al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2016 part 19-122-russia-10-70

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 19-122-Russia-10-70

NATO forces in the Baltic region are not sufficiently equipped and not ready to undertake protection operations in the Baltic Sea. The three Baltic States’ navies are able to conduct constabulary operations in territorial waters and sometimes in their EEZs as well as contribute to coastal defense. But these small forces lack the ability to participate in power projection operations. While the Baltic navies’ mine countermeasure capabilities and competencies are well known inside NATO, they will need to develop additional network centric warfare capabilities to more fully contribute to their self-defense and boost their role within the coalition. In particular, all three Baltic navies lack sufficient abilities to carry out information exchange and maritime situational awareness. If successfully developed, these capacities would seriously ease regional cooperation with NATO’s “heavy assets” in the Baltic.

Slavic Brotherhood 2016 The extermination of terrorists, airdrops and drone missions have been successfully performed by Russian, Serbian and Belarusian troops during joint drills in Serbia. New airdroppable medical equipment has also seen action for the first time. The active phase of the anti-terrorist drills successfully concluded on November 9. Troops practiced parachute landings, marching, live firing, assaults on the bases of simulated terrorists, reconnaissance with the use on unmanned aerial vehicles, the evacuation of the wounded, bomb disposal and other activities. “Russian military transport aviation has fulfilled all the tasks in the active phase of the drills. "Personnel and vehicles have been transported to the drop points swiftly and precisely, despite harsh weather conditions,” Deputy Commander of Russian military aviation Colonel Vasili Galiy said on Saturday. Along with Russian troops, 450 Serbian servicemen and 50 Belarusian ones participated in the drills. Cooperation between Russian and Serbian paratroopers begun during the SREM 2014 drills in Serbia. Slavic Brotherhood exercises were held for the first time near the southern Russian city of Novorossiysk last year. This year, the drills' organisation and command were the Serbian Ministry of Defense's responsibility.

Impact of Georgian Parliamentary Elections on Relations With RussiaPublication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 181By: Giorgi Menabde November 10, 2016

The occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Source: grass.org.ge)Following the second round of the parliamentary elections on October 30, the ruling party, Georgian Dream–Democratic Georgia (GDDG), received a constitutional majority—over three-quarters of the seats in the new parliament. The opposition party of former president Mikheil Saakashvili, United National Movement (UNM), will have only 27 members of parliament against the 115 of the ruling party. Other pro-Western parties—Republicans and Free Democrats—suffered a crushing defeat and fragmented or ceased to exist completely (Newsgeorgia.ge, November 3).

The opposition fears that the authorities will use their large advantage in the parliament to change Georgia’s foreign policy from a pro-Western to a pro-Russian course. “GDDG is controlled by the Russian [sic] oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is acting in the interests of Vladimir Putin, not Georgia,” UNM parliamentarian Nugzar Tsiklauri claimed (Author’s interview, November 7). His colleague and member of the UNM Political Council, David Darchiashvili, believes that the latest developments in Russian-Georgian relations, including certain statements by Russian officials as well as some actions by the Georgian authorities, “already give reasons for serious doubts and suspicion in this regard” (Author’s interview, November 7).

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The pro-Western opposition in Georgia was alarmed by a recent statement made by the head of the Russian State Duma’s Committee for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Eurasian Integration and Communications with Compatriots, Leonid Kalashnikov. The Russian official stated that the results of the October parliamentary elections in Georgia “created the chance for a resumption of inter-parliamentary dialogue” and that “consultations regarding this are already underway.” Kalashnikov said, “We are considering how to make this happen,” adding that the Russian side intends to propose to the Georgian parliament holding a joint Russian-Georgian parliamentary session to discuss bilateral problems. Regarding the overwhelming victory of GDDG over Saakahsvili’s UNM party, he declared, “The primary thing is that the [Georgian] policy based on confrontation [with Russia] was defeated and a chance to resume relations between our countries has appeared” (Sputnik-georgia.ru, November 1).

