Delay model

ContentsModel interfaceDescriptionAn outline of the derivation of this modelSummaryArea for input of variables and presentation of summary results.Input dataAircraft dataAircraft operating data derived from the Westminster Report.Airport chargesAirport charges derived from the Westminster Report.Working areasUnit costsCalculation of aircraft operating costs per minute. Strategic delay costs are also calculated here as they are based on unit costs.Table JTable J from the Westminster Report. This provides the structure for calculating tactical delay costs.Model outputUoW tablesTables of calculated delay costs. These reproduce tables from the Westminster Report and provide a validation of the model's ability to reproduce the results of the Report. The tables cover tactical delay, with and without the network effect and strategic delay.Delay detailsThe complete database of delay cost elements generated by the model. The source of the summary table in the Summary spreadsheet.Original valuesA static table showing the assumptions in the Westminster Report and the results produced.

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&DDescriptionSummaryAircraft dataAirport chargesUnit costsTable JUoW tablesDelay detailsOriginal values

DescriptionUniversity of Westminster ReportThe Westminster Report approaches delay costs from two angles. The bulk of the report is given to a detailed assessment of the delay costs for 12 specific aircraft types which, together, carry out about 42% of the flying time in Europe. As a relatively brief supplement, the Report derives an estimate of the total delay costs for Europe and calculates an average delay cost per minute - the 72 value. This value is a tactical ground cost, with the network effect (ie including reactionary costs) and also includes the opportunity cost to an airline of lost passengers. Because it includes this opportunity cost, it could be applicable to a single airline but it would not be appropriate to apply it across the whole fleet. However, the opportunity cost may be considered to be a valuation of the cost of delay to passengers.Approach of this modelThis model builds on the data for the 12 specific aircraft types in the Westminster Report and introduces a notional thirteenth type which carries out the remaining flights in Europe. This aircraft type is a composite of the B737-300 and the ATR42(d), with characteristics combined in such proportions that the weighted average value for the whole fleet for tactical ground delay cost, with the network effect and the full cost to airlines of passenger delays gives the 72 value. The B737-300 and the ATR42(d) were chosen to be representative of the medium and smaller aircraft operating in European airspace which were probably under represented in the 12 aircraft types.The model is then able to produce estimates of the average European cost of delay for the different categories of delay (tactical/strategic, with/without network effect, ground/airborne) segmented by types of cost (fuel, maintenance, crew, airport charges, aircraft ownership costs, passenger costs). It is then possible for the user to substitute the values in the Westminster Report with his own assumptions and produce an updated cost of delay.DefinitionsTactical delayActual incurred delays.Strategic delayThe buffer built into schedules in anticipation of delays.Ground delayDelay incurred on the ground, either at the gate or on the taxiway. The Westminster Report assumed a combination but the model assumes all delay is at the gate. [A switch in Table J allows the original assumption to be re-applied.]Airborne delayDelay incurred in the air, either en-route or when holding. The Westminster Report assumed a combination but the model assumes all delay is whilst holding. [A switch in Table J allows the original assumption to be re-applied.]Network effectThe effect of consequential delay caused either to the aircraft incurring the initial delay or to other aircraft.Reactionary delay multiplierA multiplier applied to the cost of an initial delay to account for the costs of consequential delay.BHDOCBlock Hour Direct Operating Costs. The direct costs per hour of operating an aircraft, including fuel, crew costs, maintenance, etc. The Westminster Report estimates crew and maintenance costs as assumed percentages of BHDOC.Aircraft ownership costs (DRL)The unitised cost of possession of an aircraft, whether it be a depreciation (D), rental (R) or leasing (L) charge, expressed as a cost per minute.Passenger compensationMoney costs of catering for, accommodating or compensating passengers who have suffered delays.Passenger opportunity costLost future potential revenue from passengers who choose not to fly with a particular airline again as a consequence of delay currently experienced. This is assumed to be equivalent to the cost of delay to passengers.

