‘LAC, LOC and Inside’ ‘LAC, LOC and Inside’

Sameer Patil

Associate Fellow in National Security, Ethnic Conflict and Terrorism Studies

� Mumbai-based foreign policy

think tank

� Membership-based,

independent, non-partisan

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Region focus

Asia Africa

South Asia Europe

East Asia West Asia

Central Asia Americas

� India-China tensions on the Line of Actual

Control in Ladakh

� Recent India-Pakistan skirmishes on the Line

of Control

Outline of presentation

of Control

� Internal security situation in J&K

� What to expect in 2014?

� Increase in

frequency of

Chinese

incursions

� China’s attempt

India-China tensions on the LAC

� China’s attempt

to create new

facts on ground

� Depsang

intrusionSource: India Defence Review

Map of Kashmir and areas showing LAC and LOC

� PLA’s focus on Chumar

sector

� India developing

border infrastructure

Chinese intrusions in Chumar

� China’s proposal for

Border Defence

Cooperation Agreement

Depsang and Chumar

Source: India Defence Review

ChumarChumar

� China asserting

territorial claims in

the region

� China takes a long

view of history

Looking at China’s grand strategy

© Getty Images

view of history

� Protracted border

dispute negotiations

between India and

China

China’s new leadership at the NPC meeting in Beijing

� Killing of Indian soldiers

in Poonch

� Discovery of cross-

border tunnel in Samba

India-Pakistan skirmishes on LOC

� Increase in ceasefire

violations

Year Ceasefire

violations

2010 44

2011 51

2012 93

2013 (till July ) 33

Source: Lok Sabha

Source: Mapsofworld.com

India-Pakistan LoC

Cross-border infiltration

� Rise in militant

infiltration

� Most infiltration

activities in north

Kashmir

Year Attempts Killed Returned Successful

2010 489 112 281 95

2011 247 35 159 52

2012 264 13 130 121

Kashmir

� Terrorist

infrastructure in

Pakistan and POK

remains intact

Source: Lok Sabha

© NYT

Indian troops patrol LoC in north Kashmir

� Flux situation

after Afzal Guru’s

execution

� Agitational

politics of

Situation in J&K

politics of

separatists and

Pakistan’s support

� Abject failures on

governance front© Showkat Shafi

A stonepelter and security forces in Srinagar

� Targeting of the

security forces and

Panchayat members

� Local recruitment in

terrorist ranks

Security situation in J&K

terrorist ranks

� Situation in Jammu© Hindu

Security forces take position during an encounter in Sopore

� Warnings of

increase in violence

from Pakistani

militant leaders

� Spillover of unstable

What to expect in 2014?

© Samaa TV

� Spillover of unstable

situation in

Afghanistan on J&K

� India-Pakistan

relations A Difa e Pakistan rally in Lahore

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