On November 3, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin lectured the Georgian side for “not being prepared to resume diplomatic relations with Russia.” He concluded, “I constantly tell the special representative of the prime minister of Georgia for relations with Russia, Zurab Abashidze, about such incidents [of Tbilisi ‘sinking’ back into anti-Russian rhetoric] in the course of our ongoing dialogue” (RIA Novosti, November 3).

Last month, Abashidze stated that Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili and the Georgian authorities as a whole “do not envisage the possibility of restoring diplomatic relations with Russia until Russia retracts its illegal recognition of the so-called ‘independence’ of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” which he called a “red line.” He declared that “during the dialogue with [his Russian counterpart in bilateral talks] Grigory Karasin, we only discuss economic, trade and humanitarian issues. That is, only the issues that we can resolve without crossing our red lines” (Author’s interview, October 9).

Members of parliament from the ruling party dismissed the claims that they were carrying out “consultations” with their Russian counterparts. “[T]hey are impossible while Russia occupies our territories,” the chairman of the parliamentary Committee on Defense and Security, Irakly Sessiashvili, told this author on October 28. Sessiashvili specifically raised Moscow’s continuing “unfriendly actions,” which it was undertaking in parallel to bilateral talks about “restoring diplomatic ties and inter-parliamentary dialogue.” In particular, Sessiashvili recalled the decision of the Russian Ministry of Defense to sign contracts with residents of occupied South Ossetia to serve in the military as well as setting up a “united military group of Russia and Abkhazia” (Kommersant, October 26; Author’s interview, October 28). Similarly, GDDG parliamentary deputy Zachary Kutsnashvili noted that “Russian embassies in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali [the capitals of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, respectively]” are obstacles that prevent Tbilisi from restoring diplomatic ties with Moscow. “Once Russia agrees that there is only one embassy of Russia in Georgia—in Tbilisi—all obstacles to


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restoring our relations in full will immediately disappear,” he stated (Author’s interview, November 2).

However, the opposition asserts that the ruling party’s actions speak louder than words. One of the leaders of UNM, Sergo Ratiani, pointed out that several days ago “the GDDG delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe [PACE] refused to support the resolution [on Ukraine’s territorial integrity], which Moscow detested” (Author’s interview, November 6). The head of the parliamentary majority and a member of the Georgian delegation to PACE, Zviad Kvachantiradze, explained that the Ukrainian delegation “did not indicate sufficient effort on their side to gain their Georgian colleagues’ support to vote for this resolution” (Interpressnews.ge, October 13).

Georgian authorities realize that Mikheil Saakashvili might use accusations of “changing the country’s foreign policy orientation” as a serious tool of political pressure against the GDDG. Saakashvili remains the leader of the Georgian opposition despite his political career in Ukraine. Therefore, GDDG demonstrates it is prepared to take steps toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union. In November, joint NATO-Georgian military exercises will take place in the suburbs of the Georgian capital (Armenpress.am, November 7). Georgia’s Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze stated that the government “welcomes the increasing presence of NATO on the Black Sea” and is prepared to support the activities of the Alliance in the region (Golos-ameriki.ru, October 28).

Military expert and a former aide to the Georgian representative office at NATO, Vakhtang Maisaya, argued that he sees no visible indicators of a changing Georgian foreign policy course. Rather, he stressed that the question is “how much the West itself, including NATO, is prepared to do to achieve greater integration of Georgia into the Alliance. Unfortunately, for example, at the NATO Warsaw Summit, no decision was taken on establishing a joint [Black Sea] naval group according to the formula ‘28+2,’ with the participation of Georgia and Ukraine. NATO refuses to give our country a Membership Action Plan [MAP], which would signify a move from the third to the fourth level of integration with the organization,” Dr. Maisaya said (Author’s interview, November 2). According to Irakly Aladashvili, the editor-in-chief of the military analysis journal Arsenali, “The United States, United Kingdom and other NATO countries increasingly often hold military exercises on Georgian soil. They use increasingly powerful military equipment in those exercises, such as the Abrams main battle tank and the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle” (Author’s interview, November 6).

David Avalishvili, an analyst with the news analysis agency GHN, also does not expect Georgia to shift from a pro-Western to a pro-Russian foreign policy orientation. “[A]ll of the country’s political establishment is oriented toward the West […] and a policy change in the direction of Russia would bring the ruling party nothing but big domestic political problems. Such a move would reinforce the opposition, which is only waiting for the slightest reason to start massive anti-government protests” (Author’s interview, November 7).