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&D

SummaryAssumptionsScenarioLowBaseHighExchange ratesData as of 23/11/06Scenario chosenBase0Dollar/euro exchange rate1 =$1.30Exchange rate - ECBFuel price - IATAAircraft operating costsIndicesBase year - 2002ECB price indexAircraft operating dataClick for detailsAircraft operating costs1.08Jan 0394.67Fuel cost (US$/US gallon)1.181.742.41Aircraft ownership costs1.08Oct 06102.6Crew cost (% of BHDOC)5%15%25%Passenger costs1.08Maintenance cost (% of BHDOC)15%15%15%Costs of passenger delay to airlinesFor delays greater than 15 minutesReactionary delay multipliersDelays > 15 minutesCost per passenger per minute ()Passenger costs1.8Passenger compensation0.130.160.19Non-passenger costs1.2Passenger opportunity cost0.190.240.29Passenger load factor50%70%90%ResultsDelay costs per minute ()Tactical without network effectTactical withnetwork effectStrategicGroundAirborneGroundAirborneGroundAirborneFuel costs115115115Maintenance costs11110.012Crew costs9911111212Ground and passenger handling0.00.00.00.00.00.0Airport charges0-0000.00.0Aircraft ownership costs (DRL)0.00.00.00.01010Passenger compensation141426260.00.0Direct cost to an airline254039542249Passenger opportunity cost222239390.00.0Overall cost476278932249

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&DCurrent prices may be derived from the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitorwww.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/price_analysis.htmThis exchange rate is used to convert fuel prices, input in US dollars, to euro. All other costs should be input as euro.This index is applied to the operating costs derived from the Westminster Report, including maintenance, crew costs and airport charges. It is not applied to fuel costs.This index is applied to the costs of passenger delay to airlines. If the values in cells E14 and E15 are changed directly, it should be set to 1.This index is applied to the costs of aircraft ownership derived from the Westminster Report.Data for 12 specific aircraft types, including seat numbers, fuel consumption, operating costs and costs of ownership, taken from the Westminster Report.The results table will present the values for the chosen scenario for the current data set. If the data is amended, the [Update the database] button should be pressed.Click for details

Aircraft dataFuel (kg/hr)BHDOC (/hr)DRL (/hr)Percentage of total flight timeMarginal crew costs (/hr)Percentage of flightsAPUstationaryactiveen-routearrival managementSeatsonlygroundtaxi outlowbasehighlowbasehighlowbasehighlowbasehighlowbasehighB737-3001251156909002355243625232656273128142540495062502804706604.28%05777904.6%B737-4001431156909002337241024982504258826762950528065303505808103.34%06088323.1%B737-5001001156909002169222422882483253025842540455056303105207302.42%06088323.1%B737-80017411569090024852572266820382187222921304040595044074010303.89%06088327.5%B757-200218150820100031953311341726852789286733305960738045074010403.99%06388742.3%B767-300ER240150112014004514472649413735390840934090759011080690115016105.79%0106414561.6%B747-40040628027003400948498091012571987421764784301073011970960160022406.52%0168723091.6%A3191261206307202240230423741791185419192670524066304206909702.03%05777906.2%A32015512063072022792355242920022074215127204790686045076010606.32%06088329.6%A32116612073084026952788288525242625272831805690704055091012802.46%05777903.4%ATR42(d)469510212041943344738239240414002510310015024034004115642.1%ATR72(d)64952403006286306404985045121730310038302003304601.36%04115642.7%All other aircraft are treated as a composite of:B737-30057.5%ATR42(d)42.5%

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&DPercentage of flights carried out in Europe during April, May and June 2006 from PRISME statistics. Not used in the Westminster Report.

Airport chargesDelay time (minutes)65Groundhandlingcost allocation phase direct @ ground Aincurred @ ground BOOOI sequence INOUTONINdescription @ gate Aoff-gate Aoff-gate B@GPUonlyAPUonlytake-offrolllandingrollgate BLowB737-30021.221.20.0-1.60.30.0B737-40021.621.60.0-1.70.30.0B737-50021.021.00.0-1.50.30.0B737-80022.922.90.0-2.00.30.0B757-20025.025.00.0-3.10.30.0B767-300ER29.429.40.0-5.00.30.0B747-40087.287.20.0-11.31.90.0A31921.221.20.0-1.60.30.0A32022.022.00.0-1.90.30.0A32123.723.70.0-2.30.30.0ATR42(d)17.217.20.2-0.20.30.0ATR72(d)17.617.60.0-0.40.30.0Others19.519.50.1-1.00.30.0BaseB737-30023.623.60.0-0.90.30.0B737-40024.224.20.0-1.00.30.0B737-50023.423.40.0-0.90.30.0B737-80025.825.80.0-1.20.30.0B757-20029.029.00.0-1.80.30.0B767-300ER35.035.00.0-2.90.30.0B747-40099.799.70.0-11.31.90.0A31923.723.70.0-0.90.30.0A32024.824.80.0-1.10.30.0A32126.926.90.0-1.30.30.0ATR42(d)18.218.20.20.00.30.0ATR72(d)18.818.80.0-0.20.30.0Others21.321.30.1-0.50.30.0HighB737-30092.492.40.0-1.112.3160.0B737-40092.492.40.0-1.212.3160.0B737-50092.492.40.0-1.012.3160.0B737-80092.492.40.0-1.412.3160.0B757-200102.9102.90.0-2.112.3160.0B767-300ER143.1143.10.0-3.412.3200.0B747-400266.6266.60.0120.029.9300.0A31992.492.40.0-1.112.3160.0A32092.492.40.0-1.312.3120.0A32192.492.40.0-1.612.3160.0ATR42(d)92.492.45.75.712.390.0ATR72(d)92.492.40.0-0.312.390.0Others92.492.42.41.812.3130.3

