alternatives analysis and characteristics of urban transport...
TRANSCRIPT
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WorldBank Workshop and Training on Urban Transport Planning
and Reform. Baku, April 14-16, 2009
Alternatives Analysis and Characteristics of Urban Transport Modes
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WorldBank 2
Why Alternatives Analysis (AA)?
At the conclusion of metropolitan long range strategic planning:
A corridor has been identified as a top priority for rapid transit
However, accurate information (e.g., costs, environmental impacts) is not available to select a precise mode and design concept
AA provides the better information needed to make a supportable decision
Detailed look at fewer reasonable alternatives
Focused geographically
Shorter (e.g., fifteen year) time horizon
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WorldBank 3
Metropolitan Strategy,
Priority Corridors,
Alternatives
Feasibility Study/Preliminary Design
Level of Engineering Definition, Analysis Detail
Nu
mb
er
of
Alt
ern
ati
ve
s
Highest
Lowest
Minimal 20%Design
Final Design
Alternatives Analysis(Project identification)
Number of Alternatives versus
Level of Detail
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WorldBank 4
What is an Alternatives Analysis?
A process for finding the most desirable alternative for geographic area that:
Solves transport and related problems
Is cost-effective
Is affordable
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WorldBank 5
Alternatives Analysis AnalogyMeeting a Family’s Transport Needs1. What are our transport needs?
2. How much money do we have to spend?
3. What are our options?
Continue to use public transport
Buy a vehicle
4. How do the private vehicle options compare in terms of
our needs and tastes?
Size?
Features?
Comfort?
Repair record?
Costs?
Aesthetics?
5. Opinion of spouse, spouse’s brother?
6. Decision
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WorldBank 6
???
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WorldBank 7
What Alternatives Analysis is Not!
A feasibility study where:
A single, pre-determined solution is assessed
Physical and operational ability to implement
Absolute economic return
Other, potentially more cost-effective and desirable options are ignored
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WorldBank 8
???
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WorldBank 9
Feasibility Study AnalogyMeeting a Family’s Transport Needs
1. I want (need?) a car
2. Is it feasible for me to buy a Mercedes Benz?
Do I have the money or can I borrow it?
Yes: Go buy it
No: Don’t buy anything, continue to take public transport
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WorldBank 10
Identify InvestmentAlternatives
AlternativesAnalysis
Establish Goals and Objectives;Transportation, Quality of Life
Evaluate Current Problems,Future Challenges
Evaluate Alternatives
Decision on Mode and General Alignment
Go!
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WorldBank 11
1. Make sure that everyone understands process
from start
2. Understand the problems needing solution
3. Establish goals, objectives and evaluation criteria
4. Identify and collect the information needed for
proper analysis and decision-making
5. Consider the right alternatives
6. Develop complete, objective and reliable
information
7. “Make the case” for the selected alternative
Alternatives Analysis Guidelines
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WorldBank 12
Alternatives Analysis, not feasibility study
Clarify “big decision” to be made at conclusion of Alternatives Analysis
Type of transport investment
e.g., metro, Bus Rapid Transit, Light Rail Transit, roadway
General alignment
Related management and operations strategies
1 Make Sure That Everyone Understands Process From Start
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WorldBank 13
Analyze current and expected future “no project” conditions
Key information needs
Identify underlying causes, not just symptoms
e.g., congestion and air pollution are symptoms, not causes
Make sure everyone, decision makers and the public understand the issues
2Understand the Problems Needing Solution
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WorldBank 14
Symptom: Traffic Congestion
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WorldBank 15
Poor land use, site planning
Widely scattered, single-purpose developments
Site planning not pedestrian or public transport “friendly”
Site planning forces auto dependency
Land Use Possible Cause of Congestion
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WorldBank 16
10,000 Meter View
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WorldBank 17
View on the Ground: Pune, India
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WorldBank 18
Demand Side ChangesPossible Cause of Congestion
Explosive population, income and motorization growth
Changing demographics
Declining household sizes (grown children moving to own residences)
Younger/older population
Changing origin-to-destination patterns
Less core-focused
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WorldBank 19
Changing Public Transport Demand Patterns
Accra, Ghana
2004
2013
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WorldBank 20
Supply Side ChangesPossible Cause of Congestion
Public transport system On-street, poorly regulated competition