Belarus Balances Pursuit of Economic Growth With Strengthening National IdentityPublication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 180By: Grigory IoffeNovember 9, 2016 On Belarus’s eastern flank, the conflict with Russia over natural gas prices has reportedly been resolved; but the parameters of the resolution are not transparent. In the words of Belarusian Prime Minister Andrei Kobyakov, the price of gas remains $132 per 1,000 cubic meters, as


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Russia insisted, but the Belarusian side is “satisfied by the attendant decisions” (Belta.by, October 31). At the same time, a certain amount of Azerbaijani oil was delivered to the Mozyr refinery to make up for Russia’s cut in exports of crude oil to Belarus to penalize Minsk for underpaying for Russian natural gas (Belta.by, October 31). For the umpteenth time, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka declared that “a delay in establishing a common market for energy in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) does not suit us” (Naviny.by, October 28). As per Russia’s suggestion, common prices on energy across the Moscow-led economic bloc will only be set in 2025.Several other recent developments have also been undermining Belarusian-Russian economic integration. Specifically, on November 1, Russia stopped allowing passenger cars from third countries to freely enter Russia via Belarus. Immigration and customs controls do not exist on the Belarusian-Russian border, and so Russia is now demanding that foreign cars enter its territory across border crossings with such controls conducted by Russian authorities. That would imply quite a detour for Russia-bound foreign drivers crossing Belarus—either through Latvia or through Ukraine. This arrangement is an absurdity: Belarus’s borders with European Union countries already have Belarusian customs and immigration controls, while the freedom of movement of peoples across borders is enshrined in both the Belarus-Russia Union State and the EEU (of which Russia and Belarus are founding members). The limitation for cars has not yet been extended to citizens of third countries entering Russia via Belarus by trains and aircraft; but these issues are reportedly “under scrutiny” (Naviny.by, November 1). A Belarusian visa does not longer allow citizens of third countries to enter Russia and vice versa—i.e., there is no EU-style Schengen Zone equivalent in the EEU, despite the fact that this bloc has far fewer members than the European Union.Another notable development has been the growing number of Belarusians who worked abroad in Russia who are now returning to their home country. Scores have come back because wages in Russia are no longer significantly higher than in Belarus. Concurrently, 82,000 Belarusians received job authorizations in the European Union in 2016. In Belarus itself, wages look grim. From January to September, the highest monthly wages in the country were in Soligorsk district of Minsk Oblast, where potassium is extracted. There, Belarusians on average earn 1,058.4 rubles (about $557) per month. In the city of Minsk, monthly wages amounted to 1007.8 rubles ($530). But plenty of areas fall within the $250–$270 range (Naviny.by, November 1). Presumably, Belarusians who earn such small monthly wages must mainly or exclusively rely on consuming homegrown food.Belarusian exports to Russia have been shrinking overall. But one silver lining may be seen in the fact that the Minsk Truck Factory (MAZ), which for quite some time was operating at a loss, suddenly reported growth in its sales to Russian buyers: 364 trucks were sold in September, 13 percent more than in September 2015 (Tut.by, October 18). According to one popular line of thinking, Belarus should preserve its current economic model, which is dominated by large state-run businesses. However, to unleash its economic potential, the country should allow the CEOs of these state-owned enterprises to undertake risky decisions without fear of criminal prosecution and to engage in serious marketing research without having to worry about being charged with corruption (Respublika, October 21). According to an alternative opinion, most eloquently expressed by Kirill Rudyi, Belarus’s ambassador to China and a former economic advisor to the president, Belarus seriously needs to propel private businesses to a position of strength. Furthermore, he argues, the country needs good lawyers who can protect fledgling domestic businesses as well as sociologists to unmask the drivers of local consumer behavior (Tut.by, November 3). One problem with this solution is that it has already been tried, to some degree in Russia—but the results do not look attractive.Belarus’s closeness to Russia is sometimes asserted by pointing to the fact that Belarus remains one of only two post-Soviet countries that retain November 7, the anniversary of the Communist Revolution


