airline economics growth frontiers dublin 2017 15th...

AIRLINE ECONOMICS GROWTH FRONTIERS DUBLIN 2017

15th-18th January 2017 | Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin, Ireland

Schedule

Click the link under each talk or event to add it to your calendar.

SUNDAY 15th JANUARY 2017 12:00 until late

Engine Lease Finance welcome bar The Horseshoe Bar, Shelbourne Hotel from 12 noon Sponsored by:

7pm Reception Event

National Museum of Ireland – Archaeology iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook Sponsored by:

MONDAY 16th JANUARY 2017 08:00 Registration Open/Morning refreshments

08:25 Opening of conference - Chairman Opening Remarks

08:30 Macro-Economic & Political Dynamics The commercial aviation industry is affected and guided by macro-economic and political fluctuations but what factors have and will affect aviation in 2017? Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Flight Ascend Consultancy iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

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09:10 Fuel Prices and the Environment for Fuel Hedging A big part of the reason why aviation is so susceptible to macro-economic and political fluctuation is the reliance and basic need for fuel. Following on from the opening presentation, this panel looks at the outlook for fuel prices and asks if hedging is a good idea right now. Paul Horsnell, Head of Commodities Research, Standard Chartered / Mike Corley, Mercatus Energy Advisors iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

09:45 Global Taxation Environment Outlook for Investors in Aircraft and Engines – Plotting a Course for Lessors Tom Woods, Partner & Head of Aviation Finance & Leasing – KPMG Anne Fitzgerald, Head of Tax, GECAS / Eithne Manning, Head of Tax, SMBC / Eveleen Drohan, Head of Tax, AWAS / Jan-Willem Dekkers, Head of Tax, Aercap (waiting clearance) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

10:25 Morning Break Sponsored by:

10:40 Keynote Address

Gerry Laderman, SVP Finance, Procurement & Treasurer, United Airlines Inc.

iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

11:20 Cape Town Convention – Update on Global Ratification, Implication and Compliance Moderator: Jeffrey Wool, Secretary General, Aviation Working Group (AWG) Panel: Claude Brandes, Vice President of Customer Finance, Airbus / Daniel C. da Silva, Vice President, Strategic Regulatory Policy, Boeing Capital Corporation iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

12:00 Lessor Panel Question Time format – delegates will submit questions to the panel in advance Moderator: Duncan Batchelor, Partner, Norton Rose Fulbright Panel: Steven Townend, BOC Aviation David Power, CEO, Orix Aviation Ruth Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, Goshawk Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman, Air Lease Corporation Olaf Sachau, CEO, Intrepid Aviation Joe Ye Tian, Managing Director, Head of Aviation, Ping An Leasing iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

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13:00 Lunch Sponsored by:

14:00 Supported Finance Panel

When the global economy weakens few areas of finance have been as important as

the ECAs. Will 2017 be another year of essential ECA assistance? It remains an

essential fall-back option for some operators.

Moderator: Daniel C Da Silva, Vice President, Strategic Regulatory Policy, Boeing

Capital Corporation

Panel: Nigel Taylor, SVP Customer Project & Structured Finance, Airbus / Marcio Nobre

Migon, Head of Department, Aircraft Financing – Export Credit Division, Banco

Naciaonal de Desenvolvimento-Economico se Social (BNDES) / Robert Roy, Vice

President – Transport, Export-Import Bank of the United States / Gordon Welsh, UK

Export Finance / Eric Agote, Head of Unit – Airbus Unconditional Guarantee, Bpifrance

Assurance Export / Viren Joshi, CFA, Global Accounts Director - Transportation Group,

Export Development Canada / Suresh Hegde, Head of Solutions & Structuring, NN

Investment Partners / Thomas Kolberg, Aircraft-Head of Department, Euler Hermes

Aktiengesellschaft Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland


14:55 Keynote Address Aengus Kelly, CEO & Executive Director, AerCap Holdings iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

15:30 Airline CFO/Treasurer panel

Leading airline finance heads from across the globe take to the stage to give their

verdicts on the past 12 months and the outlook for 2017, as well as setting out what

financing strategies they will be looking for to fund deliveries in the year ahead and

what is affecting their decision making process.

