alberto alfonzo tugberk ‘tt’ tanrisevdir. this study examines what determines success in the...
TRANSCRIPT
Alberto Alberto AlfonzoAlfonzo
Tugberk ‘TT’Tugberk ‘TT’TanrisevdirTanrisevdir
This study examines what determines success in the
Africa Cup of Nations from a macroeconomic
perspective.
• Continental soccer tournament
in Africa
• First tournament in 1957
•Organized in every 2 years
•Winner goes to FIFA
Confederations Cup
METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY• Sources: WDI, Penn World Table, and CAF’s webpage
• We created different new variables to control for the results of the tournaments: Champion, Second Place, Third Place,
and Fourth Place
• We test our hypothesis trough a series of different methods: Regressions Mean Comparison tests, and Fixed-Effect tests.
• For another approach to the study of our hypotheses, we excluded Egypt in a fixed-effect test as it seems the Egypt is
an outlier to our theory.
v.s.v.s.
• Both in Asia
• Close Number of
Populations:
China: 1,351 billion*
India: 1,237 billion*
*Data are taken from The World Bank’s 2012 information.
CHINA: $6,188*
INDIA: $1,489*
Children Malnutrition
Health Care Sports Investment
and Facilities
Better Education
*Data are taken from The World Bank’s 2012 information.
• If China has the highest population on Earth, why doesn’t China take 1st place in every Olympics?
*Data are taken from The World Bank’s 2012 information.
• If GDP Per Capita has a positive effect on winning a medal, why aren’t Luxembourg, Norway, and Switzerland –the top three countries by GDP Per Capita* dominant forces in the
Olympics?
HOME ADVANTAGEHOME ADVANTAGE
POPULATIONPOPULATION
CHANCE OF CHANCE OF HAVING HAVING
SPORTSMENSPORTSMEN
Inadequate resources means that a country cannot use its human
power
GDP Per Capita is an indicator of sports investment
*Data are taken from ESPN’s 2008 information.
Alabama University Crimson Tide Football Team played 14 games in 2008 and these 14 games costed them
$3,580,868*
*Information is taken from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/ncaa/revenue/_/type/expenses
These data are taken from Tucker’s video on Euronews webpage and interpreted into a different graph format
Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists
host 0.383 0.384 0.464 0.456 (9.03)*** (6.45)*** (6.53)*** (6.29)*** rgdplinthousands 0.001 -0.002 -0.005 -0.006 (0.26) (0.56) (1.03) (1.16) populationinmillions 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 (0.37) (0.44) (1.54) (1.09) urbanpopulationinmillions -0.000 0.001 0.007 0.005 (0.07) (0.38) (2.01)** (1.52) _cons 0.024 0.086 0.130 0.136 (1.66)* (4.28)*** (5.43)*** (5.60)*** R2 0.14 0.08 0.09 0.08 N 505 505 505 505
Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists
host 0.366 0.355 0.443 0.436 (8.62)*** (6.05)*** (6.57)*** (6.28)*** rgdplinthousands 0.036 0.020 -0.003 -0.004 (2.54)** (0.99) (0.12) (0.19) populationinmillions -0.000 -0.000 -0.002 -0.002 (0.28) (0.17) (1.06) (0.78) urbanpopulationinmillions -0.000 -0.003 -0.001 -0.002 (0.15) (0.85) (0.19) (0.46) _cons -0.039 0.065 0.181 0.189 (1.16) (1.41) (3.38)*** (3.45)*** R2 0.15 0.08 0.10 0.09 N 505 505 505 505
Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists
host 0.356 0.362 0.415 0.407 (8.52)*** (5.91)*** (5.65)*** (5.40)*** rgdplinthousands -0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.007 (0.54) (1.05) (1.30) (1.41) populationinmillions -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 (1.17) (1.43) (2.25)** (1.75)* urbanpopulationinmillions 0.003 0.004 0.009 0.008 (1.59) (1.43) (2.71)*** (2.18)** _cons 0.027 0.087 0.129 0.135 (2.01)** (4.48)*** (5.53)*** (5.67)*** R2 0.14 0.07 0.08 0.07 N 480 480 480 480
Champion Finalists Third or Better Semifinalists
host 0.301 0.384 0.464 0.456 (6.87)*** (6.45)*** (6.53)*** (6.29)*** rgdplinthousands -0.001 -0.002 -0.005 -0.006 (0.36) (0.56) (1.03) (1.16) populationinmillions -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 (1.12) (0.44) (1.54) (1.09) urbanpopulationinmillions 0.003 0.001 0.007 0.005 (1.23) (0.38) (2.01)** (1.52) _cons 0.040 0.086 0.130 0.136 (2.69)*** (4.28)*** (5.43)*** (5.60)*** R2 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.08 N 505 505 505 505
• Home Advantage helps an African country win the Africa Cup of Nations
• Total Population does not improve the odds of winning the tournament, or reaching the semifinals
• Ambigious results with GDP Per Capita and Urban Population.