alaska ppt slides
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Alaska Conservation Solutions2008
The Greatest ThreatThe Greatest Threat
“There is no doubt in my mind that climate change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity today.”
Markku Niskala Secretary-General of the Red Cross
January 2008
Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved
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“Things are getting desperate enough now that we need to throw away our conservatism and just act.”
Dr. Terry Chapin, University of Alaska – Fairbanks
The Greatest ThreatThe Greatest Threat
Amanda Byrd/Canadian Ice Service
What do these pollutants do? – Global Fever
Greenhouse gases make the earth too hot, just like:
> sleeping under a heavy blanket in the summertime
> wearing a parka that is too thick
Our atmospheric “blanket” or “parka” is over 35% “thicker” than it used to be
Thicker blanket traps too
much heat.
Thinner blanket is “just right.”
Global Warming Basics
Weather vs. Climate
“Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is about weather; the ratio of shorts to long underwear in the drawer is about climate.”
Charles Wohlforth ~ The Whale and the Supercomputer
20081950
Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere -- up to a few days
Climate: Long-term averages, frequencies and extremes -- generally 3 to 5 decades
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Weather vs. Climate“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.” Mark Twain
Anchorage, AKJanuary 18, 2009
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Alaska is Ground ZeroAlaska is Ground Zero
Chapman and Walsh, 2004
In past 50 years,
Alaska: Temperatures have increased
4oF overall (National Assessment Synthesis Team)
Worldwide: Temperatures have increased slightly more
than 1oF (IPCC, 2007)
Global Warming BasicsG
loba
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he G
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Deb
orah
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Surface Air Temperature Trends 1942-2003
Chapman and Walsh, 2004
Temperature Change oC
1970-2004
-1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5
Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004
IPCC, 2007
Future Temperatures in Alaska
Temperature Measurements
.
NASA 2008
Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months
Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska
Snow and sea ice reflect 85-90% of sun’s energy
Ocean surface and dark soil reflect only
10-20%
The Albedo Effect
It’s like wearing a white shirt v. a black shirt
Why has Alaska warmed the most?Why has Alaska warmed the most?
Increased melting of snow
and sea ice
Increased melting of snow
and sea ice
More of sun’s heat energy is
absorbed
More of sun’s heat energy is
absorbed
More dark earthand ocean surface
is exposed
More dark earthand ocean surface
is exposedLand or water warms faster
Land or water warms faster
Global Warming BasicsG
loba
l War
min
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he G
reat
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Deb
orah
L. W
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(ACIA, 2004)
Other Factors:
1) Albedo effect2) More energy goes directly into warming than into evaporation
3) Atmosphere layer is thinner in the Arctic
4) Increased heat transfer from oceans as sea ice retreats
5) Alterations in atmospheric and ocean circulationACIA Graphic
Why has Alaska warmed the most?Why has Alaska warmed the most?
Global Warming Basics
(ACIA 2004)
Temperature Measurements
.
NASA 2008
Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months
Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska
1. Melting ice, glaciers and permafrost
2. Animals
3. Wetlands and forests
4. Weather and storms
5. People and culture
Impacts of Warming in AlaskaImpacts of Warming in Alaska
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AA
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Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
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sImpacts in Alaska
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
Melting Sea IceMelting Sea Ice
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23% smaller than previous minimum; 39% smaller than average
Ice 50% thinner (D. A. Rothrock et al., 1999)
Ice only 3 feet thick in most locations (NOAA FAQ, 2007)
In September 2007 an area the size of Florida (69,000 square miles) melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)
Humpback whales spotted in Arctic Ocean for first time in 2007
Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008
The Ice Cap in September
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
The Ice Cap in September
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
Sea Ice edge Sep. 16, 2007
September median ice edge
1979-2000
New minimum: 1.59 million square miles
(4.13 million square km)
Previous minimum: 2.05 million square miles
(2005)
Average minimum: 2.60 million square miles
(1979 – 2000)
1 million square miles is an area roughly the size of Alaska and Texas combined,
or ten United Kingdoms (NSIDC,
2007)
Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
NSIDC (2008)
Arctic sea ice extent reached annual low on September 12, 2008: The second-lowest level ever 33% less than average minimum from 1979-2000
Melting Sea IceMelting Sea IceImpacts in Alaska
1. Melting
Arctic winter ice 2008: Loss of older, thicker (12 – 15 ft) ice
Old ice (6+ years) has declined from over 20% to about 6%
Over 70% of ice is first-year
NSIDC (2008)
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
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Melting Sea IceMelting Sea IceThe Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040.