Route structure not consistent with travel needs
Insufficient capacity in major corridors
Non-Motorized Transport Declining space dedicated
Right-of-Way (ROW) encroachment
Roads Poor condition / Lack of connectivity
Ineffective parking / traffic management
Poor enforcement of traffic rules
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WorldBank 21
Inefficient Traffic, Public Transport Operations
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WorldBank 22
Incomplete Arterial Grid
Bangkok
Manila
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WorldBank 23
Poor/No Secondary
Street Network
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WorldBank 24
Right-of-Way (ROW) Encroachment
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WorldBank 25
Inefficient, Ineffective General Traffic Management
Xian
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WorldBank 26
I-26
WRI
Local Emissions
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WorldBank 27
Poor Pedestrian Environment
Bangalore
Panjin
ECA ECA
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WorldBank 28
Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety
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WorldBank 29
Motor Vehicle Safety
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WorldBank 30
I-30
Public Transport Safety
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WorldBank 31
Sustaining the Existing System
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WorldBank 32
Establish Goals, Objectivesand Evaluation Criteria
Cost-effectiveness
Affordability
Related non-transport issues
3
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WorldBank 33
Cost-Effectiveness Criteria
Combines
Total equivalent annual costs (capital, operating, maintenance)
Effectiveness measure or measures
e.g., travel time savings, public transport trips, person km of travel
Calculated as changes from “no project” or base case
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WorldBank 34
Typical Cost-Effectiveness Criteria
Cost per person Km of travel
Cost per Public Transport Trip
Benefit/Cost ratio
Net present value
Implicit cost of travel time savings (used by U.S. Department of Transportation for major Public Transport projects)
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WorldBank 35
Affordability as a Criterion
Should not be limited to initial capital cost of alternatives
Should also include
Ongoing operation/maintenance
Costs associated with rest of transport system
Especially “background” local bus system needed for alternative to produce benefits
Recapitalization
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WorldBank 36
Non-Transport Criteria
Environmental, local and global
Social
Land and economic development effects
Health, safety
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WorldBank 37
Simplicity is a Virtue!
Decision makers and citizens must understand the criteria
Criteria must be “scalable,” capable of being related to something from every-day life
e.g.,
cost/Public Transport trip compared to cost of a car or taxi trip,
cost per hour of travel time savings compared to wage rates
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WorldBank 38
Identify and Collect Needed Information
Current and future conditions
Analytical forecasting tools
4
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WorldBank 39
Current and Future Conditions
Data describing current situation
Population
Land use
Demand
System supply & performance
e.g., travel times, capacity utilization
Finance
e.g., profitability, available funding
Forecast data on future growth
Population
Land use
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WorldBank 40
Data to Support Tool Development and Application Forecasts needed for evaluation criteria
Analytical tools needed to show differences
among the alternatives in key criteria such as:
Travel demand
Network performance analysis
e.g., capacity utilization, travel times, transfers
Environmental impact assessment
e.g., local/global air, noise emissions
Costs
e.g., implementation, operating, maintenance,
recapitalization
Financial resources
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WorldBank 41
Consider the Right Alternatives
Recognize that there is more than: One rapid transit mode
Not just metros/Light Rail Transit
One type of road capacity addition
Not just expressways, freeways, flyovers
Keep in mind that system integration is critical Rapid transit/local bus
Expressway/arterial street
Consider integrated public transport
priority/traffic management as an alternative Comprehensive package of “low-cost” improvements
5
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WorldBank 42
Mexico City Metro,Expressway
Brisbane BRT
Leeds UK
Beijing BRT,Expressway
Barcelona LRT,Arterial
Packaged Roadway / Public Transport
Investments
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WorldBank 43
Guidelines for Developing Good Alternatives
Make each alternative competitive
Develop each alternative based on an analysis of the current market for travel
Refine each alternative so it is operationally “feasible” and reasonable, physically, financially
Establish constant policy setting, but identify policy options (e.g., tolls, traffic management, fares) to be tested
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WorldBank 44
Beijing
Is More Highway Capacity Needed?
