aires (atmospheric integrated regional system)
DESCRIPTION
I. Historical background. II. Objectives. III. AIRES in few words. IV. Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004. V . Conclusion and questions. AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) AIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : air - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System)
AIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : airAIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : air
Air Quality Forecasts and Simulations in PACA regionAir Quality Forecasts and Simulations in PACA region
I.I. Historical background Historical background
II. II. ObjectivesObjectives
III. III. AIRES in few wordsAIRES in few words
IV. IV. Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004
VV. Conclusion and questions. Conclusion and questions
A. ArmengaudA. Armengaud44, S. Fayet, S. Fayet44, D. Robin, D. Robin44, G. Causera, G. Causera44, O. Sanchez, O. Sanchez33,A. Mangin,A. Mangin33, , F. RouffiF. Rouffi33, B. Théodore, B. Théodore33, O. Hembise, O. Hembise33, R. Vautard, R. Vautard11, F. Lasry, F. Lasry22, I. Coll, I. Coll22
• 1 – LMD : Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau• 2 – LISA, Creteil• 3 – ACRI-ST, Sophia-Antipolis• 4 – AIRMARAIX, Marseille
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
HISTORICAL backgroundHISTORICAL background
2001 : SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM ESCOMPTE2001 : SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM ESCOMPTE
EMISSIONS INVENTORYEMISSIONS INVENTORYCADASTRECADASTRE
MODELLING EXERCICEMODELLING EXERCICE ESCOMPTE ESCOMPTE
2005 : OPERATIONAL REGIONAL SYSTEM2005 : OPERATIONAL REGIONAL SYSTEM
DAILY FORECAST AND SIMULATION OFDAILY FORECAST AND SIMULATION OFAIR QUALITY IN PACA REGIONAIR QUALITY IN PACA REGION
ESCOMPTESpin-off
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
YesterdayYesterday
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
ObservationsObservationsNetwork PACANetwork PACA
DailyDaily
Monitoring surveyMonitoring survey
Analyse and valuationAnalyse and valuationAir QualityAir Quality
TodayToday TomorrowTomorrow TendancyTendancy
Forecasts 24h, 48hForecasts 24h, 48h
• Improvement of monitoring surveyImprovement of monitoring survey• Improvement of understandingImprovement of understanding• MapsMaps
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) : AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) : Air quality forecast and simulation system in PACA region (Provence Alpes Air quality forecast and simulation system in PACA region (Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur). Daily 3D forecasts of Côte d’Azur). Daily 3D forecasts of ozoneozone, , nitrogen oxidesnitrogen oxides, , aerosolsaerosols and others and others pollutants.pollutants.
• based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/).).• Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (www.prevair.org).).
AIRES provides fine resolution forecasts at 12h, 24h and 48h over 3 different AIRES provides fine resolution forecasts at 12h, 24h and 48h over 3 different areas (ESCOMPTE, NICE and whole PACA). areas (ESCOMPTE, NICE and whole PACA). Partners : ACRI-ST (Partners : ACRI-ST (www.acri-st.fr), IPSL and LISA, CHIMERE research team (), IPSL and LISA, CHIMERE research team (http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/index.html).).
AIRES in few wordsAIRES in few words
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
AIRES in few wordsAIRES in few words
MM5 CHIMERE
www.prevair.org
Outside of PACA3 modes : Monitoring
SurveyModel + obs.
Geostatistical process(from INERIS)
ScenarioForecast
1km-3km
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
www.enviport.org/AAM
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
AIRES is taking part in the AIRES is taking part in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise with ESCOMPTE modelling exercise with ACRI-ST participation. ACRI-ST participation.
ObservationsObservations
CHIMERE-ACRI
MESO-NHC
12h T.U. 21st of June 2001, IOP2a.12h T.U. 21st of June 2001, IOP2a.
