aluminum rolling outlook · 2018-01-10 · requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling...

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Platts Aluminum Symposium Presented by Nick Madden Senior Vice President and Chief Procurement Officer January 2012 Aluminum Rolling Outlook

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Page 1: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

Platts Aluminum Symposium

Presented by

Nick Madden

Senior Vice President and Chief Procurement Officer

January 2012

Aluminum Rolling Outlook

Page 2: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

2 2

Novelis is a Global Industry Leader

The world’s largest

producer of rolled

aluminum products

The world’s leading

recycler of used aluminum

beverage cans

The world’s largest

buyer of aluminum

Page 3: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

3 3

Changing Industry Structure

► Downstream decoupling from

metal supply

► Structural global demand growth

6%+

► Customers going global

► FRP almost fully de-integrated

► Third party slab market developing

► Slab casting capacity needs to

grow

Page 4: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

4 4

Changing Industry Structure

► For Novelis...

► Focused business - portfolio of

premium products

► Maturing pass-through business

model

► Sustainability commitment

► Greater flexibility in metal strategy

/ increased recycling

Page 5: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

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► Growth 2010–2015 driven by global megatrends

► “Business as Usual” standard growth 2015 – 2020

► Adds 11 Million tonnes to global demand 2010 - 2020

Global rolled products demand is growing

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FRP Demand

% CAGR

Future Past

Source: CRU, Novelis

Page 6: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

6 6

Specialties Beverage Can Automotive

Source: Novelis and CRU Estimates

Long Term Global Trends in Aluminum Demand

Long-term

annual growth

rate

(CY10-15)

>25%

6% 4-5%

Strong Long Term Outlook

Page 7: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

7 7

2015: Asia ~ 50% of global aluminum rolled products market

Source: CRU March 2011

Size of FRP Market (kt in 2015)

Average Annual

Growth Rate (CAGR % 1995-2015)

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Middle East

& Africa

Latin

America

Europe

North

America

Asia Pacific

Page 8: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

8 8

Global Trends Point to Increasing Aluminum Demand

Material Preference

Increasing substitution

to aluminum from other

materials in emerging

markets

Sustainability

Growing awareness

of environmentalism

and demand for

recycled products

Economic Development

Increasing urbanization,

modernization of

infrastructure, and

global wealth

Page 9: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

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By 2020

► Will have major industry impact: suppliers, customers

► Reduces carbon intensity of our customers’ products

► Fundamental evolution of business model

We aim to have 80% of our products

produced made from recycled materials

Launched global Sustainability Commitment

As largest global purchaser, Novelis has a leadership role

Page 10: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

10 10

Primary Products – Excluding China

47%

18%

20%

15%

Primary Smelter Product Mix

Ingot Slab

Billet Foundry / Other

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Sheet Ingot Capacity (kt)

Asia Africa/ME

Russia South America

Europe North America

Page 11: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

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Novelis Investing in Supply Chain

Aluminum plant expansion to create

100 new jobs

Novelis Investing $400 Million to

Grow its Operations in Asia

Novelis Plans $15.8 million Italian

Expansion

Novelis Poised for Growth Amidst

Slow Economy

Page 12: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

12 12

► Total capacity increase of ~1 mio tonnes through FY16

(CY2015) to 4 mio tonnes

► Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling

capacity

Novelis Growth Roadmap

Automotive Capacity

Increase: ~200kt

Debottlenecking: ~60kt

Debottlenecking: ~90kt

Portfolio optimization

Multiple recycling projects

Asian Rolling Expansion:

~350kt to 1 mio tonnes

Debottlenecking: ~70kt

UBC Recycling

Pinda Expansion: ~220kt

Debottlenecking: ~30kt

UBC Recycling

Page 13: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

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► Positive medium term outlook in FRP is unchanged

► 2012 will be slower than previously expected

► Novelis will invest ~$1.5bn and increase FRP capacity

by 1 mio tonnes to meet requirements of our customers

► We will meet the growth with recycle based sheet ingot to:

► Secure economic supplies

► Meet our Sustainability goals.

Building a Lighter and Brighter Future

Page 14: Aluminum Rolling Outlook · 2018-01-10 · Requires proportionate increase in casting / recycling capacity Novelis Growth Roadmap Automotive Capacity Increase: ~200kt Debottlenecking:

Thank You