air quality in a warming world modelling impacts of

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

AIR QUALITY IN A WARMING WORLD

Modelling Impacts of Different Technologies

Martin Cope

CLEAN AIR forum 2010

www.cawcr.gov.au


Air Quality- Australian Coastal Airsheds

Ozone

Particles

320 250


Ozone

Europe- ozone contributes to 21 thousand

premature deaths/yr

(http://royalsociety.org/document.asp?tip=0&id=8039 )

(Fig 2 of http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/

ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

Time series plot of 1-h ozone is from

http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/drs/pubs/287/atm/a_18_urban

_air_o3_daily_1_hour_dl.xls

http://royalsociety.org/document.asp?tip=0&id=8039


Projected Global Trends in Ozone

Wu et al. 2008.

A1B emissions only

Climate change only

Combined

A1B

Anthropogenic

emission scenario

NOx +41%

CO +21%

VOC +54%

“The future climate

is expected to be

more stagnant with

higher temperatures,

promoting additional

ozone formation

(1-10 ppb) due to climate

change alone”

Jacob et al. 20082000


Ozone

• Decreases in peak O3 due to NOx and VOC

emission controls

• Increase in lower percentiles due to

1/ NOx controls in urban areas

2/ increases in background O3

Urban

(Background ozone

concentrations are increasing

~6% per decade at Cape Grim.)

(Royal Society 2008) • The threshold for O3 health effects may be at

around background concentrations and thus

much lower than current air quality standards

(Bell et al. 2006)


Local climate and

air chemistry1996 -> 2005 etc.

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOWTASMAN SEA

60 km grid 3 km grid

Topography

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOWTASMAN SEA

Global ClimateOcean-Land-Atmosphere

1870 -> 2100

Regional climateLand-Atmosphere

1960 -> 2100

Urban climate

and chemistryDecadal runs

180 km grid

Sydney Ozone Projections

A2 emissions scenario


Principal Findings

Ozone projections were modelled for 2021-2030 and 2051-2060

• Anthropogenic emissions were held fixed at 2003 levels (except for temperature dependent emissions) to look at the ‘climate penalty’

• Exceedences of the NEPM AAQS for ozone were projected to increase by 27-30% and 45-92% respectively

• Hospital admissions due to ozone exposure were projected to increase by 40% and 200% respectively

• Cause- warmer temperatures-> more emissions and faster chemistry


Principal Findings

1996-2005 2021-2030 2051-2060

EASTING (m)

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

CLIMATE RUN: 2021-2030. AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS PER SEASON WITH 4-HR OZONE > 80 ppb

0

1

2

3

TASMAN SEA

EASTING (m)

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW


0

1

2

3

TASMAN SEA

EASTING (m)

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW


0

1

2

3

TASMAN SEA

Average exceedence frequency for 4-h ozone > 80 ppb


• National emission trading target to 20% below 1990 levels

by 2020 and 60% below 2000 levels by 2050.

• Moderately increasing oil prices + EIA high oil price

extrapolated to $US 133 /bbl by 2050.

Future Fuels Forum, Graham et al. 2008

Controlling GHG’s and Air Pollution

Black coal carbon sto.

Gas carbon storage

Hot fractured rocks

Solar thermal

Wind

Biomass

Gas peak

DG

Gas combined cycle

Black coal pf

Petrol

Aviation fuelYear

Electricity generation by technology

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

TW

h

Nuclear

DG

Hot fracturedrocksSolar thermal

Wind

Biomass

Gas peak

Gas CCS

Gas combinedcycleBrown coalpartial CCSBlack coalpartial CCSBlack coal CCS

Black coal pf

Brown coal CCS

Brown coal pf

Hydro

Nuclear

Black coal carbon sto.

