alyssa rosemartin university of arizona
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Phenology, Climate Change and the USA-NPN. Alyssa Rosemartin University of Arizona. www.usanpn.org. How might species respond to climate change?. No change Extinction Move with climate Stay, but adapt Morphology Phenology. English Oak. Winter Moth. Pied Flycatcher. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Alyssa RosemartinUniversity of Arizona
www.usanpn.org
Phenology, Climate Change and the USA-NPN
How might species respond to climate change?
• No change
• Extinction
• Move with climate
• Stay, but adapt– Morphology– Phenology
English Oak
Winter Moth
Pied Flycatcher Both et al. 2006 Nature
EARLIER
SAME TIME EACH YEAR
EARLIER
A three-way mismatch
Study of timing of plant & animal life cycle events
Phenology
How else might phenology impact species, ecosystems and humans?
Shifting Phenology in the Catalinas
- Timing of spring flowering- Low elevation species most influenced by
precipitation & temperatures of the previous fall- High elevation species are more affected by spring
temperatures, more like temperate systems
- Timing of summer flowering- Highly variable- Tied to monsoon onset across elevations
Crimmins et al. 2010
• 26% of species show some sort of change in flowering range:
– 13% species exhibited “range shift upslope”
– 37% species exhibited “range expansion upslope”
– 25% species exhibited “range contraction upslope”
Shifting Phenology in the Catalinas
Crimmins et al. 2009
Shifting Phenology
1977: 3,000 Brant overwintered in Alaska
Today: 40,000 overwinter
Ward et al. 2009
Weishampel et al. 2004 GCB
Year
Shifting Phenology
Relationship to Populations & Distributions
Willis et al. 2008 PNASMoller et al. 2008 PNAS
Willis et al. 2010 PLOS BiologyHulme 2010 New Phyt.
Change in phenology
Pop
ulat
ions
& D
istr
ibut
ions
0
+
Increasing
Decreasing
Fotolia
Steve Scott
Field skipper: 1 day earlier/year
Red admiral: 1 day earlier/year
Forister and Shapiro 2003 GCB
Shifting Phenology
• Science
• Predictive services
• Health
• Resource mgmt
• Conservation
• Agriculture
• Ecosystem services
• Recreation
Applications and decision-support tools
Timing of Management Practices
Juniper Phenology
Observations
Satellite Imagery
Predictive Modeling
Allergen Alerts
Juniper Pollen Project
“Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species
in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007)
What is USA-NPN?
The USA National Phenology Network brings together…
citizen scientists,
government agencies,
non-profit groups,
educators and
students of all ages
to monitor the impacts of climate on plants and animals in the United States.
What is USA-NPN?
Key Goal
• Understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to environmental variation and climate change.
What is USA-NPN?
Steve Ringman, The Seattle TimesRoss Franklin, AP
Our Vision
•Encourage people of all ages and
backgrounds to observe and record
phenology.
•Make phenology data, models, and related information
available to scientists, resource managers,
and the public.
What is USA-NPN?
Data are available for download
Dynamic Visualization Tool :
What is USA-NPN?
Key sponsors and collaborators…
The Great Sunflower Project
What is USA-NPN?
a project of the USA-NPN
What is Nature’s Notebook?
Nature’s Notebook is USA-NPN’s plant and
animal phenology observation program.
What is Nature’s Notebook?
Nature’s Notebook engages scientists and citizen
scientists to collect phenology observations on:
• 258+ plant species
• 160+ animal species
What is Nature’s Notebook?
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