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of 1917, as a national holiday (the other being Kyrgyzstan). Russia itself, however, no longer celebrates November 7. In his congratulatory remarks to the nation, Lukashenka underscored that the former Soviet Union set international standards in social welfare, equality, inter-ethnic consensus and achieved momentous breakthroughs in industry, agriculture, spacecraft technology, etc. The priceless experience of previous generations inspires the present population, he claimed (President.gov, November 5). Moreover, on November 7, “on the request of veterans and communists” of the Minsk Tractor Factory, a monument to Vladimir Lenin was moved from a location inside the fenced territory of the factory to its original and more visible location outside the factory’s checkpoint (Tut.by, November 5).Referring to the role of Russia in the Belarusians’ worldview, Stas Karpau, a Belarusian-language blogger, opines that his countrymen who love Russia are fixated on it, while Belarusians who dislike Russia are fixated on it even more, as they constantly repeat that Belarus is not Russia. But within such a formulation, there is little room for Belarus itself—that is, a Belarus that can exist on its own without Russia as the meaningful other, he asserts (Stas Karpau, November 4). The oversized role of Russia in Belarusians’ reflection over their own country irritates some nationalist thinkers. Thus, yet another blogger, Eduard Palchys, who was recently released from jail after being charged with inciting inter-ethnic hatred in his writing (see EDM, November 2), explained in an interview that his texts were not so much aimed against Russia. Rather, he said, his blog posts were meant to awaken Belarusians’ self-defense instinct in the face of a perceived threat to Belarusian statehood. In 2014, amidst the early stages of the growing crisis in Ukraine, most Belarusians did not see that threat and instead became easy victims of Russian propaganda (Tut.by, October 31).The recent developments in Belarus, thus, make up a kind of a jigsaw puzzle, whose overarching theme is not easy to tease out. But clearly, the lasting problem of developing Belarusian identity has grown entwined with the newer problem of overcoming the country’s economic slowdown. The government will need to employ strategic thinking to solve this puzzle.

Regards Cees on Russian ~Belarus relations remember: The Zapad 2013 (West 2013) joint strategic exercise of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus will be launched in the two countries. “On April 22-24 the Russians and their Belarussian junior allies conducted war games right on the eastern border of Poland, which is also the eastern frontier of NATO. to be more precise—rehearsed the scenario of a war with Poland on a military training ground in Brest, just across the river from the Polish-Belarussian border. Even more provocatively, the post-Soviets are planning to conduct their “Zapad [West] 2013″ war games in September, during which they allegedly intend to rehearse an invasion of the Baltic states and a “preemptive” nuclear strike against Poland’s capital, Warsaw.The Zapad 2009 Maneuvers: A Simulated Nuclear Attack on Poland 1

The Zapad 2013 Maneuvers: Thus, these “terrorists” appear to have been a deliberately misnamed surrogate for NATO. According to reports, the training scenario featured an attack and/or landing by “Baltic terrorists” targeting Belarus in which these forces held out despite numerous assaults by the Russo-Belarusian defenders. The enemy forces then fled into cities, leading to urban operations to dislodge them—hence the integration of anti-terrorist and conventional operations.

Russia’s geopolitical influence is set to be further strengthened, with two Eastern European countries expected to elect as their leaders candidates with links to Moscow and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.Voters in the former Soviet bloc nations of Bulgaria and Moldova went to the polls Sunday in their respective runoff presidential elections. The New York Times reports that in both instances, an openly 1 http://www.cicerofoundation.org/lectures/Marcel_H_Van_Herpen_RUSSIA_EMBRACE_OF_TACTICAL_NUCLEAR_WEAPONS.pdf


