub-and-spoke) The U.S. & Japan (1951), South Korea(1953), Nationalist China (1954) NATO

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Why the bilateral approach? Relative Size of the Regional Actors Geographic Characteristics State-level Factors: Japans Characteristics Diversity Institutional Path-dependence

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Relationship China-Taiwan-US

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Current Relationship between China and Taiwan? Couldnt be better! - In February, the first official direct talk since 1949. - A possible summit in November? - Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (June, 2013) - Allowing Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan - Direct flight between China and Taiwan Since Ma, Ying-Jeou became the president in 2008

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China-Taiwan-US Trade: (in hundred million dollars)* YearTotalExport to Taiwan Import from Taiwan 200712452351010 200812922591033 20091062205857 201014542971157 201116003511249 201216903681322 201319724061566 *Chinas Taiwan Affairs Office

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China-Taiwan-US People visiting each others territory (in ten thousand)* YearTaiwanese to Mainland Chinese to Taiwan Total 200746323486 200843728465 200944894542 2010514166680 2011526184710 2012534263797 2013516292808 *Chinas Taiwan Affairs Office

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China-Taiwan-US 1950: During Korean War, Deployment of The Seventh Fleet 1954-55/1958: The First and Second Taiwan Strait Crisis 1979: U.S. Recognition of The PRC & The Taiwan Relations Act 1995-1996: The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis 2005: China passed the Anti-Secession Law

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1995/1996 the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis The Trigger --U.S. approval of a visa for Lee Teng-hui to visit the United States (May, 22, 1995) What happened: Series of Missile Tests by China and Taiwan China: July, 1995 / August, 1995 /March, 1996 Taiwan: September, 1995 The U.S. :Deployment of two carrier battle groups March, 1996

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1995/1996 the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis Taiwanese Domestic Politics TaiwanChinaUS

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Relationship China-Japan-US

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Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) BBC Interview From CNN

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Relationship Japan-Korea-US

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Alliance Management 1) Territorial disputes /West Sea Dokdo / Takeshima

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Japan-Korea-US Alliance Management 1) Territorial disputes 2) History : Yasukuni shrine, Comfort women, and history textbook.

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Relationship North Korea-US-Others

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North Korea - 1st Nuclear Crisis (1993-1994) North Korea Threatened to withdraw from NPT Carters mediation Agreed Framework

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North Korea -2nd Nuclear Crisis (2002-) October, 2002: North Korea admitted that it had a secret nuclear weapons program August, 2003: Six-Party Talk October, 2006: North Korea tested its first nuclear weapons May, 2009: the second test Feb, 2013: the third test

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North Korea Divergent Interests? Source: Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks by John S. Park Issue U.S. PRC Japan ROK High priority Nuclear Proliferation Refugees Ballistic Missiles

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North Korea Change of Leadership in North Korea Change in Chinese perception of North Korea? Recent events: - Unofficial meeting between North Korea and Japan regarding the investigation on kidnapped Japanese -North Korea threatened to conduct another nuclear test -Efforts to resume six-party talks

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Conclusion Pivot to Asia? Complicated relationship between states in East Asia Pay attention to news this week! 23-25: Japan 25-26: Korea (Malaysia / Philippines)