Example of comparison between MESO-NHC, Example of comparison between MESO-NHC, CHIMERE-ACRI and observationsCHIMERE-ACRI and observations
AssessmentAssessment
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
Comparison between ozone temporal profile from AIX PLATANES Comparison between ozone temporal profile from AIX PLATANES ground station (black dots) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, bold violet ground station (black dots) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, bold violet line). Others color lines represent all models involved in the line). Others color lines represent all models involved in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise.ESCOMPTE modelling exercise.
AssessmentAssessment
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
Comparison between ozone vertical profile from ALTO LIDAR Comparison between ozone vertical profile from ALTO LIDAR (observations, left) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, right) during IOP2b.(observations, left) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, right) during IOP2b.
AssessmentAssessment
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
O3ARLS
O3BETG
O3FSCB
O3ISTR
O3M NDM
O3M RGV
O3M RM S
O3PDBL
O3RBRT
O3SLPV
O3SM DC
O3SM M R
O3SRM Y
O3SSLP
O3VTRL
REC 180
ALE 240
O3AIXA
O3AIXO
O3AIXP
O3BBAI
O3CADA
O3ROUS
O3AUBE
O3CINQ
O3CIOT
O3CUQU
O3M ARG
O3M IRA
O3PENH
SUMMER 2003 : first try by Dr. Robert Vautard MM5+CHIMERE over ESCOMPTE
From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/200316 consecutives days
Begining of the episode
30thof July for 1st of August
180 µg/m180 µg/m33
240 µg/m240 µg/m33
AssessmentAssessment
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
Still no OStill no O3 3
3131st st of julyof july
D+1OBS
D+2
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
D+1OBS
D+2Begining of the episodeBegining of the episode
11st st of Augustof August
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
O3ARLS
O3BETG
O3FSCB
O3ISTR
O3M NDM
O3M RGV
O3M RM S
O3PDBL
O3RBRT
O3SLPV
O3SM DC
O3SM M R
O3SRM Y
O3SSLP
O3VTRL
REC 180
ALE 240
O3AIXA
O3AIXO
O3AIXP
O3BBAI
O3CADA
O3ROUS
O3AUBE
O3CINQ
O3CIOT
O3CUQU
O3M ARG
O3M IRA
O3PENH
SUMMER 2003
From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/200317 consecutives days 03 peak
During the episode
180 µg/m180 µg/m33
240 µg/m240 µg/m33
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
D+1OBS
D+2
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
Etc …Etc …
D+1OBS
D+2
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
O3ARLS
O3BETG
O3FSCB
O3ISTR
O3M NDM
O3M RGV
O3M RM S
O3PDBL
O3RBRT
O3SLPV
O3SM DC
O3SM M R
O3SRM Y
O3SSLP
O3VTRL
REC 180
ALE 240
O3AIXA
O3AIXO
O3AIXP
O3BBAI
O3CADA
O3ROUS
O3AUBE
O3CINQ
O3CIOT
O3CUQU
O3M ARG
O3M IRA
O3PENH
SUMMER 2003
From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/200316 consecutives days 03 peak
Finally : 15th for 17th
180 µg/m180 µg/m33
240 µg/m240 µg/m33
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
D+1OBS
D+2
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
O3ARLS
O3BETG
O3FSCB
O3ISTR
O3M NDM
O3M RGV
O3M RM S
O3PDBL
O3RBRT
O3SLPV
O3SM DC
O3SM M R
O3SRM Y
O3SSLP
O3VTRL
REC 180
ALE 240
O3AIXA
O3AIXO
O3AIXP
O3BBAI
O3CADA
O3ROUS
O3AUBE
O3CINQ
O3CIOT
O3CUQU
O3M ARG
O3M IRA
O3PENH
SUMMER 2003
From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/200316 consecutives days 03 peak
180 µg/m180 µg/m33
240 µg/m240 µg/m33
START
PERSISTENCE
END
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
