also danube – impacts on a macro-economic level
DESCRIPTION
ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level. Demonstration Event Linz, May 27 th , 2003. Reinhold Deussner - OIR. Introduction. Development of IT-solutions. Development of IT-solutions. Development of IT-solutions. Test of solutions within Demonstrators. Test of solutions - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Demonstration Event Linz, May 27th, 2003
Reinhold Deussner - OIR
ALSO Danube – Impacts on a
macro-economic level
© ÖIR p. 3
Objective of macro-economic evaluation
To assess the impacts of Advanced Logistic SOlutions
+ on the transport system
+ on the economy
+ on labour
+ and on the ecology
Development of IT-solutions
Test of solutions within Demonstrators
Micro-economic evaluation
Macro-economic evaluation
Development of IT-solutionsDevelopment of IT-solutions
Test of solutions within Demonstrators
Test of solutions within Demonstrators
Micro-economic evaluationMicro-economic evaluation
Macro-economic evaluationMacro-economic evaluation
Development of IT-solutions
Introduction
© ÖIR p. 6
Content
Impacts on Transport Demand and Infrastructure
focussing on a transport prognosis
Impacts on Society, and Environment
Impacts on Workforce and Training requirements
Impacts on Regional Economy and Labour market
Multi-criteria analyses
Recommendations
Macro-economic evaluation
© ÖIR p. 7
Elements of ALSO Prognosis
Trade and Transport Prognosis
Socio-Economic FrameworkSocio-Economic Framework
Micro-economic evaluationMicro-economic evaluation
Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions
Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions
Transport Demand Year 2000
Transport Demand Year 2000
Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000
Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000
Trade Prognosis
Trade Prognosis
Transport Prognosis
Transport Prognosis
ALSO DanubeScenarios
ALSO DanubeScenarios
Transport InfrastructureTransport Infrastructure
Transport MarketTransport Market
© ÖIR p. 8
Regional coverage
• Europe
• Danube Region
• Danube Corridor
Transport Prognosis
© ÖIR p. 10
Trade Prognosis
Trade Growth: Eastern Europe catches up
• The European integration makes trade growth stronger than GDP (2 - 4% p.a.)
• Growth in West and Central Europa relations continues
• High growth with East Europe and Black Sea Region
Danube Region: Growth of Exports, 2000 - 2015[tons in % p.a.]
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
West Europe(NL, B, F, D,
A)
Central East (CZ, SK, H,
CRO)
East Europe(YU, RO,
BG)
Black Sea and Over-
seas
DanubeRegion
© ÖIR p. 11
Trade Prognosis
Growth of Trade in Danube Region: All Modes, by Commodity Groups [tons in % p.a.]
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2000-15
C Low valued
B Medium
A High valued
Change of commodity structure
• High value A and B commodities leading
• Low value C commodities (coal, ores) with a modest development
© ÖIR p. 12
Commodities
Commodities:
A High Valued
B Medium
C Low Valued
Commodities:
NST/R Group
0 Agricultural products and life animals B
1 Foodstuff and animal fodder A
2 Solid mineral fuels C
3 Petroleum products C
4 Ores and metal waste C
5 Metal products B
6 Crude and manufactured minerals, building materials B
7 Fertilizers C
8 Chemicals A
9 Machinery, transport equipment, manufactured articles and miscellaneous articles
A
© ÖIR p. 16
Transport markets
Transport Volume on River Danube Waterway (year 2000)
© ÖIR p. 17
Transport Prognosis: Results
Transport volume by modes
Export, Import, Transit - Bavaria and Austria
Reference Scenario: Transport Volume in Danube Corridor [million tons]
30
55
23
33
1520
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Road 2000 Road 2015 Rail 2000 Rail 2015 Inland nav.2000
Inland nav.2015
© ÖIR p. 18
Transport Prognosis: Results
Growth rates
+ Road transport ahead: consequences of liberalised transport markets and
shortcomings (infrastructure, funding, transport policies)
+ modest Growth of Danube Waterway Transports without ALSO solutions
Reference Scenario: Growth rates in Danube Corridor[2000 - 2015]
61%
33%
47%
86%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Road Rail Inland navigation All Modes
© ÖIR p. 20
ALSO Economic Impacts
Target Groups
BMVIT other Ministries
other
s RIS Industry (EU-Countries and Pre-accession Countries) Priv.
