AIR QUALITY/ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AIR QUALITY/ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IN THE NRC DECADAL SURVEY,IN THE NRC DECADAL SURVEY,

Earth Science and Applications from Space: Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and BeyondNational Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond

Daniel J. JacobHarvard University

NRC Decadal Surveys are produced in many areas of scienceNRC Decadal Surveys are produced in many areas of science

• Community-based documents identifying priority directions in a scientific field to retain US leadership

• Respond to demands and charges from specific sponsors (agencies, OMB, OSTP, Congress)

• Provide strategic advice, not tactical

• Have been used in the past by NASA for Space Science, not Earth Science

The Earth Science and Applications from Space (ESAS) Decadal Survey (released Feb 07) was requested by NASA/NOAA to set up a prioritized queue of satellite missions across all fields of Earth science for 2010-2019. Goal was to achieve:

• coherent strategic vision• community buy-in and imprimatur• budget justification

DS Executive Committee & 7 Thematic PanelsDS Executive Committee & 7 Thematic PanelsMember Institution Expertise

Rick Anthes Univ. Corp. Atmospheric Research (UCAR), co-chair Atmospheric science

Berrien Moore U. New Hampshire, co-chair Biogeochemical cycling

Jim Anderson Harvard University Atmospheric science, chemistry

Bruce Marcus Former TRW (ret) Remote sensing

Bill Gail Microsoft Virtual Earth Civil space & Information Technology

Susan Cutter U. South Carolina Hazards & risk

Tony Hollingsworth European Centre Medium-range Weather Forecasts Weather forecasting

Kathie Kelly U. Washington Physical oceanography, satellite observation

Neal Lane Rice University Policy

Warren Washington National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate

Mary Lou Zoback Risk Management Solutions Solid earth

Tony Janetos Pac. NW Natl Lab/UMd, Applications Panel Chair Ecology & land remote sensing

Brad Hager MIT, Solid Earth Panel Chair Solid earth & Natural hazards

Ruth DeFries U. Maryland, Ecosystems Panel Chair Land cover change & remote sensing

Susan Avery U. Colorado, Weather Panel Chair Weather

Eric Barron U. Texas, Climate Panel Chair Climate

Dennis Lettenmaier U. Washington, Water Resources Panel Chair Water resources

Mark Wilson U. Michigan, Human Health Panel Chair Human health

Vision: “A healthy, secure, prosperous & sustainable society for all people on Earth”

Top Ten Scientific Questions identified by Decadal SurveyTop Ten Scientific Questions identified by Decadal Survey

10. Are major fault systems nearing release of stress via strong earthquakes?

9. Will tropical cyclones & heat waves become more frequent & intense?

8. What are health impacts of expanded “Ozone Hole” that could result from stratosphere cooling associated with climate change?

7. Will rare diseases become common, how will mosquito-borne viruses spread with changes in rainfall & drought, & can we better predict avian flu?

6. How will boreal forests shift as temperature & precipitation change at high latitudes, & what effects on animal migrations & invasive species will occur?

5. How will coastal & ocean ecosystems respond to changes in physical forcing, particularly those subject to intense human harvesting?

4. How will economic development affect air pollution & transport across oceans & continents, & how are pollutants transformed during transport?

3. How will reduced snowfall affect water storage requirements?

2. Will droughts become more widespread in U.S., Australia, & sub-Saharan Africa, & how will that affect wildfires?

1. Will major ice sheets (including Greenland & West Antarctica) collapse, & if so, how rapidly & what sea-level rise will result?

Atmospheric composition is identified with ozone layer and air quality; relevance to climate change, ecosystems not recognized directly

Decadal Survey Process for Mission SelectionDecadal Survey Process for Mission Selection

• Panels reviewed >100 candidate missions submitted in response to public Request for Information (RFI)

• 35 of these missions were recommended to Executive Committee

• ExCom made final recommendation of 17 missions in three cohorts (2010-2013, 2014-2016, 2017-2019). Presented this ensemble as “minimal yet robust”, warned against cherry-picking.

• Beyond this strategic plan, Decadal Survey recommended regular schedule of Venture-Class missions with $200M budget cap for grass-roots infusion of new ideas and technology

17 Recommended New Missions:17 Recommended New Missions:“Minimal Yet Robust”“Minimal Yet Robust”

• NOAA: Transition 3 LEO “research” to “operational”– Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVRM)– GPS radio-occultation (GPSRO) temperature, water vapor, & electron

density sounding– Total solar irradiance via Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity

Observatory (CLARREO) & NPOESS

• NASA: Implement solar spectral portion of CLARREO & 14 other missions, 2 GEO (Geo-CAPE & PATH) & 12 LEO

3D-WindsACE

ASCENDS

CLARREO

DESDynI GACM

Geo-CAPE

GPSRO

GRACE-IIHyspIRIICESat-IIPATH

& LIST

SCLPSMAPSWOTXOVRM

11stst cohort (“2010-2013”) NASA Missions cohort (“2010-2013”) NASA Missions

Mission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate

Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-NASA portion)

(1) Forcing & response of climate (climate) Precessing LEO

Absolute, spectrally resolved solar interferometer

$200M

Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP)

(5) Soil moisture & freeze/thaw, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Health and water)

LEO, SSO L-band radar & radiometer

$300M

Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite –II (ICESat-II)