Gas carbon storage

Hot fractured rocks

Solar thermal

Wind

Biomass

Gas peak

DG

Gas combined cycle

Black coal pf

Petrol

Aviation fuelYear


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

TW

h

Nuclear

DG


Wind

Biomass

Gas peak

Gas CCS


Black coal pf

Brown coal CCS

Brown coal pf

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas carbon storage

Hot fractured rocks

Solar thermal

Wind

Biomass

Gas peak

DG

Gas combined cycle

Black coal pf

Petrol

Aviation fuelYear


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

TW

h

Nuclear

DG


Wind

Biomass

Gas peak

Gas CCS


Black coal pf

Brown coal CCS

Brown coal pf

Hydro

Nuclear


Projection of fuel consumption 2006 – 2050

100% biodiesel (B100)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

PJ

Electricity

LPG

Natural gas

GTL

CTL

B100

B20

Diesel

E85

E10

Petrol

Aviation fuel

20% biodiesel (B20)

LPG

Natural gas

Gas to Liquid (GTL)

Coal to Liquid

Electricity

Diesel

85% ethanol (E85)

10% ethanol (E10)

Petrol

Aviation fuelYear

Transport sector fuel consumption

Future Fuels Forum, Graham et al. 2008

Electric Vehicles and Ozone


Dr. P. Paevere & T. Jones, CSIRO

100%

100%

Coal

Electric vehicles and ozone


Dr. P. Paevere & T. Jones, CSIRO

Uncontrolled charging scenario- NSW summer peak

Electric Vehicles and Air Quality


260000 280000 300000 320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 420000

EASTING (m)

6180000

6200000

6220000

6240000

6260000

6280000

6300000

6320000

6340000

6360000

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

CLIMATE RUN: 2051-2060. AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS PER SEASON WITH 1-HR OZONE > 100 ppb. EV+RENEWABLES

0

1

2

3

TASMAN SEA

260000 280000 300000 320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 420000

EASTING (m)

6180000

6200000

6220000

6240000

6260000

6280000

6300000

6320000

6340000

6360000

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW


0

1

2

3

TASMAN SEA

260000 280000 300000 320000 340000 360000 380000 400000 420000

EASTING (m)

6180000

6200000

6220000

6240000

6260000

6280000

6300000

6320000

6340000

6360000

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

CLIMATE RUN: 2051-2060. AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS PER SEASON WITH 1-HR OZONE > 100 ppb. EV+ COAL

0

1

2

3

TASMAN SEA

2050 Base case EV + ren EV + coal

1112

16

21

788

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1-h > 100ppb 4-h > 80ppb

Nu

mb

er

of

Ex

ce

ed

en

ce

s

THRESHOLD

SEASONAL-AVERAGE OZONE EXCEEDENCES

1996-2005

2051-2060: Base

2051-2060: EV + Renewables

2051-2060: EV + Coal

Frequency of 4-h O3 > 80 ppb


Average number of days per season with T > 30 C

EASTING (m)

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

BGO

BER

BRICHU

EAR

KEM

LIN

LIV

MAC

NEW

OAK

RAN

RIC

ROZ

STM

VIN

WAL

WAR

WOL

CLIMATE RUN: 1996-2005Average number of days per year > 30degC

10

20

30

40

50

TASMAN SEA

1996-20052021-2030 -

1996-2005

2051-2060 -

1996-2005

Difference DifferenceReference

EASTING (m)

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

CLIMATE RUN: 2021-2030 minus 1996-2005Average number of days per year > 30degC

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

TASMAN SEA

EASTING (m)

NO

RT

H (

m)

SYDNEY

NEWCASTLE

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

CLIMATE RUN: 2051-2060 minus 1996-2005Average number of days per year > 30degC

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

TASMAN SEA

Heat Stress and Air Pollution Exposure


Heat Stress

MORTALITY ESTIMATES FOR HEAT STRESS

Relative risk factor RR= 1.03 C-1 (for Tmax > 28 C) increase in all-

causes mortality for the 65+ age group.

248317

950

176239

749

438

1312

0

400

800

1200

1600

Current decade 2050 2050 + ageing population

AN

NU

AL

MO

RT

AL

ITY

This study

McMichael et al (min)

McMichael et al (max)

Ageing population- assume a doubling of the proportion in 65+ age group

in the Sydney by 2050-2060

McMichael et al. 2002. Human Health and Climate Change in Oceania: A Risk Assessment


Heat and Air Pollution Exposure

.