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&D

Unit costsOptionBaseFuel price /kg0.441234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829Input dataCost per minuteStrategic delay costs per minuteFuel (kg/hr)BHDOCDRLPercentage of flightsMarginal crewFuelGroundAirSeatsAPUgroundtaxien-routearrival/hr/hr/hrAPUgroundtaxien-routearrivalMaintenanceCrewDRLFuelMaintenanceCrewDRLTotalFuelMaintenanceCrewDRLTotalB737-300125115690900243627315364.6350480617509.36938840184.60%625.33220661240.85.06.617.819.913.413.48.50.80.013.48.522.717.813.413.48.553.1B737-400143115690900241025885722.2773845991628.5835005813.06%658.92891095380.85.06.617.618.914.314.310.50.80.014.310.525.617.614.314.310.556.7B737-500100115690900222425304931.1291855921563.55762121053.09%658.92891095380.85.06.616.218.512.312.39.40.80.012.39.422.616.212.312.39.450.3B737-800174115690900257221874378.4092109433801.98584556887.55%658.92891095380.85.06.618.816.010.910.913.40.80.010.913.425.218.810.910.913.454.0B757-2002181508201000331127896459.2373507975801.98584556882.28%691.44185063911.16.07.324.220.316.116.113.41.10.016.113.430.624.216.116.113.469.8B767-300ER24015011201400472639088225.77374036131246.32935460021.57%1153.12559416921.18.210.234.528.520.620.620.81.10.020.620.842.434.520.620.620.896.4B747-400406280270034009809742111628.79476074791734.02344987851.57%1828.31097496572.019.724.871.654.129.129.128.92.00.029.128.960.071.629.129.128.9158.6A319126120630720230418545678.9267983522747.79761276016.19%625.33220661240.94.65.316.813.514.214.212.50.90.014.212.527.516.814.214.212.557.7A320155120630720235520745191.2327030738823.66113869239.65%658.92891095380.94.65.317.215.113.013.013.70.90.013.013.727.617.213.013.013.756.9A321166120730840278826256166.6208936305986.22583711843.35%625.33220661240.95.36.120.319.115.415.416.40.90.015.416.432.720.315.415.416.467.6ATR42(d)46951021204333922720.2492869969260.10351748182.06%445.42727368750.70.70.93.22.96.86.84.30.70.06.84.311.83.26.86.84.321.1ATR72(d)64952403006305043359.6704341396357.64233653742.72%445.42727368750.71.82.24.63.78.48.46.00.70.08.46.015.14.68.48.46.027.4Others9152.31%5490.83.24.111.612.710.610.66.70.80.010.66.718.111.610.610.66.739.5Weighted averages1200.84.15.215.114.812.012.09.50.80.012.09.522.315.112.012.09.548.6

