alberta tourism trends to 2020

8/8/2019 Alberta Tourism Trends to 2020

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/alberta-tourism-trends-to-2020 1/61

Alberta’s Tourism Vision 2020 Alberta’s Tourism Vision 2020

February 2004



Trends follow apredictable pattern



Travel Trends

• Important trend in North America andEurope during the last 10-15 years has been

a substantial growth in the demand for short

holidays, having an effect at the local andregional level.



Travel Trends

• Tourism is still mostly contained to developedcountries.

• North America to and from Europe accounts for

79% of all travelers and 78% of the tourismreceipts.

• Japan is also a major recipient and generator.

• Those countries that show economic growth willmost likely be the ones to generate and benefitfrom tourism.



Mega-trends

• Forces that affect almost everyone in theworld. Individually no one can control,

influence or manage a mega-trend. Mega-

trends can only be dealt with throughcollective action.

– Population and demographic shifts – Globalization

– Democratization



Population Growth

• The world’s population is expected to be nearly 8 billion by 2025

• Developed countries are not growing (actually

some are declining), but growth in developingcountries is making up for it = net world

population growth

• For developed countries this means that the cohort

of 60+ will outnumber the younger cohorts



Population Growth

• In countries with positive population growthrates, the population tends to be young and

uneducated and life expectancy is much

younger than developed countries

– Impact on future economic development,

education and health concerns, politicalinstability, and concerns about the future

potential of these countries



Population Growth

• With an aging population in developed countries,we will see a shift in travel patterns. This groupwill be: – Nearing retirement or taking early or semi-retirement

– They have the disposable income and time to travel

– Their needs and interests however are very different

– They will travel internationally for longer durations

– These trips will be to developing countries with theexception that trips to Canada and the US will alsoincrease



Population Growth

• With the increase in “generation gap”,multiple niche markets will exist with

different needs, interests, and motivations

– There will be an opportunity to market directly

to these niche markets via the Internet

– Product and Experiential differentiation will become increasingly important for jurisdictions



Population Growth in Alberta

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

1 9 8 8

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 8

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 8

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 8

2 0 2 0



Democratization

• The world has changed considerably over the past 50 years, power has shifted

globally. And in areas of the world where

political unrest remains, power willcontinue to shift over time

• Equality has altered cultures and nations – E.g. woman in the workplace (see family

section)



Values• Value systems have been changing especially in

developed countries

• As awareness of the world widens the tendencywill be for values and ideas to converge.

• North American and European values havealready been noted to be converging over the past15 years.

• Cultural experiences, learning and education, andvisual stimulation will all be a part of the overallexperiences that people will seek when travelling

both domestically and internationally.



Values

• For developing countries however, changingvalues may have a counter-effect of increased

rebellion against “western culture and values”

• These countries want to retain their own culture,history and diversity

• The impact of superpowers and increased

democratization globally could have impact on

further conflict and terrorist activity



Fire and Ice-Michael Adams

• Michael Adam’s new book Fire and Ice “revealsthat Canada and theUnited States are not

coming together, but arediverging in significantways.

• From the vehicles we buy

to the deference we pay toauthority, Canadians prove to be firmly separate

in their attitudes andopinions.”

• US states that border Canada show the mostsimilarity.

• The further South you go

the more divergent thevalues

• “As the United Statesgrows ever more dominanton the world stage, howcan we hope to hold on toour national identity?”



Globalization

• Individual countries will battle to maintaintheir cultures as the world becomes more

and more interdependent

• Knowledge and awareness of global issues

will increase the desire to travel

internationally especially in the younger generations and older generations as they

have the time to travel



Communication Technology• Communication technology especially with the

Internet has created a global village. Its impact isnot fully understood even today.

• The generation today is “connected” to all ends of

the world, seeing events live, and as a result havea much better understanding of the world and theimpact of specific events

• To some extent the ability to “speak” to people viathe Internet will create a truly global village

• An increased interest in cultural tourism and travel

will increase over the next decade



Work and Family

• The workplace has changed - withcommunications and technology improving

it will continue to change

– Flexible work schedules, telecommuting, the

home office, part-time workers, etc

• More flexibility in when they take time off – Importance of work-life balance

– Importance of leisure and family time



Work and Family

• Most families now have two workers• Time at work is time away from the family

• Time at work adds stress on family and

marriage

• People need to relieve the stress and look

for ways in which to do that – Importance of leisure, recreation and time

“away” with family and friends



Work and Family

• Global competition will act as a brakeagainst more leisure time- trade off between

being competitive at work and taking time

off



Work and Family

• Development of higher incomes but less free timewill change the way holidays are taken

– Competition for time

– Growing importance of time with family and friends• VFR will continue to be an important aspect of travel

• Holidays will tend to be shorter, more frequent

and include more intense forms of recreation• People will stay closer to home- enjoy their

purchases of boats, trailers and cottages



With a healthier balance between work and play,

people are actually more productive while on the job,

which enables them to put in more quality work timein less hours, leaving more time for leisure…

The LTA study revealed that about a third of those polled (32 percent) say they postpone fun because

they feel guilty when they are not doing something

they believe is productive. Yet seven out of 10 saythey simply need more fun in their lives.