(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research 2006)
“Our research indicates that society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice.”
Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research
2000 2040
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
The rapid retreat of Alaska’s glaciers represents 50% of the estimated mass loss by glaciers through 2004 worldwide (ACIA, 2004)
Loss of over 588 billion cubic yards from 1961 to 1998 (Climate Change, 11/05)
Alaska’s glaciers are responsible for at least 9% of the global sea level rise in the past century (ACIA, 2004)
Bering Glacier, representing more than 15% of all the ice in Alaska, is melting twice as fast as previously believed, releasing approximately 8 trillion gallons of water per year into the ocean -- or the equivalent of two Colorado Rivers (Michigan Tech Research Institute, 5/07)
19411941
20042004
USGS photo
Bruce Molnia photo
Glacial RetreatGlacial Retreat
20032003
Ma
tt N
ola
n p
ho
toA
ust
in P
ost
ph
oto
19581958
McCall Glacier
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
Glacial RetreatGlacial Retreat
Accelerated melting of glaciers and ice caps could add an additional 4 to 9.5 inches of sea level rise. (Science 7/07)
Alaska’s Columbia Glacier has decreased by approximately 9 miles since 1980 and thinned by as much as 1,300 feet.. (Science 7/07)
Permafrost ThawingPermafrost Thawing
“All the Observatories show a substantial warming during the last 20 years”, causing permafrost to melt at an unprecedented rate. (State of the Arctic 2006)
Impacts in Alaska1. Melting
Damage to infrastructure, lakes, rivers, and forests
Rising sea levels Release of stored carbon
(methane and CO2)
Damage to infrastructure, lakes, rivers, and forests
Rising sea levels Release of stored carbon
(methane and CO2)
Consequences:
Vladimir Romanovsky photo
-6C
-8C
-10C 1980 1988 1996 2004
Soil Temperature at 20m DepthOsterkamp and Romanovsky
Deadhorse
West Dock
NSIDC
Osterkamp and Romanovsky
Deadhorse
West Dock
z
DE
PT
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| | | | | | | |-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1oCTEMPERATURE
Soil Temperatures at Franklin Bluffs
0
1m
Average1987-2003
1987 2003
• Polar bears• Walruses• Ice seals• Black guillemots• Kittiwakes• Salmon• Caribou• Arctic grayling
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Animals at RiskAnimals at Risk
Rising temperatures
Shrinking habitat
Food harder to get
Expanding diseases
Competition
Polar bearsWalrusesIce seals
Caribou
Black guillemotsKittiwakesSalmon
Arctic grayling
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Polar Bears in PerilPolar Bears in Peril
Numbers in western Hudson Bay have declined 22% in 17 years (U.S. Geological
Service & Canadian Wildlife Service, 2005)
87% on sea ice (1979-1991) vs. 33% on sea ice (1992-2004) (Monnett et al., 12/05)
Alaska polar bear drownings in 2004: 4 documented, 27 estimated total (U.S. Minerals Management Service, 2004)
Cannibalism in 2004 (Amstrup et al., 2006)
Photo © environmentaldefense.org. All rights reserved
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Polar Bear CannibalismPolar Bear CannibalismPhotos courtesy of Steven Amstrup, USGS
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Amstrup et al., Polar Biology - accepted March 27, 2006 © Springer-Verlag 2006
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Polar Bears in PerilPolar Bears in Peril Cubs perishing (61 cubs per
100 females between 1967-89; 25 cubs per 100 females between 1990-2006 ), smaller skulls and adult starvation (Regehr & Amstrup, 2006)
Shifting denning sites: 62% on ice (1985-94); 37% on ice (1998-2004) (Fischbach et al., 2007)
USGS predicts the extirpation of Alaska’s polar bears by 2050, with an overall elimination of two-thirds of the global population (USGS, 2007)
Secretary Kempthorne proposed listing the polar bear as threatened
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Impacts in Alaska2. AnimalsWalrus Warning
SignsWalrus Warning Signs
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Abandoned walrus calves: They were “swimming around us crying” (Aquatic Mammals 4/06)
Haulout on Land: Thousands of walruses on shore in Alaska in 2007; 40,000 in one haulout in Russia (AP 10/07)
Stampeding Deaths: 3,000 to 4,000 stampeding deaths in Russia in 2007