Moderator: Graham Tyler, Partner, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP

Panel: Nirmal Govindadas, Senior Vice President – Corporate Treasury, Emirates

Airlines / Ted North, Managing Director, Corporate Finance, United Airlines / Tom

Weir, Vice President & Treasurer, American / Ricky Thirion, Group Treasurer, Etihad

Airways / Andy Nelson, Managing Director & Assistant Treasurer, Delta Air Lines, Inc. / Edward McGarvey, VP & Treasurer, Atlas Air Worldwide


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16:25 Afternoon Break Sponsored by:

16:35 Lessor Financing & Rating Panel

Leading lessors are quizzed on their financing strategies and secured Vs unsecured capital markets and the effects that a rating can have. Moderator: Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Ratings Panel: Mark Wasden, Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service / Mounir Kuzbari, Managing Director, Novus Aviation Capital / Betsy R Snyder, CFA, Director, Standard & Poor’s / Craig Fraser, Managing Director, Fitch Ratings / / Christian McCormick, Managing Director Finance, CALC / HUANG Zheng, Head of Aviation, Ping An Leasing iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

17:15 Engine Investment Moderator: Jon Sharp, CEO & President, Engine Lease Finance Panel: Mr. Ichiro Tatara, Managing Director & CEO, Sumisho Aero Engine Lease / Bobby Janagan, General Manager, Rolls-Royce & Partners Finance Limited / Giles Thomas, Managing Director, Charlotte Parker / Dan Coulcher, SVP & Chief Commercial Officer, Willis Lease Finance Corporation / Bob James, CEO, AerFin / Martin Friis-Petersen, Managing Director, MTU Maintenance Lease Services B.V. iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

18:15 End of day one – chairman’s closing remarks

17:45 Pre-Awards Cocktail reception in the Horseshoe Bar: iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

Sponsored by:

18:00 Pre-Awards drinks at the Engine Lease Finance Bar – Open Networking to all


Sponsored by:

19:00 Aviation 100 European & Global Leaders Awards

The RDS, Ballsbridge, Dublin

Coaches leave from outside the Shelbourne Hotel from 18:30 through to 19:00 with a

fleet making several trips for all.

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Then return coach trips to the Shelbourne from the RDS start from 22:00 through to

23:00

Hosted by:

Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman, Lease Corporation International iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

Sponsored by:

After award drinks until (very) late:

ELFC Bar, Shelbourne Hotel, Ground floor by conference hall entrance

Sponsored by:

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Airline Treasury & Risk Management Forum

16 January 2017 1st floor, Shelbourne Hotel, Dublin – Adams room (upstairs from ELFC bar area)

9:45 Optimal hedging strategies for Fuel and FX – A Tale of Correlations (Alankar Karol - Visual Risk) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

10:30 Morning Break 10:45 Aviation Carbon Markets (Louis Redshaw – Redshaw Advisors) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

11:30 Hedge Accounting & Financial Reporting Requirements (Niall Naughton - KPMG) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 12:15 Crude Oil & Jet Fuel – Supply, Demand & Price Forecasts (Alan Gelder – Wood Mackenzie) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Airline CFO & Treasurer Discussion Panel iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 14:45 Airline Fuel Hedging in 2017 & Beyond (Mike Corley - Mercatus Energy Advisors) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 15:30 Airline Fuel Hedging – How it Works in Practice (Morten Elgkjaer – Global Risk Management) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook 16:15 Jet Fuel Spot Markets & Price Reporting (Andrew Bonnington - Platts) iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

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TUESDAY 17th JANUARY 2017 08:00 Registration Open/Morning Refreshments

08:45 Opening of conference day 2 - Chairman Opening Remarks Will McCallum, Managing Director, Aviation Finance, Standard Chartered Bank

08:50 The Financial Health of Airlines and the Outlook for 2017 A senior figure looks at major players in the airline market and assesses their financial strength going forward. Helane Becker, Cowen Securities iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

09:35 Keynote Address David Siegel, CEO, AWAS iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

10:10 Lessor Panel Question Time format – Delegates will submit questions for the panel in advance. Moderator: Mark Streeter, Managing Director, JP Morgan Mamoun Kuzbari, Managing Director, Novus Aviation John L. Plueger, Chief Executive Officer & President, Air Lease Corporation Fred Browne, CEO, AERGO CAPITAL LIMITED Stephane Daillencourt, CEO, Asia Aviation Capital C. Jeffrey Knittel, President, Transportation Finance, CIT Mark Lapidus, CEO, Amedeo iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook