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pro-Russia candidate would all but certainly assume the presidency.Such an outcome could plunge the European Union in further crisis, according to Reuters, as Moldova, currently yet to become an E.U. member, could possibly end its ongoing integration efforts with the regional bloc. The Times reports that pro-Russian socialist candidate Igor Dodon has plans for a referendum on whether the country should withdraw from a 2014 political-and-trade agreement with the E.U., and instead join a Russia-led Eurasian Customs Union.The country has found itself in turmoil since revelation of massive corruption came in 2014, when over $1 billion — roughly one-eighth of the whole country’s GDP — was discovered to have vanished. Locals believe that the country’s elite, largely sympathetic to the E.U., was somehow involved this graft, according to Reuters.In Bulgaria, the apparent President-elect, Rumen Radev, is a former air-force commander without political experience. Reuters reports that his pro-Moscow, anti-immigrant campaign platform has found resonance in a country coming to grips with being the poorest member state of the E.U. He has campaigned on a promise to not let Bulgaria, which borders Turkey, become “Europe’s migrant ghetto,” according to the Times.

President of Transnistria Evgeniy Shevchuk issued a decree on making preparations to join Russia. The document is published on the website of the Transnistrian leader. Due to the decree, results of the Republican referendum of September 17, 2006, will be put into effect: the Republic will become a part of the Russian Federation. In two weeks the government should create a special committee to adjust law system of the Republic to the Russian legislation. Contradictory regulations will be excluded. The Transnistrian President will have to be provided with a specific plan on synchronization of the legislations by 1 November. As Pravda.Ru reported, Transnistria proclaimed independence from Moldova in early 1990s. Chairman of the Parliament Mikhail Burla addressed his Russian counterpart Sergey Naryshkin on behalf of the Supreme Council, asking to join Russia. In 2006 97.2% of the residents decided to join Russia at the voting. Constitutional law on recognition of the Russian legislation as part of the Transnistrian has been already adopted. The Russian language is recognized as the state one. 200,000 Russian citizens live in Transnistria. Pravda.Ru – MOSCOW, November 14. /TASS/. Results of the presidential election in Moldova demonstrate that the people have voted for rapprochement with Russia and for settlement of the Transnistria conflict, the republic’s President-elect Igor Dodon said in an interview with the Rossiya 24 television channel on Monday."For the first time in the recent seven years, all the pro-Moldova and pro-state forces have united for friendship with Russia, for neutrality, for our Orthodoxy, for the unity of the country in settling the Transnistria conflict," he said. "The first step has been made."Settlement of the Transnistria conflict at the state level in Moldova may begin in early 2017 as Transnistria elects its president, he said."My position remains unchanged," he continued. "We should grant a special status to Transnistria." A Russian legislator said on Monday the victory of the socialists’ leader Igor Dodon will help settling the problem of the republic’s relations with Transnistria."The victory at the presidential election in the Republic of Moldova of the Party of Socialists’ leader Igor Dodon may stabilize the situation in the country, improve cooperation between our countries, help in settling the overdue problems in the republic and in the relations with Transnistria," Sergei Zheleznayk (United Russia Party), a member of the lower house’s international affairs committee, said.

14 Nov 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved and instructed to sign the draft Agreement on a joint group of forces in the Caucasus region with Armenia, TASS reports.According to the project, Russia and Armenia are planning to create a joint group of forces in the


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Caucasus region.The document states that a Unified Command structure will be created to manage the force, which will be established “to ensure the security of parties in the Caucasus region.”The group’s prerogatives will include repelling any armed attack on either party, as well as defending the state borders of Armenia and Russia. Old grievances are being aired with new force in the former Soviet Union’s longest-running conflict.Armenia and Azerbaijan, technically at war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region despite a cease-fire brokered by Russia 22 years ago, are beefing up their arsenals just seven months after the worst fighting in two decades. Armenia has acquired Russian-made Iskander ballistic missiles, while Azerbaijan says it’s tested combat drones produced with Israel and is in talks with Pakistan to buy high-tech weapons.“We have a much more serious arms race,” said Zaur Shiriyev, an academy associate at Chatham House in London. “It will significantly increase the chance of future outbreaks.”The rearmament is raising the stakes should tensions flare again between Russian ally Armenia and Azerbaijan, close to NATO member Turkey, after the two neighbors spent almost $27 billion on defense in 2005-2015. The conflict, within striking distance of a BP Plc-led oil pipeline, is once more showing signs of boiling over as talks mediated by Russia and the U.S. run aground and uncertainty mounts after Donald Trump’s election as American president.