CSL_DB Services / possible
interested parties
1 = no importance
2 = important in future
3 = important
4 = very important
no avilable information / not
appropriate
Tra
ffic
man
agem
ent/
Tec
hnol
ogy
(Riv
er P
olic
e) a
nd W
ater
wa
y
Aut
hor
ityM
inis
trie
s of
Fin
ance
and
Min
istr
ies
of
Eco
nom
ics
Min
istr
ies
of th
e In
terio
r (o
ther
Org
anis
atio
ns li
ke E
UR
OP
OL)
Min
istr
ies
of A
gric
ultu
re, F
ores
try
and
En
viro
nmen
t
Nat
iona
l Def
ense
Act
ion
For
ces
alon
g th
e D
anub
e (R
escu
e
Ope
ratio
ns)
RIS
on
Eur
opea
n L
eve
l
natio
nal R
IS
EU
-Tra
ffic
Pol
icy
/ R&
D
Har
bour
s
Po
wer
Aut
hori
ties
alo
ng t
he D
anub
e
Boa
tmas
ters
*
Shi
ppin
g C
ompa
nies
*
Load
ing
Indu
stry
Sup
ply
Indu
stry
rel
evan
t for
Inla
nd
Nav
ivat
ion
For
war
ding
Age
ntD
anu
be S
ervi
ce P
rovi
der
(e.
g.
Con
stru
ctio
n C
ompa
nies
)
Che
mic
al In
dus
try
Tel
emat
ics
Indu
stry
Oth
er p
rod
ucin
g In
dust
ry (
Aut
omob
ile
Indu
stry
, T
extil
es,
...)
VA
S P
rovi
der
(e.g
. Lo
gis
tics
Pla
tfor
m)
Pri
vate
Use
rs
Services/Products/Tasks
A. Operation of test-center infrastructure
Test-center infrastructure
Transpondermanagement 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 2 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 1 4 2 3
Maintenance of system-components of test-
center 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 1
Technical operation of test-center 1 1 2 3 2 4 1 1 3 2 2 4 1
Commercial operation of test-center 1 2 3 2 4 2 2 3 1 2 3 1
Investment control (substitution/expansion) 1 3 3 2 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 2 1
B. Product development
I. Primarily assistance of public authorities
Assistance of administration of public
authorities
Persons identification (Provision of tactical
traffic imaging) 3 4 1 3 3 3 4 4 2 2 1 2
Goods control (Provision of tactical traffic
imaging) 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 3 4 3 3 3
Border protection of 'blue border' 3 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 4 3 1 2
Traceability of offences in shipping by
monitoring 4 3 4 4 1 3 3 4 3 2 4 2
Declaration and information provision for
dangerous goods 4 3 3 4 1 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 4 3 4 3
CSL.DB: Services for Target Groups
CSL.DB: Economic Benefits
Location Economic Impact Time Relia-bility
Cost Risk
Low waterstretches
Increase in admissible draught,improvement of capacity utilisation,reduction of accidents
+ ++ +++ ++
Borders reduction of waiting times (short andmedium term)
+ + +
Locks smoother traffic mode, energy saving(increasing with traffic volume)
+ + +
Ports reduction of waiting times (stevedoring,pre- and end-haul), improvement ofcapacity utilisation
+++ + +++
Shipow-ners,Industry
improvement of information processes(accounting, traffic management,logistic chain management)
++ ++ ++
© ÖIR p. 21
Transport Prognosis: Results
ALSO Scenario 2: Transport Volume in Danube Corridor[million tons]
30
51
23
31
15
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Road 2000 Road 2015 Rail 2000 Rail 2015 Inland nav.2000
Inland nav.2015
ALSO solutions: The Danube gains additional 6 million tons
© ÖIR p. 22
Transport prognosis: impacts
Reduction of Road Transport after realisation of Inland Waterway Solutions (A8 Innkreis Motorway, trucks/24 hours)
5.700
10.0009.300 9.100
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
Year 2000 Year 2015(ReferencePrognosis)
ALSO Scenario 1 ALSO Scenario 2
Congested Roads in Corridor:
ALSO saves infrastructure upgrading
reduces emissions, improves safety
© ÖIR p. 26
Impacts on Society and Environment
• Calamity abatement on waterway reduces accidents and follow-up consequences
• Hazardous Goods monitoring
• Energy saving by more regular driving modus
• Modal Shift from road to inland navigation reduces global and local emissions
• NOx reduction (-3 to -4% in Corridor)
• noise reduction - most important in densely populated urban areas
• global effects (CO2 reduction)
Direct impacts
Indirect impacts
© ÖIR p. 27
Impact on Workforce