(5) Clouds, Aerosols, Ice & Carbon, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, water)

LEO, Non- SSO

Laser altimeter $300M

Deformation, Ecosystem Structure & Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI)

(8) Ice Dynamics, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Heat Stress & Drought,Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Deformation, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, health, solid earth, water)

LEO, SSO L-band (1.2GHz) InSAR

Laser altimeter

$700M

• Now in pipeline in the order SMAP, ICESat-II, (DESDynI, CLARREO)• First launch (SMAP) unlikely to be before 2014 – at least four years delay relative to Decadal Survey schedule

22ndnd cohort NASA Missions cohort NASA MissionsMission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate

Hyperspectral/IR Imagery (HyspIRI)

(4) Land surface composition for agriculture & mineral characterization, vegetation types for ecosystem health (Ecosystem, health, solid earth)

LEO, SSO

Hyperspectral spectrometer

$300M

Active Sensing of CO2

Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS)

(2) Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2 column for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate, ecosystem, health)

LEO, SSO

Multifrequency laser

$400M

Surface Water/Ocean Topography (SWOT)

(4) Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Climate, health, water)

LEO, SSO

Ku-band radar

Ku-band altimeter

Microwave radiometer

$450M

Geostationary Coastal & Air Pollution Events (Geo-CAPE)

(9) Air Pollution, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Heat Stress & Drought, Inland & Coastal Water Quality, Ozone Processes. Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather)

GEO High spatial resolution hyperspectral spectrometer

Low spatial resolution imaging spectrometer

IR correlation radiometer

$550M

Aerosol/Cloud/Ecosystems (ACE)

(10) Aerosol-Cloud, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon. Ice Dynamics, Global Ocean Productivity, Ozone Processes, Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Climate, ecosystem, health, weather)

LEO, SSO

Backscatter lidar

Multiangle polarimeter

Doppler radar

$800M

In definition phase; these missions will likely not be launched before 2020. Likely to be revisited in next Decadal Survey

33rdrd cohort NASA Missions cohort NASA MissionsMission (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Orbit Instruments Estimate

Lidar Surface Topography (LIST)

(3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (Health, solid earth)

LEO, SSO

Modified Laser altimeter

$300M

Precision & All-weather Temperature & Humidity (PATH)

(5) All-weather temperature & humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious DiseaseVector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold Seasons (Health, water, weather)

GEO Microwave array spectrometer

$450M

Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment-II (GRACE-II)

(2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to track large-scale water movement (Climate and water)

LEO, SSO

Microwave or laser ranging system

$450M

Snow & Cold Land Processes (SCLP)

(1) Snow accumulation for fresh water availability (Water)

LEO, SSO

Ku & X-band radars

K & Ka-band radiometers

$500M

Global Atmospheric Composition Mission (GACM)

(7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather)

LEO, SSO

UV spectrometer

IR spectrometer

Microwave limb sounder

$600M

3-Dimensional Tropospheric Winds from Space-based Lidar (3D-Winds: Demo)

(3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water vapor transport (Health, water, weather)

LEO, SSO

Doppler lidar $650M

Useful to think about them, but will be revisited in next Decadal Survey…

Current NASA ESD budgets do not allow credible implementation of Decadal Survey

Fiscal Year

FY

06 $

Mil

lio

n

FY08Request

Prior Commitments

Decadal Survey Wedge

FY09Request

12

An Earth Science Initiative is needed… much more than anemic FY09 bump!

Atmospheric composition and the Decadal SurveyAtmospheric composition and the Decadal Survey

• Atmospheric composition was treated fairly by DS in framework of 2010-2019 schedule; but delay means large gap between Aura and the next atm comp mission

• Current ESD budgets do not allow credible implementation of the DS, even allowing for delays. Implementation of DS would require return of ESD budgets to 2000 levels (+33%). Making this happen will require political intervention

• GEO-Cape and ACE are budget-busters (>$1B each) – need cost reductions or they will never take off

• Important to work on mission definition for GEO-Cape, ACE, GACM because they are good ideas and we need to maintain vitality of atm composition research at NASA, but…

• Don’t view this DS as final word – we need to position ourselves for:

– opportunities with Venture-Class missions

– collaborations with international space partners (CEOS)

– the next Decadal Survey

FUTURE SATELLITE MISSIONSFUTURE SATELLITE MISSIONS

Continuity of UV/Vis (GOME-X series, VIIRS) Nadir+limb, UV-IR-wave

for vertical resolution(GACM)

Aerosol physics and clouds(Glory, ACE)

Global CO2

(OCO, ASCENDS) Geostationary(GEO-CAPE, GEO-SCIA)

Room for new ideas!• MEO, L1, L2 orbits• Lunar platform• Microsatellites• …

EARTH OBSERVATION FROM THE MOONEARTH OBSERVATION FROM THE MOON

6/24/2006

North Pole

12/20/2006

South Pole

as enabled by the NASA Lunar Exploration Program (South Pole base in 2020)

PROS: • continuous full-disk view of the Earth• global coverage, high observation density• large telescope, antennas, power supplies• stability of platform• ease of maintenance

• complicated viewing schedule, radiative transfer• dust, moonquakes• day/night heating differential

CONS:

Could be avoided with platformat Earth-Moon L1 point

Images fromJay Herman