allianz global corporate & specialty se autonomous shipping · operated ship (control center...

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8-Nov-19 1

Impact of digitalization on the Global Shipping Industry

ARC Marine/ Anastasios Leonburg Munich/ Oct-2019

Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty SE

AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING

© Copyright Allianz

01IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION ON THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY Linear vs Exponential 05 MAIN CHALLENGES

Hurdles to be taken

02 TECHNOLOGICAL MILESTONES Project – SVAN 06

FUTURE PERSPECTIVES Timeline – What we most likely will see in the nearest future?

03 AUTONOMOUS SHIP Definition – Regulatory Framework 07 Q & A SESSION

04 KEY BENEFITS What is to be achieved?

CONTENT TOPICS

29-OctAutonomous Shipping / ARC Marine/ Anastasios Leonburg

2


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01THE IMPACT OF DIGITALIZATION ON THE MARINE INDUSTRY

• Linear vs. Exponential• Breakthrough Technologies

Source: DCNS showcases unique digital and high technology naval solutions at Euronaval Exhibition in Paris-Le Bourget 2018


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“ Moore's Law

states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years, though the cost of computers is halved.”

LINEAR VS. EXPONENTIAL Allianz Risk Consulting

Gordon Moore

“ Effectively computing power doubles approx. every 18 months and the price of that technology halves. ”

Photo: Gordon Brown Flickr.com Gordon Moore


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“ Computing power doubles approx. every 18 months and the price of that technology halves ”

Allianz Risk Consulting

LINEAR VS. EXPONENTIAL

Ray Kurzweil

“ Once a technology or industry becomes information-enabled and powered by information flows, its price/performance begins doubling approximately annually.”

“Performance of an information enabled industry begins to double approx. every year by implementing exponentially moving technologies.”


Photo: Ray Kurzweil, Flickr.com.


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“ Computing power doubles approx. every

18 months and the price of that technology

halves ”

LINEAR VS. EXPONENTIAL Allianz Risk Consulting

AR

“Disruptive Innovation fuelled

by fast-moving exponential

technologies.”

Ray Kurzweil

Computing power doubles+ price of technology

halves + industry becomes information-

enabled

=


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BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES Allianz Risk Consulting

“ Breakthrough technologies which have found their way into the modern shipping industry.”

Autonomy

ARConnectivity

LIDAR

Infrared


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• Project SVAN – Safer Vessel with Autonomous Navigation

02TECHNOLOGICAL MILESTONES

Photo: © 2018 Rolls-Royce plc


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REMOTE & AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGIES • RR “Intelligent Awareness” sensors• RR Autonomous Navigation (In Plug

& Play container) • RR Remote Control Station• Interchangeable layers of insight

presented on curved video wall in front of the Captain

• Combination of 4G cellular, Wi-Fi and satellite technologies for high resolution and connectivity

SVAN – SAFER VESSEL WITH AUTONOMOUS NAVIGATION Allianz Risk Consulting



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• Definition • Regulatory Framework

03AUTONOMOUS SHIPPING

Photo: Rolls Royce Ship intelligence, flickr.com, Sensor technology will enhance risk management.


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DEFINITION - AUTONOMOUS SHIPAllianz Risk Consulting

• “There is currently no international definition of what an autonomous ship is,

• what the various levels of autonomy are and

• whether an autonomous ship is a ship under international law”


Photo: © 2018 Rolls-Royce


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IMO’S REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Allianz Risk Consulting

International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Comité Maritime International (CMI) are already exploring how autonomous vessels would fit into the existing framework of international maritime law.

• In 2017 the use of “Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships” (MASS) was put on IMO’s agenda (MSC 98 – 101/ June 2017 – June 2019).

• IMO’s Maritime Safety Committee (MSC), agreed to work on a "Regulatory scoping exercise for the use of (MASS)", with a target completion year of 2020 (MSC 102 Final consideration).

• MSC has been looking into how safe, secure and environmentally sound MASS operations may be addressed and how IMO rules and regulations may need to be adapted.

• For the purpose of the regulatory exercise the term “Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship” (MASS) and degrees of autonomy were preliminarily defined.Photo: IMO Headquarters, Flickr.com.


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27 CODE & CONVENTIONS TO BE REVIEWED Allianz Risk Consulting

COLREGs 1972 MARPOLCSC 1972 FAL 1972LL 1966 SUA 2005LL PROT 1988 SALVAGE 1989SAR 1977 OPCR 1990SOLAS 1974 CLC 1969SOLAS AGR 1996 NUCLEAR 1971SOLAS PROT 1978 HNS 1996STCW-F 1995 etc. ….STP 1971SPACE STP 1973


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PRELIMINARY DEFINITION OF MASS Allianz Risk Consulting

MASS is defined as “a shipwhich, to a varying degree, can operate independent of human interaction”

Photo: Yara, Yara Birkeland.


