28 May, 2012

airBalticand SMS

Lauris Mikelsons

VP Quality Assurance

28 May, 2012

BT & RIX development

Quality & Safety management

Summary & Way forward

Overview

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airBaltic & RIX Development

28 May, 2012

Recent highlights

17 new routes in 2009;

27 new routes in S2010;

Airline of Year 2009/10 in Europe by ERA;

ATW Phoenix Award 2010

2010 in figures (3.2million pax, 69% LF,+16% growth)

The Airline

Pacesetter Award

airBaltic 2010

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Direct flights from Riga in 199028 May, 2012

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Direct flights from Riga in 200228 May, 2012

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airBaltic flights from Riga 201128 May, 2012

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airBaltic passenger flows 2010, total growth +16%

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airBaltic passenger growth

336 367

589 229

1 037 925

1 425 277

2 008 522

2 590 357

2 757 404

3 206 735

3527409

12 8

06 262

212

248

710

218

270

194

224

173

652

151

385

106

127

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

E

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airBaltic transfer share Riga

Changes in BT's Traffic Mix at RIX

88,0%

68,7%

56,1%49,1% 50,0%

43,0%

12,0%

31,3%

43,9%50,9% 50,0%

57,0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb.08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10

Calendar Month

% o

f O

ve

rall

Tra

ffic

Local BT:BT Transfer

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airBaltic fleet 1995-2009

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

3 3 3 35 6

9 8 810 11

22

1

1

6 7 8

13

16

18

2

2

11

10

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Avro RJ70 F50 SF 340 Boeing 737-500 Boeing 757-200

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28 May, 2012

Quality & Safety Management

Education:

Riga Aviation University, (93-98)B.Sc.Ing. Aircraft and Power plant Mechanics

UNO Aviation Institute, NE, USA (94-95; 2001) General aviation studies & GA maintenance internship

Cranfield University, UK (03-04)M.Sc. Air Transport Management (Thesis on SMS Cost & Benefit)

Experience:

CAA of Latvia, Airworthiness inspector (95-98)

airBaltic airline

Flight Standards admin, auditor (98-03)

Engineering Manager, auditor (04-05)

Quality Manager, auditor (07- present)

easyJet airline

Engineering Quality & Safety Manager, auditor (05–07)

My background

28 May, 2012

“Human beings by their very nature make mistakes; therefore, it is unreasonable to expect error-free human performance.” Shappell & Wiegmann, 1997

28 May, 2012Operational considerations

• Most of aviation equipment today is mature and reliable;

• Human behind ~ 95% of causal factors in all occurrences;

• Incidents and Accidents are rare and unpredictable with

little learning for improvement of daily routines;

• Ground incidents / damages are frequent front-line

indicators of airline organisational incidents;

• Errors and slips are evident in most regulated processes;

• Need to distinguish between the Ants and Elephants…

…. to maintain the control & develop safely.

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Quality & Safety roles

airline processes

Safety monitoring of

100% system outputQuality monitoring of

0.1-100% of system inputs

Cooperate on evolution of audit methodology and scope;

sharing the workload of investigations

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Safety Information Sources

Automated

Flight Data Monitoring

Technical Log

Voluntary

Reporting

Line Management

Instructions & guidance

for daily operations

(Risk assessment &

Change Mngmnt)

Mandatory

Reporting

Airworthiness

Review

ATC /

Airport /

Supplier

Reports

Oversight

Industry Studies

and Researches

Quality

AuditingInspections

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Management and analysis of:

All incoming reports

Risk assessments

Audit schedule and follow-up

Review of timely responses

Various data analysis

Quality and Safety Management System

Results and Trends

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Reporting

Flight Safety reports

Cabin Safety reports

Voyage reports

Technical reports & investigations

Employee feedback

Suppliers / Oversight

Customer complaints

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1,18

2,85

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sep.0

6

Nov

.06

Jan.

07

Mar

.07

Mai

.07

Jūl.07

Sep.0

7

Nov

.07

Jan.

08

Mar

.08

Mai

.08

Jūl.08

Sep.0

8

Nov

.08

Jan.

