Alan RezekAlan RezekNational Weather Association Annual National Weather Association Annual

MeetingMeetingOctober 17, 2006October 17, 2006

WHYWHY• NWS has forecaster resources (100+ offices), local expertise and tools to forecast high resolution space and time

• Private sector has analysis, interpretation and distribution expertise to use high resolution forecast data to provide services

WHYWHY• NWS has been making investments. Higher resolution modeling, WFO local high resolution model capability, increased frequency of model runs and local WFO model diagnostic capability, etc. have all been developed and are available to forecasters over the last several years.

• With a new level of services in place with ESTO, we will be positioned to use improved technology & organizational structure to take us to a second level of services by 2015.

• 12 to 18 Hour forecast focus• High Detail in space• Stress being deterministic as possible• Hourly Grids – High detail in time

• Aviation forecast grids (ceiling and visibility) • Repeated three hour forecast preparation cycle

• Analysis, model/guidance interpretation, build forecast grids, transmit forecast

• Modified shift activities to have at least one forecaster dedicated 24/7 to short term forecast activities

•Focus off text onto meteorology• Prioritized forecaster efforts to maximize service through detail

• increase emphasis on our role as detailed forecast data service providers• decrease emphasis on private role of creating “desirable, pleasant, focused use” text information

• Full Automation of many text products from grids: AFM, PFM, SFP, FWF

• 90% Automation of 4 “primary” text products from grids

• Alerted when produced – checked and sent• Adjusted wording to better facilitate computer generation and better match the role of the 4 “primary” text products in an operation oriented to high resolution forecast data.

• ZFP: 4/day, Low detail, 1 Cnty/1 Zn, for general use• NOW: 8/day, 1 Cnty/1 Zn, four 3 hr periods, high detail text for short term decision making (next 12 hours)• NWR ZFP: Every 3HRs, 3 HR detail 1st 12 hrs, 6 hr detail period 2 and 3, then 12 hour detail, both general use and short term decision making text• TAF: data extracted from grids; TAFs are formatted, finalized and sent every 6 hours, updated every 3 hours

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term

• Consolidate and organize data and information availability to forecasters for their use to meet ESTO expectations

• Improve high resolution model data availability• Develop model diagnostic techniques to assist in preparing high detail forecasts

• Improve forecaster performance feedback• focus on short term forecast operations• real time/next day

Three Primary Components

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term

* Improved MESONET* Improved MESONETCAPTURED ALL AVAILABLE DATAADDED RIDGETOP SITE AT NWRCOORDINATED WV IFLOWS

MESONET2 MET SENSOR

SYSTEMS/COUNTYEXPANDED LOCAL LAPS DOMAIN

FOR IMPROVED LOCAL MODELING

INCREASED LAPS RESOLUTION - 5KM

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term• LOCAL SHORT RANGE MODELS/FCSTS

* WSETA FORECAST EVERY 6 HOURSHRLY OUT 18 HR, 15KM RESOLUTION

* SHIFTED FINANCIAL RESOURCES TO CREATEA CLUSTER TO SUPPORT LOCAL WRF

* WRF FORECAST EVERY 3 HOURSHOURLY OUT 18 HR, 5KM RESOLUTIONHIGH LOW LEVEL LAYER RESOLUTIONINCLUDE PBZ (BACKUP PARTNER) IN

DOMAIN“HOT START” INITIALIZING ON LAPSEXPERIMENTED WITH “LOCAL”

PRODUCEDFIELDS

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term• Worked to assure availability and reliability of other operational short range and aviation models

• HOURLY SHORT TERM MOS (LAMP)• HOURLY FORECASTS EVERY 3 HR• FWC BASED• MAV BASED

• RUC40 AND RUC13• NCV

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term• High Resolution model data made available in AWIPS and GFE (2.5 KM)• Enhanced the role of GFE in forecasting

• Developed diagnostic capabilities and output

• EX - Individual model diagnosis and short term model consensus forecasts of hourly precipitation, severe potential, winter weather

• Developed SMART tools for the preparation of high detail forecasts in space and time– EX – fog in individual valleys/individual hours

SCIENCESCIENCEForFor

Short TermShort Term• Real time model & Forecaster first period temperature and POP verification data

• Available in AWIPS at end of first period• Verification data for each model and the forecaster• 2 and 10 day trends/rankings for each model and WFO

• Higher resolution POP verification developed• 3 hour sub period of 12 hour forecast period

• Local MOS and consensus MOS developed for 1st period• Review of verification of NDFD elements by hour undertaken and feedback provided to forecasters• Verification developed for station, forecast team and individual

0115 PM Exploring a New Approach to Improving Severe Weather Warning Lead Times Using GFE. Andy Roche, NOAA/NWS Charleston, WV.

0830 AM Generation and Application of Gridded Aviation Forecast Parameters in GFE and AvnFPS.Chris Leonardi, NOAA/NWS Charleston, WV.

Thursday

For more details regarding the aviation activities

For more details regarding the use of GFE for model diagnostics

Percent Improvement Max/Min Percent Improvement Max/Min over MAVover MAV

January through SeptemberJanuary through SeptemberTraditional Period 1Traditional Period 1

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2004 2005

CRWHTSPKBCKBEKNBKW

First Year Short Term

Percent Improvement Max/Min over Percent Improvement Max/Min over MAVMAV

Traditional Period 1Traditional Period 1

-10

-5

05

1015

20

2530

35

6/ 05-8/ 05

9/ 05-11/ 05

12/ 05-2/ 06

3/ 06-5/ 06

6/ 06-7/ 06

CRWHTSPKBCKBEKNBKW

• First convective season exceptional• Second convection season no improvement• First winter season good improvement

Brier ScoresBrier ScoresJune ‘05 through July ‘06June ‘05 through July ‘06

Traditional Period 1Traditional Period 1

0.08

0.085

0.09

0.095

0.1

0.105

0.11

0.115

0.12

0.125

MAV RLX

CRWHTSPKBCKBEKNBKWAvg

Zero being perfect

Aviation POD IFR FY ‘06Aviation POD IFR FY ‘06

00.050.1

0.150.2

0.250.3

0.350.4

0.450.5

Oct-Jul Fall-Winter Spring- Summer

POD 05POD 06

Essentially about the same as the previous year

Aviation FAR IFR FY ‘06Aviation FAR IFR FY ‘06

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

Oct-Jul Oct-Feb Mar-Jul

FAR 05FAR 06

Large improvement over previous year

• 15 to 20 representatives from varied WFO user groups

• Ex. Aviation, Education, Construction, Media• They provide periodic feedback regarding services forming a “core” for a service verification program • They provide feedback regarding specific issues (ie. NWR, river forecast services)

What is the place of detail in the forecast?

• Web products most used: Radar, AHPS, Hourly Wx Graph, Point and click forecast – Products with high detail in space and time

• POPs of highest value to users: zero and 60 to 100 percent

• POPs of lowest value to users: 10-50 percent

• Ease of getting a detailed forecast on our web site = 4.1 out of 5 (being best)

• Difficult to overcome organizational “can’t” biased culture and belief system which says: “we are not that good”, “we can’t predict summertime convection”, etc.

• Historic examples where believing few overcame “can’t”: QPF, river forecasts based on QPF, hourly grid forecasts

• Challenging for forecasters to change forecasting approach

• Getting forecasters to shift from traditional “big period” approach of model interpretation• Getting forecasters to use new forecast models/tools• Getting forecasters to forecast more deterministically

• Forecaster continuously engaged in short term during shift: lose of touch with long term, no training/focal pt “extra time”

•During complex short term weather, Lead Forecaster must delegate “overseer” role or remove themselves from the short term desk

• Collaboration difficult in rapidly changing situation

• Days 4 through 7 forecasting taking from short term forecasting time

• Poor cost/benefit for time spent forecasting for days 4 thru 7 relative to forecasting in short term

• Lack of good low level modeling for aviation

• ESTO technology dependent, susceptible to failure

• Meso Networks, Local modeling, Network speed

SOO – Jeffrey.Hovis@NOAA.gov

WCM - Daniel.Bartholf@NOAA.gov

MIC – Alan.Rezek@NOAA.gov

IT – Kevin.Mcgrath@NOAA.gov

Enhanced Short Term ForecastsEnhanced Short Term ForecastsDeterministicDeterministic

Where it is and is notWhere it is and is not

When it is and is notWhen it is and is notNew forecast New forecast every 3 hoursevery 3 hours

7 AM/PM7 AM/PM

10 AM/PM10 AM/PM

1 AM/PM1 AM/PM

4 AM/PM4 AM/PM

FocusFocus

Hourly Weather in first 12 Hourly Weather in first 12 to 24 hoursto 24 hours

Additional Thoughts on WHYAdditional Thoughts on WHY

• Customers have good detail for decision making• A better warning service/advance notice in both space and time of specific threat areas• With automation of text, more time to focus on, and provide, detail in the forecast• Skill/verification improves with more focus on detail in short term •Focus on the area in the forecast process where the technology and availability of the human/forecast resources of the NWS can enhance the information to the private sector for their use. • Additional aviation services available with aviation grids

Cost/Benefit ratio high with high detail forecasts

• July 04 – WFO Enhanced Short Term Team established• Aug 04-Mar 05 – Put in place hardware and software requirements, conducted training• Mar 05 – Began Enhanced Short Term Operations (ESTO)• Aug-Sep 05 - Put in place software requirements, conducted training for aviation grids• Oct 05 – Added aviation grids to ESTO

Available to forecasters when they return to work the next day

THIS WRKVER PRODUCT COMPARES MOS FCSTS WITH CCF AND OBS DATA IN THE RTP RANKINGS LISTED AT THE BOTTOM VERIFICATION PRODUCT CREATED: 09/21/2006 at 13:00 UTC QUICK VIEW - ONE DAY MINIMUM BIASES FOR SELECT MODELS:

STN OBS CCF BIAS MAV BIAS MET BIAS FLP(L) BIAS LMOS BIAS --- --- --- ---- --- ---- --- ---- ----- ---- --- ---- BKW 37 | 37 0 | 35 -2 | 39 2 | 42 5 | 36 -1CKB 41 | 41 0 | 40 -1 | 43 2 | 999 MM | 42 1CRW 43 | 42 -1 | 38 -5 | 44 1 | 45 2 | 44 1EKN 41 | 39 -2 | 36 -5 | 38 -3 | 999 MM | 39 -2HTS 40 | 41 1 | 37 -3 | 43 3 | 44 4 | 44 4 PKB 41 | 40 -1 | 38 -3 | 41 0 | 44 3 | 42 1 --- --- --- --- ---ABS SUMS: 5 | 19 | 11 | 14 | 10

...CCF-MOS Rankings...(ABS)2 DAY RANK: 10 DAY RANK: ----------- ------------

1. CCF 1.83 1. CCF 1.702. MOS 2.08 2. CON 1.80 3. FLE 2.25 3. MOS 1.80 4. MEX 2.25 4. MET 1.90 5. FLL 2.50 5. MEX 1.98 6. FWC 2.50 6. FWC 2.18 7. CON 2.60 7. MAV 2.35 8. MET 2.92 8. FLL 2.58 9. MAV 3.33 9. MEN 2.72 10. MEN 3.67 10. FLE 2.80