Other Concerns: More energy expended in foraging; depleted habitat; increased calf mortality
Photo © Viktor Nikiforov, WWF-Russia
Female walruses depend on sea ice over the continental shelf for feeding and nursing platforms
Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com
Brown BearsFactors of Concern:
Diet impairment: fish and berries (Kenai Brown Bears – fish 90% of diet vs. black bears 10%)
Hibernation disturbances for reproducing females (Jan-May) 2 months to implant Cub growth Flooding of dens (Sean Farley, ADF&G, 2007)
Reduction in productivity and survival rates
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
following salmon decline in Kuskokwim; additional research underway (Steve Kovach, FWS, 2007)
Caribou
The Western Arctic Caribou Herd
shrank by 113,000 (more than 20%)
between 2003 and 2007; mid-winter
warm spells may have played a role
(AP 5/08)
Since 1989, the Porcupine Caribou
Herd has declined at 3.5% per year
to a low of 123,000 animals
in 2001 (ACIA 2004) Freezing rain coats lichen
Changing rivers
Less tundra
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Dall Sheep
Dall sheep live exclusively in alpine tundra
Due to warmer temperatures, the tree line in the Kenai Mountains has risen at a rate of about 1 meter/year over the past 50 years
20% of the tundra above 1,500 ft. has disappeared, is now shrub or open woodland (Refuge Notebook, 6/07)
“…we’re going to have declining Dall sheep. We’re losing their habitat.” Dr. John Morton - Kenai National Wildlife Refuge
Photo: Tim Craig, Wildlife Biologist BLM
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Muskoxen Population in northern Alaska and
Canada declined from approximately 700 to 400 (Pat Reynolds, FWS, 2007)
Risk Factors:
• Icing events
• Lower calf production
• Deeper snow
• Not highly mobile
• Increase in disease (e.g. nematode
lungworm, able to complete life
cycle in 1 year v. 2 years) (Kutz et al., 2004)
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Birds Threatened Birds ThreatenedImpacts in Alaska
2. Animals
Declines in Kittlitz’s Murrelet:
Prince William Sound: 97% from 1989 - 2001
Glacier Bay: 89% from 1991 - 2000
Kenai Peninsula:
83% since 1976 (BirdLife International, Kittlitz’s Murrelet Species Fact Sheet, 2006)
“ The fate of the Kittlitz’s Murrelet may hinge on
the fate of Alaska’s glaciers, and therefore
Kittlitz’s may be among the world’s first
avian species to succumb to the effects of
rising
Photo © 2004 Gary Luhm. All rights reserved.
Kittlitz’s Murrelet
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Subsistence observations: Birds flying higher, farther away Lakes and rivers too low Fewer birds seen
global temperatures.”
(John F. Piatt, USGS, and Kathy Kuletz, USFWS)
Alaska Waterfowl
Hatch dates have advanced 5 - 10 days since 1982 in all 5 species studied in Yukon Delta NWR
Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and intensity, and wetland drying will likely cause dramatic changes in waterfowl communities Julien Fischer, Scientist, USFWS (2007)
Aleutian Cackling Geese White Front Goose on Nest Brandt Geese
Cackling Hatchlings
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Waterfowl -- Scaup Population appears to be “in peril”
(Consensus Report, 2006)
Declined from over 7 million (in 1970s)
to 3.39 million (2005) (CR)
Record low in 2006: 3.2 million (Ducks Unlimited) 70% breed in western boreal forest;
Fastest rate of decline there (94,000 birds per year from 1978 - 2005) … “Declines reflect breeding season events.” (CR)
19% wetland loss in Yukon Flats (1985 - 89 v. 2001 - 03)
Where ponds lose 20% or more surface, scaup food sources decline (i.e. amphipods,
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
gastropods and chironomid larvae) (Corcoran et al., 2007)
AF
IP p
hoto
E.R
.Keeley photo
Protozoan parasite Icthyophonus never found in Yukon salmon before 1985
Today, up to 45% of the Yukon’s Chinook salmon are infected
(Kocan et al.,
2004)
Infection is causing: Wastage Reduced returns to spawning grounds Mortality
R. K
ocan
pho
to
Yukon Chinook DiseasedYukon Chinook Diseased
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Yukon River: Water Temperature
Courtesy of Dr. R. Kocan
Photo: Armed Forces Institute of Pathology
R. K
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E.R. Keeley photo
