amárach economic recovery index november 2013
DESCRIPTION
Recovery gathering momentum? Our latest report on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. More here: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htmTRANSCRIPT
1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing November 2013 (including analysis by main paper; TV provider; mobile network)
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
Momentum
Success in business and marketing is all about
momentum, and right now our Economic
Recovery Index is gathering momentum, reaching
in November its highest level for the second
month in a row.
In recent months we have seen a gradual
improvement in general sentiment about the
economy – but in November we have seen a
gradual improvement in sentiment about the
consumer, including spending intentions.
It’s still too early to call, but a gradual alignment
of positive macro sentiment with positive micro
behaviour could finally deliver a pick up in
consumer and retail spending.
Fingers crossed for a positive turn going into
2014.
3 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out four years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
November 2013.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 11th-18th November 2013 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – if you
want us to conduct additional analyses (by
brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.
4 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index rose further to 29.6 in November 2013, breaking all records since we began
tracking the mood of the nation in April 2009:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ap
r '0
9
Jun
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'13
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
5 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 26%
Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 36%
Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 32%
Oct ’13: 4% Nov ’13: 5%
Oct ’13: 0% Nov ’13: 0%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:
6 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables I
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8
Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3
Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3
Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6
Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4
Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6
7 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Nov-09 41 45 51 52
Nov-10 18 32 33 45
Nov-11 23 34 42 45
Nov-12 27 34 44 43
Oct-13 30 36 44 43
Nov-13 36 42 49 44
8 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Tables III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Nov-09 16 27 62 28
Nov-10 11 24 50 20
Nov-11 15 26 55 23
Nov-12 16 25 53 22
Oct-13 18 24 57 24
Nov-13 22 24 54 26
9 Economic Recovery Index
Financial Resilience I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 9% 8% 10% 11% 8% 6% 9% 11% 14% 13% 6%
Slightly Agree 33% 37% 29% 31% 39% 30% 23% 36% 34% 40% 26%
Neither/Nor 14% 18% 10% 15% 15% 16% 13% 12% 14% 16% 12%
Slightly Disagree 21% 18% 24% 25% 19% 24% 24% 16% 18% 17% 25%
Strongly Disagree 20% 18% 23% 14% 17% 22% 28% 21% 18% 13% 27%
10 Economic Recovery Index
Financial Resilience II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network):
“I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Irish
Times
Irish
Indepe
ndent
Irish
Daily
Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile
Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46
Strongly Agree 9% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% 8% 10% 9% 12% 4%
Slightly Agree 33% 40% 39% 27% 31% 38% 33% 30% 32% 44% 31%
Neither/Nor 14% 15% 15% 19% 16% 12% 15% 13% 13% 8% 29%
Slightly Disagree 21% 15% 20% 21% 19% 21% 21% 25% 20% 17% 15%
Strongly Disagree 20% 15% 17% 20% 24% 16% 20% 21% 21% 18% 16%
11 Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 6% 6% 5% 9% 9% 3% 4% 3% 7% 6% 6%
Slightly Agree 16% 18% 14% 18% 18% 14% 14% 15% 18% 19% 12%
Neither/Nor 19% 22% 16% 17% 16% 20% 14% 24% 22% 23% 15%
Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 27% 28% 28% 28% 22% 22% 23% 27% 25%
Strongly Disagree 33% 28% 38% 25% 27% 34% 46% 36% 29% 24% 41%
12 Economic Recovery Index
Spendthrift II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network):
“I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Irish
Times
Irish
Indepe
ndent
Irish
Daily
Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile
Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46
Strongly Agree 9% 7% 9% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 4% 9%
Slightly Agree 20% 17% 19% 15% 18% 18% 12% 14% 24% 18% 20%
Neither/Nor 22% 19% 15% 17% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 22% 22%
Slightly Disagree 26% 23% 31% 26% 27% 25% 24% 28% 31% 24% 26%
Strongly Disagree 24% 33% 25% 35% 28% 32% 38% 32% 20% 32% 24%
13 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
Ma
yJun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan'1
0F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJune
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan'1
1F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJune
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan'1
2F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJune
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan'1
3F
eb
Ma
rA
pr
Ma
yJune
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
14 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr
'09
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan'1
0
Feb
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan'1
1
Feb
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan'1
2
Feb
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan'1
3
Feb
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
No
v
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
15 Economic Recovery Index
Emotions Summary Table
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes:
% Enjoyment Happ-
iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
Nov-09 50 51 50 42 33 20 21 18
Nov-10 45 48 51 46 38 24 21 25
Nov-11 53 50 48 45 34 21 24 18
Nov-12 53 49 46 43 31 21 25 18
Oct-13 54 50 47 43 32 23 26 16
Nov-13 53 49 45 40 34 22 25 18
16 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods I
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Enjoyment 53% 52% 54% 50% 53% 48% 48% 63% 53% 59% 48%
Happiness 49% 50% 48% 59% 55% 45% 44% 44% 50% 56% 44%
Stress 45% 43% 48% 56% 48% 54% 47% 29% 47% 45% 45%
Worry 40% 38% 41% 45% 42% 43% 38% 33% 41% 40% 39%
Anxiety 34% 30% 37% 36% 34% 35% 34% 29% 33% 33% 34%
Boredom 27% 28% 26% 52% 31% 22% 19% 17% 29% 26% 28%
Physical Pain 25% 22% 29% 28% 21% 20% 27% 31% 29% 24% 26%
Sadness 22% 19% 26% 30% 24% 19% 18% 21% 20% 23% 22%
Anger 18% 19% 17% 26% 18% 23% 19% 8% 20% 18% 18%
Fear 14% 14% 13% 14% 17% 15% 16% 8% 15% 13% 14%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2013
17 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods II
Source: Amárach Research, November 2013
November 2013 TOTAL Irish
Times
Irish
Indepe
ndent
Irish
Daily
Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile
Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46
Enjoyment 53% 61% 57% 59% 53% 55% 53% 52% 54% 58% 42%
Happiness 49% 52% 47% 58% 47% 54% 51% 46% 54% 58% 39%
Stress 45% 43% 40% 54% 48% 43% 47% 43% 47% 52% 44%
Worry 40% 44% 41% 49% 40% 40% 37% 42% 42% 38% 35%
Anxiety 34% 35% 32% 40% 35% 34% 38% 32% 31% 36% 30%
Boredom 27% 24% 22% 26% 25% 28% 25% 25% 32% 39% 17%
Physical Pain 25% 26% 21% 25% 24% 28% 25% 25% 26% 22% 27%
Sadness 22% 25% 20% 31% 21% 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 35%
Anger 18% 15% 14% 26% 19% 16% 19% 15% 19% 16% 28%
Fear 14% 18% 12% 20% 12% 14% 14% 13% 12% 13% 16%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: November 2013 (by newspaper/tv service/mobile network)
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Trends Report
Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack
your way to growth in 2014:
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For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm