alan berube brookings institution. nationally, suburbs have become home to the largest and fastest...
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Alan BerubeBrookings Institution
College and Career Readiness in the
Context of Growing Suburban Poverty in
the Seattle Area
Nationally, suburbs have become home to the largest and fastest growing poor population
Source: Brookings analysis of decennial census and 2013 American Community Survey 1-yr Estimates data
NOTE: The federal poverty threshold for a family of four was $23,550 in 2013
1970 1980 1990 2000 20130
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
Cities Suburbs
The trend has been even more pronounced in the Seattle metropolitan area
Source: Brookings analysis of decennial census and 2013 American Community Survey 1-yr Estimates data
NOTE: The federal poverty threshold for a family of four was $23,550 in 2013
1970 1980 1990 2000 20130
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
The fastest growth in the poor population took place in suburban King County
Source: Brookings analysis of 2000 decennial census and 2013 American Community Survey 1-year Estimates data
+42,000
+77,000
+36,000
+5,000
+26,000 +6,000
Change in Poor Population, 2000 to 2013
0% to 20%
40% to 60%80% to 100%Over 100%
0% to 20%
40% to 60%
80% to 100%
100%+
But poverty did not grow evenly throughout the county
Source: Brookings analysis of 2000 decennial census and 2012 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates data
Poverty Rate 2000
0% to 10%
10% to 20%
20% to 30%
30% to 40%
Above 40%
Poverty Rate, 2000
Source: Brookings analysis of 2000 decennial census and 2012 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates data
But poverty did not grow evenly throughout the county
Poverty Rate 2008-12
0% to 10%
10% to 20%
20% to 30%
30% to 40%
Above 40%
Poverty Rate, 2008-12
Seattle Auburn Burien Federal Way
Kent Renton SeaTac Tukwila
12% 11%9% 9%
12%
9%
13%10%
14%16%
20%
16% 17%
13%
21%
25%
2000 2009-13
Poverty rates spiked in several South King County cities
South King County also saw the number of jobs near the typical resident decline between 2000 and 2012
Key Challenges
Transit Access
Strained Local Services
Limited Philanthropic Resources
Change in School Populations
Belle
vue
Redm
ond
Issa
quah
Snoq
ualm
ie
Seat
tle
Kirk
land
Shor
elin
e
Bothe
ll
Map
le V
alle
y
Rento
n
Covin
gton
Fede
ral W
ayKe
nt
Burie
n
Aubur
n
Des M
oine
s
Tukw
ila
Black
Dia
mon
d
SeaT
ac
69 68 67 66 64 62
51 51
4540 38
36 35 33 33 3329 29
26
Educational attainment distributes unequally across King County’s cities
Share of adults with post-secondary degree, 2009-13
Higher levels of post-secondary attainment are still strongly linked to higher lifetime earnings
Less than HS
HS diploma
Some college
Associate's
Bachelor's
Master's
Doctoral
Professional
$973,000
$1,304,000
$1,547,000
$1,727,000
$2,268,000
$2,671,000
$3,252,000
$3,648,000
Source: Carnevale, Rose, and Cheah, “The College Payoff” (2011).
College graduate High school graduate
16%30%
17%
24%26%
18%21%
16%
20%12%
Top Quintile at age 40FourthThirdSecondBottom quintile at age 40
College completion increases upward mobility for low-income Americans
Born into bottom quintile
Source: Reeves (2014)
Family income remains a strong predictor of completing a post-secondary degree/credential
7.3%Less than
High School
14.3%High
School Diploma
23.1%Some
College/No Degree
28.2%Associate’s
61%Master’s
73%Doctoral
83%Professional
Bachelor’sDegreeMedian
LifetimeEarnings
Occupation also matters greatly—workers with somewhat less education who work in high-paying fields can earn more than workers with more education
Source: Carnevale, Rose, and Cheah, “The College Payoff” (2011).
Demand for higher education and STEM skills in the Seattle region is very high compared to other regions
Source: Rothwell, “Still Searching” (2014)
59% 47% 36%Share of job
openings requiring post-secondary degree, 2012
Rank: 5th of 100
Share of job openings requiring STEM skills, 2013
Rank: 10th of 100
Share of job openings requiring
STEM skills and bachelor’s, 2013
Rank: 12th of 100
Seattle metro area data on job openings and education demand
King County has relied heavily on migrants to boost the ranks of its educated workers
King County—74%Rank: 25th of 100
Share of bachelor’s holders born in state of residence, 100 largest counties, 2013
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44%
26%27%
8%
35%
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29%
0.19122180.2077235
0.1124219
0.21809520.2306889
0.1893318
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4-year institutions2-year institutions
The region’s post-secondary institutions differ in their graduates’ preparedness to hold jobs in STEM fields
K-12 and post-secondary institutions can also consider how their curricula prepare students for key industry clusters in different parts of King County
1 Dot = 1 Job
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Professional Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Initiatives here and elsewhere are addressing suburban poverty by boosting educational opportunity
Economic
Development
Post-secondary transitions
Place-BasedSkill Building
K-12
Regional
Sector-Specific
Adult Education
Early ChildhoodImmigrant
Integration
Sub-Regional
The work of the Coalition and the Road Map Project provide critical “north stars” for other supportive efforts
1. This region exhibits a dramatic increase in suburban poverty, posing special challenges for educators
2. Evidence remains strong that success in higher education is the critical pathway out of poverty
3. In addition to more education, what you study matters for economic outcomes, and STEM skills are highly valued in this region
4. Coordinating efforts of the Coalition and the Road Map are national models and critical for keeping everyone focused on the “big stuff”
Final thoughts
While high-wage jobs are densely clustered, low-wage jobs are present throughout the region
Jobs by Wage Level1 Dot = 1 Job
> $40,000 per year
< $15,000 per year