11:15 Banking Panel

Valuation, M&A trends vs. EETCS and ABS

Moderator: Jose Abramovici, Global Head of Asset Finance Group, Credit Agricole Corporate Investment Bank

Panel: Joerg Schirrmacher, Head of Transportation Finance, Helaba Landesbank Hessen-

Thüringen / Thomas Hollahan, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation, Global

Banking, Citi Group / Greg Lee, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs / Richard Moody, Asset

Finance & Leasing, Deutsche Bank / Masao Masuda, Director, Global Aviation Team,

Development Bank of Japan / Michel Dembinski, Head of Aviation, The Bank of Tokyo-

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Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. / Laurent Floquet, Global Head Aviation Finance, Societe Generale

Corporate & Investment Banking


12:05 Capital Markets Outlook Moderator: Patrick M. Käufer, Managing Director Capital Markets and Treasury Solutions, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Panel: Thomas Bliemel, Managing Director & Head of Structured Transportation Finance, Citi / Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Head of Aviation Credit Research, JP Morgan / Ted North, Managing Director, Corporate Finance, United Airlines / Leo J. Burrell, Managing Director Securitization, Credit Agricole Securities (USA) / Tom Smith, Managing Director, Credit Suisse / Betsy R Snyder, CFA, Director, Standard & Poor’s / Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook


14:00 ABS Panel

Moderator: Tony Nocera, Managing Director, ABS Commercial - KROLL BOND RATING Panel: Matt Little, Castlelake / Bill Hoffman or Javier Meireles, Apollo Aviation Group /

Greg Leveto, Head of Transportation, Infrastructure & Energy Americas, Deutsche Bank /

Jing Xie, CFA, Director – Structured Credit Ratings, S&P Global Ratings / Kate Scanlin,

Analytical Manager & Senior Director of non-traditional ABS, S&P Global Ratings / Bradley

E Smith, Kahala Capital / John Bella, Managing Director, Fitch Ratings / Eric Shea, MUFG

Securities / Tracy Rice, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s / Serge Gabovich, Executive

Director, Structured Credit Group Mizuho Securities USA


14:45 Keynote slot: Howard Millar, COO, Stellwagen Capital iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

15:20 CFO/Treasurer panel – Low Cost Leading ULCC and LCC airline finance heads from across the globe take to the stage to give their verdicts on the past 12 months and their outlook for 2017. They will also set out their financing strategies to fund deliveries in the year ahead and what is affecting their decision making process. Moderator: Helane Becker, Managing Director, Cowen Panel: Ted Christie, Spirit Airlines / Jude Bricker, SVP, Planning, Allegiant Airlines / Chris Monroe, VP Treasurer, Southwest Airlines / Riyaz Peermohamed, Chief

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Financial Officer, IndiGo / Neil Sorahan, CFO, Ryanair / John Rodgerson, CFO, Azul / Satyendra Pandey, Head of Strategy & Planning, GoAir iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

16:05 Break Sponsored by:

16:15 Investing in mid to late life Aircraft & Engines

Moderator: Robert Korn, CEO, Apollo Aviation Group Panel: Stephen Hannahs, CEO, Wings Capital Partners / David Ellis, SVP, GA Telesis /

Evan Carruthers, Managing Partner & Portfolio Manager, Castlelake / Bradley Smith, Kahala Capital iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

16:55 TRANSACTION ANALYSIS - LABRADOR: THE GROUNDBREAKING

MERGER OF US ABS AND KOREAN EQUITY MARKETS.

The Labrador ABS transaction that closed in December is groundbreaking in a

number of ways, from GECAS’ s re-entry to the ABS market to the purchase of E-

Certificates by Korean investors. The Panel will discuss various aspects of the

deal, including various challenges in expanding the Korean equity market to

embrace the US ABS structure and purchase of E-Certificates.