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Temperatures in Kenai Peninsula streams now consistently exceed Alaska’s standard to protect salmon spawning areas (13o C/ 55o F)
Kenai Streams: Days Above Temperature Standard
Source: Cook Inlet Keeper, August 2007
Kenai Salmon Streams WarmingKenai Salmon Streams Warming
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
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Smaller Fry in Silted Skilak LakeSmaller Fry in Silted Skilak Lake
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Glacial melt has increased silt in Skilak Lake (major rearing area for Kenai River sockeye)
Less light, plankton production and food for salmon fry
Fry in 2004 were about 50% smaller than average for the prior decade; fry in 2005 were 60% smaller (AK Department of Fish & Game, 2005)
Photo: NWS/APRFC, NOAA
Photo © Adams River Salmon Soc
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Impacts in Alaska2. AnimalsLow Pink Salmon
HarvestsLow Pink Salmon Harvests
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ADFG 2006 SE purse seine
Predicated: 52 million Actual: 11.6 million
Low number was due in “large part to the warmer temperatures of 2004, when the parents of this season’s mature fish would have been affected” (ADFG, 2006)
Exotic Species AppearingExotic Species AppearingImpacts in Alaska
2. Animals
“Squid, sharks and barracuda are among species newly arrived in Alaska waters.”
Seiners and troll fishermen have sighted sardines, anchovies, jumbo squid, sharks, barracuda and large concentrations of brilliantly hued open-ocean fish such as pomfret and opah.
Juneau Empire September 25, 2005
2005 GOA water temperatures were 2-3o higher than average.
Juneau Empire, 9/25/05
Photo courtesy of the D
eep Blue G
allery.
Photo © Ocean Research, Inc.
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Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing
Impacts in Alaska2. Animals
Gary Luhm
Change from arctic to subarctic conditions underway in the northern Bering Sea
Prey base for benthic-feeding gray whales, walrus, and sea ducks is declining
North Pacific Fisheries Management Council cut 2007 catch quotas for pollock by 6% due to fish migrating northward into cooler waters
Scientists predict 40% loss of Bering Sea Ice by 2050 (USGS, 2007) NOAA photo
Image: NASA Earth Observatory
Photo courtesy of J. Overland
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NOAA Photo
Wetlands and ForestsWetlands and ForestsImpacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
Over the last 5 decades, in areas of the Kenai NWR:
(Klein, Berg and Dial, 2004)
8-14,000 year old sphagnum peat bogs are drying out and becoming shrub lands (Ed Berg, Kenai Nat. Wildlife Refuge)
USFWS photo courtesy of Ed Berg
USFWS photo
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Open areas decreased by 34%
Wet areas decreased by 88%
Water and lakes decreased by 14%
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Study Area % Decrease in
Number of Ponds% Decrease in Area of Ponds
Copper River BasinMinto Flats SGRInnoko Flats NWRYukon Flats NWR
54 %36 %30 %10 %
28 %25 %31 %18 %
Disappearance of Ponds since 1950’s (Riordan et al., 2006)
Disappearing & Shrinking Ponds
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
Based on Inventory of 10,000 closed-basin ponds
In 1950, critical temperature threshold crossed (16o C/60o F); since then, growth has declined
Species could be eliminated from central Alaska by the end of this century (ACIA, 2004)
photo Barbara Logan © 2005. [email protected]
Forest Decline: White SpruceForest Decline: White Spruce
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
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Forest Decline: Black SpruceForest Decline: Black Spruce
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
The dominant tree in about 55% of Alaska’s boreal forest
Warming temperatures result in strongly reduced growth
Trees also disrupted by thawing ground
By 2100, predicted temperature scenarios would not allow black spruce to survive in Fairbanks area (ACIA,
2004)
USFS photo
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Forest Decline: Yellow CedarForest Decline: Yellow Cedar
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
- Warmer winters (premature dehardening in springtime)
- Reduced snow cover (less insulation)
A dramatic decline has affected over 500,000 acres of yellow cedar in SE Alaska.