THIS WRKPOP PRODUCT PROVIDES POPS SCORES FOR MOS AND CCF FCSTS RANKINGS LISTED AT THE BOTTOM VERIFICATION PRODUCT CREATED: 09/21/2006 at 13:00 UTC QUICK VIEW - ONE DAY POP VALUES AND VERIFICATIONS FOR SELECT MODELS:

STN PCP? CCF BIAS MAV BIAS MET BIAS FLP BIAS FWC BIAS --- --- --- ---- --- ---- --- ---- --- ---- --- ---- BKW N | 5 5 | 6 6 | 10 10 | 0 0 | 0 0 CKB N | 5 5 | 5 5 | 11 11 | 2 2 | 0 0CRW N | 5 5 | 6 6 | 10 10 | 1 1 | 0 0EKN N | 5 5 | 6 6 | 14 14 | 1 1 | 0 0HTS N | 0 0 | 6 6 | 9 9 | 2 2 | 0 0PKB N | 0 0 | 5 5 | 10 10 | 0 0 | 0 0 --- --- --- --- --- ABS SUMS: 20 | 34 | 64 | 6 | 0

BRIER SCORES FOR ALL SITES:2 DAY RANK: 10 DAY RANK: ------------ ----------- 1. MOS 0.0000 1. MET 0.0946 2. FLL 0.0020 2. CCF 0.0959 3. FLE 0.0021 3. CON 0.0973 4. MEN 0.0063 4. MOS 0.1000 5. CCF 0.0083 5. FWC 0.10326. FWC 0.0095 6. MAV 0.1042 7. MAV 0.0112 7. MEN 0.1048 8. MEX 0.0150 8. FLE 0.1072 9. CON 0.0150 9. MEX 0.1147 10. MET 0.0296 10. FLL 0.1149

THE WRKTHR PRODUCT COMPARES POP FCSTS FROM THE PAST DAY WITH OBSERVED DATA AT VARIOUS GAGE SITES FOR THREE HOUR PERIODS..15Z PACKAGE.

For ALL SITES/ALL TIMES:

OverFcst UnderFcst MidPOP HitsPcp HitsNoPcp #/% #/% #/% #/% #/% ------- --------- ------- -------- --------- 3842/39.80 | 435/70.96 | 3494/34.03 | 178/29.04 | 5811/60.20

FOR SITE: 8137:

DaysBack OverFcst UnderFcst MidPOP HitsPcp HitsNoPcp #/% #/% #/% #/% #/% ------- --------- ------- -------- --------- --------

10 5/12.82 | 2/50.00 | 6/13.95 | 2/50.00 | 34/87.18 30 36/31.30 | 9/50.00 | 42/31.58 | 9/50.00 | 79/68.70 90 140/35.81 | 30/69.77 | 152/35.02 | 13/30.23 | 251/64.19

FOR SITE: 1234:……….Breakdown by 3 hour period also planned

Percent Improvement over MAVPercent Improvement over MAVJune ‘05 through July ‘06June ‘05 through July ‘06

Period 2Period 2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jun '05 - Jul '06

CRWHTSPKBCKBEKNBKW

Brier ScoresBrier ScoresJune ‘05 through July ‘06June ‘05 through July ‘06

Period 2Period 2

0.08

0.085

0.09

0.095

0.1

0.105

0.11

0.115

0.12

0.125

MAV RLX

CRWHTSPKBCKBEKNBKWAVG

Zero being perfect

Y - Short Term (12-24 hr) Z - Long Term Winter

H - Short TermJ – Extended (Day 4-7)/ExtraK - “Mid Term” (Period 2 or 3 thru Day 3)

SummerH - Short TermJ - Extended then “Mid Term”L – Assist with forecast/Extra/Convection

Q - Short Term

10 forecasters

By going to grids we have increased the services to the aviation community without

adversely impacting TAF forecasts

Ability Of Atmosphere to Support Severe Ability Of Atmosphere to Support Severe Weather Each Hour As Created in GFEWeather Each Hour As Created in GFE