• Leisure Time Distortion Study



Comparison by Age

Families

• Shorter, more frequent

trips

• Intraregional and domestic

• Stay closer to home

• Escaping the daily routine

and Reconnecting withfamily

Older Group

• Long-haul, longer

duration trips

• International and

intraregional

• To developing or exotic

locations

• Wish fulfillment and

cultural and learning

opportunities



Travel Participation Rate

• Maximum is 100%, but typically it is 75-85% because some people are sick, don’t have time or money, etc.

• If participation approaches that level than growthin holiday volume will level off. Therefore, participation can’t be a driving force for growth intravel demand

• Studies have indicated that there is a reduction infree time in developed countries worldwide andtherefore the participation rate might be on thelower limit (75%)



Physically active vs. passive

• The fastest growing activities are: bird watching,hiking, backpacking, and camping

• Decreased participation in hunting, horse riding

and fishing• Increased participation in technology-driveadventure activities such as skiing/snowboarding,

canoeing/kayaking, and cycling• Moderate growth in family-oriented activities such

as camping and swimming

• Growth trend of number, size and diversity of festivals will continue



Physically active vs. passive

• Travellers are going in search of exotic,unfamiliar, and unpredictable situations anddestinations – Getting them out of the daily routine

• Travellers are more interested in improvingthemselves intellectually, emotionally and

physically

• Growth in cultural tourism demand, stimulated byhigher levels of education and a thirst for

knowledge and personal development



Health

• The importance of health and hygiene withincountries and resorts has recently been

highlighted. Outbreaks of disease tend to have a

temporary or short-term impact on touriststraveling to worldwide destinations

• With more international travel, the exposure of

new viruses and “bugs” to citizens, both incomingand local, is inevitable

– Further health crisis will continue in the future



Impact

• The long-term impact of health concerns isnot known

– World Health Organization is growing in

importance, awareness, and power • Will it become an issue of national security?

– Will we become desensitized to these issues? – Will it become a common factor for tourism?

– What will be next health crisis?



Lawsuit over SARS

• Toronto nurse sues for $600 million over SARS – Claims authorities were more interested in tourism than

safety – Claims defendants eased infection-control procedures at

hospitals too early while concentrating on lifting a

World Health Organization (WHO) travel advisory thatrecommended against visiting Toronto.

– This lapse allowed the deadly disease to resume itsspread

• Potential longer term impact if lawsuit issuccessful. Stricter control and guidelines will beenforced. Public safety vs. economic benefit

• Potential to tarnish “reputation of tourism”



War and Terrorism

• A major war or terrorist action gives anunexpected or sudden shock to travel

demand, with short and long term effects

throughout a large influence zone – E.g. SARS, War in Iraq, coupled with the

continued economic downturn in the USeconomy with have a longer term impact on

travel demand (interaction effect)



Border Restrictions

• Border entry into the US: Pictures and finger-

printing of entries except for certain countries

• Similar entry procedures being developed for non-

European citizens entering the European Union(EU)

• Fingerprinting travelers is becoming more

prevalent in various airports worldwide.

– What impact will tightening borders and entry

procedures have on international travel?



Forecasts

What does the future look like?



Forecasts for Tourism

• Global Forecasts• Americas Forecasts

• Canada Forecasts• Alberta (estimates) based on Canada

Forecasts

– Source: World Tourism Organization, Tourism

Vision 2020



Tourism 2020 Vision

• Tourism 2020 Vision – Americas, WorldTourism Organization, 2000

• Note: Even with the downshift in tourism

demand in 2001, 2002, and 2003, the WTO

feels that over the long term the forecast

will hold.



Global Forecast

• International arrivals expected to be 1.56 billion, annual

growth rate of 4.1%

• Long haul travel is expected to grow faster than

intraregional

• Tourism is expected to grow at around 4-5% each year

globally. This is expected to be relatively constant for the

foreseeable future.