The suspected cause is spring freezing injury, due to:
(Hennon/USFS 2004; Schaberg & Hennon 2005)
Pau
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Paul Hennon photo
Before 1990, spruce budworm was not able to reproduce in central Alaska
After warm summers in the 1990’s, large infestations of budworms have occurred
USDA Forest Service, Dave Powell photo
With increased warming, all white spruce in Alaska will be vulnerable to outbreaks.
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
Spruce Bud WormSpruce Bud Worm
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(ACIA, 2004)
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
Spruce Bark BeetleSpruce Bark Beetle
Cause: Warmer summers
One year life- cycles Warmer winters
No kill-off
Columbia University photo http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194
USFS photo
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The world’s largest outbreak of spruce bark beetle has infested approximately 4 million acres on the Kenai Peninsula(ACIA 2004)
6.6 million acres burned in 2004
4.6 million acres burned in 2005
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
Forest FiresForest Fires
Bureau of Land ManagementJohn McColgan photo
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Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
mill
ion
s o
f a
cre
s
Alaska Acres Burned 1956-2005
Tundra Fires Impacts in Alaska
3. Wetlands and Forests
0
50
100
150
200
250
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Thou
sand
s of
Acr
es
*2007 fire still active as of 9/21/07
Reported thousands acres burned north of 68o latitude from 1950-2007 Alaska Fire Service, 2007
Anaktuvuk River Fire, 2007
North Slope Fire, 2004
Invasive Plant SpeciesInvasive Plant Species
Aggressive invader of wetlands, serious threat to habitat and species diversity
Requires warm temperatures for germination (15-20C) (ADFG)
“Northern limits of distribution may be strongly influenced by low growing season temperature.” (USFS)
Now seen for the first time in Alaska, along Chester Creek
EXAMPLE: Purple Loosestrife
WI D
ept N
atur
al R
esou
rces
Can
adia
n D
ept o
f Agr
icul
ture
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
Insect PestsInsect Pests
© Ralph Berry OSU
Canadian Ministry of Forests
European black slug
Woolly sawfly European slugs: New to
Alaska, now flourishing from Kenai to Interior
Aphids: Growth increases exponentially with temperature
Birch leaf roller, birch leaf miner, larch saw fly, aspen leaf miner (Glenn Juday, Professor of Forest Ecology, UAF)
Woolly sawfly: Longer growing season can allow two life cycles within one year
Warmer conditions can allow or worsen a variety of pest infestations:
Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests
Plants stressed by heat or drought are more susceptible (Michael Rasy, IPM, UAF Coop. Ext.)
Infrastructure and StormsInfrastructure and Storms
Impacts in Alaska4. Weather and Storms
September 2005:
Storm surges 9 ft, waves 15 ft.
34 communities affected.
Unalakleet lost 10-20 feet of beach.
Newtok lost 10 ft of beach and a 1000 gallon fuel tank.
Golovin homes were flooded for an unprecedented third year in a row. (Anchorage Daily News 9/28/05)
Kotzebue
Nome
Bethel
Golovin
Newtok
Unalakleet
Shishmaref, October 2002
Pho
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Gar
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raas
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Golovin, September 23, 2005. photo courtesy of Toby Anungazuk, Jr.Glo
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Impacts in Alaska4. Weather and Storms
InfrastructureInfrastructure Some shorelines have
retreated more than 1500 feet over past few decades. (National Assessment Synthesis Team)
Newtok lost 2-3 miles in 40 years.
In a single storm in 1997, Shishmaref lost 125 feet of beach.
184 communities are at risk from flooding and erosion (GAO estimate).
“Coastal villages are becoming more susceptible to flooding and erosion caused in part by rising temperature.”(GAO 2004) Shishmaref
photos courtesy of the Nome Nugget, from arctic.noaa.gov
2:32 PM
October 8, 2002
12:37 PM
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Tony W
eyiouanna, Sr. photo
Impacts in Alaska4. Weather and Storms
InfrastructureInfrastructureArmy Corps of Engineers, April 2006 Report
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Costs of Future Erosion Protection
Cost to Relocate
How Long Does The Community Have
Kivalina 15,000,000 $ 95 – 125 million 10 – 15 years Newtok 90,000,000 $ 80 – 130 million 10 – 15 years Shishmaref 16,000,000 $100 – 200 million 10 – 15 yearsBethel $5,000,000 N/A > 100 years Dillingham 10,000,000 N/A > 100 years Kaktovik 40,000,000 $ 20 – 40 million > 100 years Unalakleet 30,000,000 N/A > 100 years
Infrastructure Impacts in Alaska
4. Weather and Storms
“A warming climate will damage Alaska’s infrastructure because it was designed for a cold climate.” (Larsen and Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research 6/07)
- Damage to infrastructure may add $3.6 to $6.1 billion (10% to 20%) to future costs for public infrastructure from now to 2030 and $5.6 to $7.6 billion (10% to 12%) from now to 2080.