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DEGREES OF AUTONOMY Allianz Risk Consulting

• Seafarers on board operating and controlling shipboard systems

• Some operations may be automated

• Seafarers on board ready to take control

Degree One (D1)

• Remotely controlled ship (Control Center ashore)

• Seafarers on board• Seafarers are available

on board to take control and to operate the shipboard systems and functions.

• Remotely controlled and operated ship (Control Center ashore)

• No seafarers on board

Degree Two (D2) Degree Three (D3)

• Fully autonomous ship.• The operating system of

the ship is able to make decisions and determine actions by itself.

• No seafarers on board

Degree Four (D4)


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04KEY BENEFITS

• Reducing Operational Costs• Fuel Savings• Elimination of Human Errors

Photo: © Rolls-Royce, Intelligent Awareness System.


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Reducing the crew can significantly reduce the total operational costs of a vessel. Crew facilities on board can be reduced to a minimum. More space for cargo

carriage means increased profitability for the shipping company.

REDUCTION OF OPERATIONAL COSTS


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New ships design will lead to fuel Savings, for instance fuel savings by removing the deckhouse and systems serving the crew; less weight.

Ships will have a more aerodynamic profile.

FUEL SAVINGS

Photo: Yara, Yara Birkeland..


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Most marine accidents are caused by human errors (75 – 95 % ) major parts of this errors are caused by fatigue.

ELIMINATION OF HUMAN ERROR

Photograph: Laura Lezza/Getty Images


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• Legal Issues• Insurance• Testing • Cyber Security• Loss of communication

05MAIN CHALLENGES


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MAIN CHALLENGES – LEGAL ISSUES Allianz Risk Consulting

The international legal regime is decades out of date; a regulatory framework has to be found; existing rules and regulations require amendment or expansion.

Digitale Justitia: Forcierte Umstellung auf elektronischen Rechtsverkehr (BIld: iSTOCK)


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MAIN CHALLENGES – INSURANCE Allianz Risk Consulting

Affordable insurance cover would need to be developed by modifying existing covers (Hull & Machinery and Maritime liability).

Source: General Insurance, Moneycontrol.com.


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MAIN CHALLENGES – TESTING Allianz Risk Consulting

In order to make technology reliable the technology will need extensive testing before being deployed.

Source: Panya.com, Was ist User Acceptance Testing.


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MAIN CHALLENGES – CYBER SECURITY Allianz Risk Consulting

Reliable solutions must be found to protect autonomous ships from cyberattacks.

Arey you unwittingly letting hackers steal your data?Photo: AlamySource: Data Breach, Weerepat1003/Fotolia.


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MAIN OBSTACLES – LOSS OF COMMUNICATION Allianz Risk Consulting

Failure in communication between vessel and base can render the autonomous ship a ghost ship, helplessly drifting without a soul on board, a hazard to its owners, the owners of its cargo and the environment.

Source: Connectivity Solutions - PRONAUTAS


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• Time Line• What we most likely will see in the

nearest future?

06FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

Source: Toyota Al Ventures.


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TIME LINE Allianz Risk Consulting

Source: Rolls Royce Marine.


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FUTURE PERSPECTIVESAllianz Risk Consulting

WHAT TYPE OF SHIPS WILL GO CREWLESS?

• Smaller ships that operate in confined areas with a simple and specific route, e.g. FinFerries “Falco” which operates in a Fjord between two ports. Initially these vessels will operate for legal and technical issues within a single country.

• Coastal vessels and river barges. Crew costs on river barges are 1/3 of the operational costs and in the short sea shipping segment the crew costs are between 10 - 20%. Clear economic driver.

• Smaller containership (Yara Birkeland 2020), general cargo vessels or bulkers. The total transport cost saving can be 10 – 20% by switching to unmanned operation, so there is a clear economic driver for R&D ships.

• On board ULCV > 15,500 TEU trans-Atlantic container ships we are only likely to see the lower levels of autonomy to aid the crew in navigation “Intelligence awareness systems”. There is no driver of efficiency behind such move, economic saving is quite marginal, crewing costs represents only a few percent of the total cost structure for a ULCV and potential fuel savings by removing deckhouse are small compared to the consumption.

• It is not likely in the oil and gas sector to remove crews from tankers and LNG carriers amid risks to safe operation.

Early adopters: Tugboats, workboats, research vessels ….


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FUTURE PERSPECTIVES Allianz Risk Consulting

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS ?

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