• Receipts continue to show even more impressive gains.

• Top receiving regions: Europe, East Asia/Pacific,

Americas



1985 1990 1995 2000 (f) 2010 (f) 2020 (f)

Total Americas 64.3 92.8 108.9 130.2 190.4 282.3

Africa 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9

Americas

(intraregional)

53.8 71.7 78.9 92.8 122.9 159.9

East Asia/Pacific 2.8 5.9 8.5 8.8 18.1 40.0

Europe 5.9 11.6 15.9 21.3 38.3 65.5

Middle East 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5

South Asia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6

Not specified 1.2 3.0 4.9 6.5 9.7 14.9

Americas Forecast



Canada ForecastActual Forecast Market Share Average

Annual

Growth

1995 2010 2020 1995 2020 1995-2020

Total Americas 108.9 190.4 282.3 100 100 3.9

North 80.5 131.9 192.0 73.9 68.0 3.5

USA 43.3 72.8 102.4 39.8 36.3 3.5

Canada 16.9 26.5 40.6 15.5 14.4 3.6

Mexico 20.2 32.5 48.9 18.6 17.3 3.6



WTO Tourism 2020 Vision:

Forecast of Tourist Arrivals in Canada

by Main MarketsOrigin Market Actual 1995 Forecast

2010

Forecast

2020

Growth Rate

1995-2020

United States 13,005,200 18,798,624 26,503,355 2.9

United Kingdom 640,500 1,608,957 3,165,063 6.6

Japan 589,300 872,308 1,420,898 3.6

France 430,200 622,835 921,948 3.1

Germany 420,800 565,520 837,108 2.8

Hong Kong (China) 217,100 290,485 473,169 3.2

Australia 141,600 273,942 490,588 5.1

Korea 112,500 269,613 530,369 6.4

Netherlands 99,500 216,893 388,422 5.6

Taiwan (P.C.) 98,000 309,296 608,433 7.6

Other 1,177,400 2,685,023 5,281,846 6.2

Total 16,932,100 26,513,495 40,621,198 3.6

Visitation- person visits



Alberta Tourism

Revenue Forecast

2002

2003

Estimate %Change 2010Outlo %Change 2015Outloo %Change 2020Outloo %Change

Alberta $2,889 $2,675 (7.4) $3,374 4.5 $4,324 2.5 $5,360 2

Canada $1,192 $1,089 (8.6) $1,416 5.5 $1,851 4.5 $2,262 2

United States $656 $616 (6.1) $818 5 $947 -2 $1,152 3

Europe $364 $339 (6.9) $438 4.5 $546 -1 $670 3

Asia-Pacific $308 $262 (14.9) $344 -3 $436 3 $530 3

Other Oversea $39 $37 (5.1) $44 5 $46 3 $62 8

Total $5,448 $5,018 (7.9) $6,434 4.3 $8,150 2.2 $10,036 2.3



Other Jurisdictions

What are they doing?



Britain- United Kingdom

The mission of British Tourism Authority (BTA)

is sustainable tourism growth that contributes to

Government wider goals for sustainable

development.

“Sustainable tourism meets the needs of present

tourists and host regions while protecting and enhancing opportunities for the future.” WTO




Key Strategies• Ensure visitors return and recommend

– through increased training in the industry improving the

standards of products and services – maximize incremental leisure travel from business

stemming travel

• Sustain and increase levels of tourism growth – tourism is seen in all strategies as a key component of national economic growth and of regeneration inregions where traditional industries are in decline.




Key Strategies• Maximize the benefits of tourism locally

– away from “honeypot” sites

• Encourage the use of public transport – to solve the problems of congestion and increase visitor

satisfaction

• Increase the seasonal spread of tourism

– reduce staff turn over through training



Western Australia (WA)

The mission of the Western Australian Tourism

Commission is to accelerate the sustainable

growth of tourism for the long term benefit of

Western Australia

Through four key strategies that support six

common objectives.




Key Strategies

• Event and Business Tourism Strategy

– maximize impact of national and international eventsfor WA, grow regional and business tourism

– develop “iconic” events to give WA a unique identity

• Industry Development and Visitor Servicing

Strategy – through traditional and on-line services and partnerships enhance visitor experience in WA

– through product-focused partnerships develop nature based tourism and WA “iconic” experiences




Key Strategies• Marketing and Communication Strategy

– focuses on 10 international markets, Australian

interstate market and the intrastate market – through partnerships and media, grow year-round

tourism. Specifically, focus on:

• the international student market,• one-on-one marketing, and

• give responsibility for intrastate marketing to the Regional

Tourism Organizations




Key Strategies

• Pathways Forward: Strategic Plan 2003-2008

– Grow WA tourism faster than the national average

– Increase recognition of WA “iconic” experiences – Enhance visitor experience in WA

– Grow regional tourism through partnerships and localempowerment

– Make WA a natural choice for tourism investment

– Achieve recognition for the tourism industry as aleading economic contributor to the State



Ontario

The mission of the Ontario TourismMarketing Partnership Corporation

(OTMPC) is to:

grow Ontario’s tourism sector year-round by stimulating increased consumer spending and visits and

by generating greater partnership participation.