- Damage will be concentrated in areas of thawing permafrost, flooding, and eroding coastlines.
Alaska’s Arctic Coast USGS documented
that in the last 50 years, a section of the Alaska North Slope coastline has eroded by as much as 3,000 ft (0.9 KM).
(Geology 07/07)
Erosion rates for the area increased from .48 km2/year (1955-1985) 1.08 km2/year (1985-2005). (Geology 07/07)
Impacts in Alaska4. Weather and Storms
National Security
Three North American Aerospace Defense Command early-warning radar sites in Alaska to be shut down due, in part, to erosion
caused by climate change; Point Lonely already closed
(New York Times,
12/07)
NORAD AK Region
Impacts in Alaska4. Weather and Storms
The Northwest Passage
September 2008:
Northwest Passage &
Northern Sea Route
both open (less than
one-tenth surface ice) for
first time since satellite
observations began (US National Ice Center)
Canadian Internal Waters or International Straits?
Sept. 8, 2008
(NASA)
Maritime Jurisdiction & Boundaries
International Boundaries Research Unit, Durham Universitywww.durham.ac.uk/ibru
Staking Claims: The First Map (Aug. 2008)
Countries that control Arctic coastline:
United States
Canada
Russia
Norway
Denmark (Greenland)
Each allowed 200-mile economic zone beyond shoreline – or continental shelf, if geologically related
May 2008:
5 Arctic states agree that UN Commission will settle competing territorial claims
International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (geology.com)
The Lomonosov Ridge
Potential claimants to North Pole ownership: Russia Canada Denmark (via Greenland)
July 2008 USGS estimate:
13% of undiscovered oil & 30% of undiscovered gas lie under Arctic seabed
Oil & gas recovery possible – But at what environmental & human costs?
No one owns the North Pole – Yet
Health Impacts
Health Impacts
Oyster contamination in summer of 2004 (New England Journal of Medicine, 2005)
Hazardous travel, hunting and fishing
Adverse dietary impacts
Beaver range expanding
Health damage from fires -- respiratory illnesses, especially in elderly, children
Water and sewer failures
First yellowjacket sting deaths in Fairbanks in 2006; 50% increase in sting-related emergencies (Dr. Jeffrey Demain, UAA)
South Fairbanks smoke, June 2004
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Alaska’s Uniqueness
Global warming threatens Alaska’s very soul and special quality of life
Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
Race Cancelled 3 of last 8
years
Start Moved 6 of last 10 years
Subsistence ImpactsSubsistence Impacts
Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
“…the Arctic is becoming an environment at risk… Sea ice is less stable, unusual weather patterns are occurring, vegetation cover is changing, and particular animals are no longer found in traditional hunting areas during specific seasons.
Local landscapes, seascapes, and icescapes are becoming unfamiliar, making people feel like
strangers in their own land.” (ACIA, 2004)
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
Photo © Alaska Division of TourismNOAA photoGlo
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Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
People and CulturePeople and Culture
“Climate change is occurring faster than people can adapt. [It] is strongly affecting people in many communities, in some cases threatening their cultural survival.”(ACIA 2004)
Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation
Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism
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Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
Indigenous PeoplesIndigenous Peoples
“For the Inuit, climate change is a matter of livelihood, food, health, and individual and cultural survival.”
“The erosion and potential destruction of our way of life brought about by climate change resulting from emission of greenhouse gases amounts to a violation of the fundamental human rights of Inuit.”
Sheila Watts-CloutierFormer Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference
Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
Indigenous PeoplesIndigenous Peoples
“In no case may a people be deprived of its own means of subsistence.”