Moderator: Geoffrey Kass, Vedder Price

Panel: Vinodh Srinivasan, Managing Director & Co-Head Structured Credit Group, Mizuho

Securities USA / Greg Conlon, Senior Vice President, GE Capital Aviation Services / Daeyeon

(Danny) Kang, Team Head, Real Asset Management Division / Infrastructure Investment

Team, Korea Investment Trust Management Co.,Ltd. / Jung-Wook Sim, General Manager,

Meritz Securities


17:35 Aircraft Valuations Panel & Remarketing Outlook Aircraft valuations – does the panel agree with one another on certain types? Banks, lessors and owners all have varying views on what their asset is worth – So how can/should the valuation firms react? As private investors move into aviation assets accurate valuations become more important than ever. And what of those new generation aircraft? Will they have an effect on prices in the coming years and what is the outlook? Are those price ranges being achieved in the market correct? Active remarketers tell us what they are seeing on the ground right now. Moderator: Steven Tingey CIO AVi8 Air Capital Panel: Andrew Kabala, Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency / Stuart J Rubin, Principal, ICF SH&E / David Tokoph, Vice President Valuations and Technical Analysis, Morten Beyer & Agnew / Les Weal, Oriel / George Dimitroff, Head of

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Valuations, Flight Ascend Consultancy / Bryson Monteleone, ISTAT Certified Appraiser, Tailwind Capital LLC / Jonathan McDonald, IBA iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

18:25 Chairman’s closing remarks Will McCallum, Executive Director – Aviation Finance, Standard Chartered

17:30 to 19:30

Connect Dublin drinks The Horseshoe Bar, Shelbourne Hotel main foyer kindly Sponsored by:

18:15 Until very late

Pre & Post Gala Dinner Drinks The Engine Lease Finance Bar


19:45 - doors open 19:45

The AirLink Charity Gala Dinner Shelbourne Hotel Ballroom iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook Supported and sponsored by:

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WEDNESDAY 18th JANUARY 2017 08:00 Registration Open/Morning refreshments

09:00 Opening of conference - Chairman Opening Remarks

Martin Sutton, Executive Director, Aviation Finance – Standard Chartered

09:00 The Continued Evolution of Commercial Operating Leasing Using charts and analysis leveraging the industry leading Ascend databases, Rob

Morris covers the medium and long-term macro outlook (can leasing reach 50% of

the fleet?), discusses the evolving competitive dynamic, merits of certain asset types,

next generation aircraft vs current generation and more.

Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy, Flight Ascend Consultancy


09:45 Lessor Finance & Investment Panel

Bespoke financing and investment options for the seasoned aviation investor and

those new to aviation looking to get started. Also how can aviation companies better

assist institutional investors in clearing the long path for approval of aviation related

investments? Can certain packages and formats work far better for attracting

investment and does a good credit rating still matter above all else?

Moderator: Doulgas L. Brennan, Chief Executive Officer, Stellwagen Group Limited.

Panel: Philip A. Baggaley, CFA, Managing Director Corporate Ratings, Standard &

Poor’s Ratings Services / Jeff Straebler, Managing Director - Transportation,

Aerospace & Defense, Bonds & Corporate Finance Group, John Hancock Insurance

/ Greg Willis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Air Lease

Corporation iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook


10:45 Keynote: Aviation Finance Leasing & Investment in 2017

Abdol Moabery, Chief Executive Officer, GA Telesis, LLC iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

11:20 Airline rating & finance Panel

Moderated by: Betsy R Snyder, CFA, Director, Standard & Poor’s

Panel: Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating / Craig Fraser,

Managing Director, Fitch Ratings / Jonathan Root,, Senior Credit Officer, MOODY'S

INVESTOR SERVICE iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

11:55 Keynote: Wizz Air Group

Jozsef Varadi, Chief Executive Officer, Wizz Air Group


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12:20 Equity and investment panel Private equity investment in aircraft and engines: Examining issuer and investor

expectations and structures with all new information for 2017.

Moderated by: Michael Mulitz, Senior Counsel, Co-Head of Aviation Finance & Leasing, Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer

Panel: Daniel Hartnett, Partner, Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP / Willys

Schneider, Senior Counsel, Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP / David Andrews,

Managing Partner, Hudson Structured Capital Management / Bob Peart, Portfolio Manager, Magnetar Capital LLC