09

Mar

.09

Mai

.09

Jūl.09

Sep.0

9

Per 1000 12 months AVG

Statistical Monitoring of Safety Events(reportable events equalized per 1000 sectors flown)

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Risk Categories

Category If the event should recur, the probability of a major accident is…

R1 high

R2 increased under any circumstances

R3 increased under adverse circumstances that occasionally prevail

R4 not increased or increased only under extreme circumstances

R5 not increased as the occurrence is not related to flight safety

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0

5

10

15

20

Sep Nov Jan Mar Mai Jūl Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep

R3 R4 R5 R2

Categories of Reported events

Assessment of events carried out by Flight Safety Office and

Post Holder of the respective Operating department.

All events reported to the National Aviation Authority & investigated

0,33

0

1

2

3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

ARI 2009 ARI 2007

ARI 2006 ARI 2008

Airline Risk Index (reportable events x severity, equalized per 1000 sectors)

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So What?

1 x High

100 x Medium

2000 x Low

Not all threat combinations are visible,

tangible, nor predictable

Staff on duty shall have clear

understanding of potential risks and

safety impact of own activities

Safety monitoring & evidence recording

shall become part of daily routines

and decision-making

Sample of Self-Monitoring

100 flight hours exceeded in 28 day period

High (more than 10 cases per 1000 cycles)

Medium (2-10 cases per 1000 cycles)

Low (less than 1 case per 1000 cycles)

High (more than 3 flight hours exceeded)

)

Medium (1-3 flight hours exceeded)

Low (less than 1 flight hour exceeded)

Minimum Rest Time reduced

High (more than 10 cases per 1000 cycles)

Medium (2-10 cases per 1000 cycles)

Low (less than 1 case per 1000 cycles)

High (more than 45min. short to minimum rest

period)

Medium (15 till 45 min. short to minimum rest

period)

Low (less than 15 min short to minimum rest

period)

100h/28d FDT & Minimum Rest time monitoring (1 calendar month)

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Potential Benefits

– Creating risk-controlled operating environment

– Identifying areas for continuous safety improvement

– Reducing occurrence numbers & severity

– Improving a/c availability

– Streamlining interfaces amongst operating units

– Becoming management tool for balanced decision making

Providing clear safety margins to the individuals will contribute towards improved safety & business integrity, by:

Flight Safety Assessment

Unique Threats Additional Defences

Crew experience

For first two months operations line captains (LCP) and experienced

FO (over X00h on type) authorized to operate.

After gaining operational experience, Captains with no LCP can

operate to XXX following familiarization flight.

Captains and FO with experience less than X00h on type not

authorized to operate. Ground School Familiarization required before

flight to XXX. Familiarization valid for 6 months.

High terrain, Some obstacles not equipped with

obstacle lights

EGPWS data base shall be maintained updated.

On approach Terrain mode selected on ND.

Non-standard glide path angle – 4

degreesFlaps 40 before entering GS, No Autoland. 3 degree PAPI visual GS.

Remote Alternates (closer aerodromes are

either complicated, requiring special permits, or closed

during airBaltic night-stop flights

ALT1, ALT2, ALT3 designated as alternates, requires consideration

for extra alternate fuel

Frequent turbulence & severe icingEngine Anti/Ice On, when in clouds. Additional crosswind limits set

(reduced by 5 kts compared to OM B 1.3.1)

Relatively Short RWY & LDA– 2000 m,

landing performance limitations likely

Flaps 40 landing, Low Friction or Contaminated RWY Landing Field

Limit Weight for <=FC0.4 to be checked (OMB 4.A4) Autobrake

MAX, after landing apply MAX manual brakes (allows to benefit from

reverse thrust).

Intolerable Tolerable Acceptable

Change Management –Formalised Risk assessment & Mitigation(Sample B3 Aerodrome assessment)

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Cooperation through regulatory evolution:

Timely notification of safety related occurrences

References to the list of reportable occurrences

Details of preliminary risk assessment

Automated notification on the investigation closure

Support with cross-border investigations and

resolution of SAFA disputes

Interaction with the CAA

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Investment:

• Committed staff with suitable tools, training &

procedures

• Slight increase in formalising investigations,

recommendations and management decisions

Benefits to the Airline:

Increased safety awareness & participation

Transparent safety risks & safeguards towards

management, CAA and public benefit

Summary of SMS implementation

28 May, 2012

Thank you!

Your Questions & Comments