almond presentation january 2013 presented by - bill morecraft general manager
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Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division. Almond Overview. Growth Drivers and Historical Context Current Year Overview Looking Ahead. The Global Middle Class. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Almond PresentationJanuary 2013
Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division
Almond Overview Growth Drivers and Historical Context Current Year Overview Looking Ahead
The Global Middle Class
The Global Middle Class is Evolving
The middle class is not easily defined “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP)
Developing Economies = US $10,000 Established Economies = US $45,000 - $75,000
We have seen very diverse results in middle class growth when looking at developing economies versus economies with an established middle class
Two trends haven driven almond industry growth in recent years Growing Middle Class Growth in Healthy Eating Habits
Source: Euromonitor, “The Global Middle Class Sees Mixed Fortunes, October - 2012
China India0
50
100
150
200
250
120.489.8
239
146
Rapidly Growing Middle Class in World’s Two Largest Countries
Number of Households (millions)
99% Growt
h63% Growt
h
2011 201120062006
Almond Shipments to China Have Grown Nearly 1000%
Milli
ons
Poun
ds
Series10
50
100
150
200
250
21.8
236.2 2001-20022011-2012
Almond Shipments to India Have Grown 145%
Milli
ons
Poun
ds
Series10
20
40
60
80
100
120
46.8
119.0 2001-20022011-2012
2006 v 2011
Percent of Households With PPP of US $45,000 to US $75,000
USA Germany Japan0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
21.1%
26.9%
31.0%
20.4%
29.8%
30.4%
2006 v 2011
2006 v 2011
Evolving Eating Habits
Busier Lifestyles•Shorter lunch breaks / working during lunch•Longer working hours•Longer commutes
Working Women•More women in workforce
and less time cooking•Demand for convenience•Healthy solutions
Snacking Fills the Mealtime Gaps
•Convenience / portability•Ability to eat on-the-go•Increase in healthy offerings, e.g. 100 calorie pack
Healthy Lifestyles•Desire to combine health & convenience• Lower sodium, less fat,
natural ingredients, functional ingredients
• Helps fuel demand for Western products in emerging marketsSource: Euromonitor, “Home Cooking & Eating Habits, A Global
Analysis. April - 2012
Almond Industry Shipments5-year History
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1,261,159 1,389,344 1,471,461
1,667,571
1,898,621
Milli
ons /
lbs.
18%10%
6%13%
14%
78% Growth
Between 2007-12
Export Demand Comparisons
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
USAEuropeAsiaMiddle East
Milli
ons /
lbs.
Asia Growth 2007-2012154%
Source: Almond Board of California Position Reports. Asia does not include Australia or New Zealand. Middle East does not include Africa. Europe is inclusive of Western & Eastern Europe.
Demand Share Comparisons
Eu-rope; 37%
Asia; 16%
Mid-dle
East; 7%
Do-mes-tic; 31%
Other; 9%
2007-2008
Europe; 28%
Asia; 27%
Middle East; 5%
Domestic; 29%
Other; 11%
2011-2012
Current Crop Year Overview
YTD December- Total Industry Shipments -.9%
YTD China +10%
YTD December 2012/13 YTD December
2011/12
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
North AmericaChina
155.8mm
255.2m
141.5m
North Americ
a +5%
267.7mm
2012 California Almond Crop
Poun
ds
/ Bi
llions
July Objective Est. Sept. Harvest Latest Estimate
-
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
1.80
2.10
2.10
1.90 1.85
Series1
Short Term Outlook
CY2007 /08 CY2008 /09 CY2009 /10 CY2010 /11 CY2011/12 FCY2012/13
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
18%
10%
6%
13%
14%
0.0438161075356338
Growth in Shipments vs. 2012 Supply Increase
Yield Trend
Trended Crop Projections
Key Factors for Future Global demand can continue to grow,
driven by: Middle class growth in emerging economies Changing eating habits in mature
economies Global almond production will grow
slower in next 2-3 years, than in past decade
Almond pricing will reflect supply tightness for the near future
Questions?