Crew on board: in the framework of a growing workload, ALSO provides assistance and relief to human operator, secures proper reaction to emergency situations
Additional labour force
Creation of additional labour in follow-up services: ports handling, stevedoring, national control centres, system suppliers
Crew on board: minimum number regulated
Education and training needs
Crew: Cargo and transport management, voyage planning, navigation and calamity abatement
Improved working conditions
© ÖIR p. 29
Regional Economic Impacts
Modest due to low overall size of investment
RIS along Upper Danube: 11 million EUR (administration)
private operators: 10 million EUR
Indirect Effects
Indirect effects are considerable: ALSO improves
the competitiveness of inland navigation versus road transport
the competitiveness of industry - thus safeguarding industrial locations (steel)
reduction of external cost
Direct Effects
© ÖIR p. 30
Cost-benefit analysis
0 1 2Macroeconomic Level (local) increase in added value 2,55 2,55 2,55
Time 5,10 5,16 5,16Transport Costs 10,21 10,52 10,52Logistics Cost 7,66 8,04 8,19accessibility/location 5,10 5,95 5,95service quality 5,10 6,37 7,65transport safety 5,10 5,10 5,10
indirect effects multiplier effects 3,06 3,83 4,59modal shift 7,15 7,50 7,65
Social Level number of accidents 5,27 5,28 5,29Cost of Accidents 5,27 5,29 5,29number of additional jobs 5,27 5,27 5,27
improvement of qualification=number of additional skills 5,27 6,32 6,85
Environmental reduction of emissions and noise emissions of pollutants - global 8,32 8,32 8,32emissions of pollutants - local 8,32 9,99 11,65emissions of noise 5,55 6,93 8,32environmental risk 5,55 6,24 6,24
Total 100,00 108,67 114,59
effects on employment
Alternatives
tangible direct effects
intangible direct effects
reduction of accident costs
Target Group Target Indicators
© ÖIR p. 31
Conclusions
Conclusions (1) ALSO solutions are in accordance with European Strategic
Goals – the development oft the transport system towards an efficient, environmentally friendly and safe transport.
The Implementation of ALSO solutions on the 7800 km European waterway network will
improve the competitiveness of inland navigation
increase the share of intermodal transport
enable a shift of transport from road to inland navigation
thus make a better use of existing infrastructure
thus reduce emissions and noise in congested areas
© ÖIR p. 32
Conclusions
Conclusions (2)
ALSO solutions
increase the safety on inland waterways and on roads
enable inland navigation to cope better with adverse fairway conditions
improve working conditions and education levels
strengthen the position of industry
contribute to the integration of Europe by connecting the emerging markets with the European core regions
thus enable the Danube Region to cope with the challenges of the future
© ÖIR p. 33
Recommendations
Recommendations (1)
Administration
to use information technology to simplify and improve administrative processes (customs and persons control, statistics, information on hazardous goods)
to realise in accordance with the Rotterdam Declaration RIS along River Danube
to support the Danube countries in the impelemation
to create harmonised regulations on the implementation within the EU, CCNR and DC
to secure funding of supporting technology programmes
to create synergy effects between information technology and the upgrading of the waterways
© ÖIR p. 34
Recommendations
Recommendations (2)
Private Operators
to realise business solutions for new services in inland navigation
to use information technology to improve traffic management and to strengthen logistic processes
to use the chances for intermodal transport
to use the advantages of the waterway and locate industrial plants at ports
Ports
to optimise intermodal information exchange at ports
to use the IT solutions to develop into intermodal logistics centres
to improve the interfaces to the railways
Österreichisches Institut für Raumplanung
Franz-Josefs-Kai 27 A-1010 Wien
tel +43 1 5338747-0 fax +43 1 5338747-66
www.oir.at
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