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&D

Table JAircraftB737-300Delay definitionUoW typicalScenarioBase0Delay time (minutes)65Tactical delay costs without network effectcost allocation phase direct @ ground Adirect airborneincurred @ ground BUoW typicalOOOI sequence INOUTOFFONINWithout network effectWith network effectdescription @ gate Aoff-gate Aairborneoff-gate B@GPUonlyAPUonlyactivetaxi outstatnrygroundtake-offrollclimb-out(to ToC)en-routearrivalmngmntToD tot'downlandingrollstatnrygroundactivetaxi ingate BGroundAirborneGroundAirbornecost elementfuel54.5426.7327.21155.01294.90.618.40.818.5maintenance35.435.450.047.679.374.40.61.20.71.3crew salaries and expenses625.3625.3625.3625.3625.3625.39.69.611.511.5ground and passenger handling0.00.00.00.00.0airport charges25.625.60.0-1.00.30.3-0.00.40.1all other pax costs2451.537.737.767.967.9686.3740.81102.11000.10.00.01859.71994.70.0-1.00.00.02451.8proportion of col. total allocated to phase0.810.090.040.06100.70.301001=> average cost per minute for phase11.229.237.7avg cost per min incl. incurred costs @ B48.966.948.966.981.399.3Tactical delay costs with network effectPassenger costs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.04412.7Non-passenger costs823.6889.01322.51200.10.00.01859.71994.70.0-1.20.00.00.4823.6889.01322.51200.10.00.01859.71994.70.0-1.20.00.04413.0=> average cost per minute for phase13.429.267.9avg cost per min incl. incurred costs @ B81.399.3Allocation of maintenance costs4.06%4.06%5.74%5.46%9.10%8.54%5.46%4.06%Phase allocationUoW table numbersUoW typical0.810.090.040.0610.70.31114152425Eurocontrol selection0.90.1001011116192629

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&DValues refered to in the Westminster Report as 'typical' delay costs.Eurocontrol recommended definition in which ground delays are at the gate and airborne delays are in holding.

UoW tablesTactical delay costs without network effectTable 2-14Table 2-15Ground delayAirborne delayLowBaseHighLowBaseHighB737-30022.548.990.434.266.9115.4B737-40025.755.1100.237.172.7124.6B737-50018.442.080.329.158.5102.8B737-80031.264.1114.742.381.5138.8B757-20039.078.4137.453.6101.0168.6B767-300ER43.192.9169.263.7125.0214.5B747-40074.1156.2283.0115.8220.0372.2A31922.849.390.932.964.8112.2A32027.758.4105.238.274.7127.6A32129.961.6109.842.681.2137.1ATR42(d)8.521.444.010.324.447.1ATR72(d)11.726.852.314.431.057.2Others16.436.970.823.948.686.4Weighted averages21.647.087.431.161.7107.4Tactical delay costs with network effectTable 2-24Table 2-25Ground delayAirborne delayLowBaseHighLowBaseHighB737-30039.981.3143.551.699.3168.4B737-40045.692.1160.257.0109.8184.6B737-50032.468.6124.543.285.1147.0B737-80055.5108.4186.366.6125.8210.5B757-20069.5133.6226.084.1156.2257.3B767-300ER76.7155.2270.597.3187.3315.8B747-400131.2261.3453.5172.8325.1542.7A31940.582.0144.450.697.6165.7A32049.398.2169.659.7114.4192.1A32153.2104.1178.265.8123.7205.6ATR42(d)15.034.065.516.837.068.7ATR72(d)20.743.680.623.447.885.4Others29.160.7110.536.572.4126.2Weighted averages38.478.1138.647.892.8158.6Strategic delay costsTable 2-40Table 2-42Ground delayAirborne delayLowBaseHighLowBaseHighB737-3007.922.741.325.953.182.6B737-4009.625.645.328.556.787.1B737-5008.522.639.825.550.377.0B737-80010.425.246.627.954.088.6B757-20011.930.653.635.969.8106.7B767-300ER16.942.480.649.596.4159.1B747-40026.360.097.394.7158.6229.4A31910.627.548.728.357.789.4A32011.227.651.329.256.993.3A32113.432.756.134.767.6103.2ATR42(d)4.411.821.19.821.133.1ATR72(d)5.615.126.613.027.442.5Others6.418.132.719.139.561.6Weighted averages8.522.340.224.348.676.1

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay ModelTables from the Westminister Report&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&DWestminster ReportTable 2-40Buffer used at gateWestminster ReportTable 2-42Buffer used en-route