Armenians took over Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts from Azerbaijan after the 1991 Soviet breakup. The conflict killed 30,000 people and displaced more than a million. No peace accord was signed despite talks involving Russia, the U.S. and France halting major hostilities in 1994.The enclave’s mainly Armenian population declared independence in 1991, which hasn’t been recognized internationally, and insists on its right to self-determination. Azerbaijan says it’s ready to grant more autonomy than the region enjoyed during the Soviet period, but demands respect for its territorial integrity.Military MightAzerbaijan, the third-largest crude producer in the former Soviet Union, has converted its oil wealth into


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battlefield might, becoming Europe’s largest importer of major weapons in the decade through 2015 by spending $22.7 billion on the military in the period, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Its annual defense spending eclipses Armenia’s entire state budget.The largess has been a boon for companies like Uralvagonzavod, the state-run maker of battle tanks in central Russia since World War II, and Elbit Systems Ltd., Israel’s biggest publicly traded defense contractor.Violence surged in April, when more than 200 troops were killed on both sides in four days of fighting that involved hundreds of tanks and aircraft. Azerbaijan regained control of several hills lost to Armenians 23 years ago, before another Russian-engineered truce. New cease-fire violations were reported last week, which the belligerents blamed on each other.

‘Kamikaze Drones’April’s clashes featured the first known use of “kamikaze drones” by Azerbaijan, with the explosive-tipped aircraft slamming into a bus carrying Armenian volunteers. Media including Radio Free Europe claimed to have identified the weapons as Israeli-made Harop drones. The Azeri and Israeli defense ministries both declined to confirm or deny that Harops were used.Azerbaijan said in September that it would build “hundreds” of kamikaze and other combat drones using Israeli technology. Speaking on Saturday while visiting Azeri troops stationed southeast of Nagorno-Karabakh at one of the hills recaptured in April, President Ilham Aliyev said his country has already purchased modern weapons worth billions and intends to buy more. Aliyev called on Armenia to “draw lessons” from the last bout of fighting and vowed to recapture control of the breakaway region.Armenia has also bolstered its capabilities, getting a $200 million loan from Russia to buy and modernize weapons and other military equipment. In a document dated Nov. 12, President Vladimir Putin approved an agreement on creating a joint military force with Armenia and instructed officials to complete the remaining negotiations. The group, which plans to operate in the Caucasus region, will be responsible for defending the borders of Russia and Armenia and rebuffing an attack on either party.

In Cross-HairsArmenia showcased its Iskander missiles at an Independence Day parade in September in Yerevan, the capital. Stationing the short-range rockets in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s BP-operated Sangachal oil-and-gas-processing terminal south of Baku would fall within firing range. Azerbaijan has attracted more than $60 billion of investments in energy projects by BP and its partners in the past 20 years.A spokesman for Russia’s state-run arms trader Rosoboronexport, Vyacheslav Davidenko, declined to comment on any weapons provided to Armenia.Russia has stressed that is also sells military hardware to Azerbaijan. It supplied the missiles through the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a post-Soviet military alliance, according to the Vedomosti business newspaper.

Shifting Balance?“Armenia sought to use this display to deter Azerbaijan from a further attack and to demonstrate a solid position in the recently shifting military balance of power,” said Richard Giragosian, director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan. “This missile system is capable of reaching significant infrastructure and vulnerable targets in around Baku and throughout Azerbaijan. This is why the balance of power is now more equal.”Azerbaijan rejects any shift in the military balance, and Armenia’s missile display certainly hasn’t eased tensions. The Azeri Defense Ministry responded by holding drills involving Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems and threatened to retaliate with “thousands of rockets” should Armenia try to


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use “a few” of its missiles. Deadly clashes around the conflict zone resumed last month, while Azerbaijan began some of its biggest-ever military drills on Nov. 12.The military one-upmanship has complicated mediation. Talks over a settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh are deadlocked, according to Russia, which helped arrange a June meeting between the Azeri and Armenian presidents. U.S., Russian and French diplomats failed to persuade them to meet again soon.