14:05 Helicopter investment, finance & leasing

Moderator: Tony Nocera, Managing Director, ABS Commercial - KROLL BOND

RATING

Panel: Crispin Maunder, Executive Chairman, Lease Corporation International /

Clark McGinn, Waypoint Leasing / Francois Gautier, Chief Executive Officer,

AVINCO / Neil Calvert, CEO of Amur HFS / Mark Kelly, Managing Director, Lobo

Leasing Limited


14:50 Sidecar and Joint Venture vehicles attached to leasing companies

Moderated by: Declan Keane, DD Advisory, KPMG

Panel: Ryan McKenna, Vice President, Air Lease Corporation / John Feren, EVP Global Strategy, Aviation Capital Group / Paul Sheridan, Acting MD, SVP, Risk & Capital Markets, Accipiter / Tokyo Century Leasing name TBC /


15:40 KEYNOTE – Industry Introduction to AVi8 Air Capital by: Ray Sisson, Co-Founder and Executive Chairman, AVi8 Air Capital

Ed Wegel, Co-Founder and CEO, AVi8 Air Capital


16:15 Afternoon Break Sponsored by:

16:30 THE BIG DEBATE – AIRCRAFT VALUATIONS AND REMARKTING /

INVESTING IN AIRCRAFT AND THE ROBUSTNESS OF THE SYSTEM

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Asset managers have come of age, able to offer tailored products to meet investor

needs no matter the age and type of aircraft, here some of the world’s leading players

look at how they see the current market and what potential investors and current

aircraft owners should be looking for in 2017 and indeed, what they can offer to the

same in the here and now.

Moderator: Gary Fitzgerald, Managing Director, Stratos

Panel: Phil Seymour, IBA / Martin Bouzaima, CEO, FPG Amentum / James Meyler,

Chief Commercial Officer, Orix Aviation, Andy Mansell, EVP & Head of Global

Marketing and Trading, Aviation Capital Group / Yuji Ikehama, Head of Airline

Marketing, Americas & Pacific, Century Tokyo Leasing / Peter Huijbers, Managing

Director, PH Aviation Asia Ltd / Bill Cumberlidge, Chairman and Chief Commercial Officer,

GC Aviation Partners Limited (GCAP) / Marc Bourgade, CEO, AFC / Karl Brunjes, Managing

Director, RPK Capital


17:45 End of conference – chairman’s closing remarks and acknowledgements Martin Sutton, Executive Director, Aviation Finance – Standard Chartered

18:00

Until

very

late

Drinks at the Engine Lease Finance Bar – Open Networking to all iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

Sponsored by:

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2nd Annual Airline Economics Aviation Finance &

leasing School – Dublin

Adams room, 1st floor, Shelbourne Hotel, St Stephen’s Green, Dublin

Sponsored by:

Chairman: Gareth Bryan

09:00 – 09:40 – Macro economics outlook and the outlook for the aviation sector

Stuart Hatcher, CIO, IBA iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

09:40 – 10:20 – Implications on the finance and leasing sector of new taxation regulations coming

into force - Gareth Bryan, KPMG iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

10:20 – 11:00 - Factors influencing operating lease economics

TBC, SVP Commercial, Asia Pacific, CDB Aviation Lease Finance


11:00 – 11:15 – BREAK

11:15 – 12:05 - Risk Management for Operating Lessors

Tim Bacchus, Senior Risk Director, CDB Aviation Lease Finance


12:05 -13:00 – The next generation of lease accounting Niall Naughton, Partner, KPMG iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

13:00 – 14:00 - LUNCH

Chairman: Niall Naughton

14:00 – 14:40 - ABS Maintenance Forecasting and Stress Testing

David Tokoph, MBA iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

14:40 – 15:20 - The Lease’s Technical impacts on the financial and economics of Lease Agreements

Ran Ackerman, V.P Marketing & Sales, Head of Asia and EMEA MK Aviation, S.A. iCalendar • Google Calendar • Outlook

15:20 – 15:35 – BREAK

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15:35 – 16:15 – Redelivery Management and Technical Aspects of Leases Oisin Murray, Head of Technical & Asset Management, CDB Aviation Lease Finance


16:15 – 16:50 Engine Event Management

Workscope approval, Table top inspection of hardware, Approval of replacement

parts, Invoice review, MR Reconciliation.

Willie Reilly, Engine Services Department, Santos Dumont.

16:50 – 17:30 - Chapter 11 for non-US Operators

Jasmine Ball, Partner, Debevoise & Plimpton and Geoffrey Burgess, Partner,

Debevoise & Plimpton


17:30 – CLOSING REMARKS

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airline economics growth frontiers dublin 2017 15th...

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