Scatter plots of daily ozone and heat stress exposure for Sydney 1996-2005

HEAT EXPOSURE vs OZONE EXPOSURE

0.0

0.5

1.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

DAILY MORTALITY- HEAT STRESS

HO

SP

ITA

L A

DM

ISS

ION

S-

OZ

ON

E

HEAT EXPOSURE vs OZONE EXPOSURE

0

5

10

15

0 5 10 15 20 25


HO

SP

ITA

L A

DM

ISS

ION

S-

OZ

ON

EHEAT EXPOSURE vs OZONE EXPOSURE

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25


HO

SP

ITA

L A

DM

ISS

ION

S-

OZ

ON

E

O3 thres = 60 ppb O3 thres = 40 ppb O3 thres = 20 ppb

Does the joint presence of high temperatures and high ozone lead

to increased vulnerability to either driver of mortality/morbidity?

(A study of the excess mortality observed during the August 2003 heat wave

in Europe found that the relationship varied by city; [Filleul et al. 2006] )


Urban Greening and Air Quality

SYDNEY

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

PEAK 4-h OZONE: Base Case

0

1

2

3

4

50% increase in

vegetation coverage

G

H E Hv Ev

Gv

TSR

-0.5

0.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Day

Ambient temperature

Change

(C

)

Oklahoma city, June 2003

study – Screen temperature

Urban heat island

Urban heat island

Feb – Mar 2007


Diurnal variation (temperature driven) of isoprene and isoprene

oxidation products, E. Zardin et al., Poster 50, Greenhouse 2009

Fig. 4 Diurnal cycle of biogenic emissions during Jan '08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

3/1/08 7/1/08 11/1/08 16/1/08 21/1/08 26/1/08 30/1/08

Date

ppb

m/z 69 Isoprene m/z 71 MVK+MACR

Diurnal variation (temperature driven) of isoprene and isoprene

oxidation products, E. Zardin et al., Poster 50, Greenhouse 2009

Perth, Western Australia



SYDNEY

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


0

1

2

3

4

Increase urban

leaf area by 50%

G

H E Hv Ev

Gv

TSRIsoprene

0

2

4

6

0

1

2

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Concentration of isoprene + monoterpene

(pp

b)

Day

Change

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-10

0

10

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49Day

(pp

b)

Ozone concentration

Change

Feb – Mar 2007



SYDNEY

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


SYDNEY

PICTON

WOLLONGONG

PENRITH

LITHGOW

5

10

15

20

+50% Vegetation - Base Case

Base Difference

Feb – Mar 2007


Aerosols

700 deaths per year attributable to PM2.5 in

Australia (Ethanol and Health Study)

“Particulate matter (PM) correlates with

meteorology much weaker than ozone.

Rain and mixing depth strongly

effect PM and could either increase

or decrease regionally. Wild fires could

become a major PM source”

Jacob et al. 2008

320 250


Bushfire smoke

• Global amount of biomass burned in the year 2000 was 5.6 Pg,

releasing 38.3 Tg of PM2.5 ( Ito and Penner 2004).

• Biomass burning aerosols influence the radiative balance of the earth-

atmosphere system directly through the scattering and absorption of

radiation, and indirectly through their influence on cloud microphysical

processes, and therefore constitute an important forcing in climate

models (e.g., Penner, 2001).

• Biomass burning aerosols reduce visibility, influence atmospheric

photochemistry and can be inhaled into the deepest parts of the lungs,

so that they can have a significant effect on human health.


Observed changes in FFDI

• South-east Australia has become hotter and drier

since 1950.

• The annual cumulative FFDI displays a rapid increase

in the late-90s to early-00s at many locations.

• Increases of 10-40% between 1980-2000 and 2001-

2007 are evident at most sites.

• The strongest rises are seen in the interior portions of

NSW, and they are associated with a jump in the

number of very high and extreme fire danger days.

Forest Fire Danger Index

Derived by McArthur

Rate of spread (chains/hr) of a fire normalised to flat terrain and a fuel load of 12 t/ha

FFDI = f (fuel moisture, wind speed)

Fuel moisture = f(T, RH, soil moisture, WS), asymptotes at a min= ~2-3%

Year

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Cum

ula

tive F

FD

I

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Are

a (

kha)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Bendigo FFDI

Melbourne airport FFDI

Fire Area (kha)

FFDI courtesy of Chris Lucas


Summer 2006/2007 Alpine Fire

• During December 2006 –February 2007, the state of Victoria was ravaged by ~600 separate bushfires, that formed the Great Divide fire complex.

