air operations branch director course safety part 2 risk management u.s. air force auxiliary u.s....
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Air OperationsAir OperationsBranch Director CourseBranch Director Course
Safety Part 2Safety Part 2Risk ManagementRisk Management
U.S. AIR FORCE AUXILIARY
U.S. AIR FORCE AUXILIARY
OverviewOverview
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management Methodology
Safety IssuesSafety Issues
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyOverviewOverview
TerminologyTerminology
ProcessProcess
WorksheetWorksheet
PrinciplesPrinciples
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTermsTerms
Risk: The probability during a period of Risk: The probability during a period of activity that a hazard (potential for activity that a hazard (potential for accident or adverse event) will result in a accident or adverse event) will result in a loss with definable consequencesloss with definable consequences– This idea can be used beyond the realm of This idea can be used beyond the realm of
safety – there may be risks to effectiveness, safety – there may be risks to effectiveness, legal risks, etc.legal risks, etc.
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTerminologyTerminology
Risk Assessment: The process of Risk Assessment: The process of anticipating or detecting hazards and anticipating or detecting hazards and systematically assessing their overall risk systematically assessing their overall risk levellevel– Likelihood:Likelihood:
How likely is How likely is the risk?the risk?
– Impact:Impact: How serious is How serious is the consequence?the consequence?
impact
likelihood
High risk
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTerminologyTerminology
Risk Management: The practice of Risk Management: The practice of actively seeking to identify risks and actively seeking to identify risks and consciously choosing strategies to deal consciously choosing strategies to deal with those risks before they happen. with those risks before they happen.
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management MethodologyTerminologyTerminology
Strategies -Strategies -– Mitigate:Mitigate: alter plan to reduce risk level alter plan to reduce risk level
Reduce impact and/or likelihoodReduce impact and/or likelihoodMay include “contingency plans”May include “contingency plans”
– Avoid:Avoid: stop plan or take a course that stop plan or take a course that fundamentally eliminates the riskfundamentally eliminates the risk
– Accept:Accept: decide that, in balance, the risk is decide that, in balance, the risk is acceptable acceptable
careful! Use this only when risk level is very low or careful! Use this only when risk level is very low or need is extremely highneed is extremely high
Risk Management MethodologyRisk Management Methodology5 Step Risk Management Process5 Step Risk Management Process
Plan the activityPlan the activity
Identify and assess the riskIdentify and assess the risk
Weigh risk potential vs. needWeigh risk potential vs. need– Accept/Stop/Alter plans based on risksAccept/Stop/Alter plans based on risks
Implement the planImplement the plan
Monitor, evaluate and learnMonitor, evaluate and learn
Risk Management WorksheetRisk Management Worksheet
Projected RiskProjected Risk
Associated RiskAssociated Risk LevelLevel
Action TakenAction TakenLowLow MidMid HighHigh
Risk ManagementRisk ManagementPrinciplesPrinciples
This is not a theoretical exercise!This is not a theoretical exercise!Get everyone involvedGet everyone involvedAssessment must be made as early as Assessment must be made as early as possible so that decision can be made and possible so that decision can be made and action alteredaction alteredSubordinates must Subordinates must communicatecommunicate risk risk identification immediately for it to be usefulidentification immediately for it to be usefulRisk identification and assessment after Risk identification and assessment after the fact does nothing to manage riskthe fact does nothing to manage risk
Risk Identification TechniquesRisk Identification Techniques
Risk identification checklistsRisk identification checklistssearch for pre-identified, generic riskssearch for pre-identified, generic risksCAPR 60-3 Attachment 3CAPR 60-3 Attachment 3
Decision driver analysisDecision driver analysisstudy how decisions were made, searching for common study how decisions were made, searching for common
erroneous patterns (examples: avoiding outside help, erroneous patterns (examples: avoiding outside help, politics, tunnel vision)politics, tunnel vision)
Assumption analysisAssumption analysisstudy underlying assumptions, consider Murphy’s law study underlying assumptions, consider Murphy’s law
DecompositionDecompositionbreak problem into smaller pieces; look for undiscovered break problem into smaller pieces; look for undiscovered
issuesissues
Risk Management ChecklistRisk Management ChecklistCAPR 60-3 Attachment 3CAPR 60-3 Attachment 3
Example checklist question categoriesExample checklist question categoriesHow much experience does the mission staff How much experience does the mission staff have?have?Does the current communications system in place Does the current communications system in place adequately meet your needs?adequately meet your needs?What kind of weather are aircrews operating in?What kind of weather are aircrews operating in?Have aircrews been adequately briefed so that Have aircrews been adequately briefed so that they can effectively and safely complete their they can effectively and safely complete their assigned tasks?assigned tasks?What is the overall condition of the vehicles being What is the overall condition of the vehicles being used on the mission?used on the mission?
Events or Observations Often Call For Events or Observations Often Call For Immediate CommunicationImmediate Communication
Each individual should communicate Each individual should communicate important safety information to his/her important safety information to his/her supervisor in a timely mannersupervisor in a timely mannerEach person and supervisor should Each person and supervisor should consider who else would benefit from consider who else would benefit from information about the event or observationinformation about the event or observation– A sortie should call mission base by radio and A sortie should call mission base by radio and
pass information immediately when that pass information immediately when that information would benefit other sortiesinformation would benefit other sorties
Example Issues Requiring Example Issues Requiring Immediate CommunicationImmediate Communication
Hazardous or significant Hazardous or significant weather change observed weather change observed
Unexpected military air Unexpected military air operations observedoperations observed
Criminal activity observedCriminal activity observed– In some circumstances In some circumstances
communication might be communication might be delayed, if that is deemed delayed, if that is deemed the safer course of actionthe safer course of action
Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk
Engineering control Engineering control
Process control Process control
Communication/training control Communication/training control
Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk
Engineering control Engineering control – making a physical change to the – making a physical change to the environment or using specific toolsenvironment or using specific tools
Examples: Examples:
Taping down a loose extension cordTaping down a loose extension cord
Setting up a warning sign or perimeter tapeSetting up a warning sign or perimeter tape
Wearing orange safety vests in the woodsWearing orange safety vests in the woods
Arranging for hand-washing facilities along Arranging for hand-washing facilities along with sanitary facilities.with sanitary facilities.
Equipping ground teams with BBP exposure Equipping ground teams with BBP exposure control kitscontrol kits
Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk
Process control Process control – defining the way one works– defining the way one works
Examples: Examples:
Mission briefings and CAP Mission briefings and CAP flight releasesflight releases
Requiring period radio check-Requiring period radio check-insins
A pilot choosing to get flight-A pilot choosing to get flight-following from ATCfollowing from ATC
Mitigation Strategies:Mitigation Strategies:Three General Ways of Reducing RiskThree General Ways of Reducing Risk
Communication/training control Communication/training control – making individuals aware of a risk – making individuals aware of a risk and how to control it and how to control it
Examples: Examples:
Briefing aircrews on a specific risk on Briefing aircrews on a specific risk on a mission like radio towers in the a mission like radio towers in the search areasearch area
instructing ground teams to check instructing ground teams to check themselves for ticksthemselves for ticks
Questions?Questions?