Delay detailsLowBaseHighB737-300B737-400B737-500B737-800B757-200B767-300ERB747-400A319A320A321ATR42(d)ATR72(d)OthersWeighted averagesB737-300B737-400B737-500B737-800B757-200B767-300ERB747-400A319A320A321ATR42(d)ATR72(d)OthersWeighted averagesB737-300B737-400B737-500B737-800B757-200B767-300ERB747-400A319A320A321ATR42(d)ATR72(d)OthersWeighted averagesTactical delay costs without network effectGround delayFuel000011200000001111112111000111111131110011Maintenance000000100000001110111111000111111111110011Crew000000000000001010101011182810101077892628282829497726282619192326Handling000000000000000000000000000033333353232222Airport000000100000000000001000000022222262222222Passengers222517303842702227298111621384330526673123384750141927365867478110211219059727821304356Total2326183139437423283081216224955426478931564958622127374790100801151371692839110511044527187Airborne delayFuel12121112152143101113238101818171823336616172034121526262426334795232429461721Maintenance111111211100011111123111111122112332221111Crew000000000000001010101011182810101077892628282829497726282619192326Handling000000000000000000000000000033333353232222Airport-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-00-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-000-0-000000020000000Passengers222517303842702227298111621384330526673123384750141927365867478110211219059727821304356Total343729425464116333843101424316773588110112522065758124314962115125103139169215372112128137475786107Tactical delay costs with network effectGround delayFuel111111200100001111113111001111111241110011Maintenance000001100000001111111111001111111221110111Crew00000000000000121212121321341212128810113233333335589232333223232831Handling000000000000000000000000000033333463232233Airport000000100000000000012000000022222382222222Passengers39443154687512739485214202837687855941191312226984912534496510512084146184202342106130140385377101Total404632557077131414953152129388192691081341552618298104344461781431601241862262704541441701786681111139Airborne delayFuel12121112152144101113238101918171823336716172034121527262426334896232429461722Maintenance111111211100111111223112111122122332221112Crew00000000000000121212121321341212128810113233333335589232333223232831Handling000000000000000000000000000033333463232233Airport00000-0000000000000000000000010101141001111Passengers39443154687512739485214202837687855941191312226984912534496510512084146184202342106130140385377101Total52574367849717351606617233748991108512615618732598114124374872931681851472102573165431661922066985126159Strategic delay costsGround delayFuel111111111100111111112111111111112231111111Maintenance000000000000000000000000000000000000000000Crew23223482231222131412111621291413157811122829252733505430313214172226DRL56688121788103446810913132129121416467101215131919294018192368913Total810810121726111113466823262325314260282833121518224145404754819749515621273340Airborne delayFuel121211121622471111132381018181619243472171720351215262523273550102242529561722Maintenance787691123779456713141211162129141315781112171815162030321819198101315Crew23223482231222131412111621291413157811122829252733505430313214172226DRL56688121788103446810913132129121416467101215131919294018192368913Total26292528365095282935101319245357505470961595857682127394983877789107159229899310333426276123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&D

Original valuesAssumptionsScenarioLowBaseHighExchange ratesScenario chosenBase0Dollar/euro exchange rate1 =$1.00Aircraft operating costsIndicesBase year - 2002Aircraft operating dataClick for detailsAircraft operating costs1.00Fuel cost (US$/US gallon)0.640.951.32Aircraft ownership costs1.00Crew cost (% of BHDOC)5%15%25%Passenger costs1.00Maintenance cost (% of BHDOC)15%15%15%Costs of passenger delay to airlinesFor delays greater than 15 minutesReactionary delay multipliersDelays > 15 minutesCost per passenger per minute ()Passenger costs1.8Passenger compensation0.130.160.19Non-passenger costs1.2Passenger opportunity cost0.190.240.29Passenger load factor50%70%90%ResultsDelay costs per minute ()Tactical without network effectTactical withnetwork effectStrategicGroundAirborneGroundAirborneGroundAirborneFuel costs011011111Maintenance costs01110.011Crew costs9910101111Ground and passenger handling0.00.00.00.00.00.0Airport charges0-0000.00.0Aircraft ownership costs (DRL)0.00.00.00.099Passenger compensation131324240.00.0Direct cost to an airline233436462042Passenger opportunity cost202036360.00.0Overall cost435472822042

&C&"Arial,Bold"&11Delay Model&A&L&F&CPage &P of &N&R&DThe results table will present the values for the chosen scenario for the current data set. If the data is amended, the [Update the database] button should be pressed.This exchange rate is used to convert fuel prices, input in US dollars, to euro. All other costs should be input as euro.Data for 12 specific aircraft types, including seat numbers, fuel consumption, operating costs and costs of ownership, taken from the Westminster Report.This index is applied to the operating costs derived from the Westminster Report, including maintenance, crew costs and airport charges. It is not applied to fuel costs.Current prices may be derived from the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitorwww.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/price_analysis.htmThis index is applied to the costs of aircraft ownership derived from the Westminster Report.This index is applied to the costs of passenger delay to airlines. If the values in cells E14 and E15 are changed directly, it should be set to 1.Click for details