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WorldBank 45
Is Metro Enough?
BangkokManila
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WorldBank 46
Rapid Transit Alternatives
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Light Rail Transit (LRT)
Metro
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WorldBank 47
Common Rapid Transit Features
Objective: High Capacity, performance, and quality
Physical Characteristics
Dedicated running ways, best fully grade-separated
Distinct stations with shelter, security, amenities
High capacity, easy boarding/alighting vehicles with good internal circulation
Supportive Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) applications
Unique branding
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WorldBank 48
Common Rapid Transit Features
Service, Operational Characteristics
All day, high frequency service
Medium stop spacing minimum (0.5-2 km)
Simple route structure
Off-board fare collection
Tight dispatching, supervision
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WorldBank 49
LRTElements
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WorldBank 50
Light Rail Transit (LRT)
Vehicles
Steel wheeled, high capacity vehicles up to 40 meters long
Norm is electric but can be Internal Combustion (IC) propulsion
Can be trained up to limits dictated by block lengths in at-grade sections
Stations
Platforms can be low or high, depending on passenger volumes and design constraints
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WorldBank 51
LRT Characteristics Revenue speeds Key Factors: Station spacing and operating
environment Range: 20-50 km/h
Maximum capacity Key Factors: Level of grade separation/
dedication and operating environment Range
11,000 Passengers/hour Tramways 30,000 Passengers/hour Fully grade separated
Total implementation costs for a line Key Factors: Design and local cost
environment Range: US$15M – $60M/km
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WorldBank 52
Metro Elements
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WorldBank 53
Metro
Highest capacity, highest performance rapid transit system
Key is fully grade-separated, dedicated running way and stations, no grade crossings
Can be elevated, in subway, or surface
Can be automated or manually driven, with “fail-safe” signal system
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WorldBank 54
Metro
Vehicles
Up to 23 meters long
Electric propulsion system, “third rail” or overhead
contact system
Stations
Spacing longest of Rail Transport modes >0.75 km
Usually high platform stations
Service
Frequencies up to 40 trains per hour
Service plans with more than one service on a running
way or stopping at a station rare in modern systems
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WorldBank 55
Metro Characteristics
Revenue speeds
Key Factor: Station spacing
Range: 30-60 km/hour
Maximum capacity
Key Factors: Passing at stations and operating environment
Range: Up to 75,000 Passengers / hour
Total implementation costs for a line
Key Factors: Design and local cost environment
US$40M – US$200M/km
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Transit System Mode Comparison
Source: Montassar DRAIEF - SYSTRA
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Operating Costs including Depreciation (US$/seat-km)
Source: Montassar DRAIEF - SYSTRA
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Develop Complete, Objective and Reliable Information
Be transparent
Fully disclose an honest, objective assessment of benefits, costs, impacts and risks
Address risks
Sensitivity analyses (what happens if everything goes wrong)
Independent “reasonability” assessment of costs and benefits can build credibility
6
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Forecasting Cautions
Ridership forecasts
Avoid compound optimism
e.g., Population, employment forecasts, walking distances, transfer penalties, speeds, capacities, fares and other user fees
All cost forecasts
Apply different contingency factors to costs by project component, type of construction, and level of engineering
Conceptual planning factors higher than preliminary engineering ones
Tunneling factors much higher than for surface construction
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“Make the Case” for the Selected Alternative
Tell a clear, coherent and concise story:
Problem(s) addressed
Relative effectiveness and costs of each alternative in addressing the problem(s)
Why the selected alternative is best
7
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Metropolitan Strategy,
Priority Corridors,
Alternatives
Feasibility Study/Preliminary Design
Level of Engineering Definition, Analysis Detail
Nu
mb
er
of
Alt
ern
ati
ve
s
Highest
Lowest
Minimal 20%Design
Final Design
Alternatives Analysis(Project identification)
Number of Alternatives versus
Level of Detail
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Summary
Alternatives Analysis is not a feasibility study
Outlined the Alternatives Analysis process
Discussed guidelines for effective Alternatives Analysis
Described key characteristics of rapid transit modes