• More than 1.2 Mha was burned over ~60 days.

Smoke from fires in northern Victoria on 12

December 2006 (from

http://www.esands.com/news/061207

Bushfires/BushfireImages.htm)

Alpine fires – smoke plume

Ozone production - Alpine fires

Melbourne

http://www.esands.com/news/061207 Bushfires/BushfireImages.htm

http://www.esands.com/news/061207 Bushfires/BushfireImages.htm

Modelled fire impacts for December 2006


Modelled fire impacts for December 2006


25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

1

2

3

4

5

Frequency of days when

24-h PM2.5 > 25 g m-3Peak 24-h PM2.5


Ovens Valley – Daily PM2.5 and Hourly O3

16/12/06 23/12/06 30/12/06 6/01/07 13/01/07

Ozo

ne c

on

cen

trati

on

[p

pb

]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

PM

2.5 c

on

cen

trati

on

[g

/m3

]

0

20

40

60

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ozone

PM2.5

16/04/07 23/04/07 30/04/07 7/05/07 14/05/07

Ozo

ne c

on

cen

trati

on

[p

pb

]

0

20

40

60

80

100

PM

2.5 c

on

cen

trati

on

[g

/m3

]

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

• Bushfire are a major pollution source in Australia during drought years

• Projections are for a 10-50% (low warming) to 100-300% (high warming)

increase in extreme fire weather by 2050

• Victorian Royal Commission recommended prescribed burning based on

an annual rolling target of 5 per cent minimum of public land

• There will be a increased need to balance the health impacts of prescribed

burns vs. the reduction in bushfire risk

Bushfires 2006/2007

AQ objectives exceeded on 13 days

Prescribed burning

Objectives exceeded on 7 days

Meyer et al. Greenhouse 2009


Mercury and Other Persistent Pollutants

110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155

Longitude (°)

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

La

titu

de

(°)

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.7

2

2.5

[ng/m3]Near-surface annual average mercury concentrationAll sources

110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155

Longitude (°)

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

La

titu

de

(°)

0.02

0.05

0.1

0.2

0.5

1

2

5

Total annual wet deposition of mercury - All sources [µg/m2/yr]

Annual average Hg

concentrations (ng m-3)

Annual total Hg

wet deposition ( g m-2)

AUSTRALIAN MERCURY EMISSIONS

0

10

20

30

40

50

Industrial Commercial,

Domestic +

diffuse

Vegetation Canopy-soil Bare soil Fires

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

CO

NT

RIB

UT

ION

Cope et al. 2009

“The climate change effect on

mercury has received little

attention so far but significant

mobilisation of Hg presently in

ocean and soil reservoirs may be

expected”

Jacob et al. 2008Re-emissions dominate


Climate change and mercury?

Temperature

Precipitation

1960 20902006

+3.8 C

- 4%

SE AUSTRALIA

77% increase in Hg emissions from the soil.

This gives a 50% increase in the total

emissions of Hg (fire sources not changed).

A2 emissions scenario. CSIRO Mk3.5 GCM.

Downscaled to a 20 km grid over Australia.

Select 2090 for large T, small precip.

NATURAL EMISSIONS OF MERCURY FOR 2006 AND 2090

0

50

100

150

200

250

Plants Covered soil Bare soil

ton

ne

s

2050

2090

MERCURY WET AND DRY DEPOSITION- 2009 AND 2090

0

5

10

15

20

25

dry wet total

ton

nes

2006

2090

8% increase in dry deposition mass

60% increase in wet deposition mass

12% increase in total deposited mass

Of the additional 108 tonnes of Hg

emitted from soils, 98% is transported

away from the Australian land surface

(a short term outcome!)

Thank you


Martin Cope

Principal Research Scientist

Phone: 03 9239 4647

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.cawcr.gov.au

Thank youwww.cawcr.gov.au

air quality in a warming world modelling impacts of

Documents