OntarioKey Strategies

• Develop experience-based tourism vs.activity/product based

– focus on promoting emotional experiences associated

with travel in Ontario and building a strong distinctiveOntario brand image

• Publications strategy

– to support the new experience-based marketing strategyand generate year-round demand for travel



Ontario

Key Strategies

• Internet and E-marketing Strategy

– to capitalize on the ever-increasing consumer

use of the internet for trip planning and bookings

– and to support the ‘Ontario’ brand

• Northern Marketing Strategy

– to build partnerships in Northern Ontario



Ontario

Key Strategies• Meetings, Conventions and Incentive Travel

Strategy (MC&IT)

– to reclaim Ontario’s position as a location of choice for major conventions and

– to maximize incremental leisure travel stemming from

the business travel



British Columbia

The mission of the Tourism British Columbia is to

ensure quality visitor experiences that grow the

success of British Columbia’s tourism industry.

The Tourism Branch of the Ministry of Small Business and

Economic development is working in partnership with

Tourism BC to develop a Provincial Tourism Strategy that will provide a framework for driving and implementing key

provincial tourism deliverables.



British Columbia

Key Strategies• Creation of jobs in the tourism industry and

training

• Maximize the impact of Vancouver hosting the2010 Olympic and Paralympics Winter Games

• Incorporate technology that connects BritishColumbia tourism products and services with

consumers efficiently



What does this mean?

Where are the opportunities for

Alberta’s tourism industry in thefuture?



Psychographic Markets• Outdoor adventure

– Contests, events, challenging and new adventures

– Typically outdoors

• Family Time- Relax

– Time to be together, out of the daily routine, peace

– Camping, hiking, backpacking, bird watching

• Culture and Learning

– Museums, art galleries, cultural events and attractions – Immersion into different cultures

• Seclusion

– Looking for peace and quiet



Outdoor Adventure• The outdoor experience is still a major attraction of

domestic and international tourists

• This segment is focused on new challenges, it is anaccomplishment when finished.

• Major events and programs that provide new challenges to

participants both during the event – typically and after • Public support and programs are needed. Industry can

develop products (e.g. guided tours, rentals, packages, etc.)

around it - event lives on longer



Relax and Recharge• As time limitations increase, especially in domestic markets, this

segment will be looking for opportunities to travel shorter distances while still being able to participate in activities and re-

connect with family.• Want to stay close to home as they feel safer and more

comfortable.

• Need family activities for the Alberta market from the Calgary-Edmonton corridor to other parts of the province.

• Will stay away from the Rocky Mountain corridor if other opportunities exist because of cost and capacity factors.

• These families enjoy camping, hiking, museums and other activities for the kids. Need activities for everyone in the family.

• Like packages and trails- decreases planning time and they are budget conscious- like itineraries.

• Need to improve and maintain local attractions.



Culture and Learning• Both domestic and international markets, with emphasis on

the international markets are looking for travel

opportunities where they can learn about the history andculture.

• The overall experience should be specific to the region.They are looking for a new experience. e.g. CanadianBadlands with Aboriginal tourism components.

• Markets like China will be looking for tours that offer thistype of component while being active. i.e. where they can

get out and talk to people and learn hands-on.• Need to maintain museums, historic sites, and other

cultural attractions in the province

• Tours, trails, and information should have the local history,cultural attractions, and opportunities for interaction



Seclusion• In the domestic market especially the near-in markets, there is a

segment that will be looking to “get away” from all thedistractions.

• They will want to get away regularly on weekends and will wantto stay close to home.

• With limited down-time from work and increasing familyresponsibilities, they will be looking for new places to go. Thisis especially true as the Rocky Mountain region reachescapacity.

• This segment likes the idea of a cabin near a lake where they

can fish; they don’t need many amenities.• Opportunity in regions of the province where some public

infrastructure exists or can be built- where they can enjoy theoutdoors, the peace and quiet, and some amenities close by.

alberta tourism trends to 2020

Documents