United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
“Due to unusual ice conditions, one of our young local hunters lost his life, which has not
occurred in our community in my lifetime.” Fannie Weyiouanna, Shishmaref
“All of these villages have lost people on the ice. When you have a small village of 300 or 400 people, losing three or four of their senior hunters, it’s a big loss. A lot of the elders will no longer go out on the sea ice because their knowledge will not work anymore. What they’ve learned and passed on for 5,000 years is no longer functional.”
Will Steger Founder, globalwarming101.org
Pho
to: C
hristoph Lü
pkes, A
lfred W
egen
er Institute
Photo: Environment Canada
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Human Impacts
If we fail to act, and CO2 keeps rising at the current rate, then a new modeling study predicts that:
If we do not Act: Worst Case
PredictedTemperature
Increase
Average temperatures in many parts of northern North America will rise more than 25oF by 2100.
Arctic tundra will decline from 8% to 1.8% of the world’s land area, and Alaska will lose almost all of its evergreen boreal forests.
Extinctions and profound disruptions will ensue.
_
_
_
_
_ +5
+10
+15
+20
+25oF
(Govindasamy and Caldeira, 2005)
Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
Shishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must HelpShishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must Help
Ton
y W
eyio
uann
a, S
r.
Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts
Kelly Eningowuk photo
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
The Options:
Relocate entire village.
Pay villagers to disperse to Nome, Kotzebue, and Anchorage.
Do nothing.
The Options:
Relocate entire village.
Pay villagers to disperse to Nome, Kotzebue, and Anchorage.
Do nothing.
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
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The “Do Nothing” OptionThe “Do Nothing” Option
Rob
ert P
usch
endo
rf
Adaptation1. Relocating Villages
“The no action option for Shishmaref is the annihilation of our community…”
“We are unique, and need to be valued as a national treasure by the people of the United States. We deserve the attention and help of the American people and the federal government.”
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
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Shishmaref’s RequestShishmaref’s RequestAdaptation
1. Relocating Villages
“[We request that] Shishmaref be used as a Federal demonstration project with maximum flexibility to determine what changes need to be made to lower the cost and impact of relocation, identify a Federal champion, and facilitate agency coordination.”
“We are worth saving.”
Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo
Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006
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InundationGlobal Cataclysmic Concerns
Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Inundation InundationInundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)
Weiss and Overpeck, 2006
Global Cataclysmic Concerns
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Courtesy of Peter Larsen, UAA
Alaska Highways and Communities Susceptible to Permafrost Melting
Map courtesy of Orson Smith
Adaptation: Other NeedsAdaptation: Other NeedsAdaptation
2. Infrastructure
Permafrost:-- continuous-- discontinuous-- sporadic-- <10%
Lands management
Fish and wildlife management
Water and waste management
Archaeology
Highway repair
Adaptation is needed in many other areas:
Ala
n P
arki
nson
pho
to
US
FW
S p
hoto
AN
TH
C p
hoto
Adaptation: Not always possibleAdaptation: Not always possible
Adaptation3. Extinctions
Adaptation is critical but not sufficient.
If global warming emissions continue to increase, irreplaceable elements of our natural and cultural heritage will be lost forever.
ADCED
NM
ML
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
3. Use renewables
4. Be involved
What We Can Do
Individual ActionsIndividual Actions
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
3. Use renewables
4. Be involved
1. Conserve
2. Consume efficiently
3. Use renewables
4. Be involvedwww.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
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Measuring Your Carbon Footprint
Major Carbon Contributors:
Electric consumption
Gas/heating oil consumption
Car and miles driven
Miles flown
ORV use
Average Alaskan Carbon Footprint = 24,000 pounds
www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an IndividualConservation Measures:
Walk, bike, ride public transit, or carpool
Make sure your tires are fully inflated and your car tuned up Lower your water heater and
home thermostats Don't preheat your oven Only run your dishwasher with
full loads Reduce your shower length and temperature Buy locally produced food—look
for the Alaska Grown Logo Unplug appliances not in use Turn off lights when leaving a room Use recycled paper Reuse or recycle as much as you can Cut down on consumerism
What We Can Do
Conservation: Three ExamplesUnplug Appliances Vampires! 43 billion kWH lost/year in U.S. Estimated savings =
1,000 lbs/year/person
Pump Up Tires 4 million gallon of gas wasted
daily in U.S. Extends life of tires by 25% Estimated savings =
1,000 lbs/year/person
Lower Thermostat 2 degrees OR 6 degrees for 8 hours/day Estimated savings =
2000 lbs/year/person
What We Can Do
Making a Difference as an Individual
Energy Efficiency Reduce your home’s heat and
energy loses Replace incandescent lights with fluorescents Replace your appliances with “energy star” rated appliances Buy a hybrid car
Renewables Install renewable energy systems:
wind, solar, geothermal, in-stream hydro
Use biofuels
Carbon Neutral Carbon offsets – Denali Green Tags
Be Heard!