01/0
5/2
004
08/0
5/2
004
15/0
5/2
004
22/0
5/2
004
29/0
5/2
004
05/0
6/2
004
12/0
6/2
004
19/0
6/2
004
26/0
6/2
004
03/0
7/2
004
10/0
7/2
004
17/0
7/2
004
24/0
7/2
004
31/0
7/2
004
07/0
8/2
004
14/0
8/2
004
21/0
8/2
004
28/0
8/2
004
04/0
9/2
004
11/0
9/2
004
18/0
9/2
004
25/0
9/2
004
O3AIXA
O3AIXO
O3AIXP
O3BBAI
O3CADA
O3ROUS
O3AUBE
O3CINQ
O3CIOT
O3CUQU
O3MARG
O3MIRA
O3PENH
O3ARLS
O3BETG
O3FSCB
O3ISTR
O3MNDM
O3MRGV
O3MRMS
O3PDBL
O3RBRT
O3SLPV
O3SMDC
O3SMMR
O3SRMY
O3SSLP
O3VTRL
REC 180
REC 240
SUMMER 2004
Example : 23rd of July
180 µg/m180 µg/m33
240 µg/m240 µg/m33
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
23 July 2004
D-1OBS This system was operational in summer 2004
South West Breaze
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
23 July 2004
D+0
D+1OBS
D+2
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
06
J : 100 %J+1 : 50 %
STATISTICS SUMMER 2004
Forecasted / Observed % validated by a expert
83
J : 60 %J+1 : 50 %
40 days [O3] > 180 µg/m3
DEP. Nb. days
> 180 µg/m3
13 34
83 5
84 7
04 10
06 6
13
J : 78 %J+1 : 68 %
84
J : 100 %J+1 : 85 %
04
J : 90 %J+1 : 80 %
28 dys : 200066 dys : 2003
Composed Breaze :Weak Mistral + South Breaze
OVER-ESTIMATIONIn VAR
Link with Boundary Conditions. NCEP download. Met files are not always available at the right moment.
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
AIRES isAIRES is• Operationnal : Operationnal : Forecast, survey, scenarioForecast, survey, scenario
• ValidatedValidated : : (still in progress)(still in progress)summers 2001 (ESCOMPTE), 2003 and 2004summers 2001 (ESCOMPTE), 2003 and 2004 •Provide daily datasets to expertsProvide daily datasets to experts who analyze air who analyze air quality over the PACA region.quality over the PACA region.This information is taken into account for This information is taken into account for regional regulation information.regional regulation information.
• Upgreadeable et modularUpgreadeable et modular (links with IPSL, LISA, (links with IPSL, LISA, ACRI-ST)ACRI-ST)
In the near future:In the near future:AIRES will be involved in the PRIMEQUAL AIRES will be involved in the PRIMEQUAL SCENARIOS PROGRAM. SCENARIOS PROGRAM. It will be able to evaluate the different impacts of It will be able to evaluate the different impacts of reductions emissions scenarios. reductions emissions scenarios. (I. COLL and F. LASRY – LISA) 16h20 today !(I. COLL and F. LASRY – LISA) 16h20 today !
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEAIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTEWorkshop - 21,22 March 2005Workshop - 21,22 March 2005Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau FranceEcole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France
We are looking for tracks : forecast improvements in PACA regionWe are looking for tracks : forecast improvements in PACA region
Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the first hours ? first hours ? • •CHIMERE DUST version ?CHIMERE DUST version ?
- Users returns ?- Users returns ? - specials needs (inventory) ?- specials needs (inventory) ?
- computer time versus « CHIMERE GAS version »- computer time versus « CHIMERE GAS version »- parallel version ?- parallel version ?
• Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users
Specially with people who are faced with Breazes PhenomenaSpecially with people who are faced with Breazes Phenomena- Pond BreazePond Breaze- Sea BreazeSea Breaze- Valley Breaze Valley Breaze
QUESTIONSQUESTIONS