BRITAIN is set to deploy batteries of high-precision long-range missiles on Russia’s border – a move not seen since the Cold War. The rockets are being transported to Estonia next year amid fears that Putin is planning to invade the country as tension in the Baltic region escalates.Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems capable of destroying tanks within a 45-mile range will be lined up on Russia’s border

3The missiles are set to be placed in locations on the Estonian border next year The missiles mark Britain’s contribution to NATO’s massive military build-up, which aims to beef up Baltic border defences.800 UK troops will also be deployed to Estonia next year as part of a 15-nation force, including soldiers from US, France and Denmark. With a range of up to 45 miles, the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) are capable of launching as many as 12 missiles per minute and can blow up Russian tanks with precision GPS strikes. Missile launchers bolted onto armoured vehicles fire the 200lb warheads, which will be guided towards their target with the help of 25 Royal Artillery soldiers expected to deploy to the region to operate the systems.The same rockets were used in Afghanistan from 2007 with devastating results. Roughly 410 of the missiles were fired at Taliban tunnel networks in Helmand Province. As well as the GMLRS systems, Britain is set to supply drones, RAF Typhoon jets and Challenger 2 tanks. Tensions have risen since the US election, with President Elect Donald Trump challenging a NATO Article 5 principle that commits alliance members to defending each other from military aggression. Trump suggested that US protection for the Baltic States would depend on these countries meeting NATO defence spending targets But in a statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin reassured the world that “Russia is not going to attack anyone” and claimed the allegations were just a a part of US “hysteria”. Former British Army Commander General Sir Richard Shirreff last night said he believed it is necessary for hundreds of UK troops to remain in Estonia for the for the foreseeable future in order to make a stand against


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Russian aggression. Speaking to the Mail on Sunday, he said: "Unless it is a permanent force then it is not credible. The 800-strong UK deployment is a start, but just that. I would also like to see Britain taking the lead in the protection of the Baltic States, in particular after Brexit. NATO as a whole must make a statement that it is willing and capable of defending these countries. "I fear that unless President Elect Trump reaffirms the US’s commitment to Article 5 that Russian will exploit this situation, absolutely certainly it will, and this could include Russian adventurism in the Baltic States. "Because until now the one thing that has secured European defence since the formation of NATO has been the total certainty that whichever President is elected to the White House the US will come to the aid of another member of the pact."

Regards Cees***

According to Russian and Iranian reports, Tehran is mulling a $10 billion arms deal with Moscow, to deliver T-90 tanks, artillery systems and has inked new deal with Beijing.

Moscow has quietly resumed sales of advanced arms technology to Beijing in a move that signals geopolitics and economics are trumping concerns about Chinese cloning of Russian weapons. The $2bn deal for 24 advanced Su-35 fighters jets is expected to be completed in three years. The Su-35 deal, along with a 2014 agreement to sell Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile, which could arrive in China by 2018, amounts to a lifting of an informal ban on selling advanced systems to China in place since roughly 2004.

New Delhi (Sputnik) – Furthering its defense cooperation with Russia, India is set to approve another high-value purchase from Moscow in next few weeks. Sources say that the Indian Army is interested in purchasing the latest version of 464 T-90 tanks equipped with thermal imaging night vision cameras and some additional countermeasures to significantly reduce the chances of being hit by enemy anti-tank semi-automatic guided weapons.

Russia and India signed a major arms deal on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Goa this past weekend. The deal included four major components.First, India becomes the second country after China to receive S-400 long-range air defense missiles. The agreement is for Russia to provide either 4 or 5 S-400 battalions to India. (Russian sources report the lower number, while Indian sources went with the higher one.) While a contract has not yet been signed, Russia signed a contract with China in 2014 to export four battalions for approximately $2 billion. The first systems are expected to be delivered in 2020. Second, the two sides signed an agreement for India to purchase four Project 11356 (Admiral Grigorovich class) frigates. Third, the two sides signed an agreement for India to lease an inactive Akula-class multi-purpose nuclear submarine. India is already leasing a submarine of this class from Russia, the INS Chakra (formerly known as the Nerpa), which has been in the Indian Navy since 2012. Finally, Rosoboronexport, Russian Helicopters, and the Indian company HAL have agreed to create a joint venture for the production of Ka-226T helicopters.


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