What We Can Do
Energy Efficiency: Two Examples
Compact Fluorescents Four to six times
more efficient Estimated savings =
100 lbs/year for each bulb converted
Hybrid Cars Save money on fuel Tax credit Estimated savings =
5,600 lbs/year
What We Can Do
Photo ©
2002 Robert G
lenn Ketchum
Courtesy of A
laska Conservation F
oundation
SummarySummary
We are at ground zero.
We are the “Paul Revere” of global warming.
Alaska contributes in unique ways to the earth’s natural and cultural heritage, and this heritage is imperiled.
Our leaders matter.
If we do not act…..
Matters in the Global Warming CrisisMatters in the Global Warming Crisis
Why AlaskaWhy Alaska
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Thank YouThank You
Deborah L. WilliamsAlaska Conservation [email protected]
Deborah L. WilliamsAlaska Conservation [email protected]
JRAGlo
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www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
For further information:
Deborah L. WilliamsAlaska Conservation Solutions308 G Street, Suite 219Anchorage, AK [email protected](907) 929-9370www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com
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Presentation produced by Jennifer R. AllenAlaska Digital Graphics, Anchorage
Jennifer [email protected] (907) 360-2881PO Box 212806Anchorage, Alaska 99521
For technical assistance please contact:
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We thank the following scientists and researchers for generous provision of data and figures presented here, and for valuable discussions and other assistance:
Ed Berg Cook Inlet Keeper Paul Hennon Richard Kocan Peter Larsen Tom Osterkamp James Overland Jonathan Overpeck Vladimir Romanovsky Chris Rose Mark Willette Woods Hole Research Center
Scientific Contributors
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Photographic Contributors
Adams River Salmon Society http://www.salmonsociety.com/ Toby Anungazuk, Jr., Golovin Alaska Conservation Foundation http://www.akcf.org*Alaska Department of Community & Economic Development www.dced.state.ak.us/apl/home.cfm*Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.dec.state.ak.us/ Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium http://www.anthc.org/index.cfm Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 http://www.amap.no/acia/*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology http://www.afip.org/vetpath/WSC/WSC95/95wsc18.htm Gary Braasch http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/*Bureau of Land Management http://www.nifc.gov/gallery/ Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194 Deep Blue Dive Shop, Utila, Honduras http://www.deepblueutila.com/ Kelly Eningowuk, Shishmaref Environmental Defense http://www.environmentaldefense.org E.R. Keeley, University of British Columbia Robert Glenn Ketchum http://www.robertglennketchum.com/ Barbara Logan [email protected] Gary Luhm http://www.garyluhm.com/*NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/
We gratefully acknowledge the photographs made available by:
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Photographic Contributors (cont.)
*National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/*National Weather Service Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/ Ocean Research, Inc., Honolulu http://www.ocean-research.com/ Alan Parkinson, CDC Anchorage Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.westnilevirus.gc.ca Robert Puschendorf The 7 Summits http://7summits.com/ The Age, Melbourne. http://www.theage.com.au The Nome Nugget http://www.nomenugget.com*USDA Forest Service http://www.forestryimages.org/*US Fish and Wildlife Service http://www.fws.gov/*US Geological Survey http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/photos.asp Web Portal of Bangladesh http://www.ourbangla.com Tony Weyiouanna, Sr., Shishmaref Richard Wilson, Harvard University
Copyright and intellectual property rights for all photographs, graphics, figures and maps in this presentation are retained by their respective creators or owners as indicated. Please contact them directly for permission to use their property and/or guidelines on permitted usage. *Public domain source exceptions are asterisked.
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© 2006 Alaska Conservation Solutions. This presentation is the intellectual property of the author. Permission is granted for the presentation to be freely shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission of the author. Please contact the author if you plan to deliver the presentation orally to a public audience.
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