The Relationship between Policymakers' Choices of Outcome Indicators for Children and Policies to Reduce Inequality

Between Children: Australia Since the 1980s

Gerry RedmondISCI, University of York, 27-29 July 2011

Aims of the presentation

Motivating the question – uncertainty in trends in inequalities in child outcomes

Analysing investments in children since the 1980s

Looking at outcomes for children

Conclusions

Motivators

Motivators for this analysis

Studies in several countries suggest uncertain trends in non-educational outcomes and inequalities in outcomes for children......

Tick et al.: Stable (NL)

Achinbach: Down during the Reagan years, then improving (US)

Collishaw et al.: Down in the 1980s and 1990s, improving slightly in the 2000s (UK)

Smart and Sanson: No great change (Australia)

Motivators.....

.... As well as uncertain trends in inequalities in educational outcomes.

Blanden & Machin (UK): little change in relationship between parent’s SES and children’s outcomes since 1970

Checchi (Italy): little change in relationship between parent education and child education over entire 20th century (even though average educational levels have improved greatly)

‘.. There has been a general decline in the reproduction of socioeconomic inequalities in Australia. However, there is little understanding of the processes involved; for example the importance of educational reforms, changing parental aspirations, individualism, bureaucratic selection procedures, and a decline in the socialization of the family..’ (Marks, Social Forces, 2010)

Australia: increased equity, or equality of opportunity in recent years?

Other (occasionally conflicting) evidence for Australia…

Rothman (2002) Effect of parent occupation on 14 year old student achievement in reading and mathematics mostly declined between 1975 and 1995, but in some cases increased between 1995 and 1998

Fullarton (2003) Decline in the influence of parent education or occupation on child’s likelihood of attaining Year 12 between 1980 and 2001

Leigh (2007) No great change in intergenerational mobility in Australia over time.

- Australia performs above the average in some measures of intergenerational mobility. - Gap in academic performance of 15 year old children whose mothers and fathers have low levels of education, relative to the performance of children whose mothers and fathers have high levels of education, is smaller in Australia than in most other countries (OECD, 2008).-Has this changed in recent decades, and if so, can this change be ascribed to investment in children?

Evidence from PISA…

Investments

Policy Goals in Australia

Hawke-Keating era (1983 to 1996) – end child poverty- universal health care- improve cash transfers for children- encourage parents into employment

Howard era (1996 to 2007) – choice & support- cash support for families- growth in services for children- focus on parent choice in health, education

[Rudd-Gillard era (from 2007) – investment in children for economic returns- focus on disadvantaged children (exclusion, lost productivity)- ‘Close the Gap’- work for parents

Investment in Elderly & Children OECD data

Trends in per capita social expenditure (excluding health & education) on elderly & families, Australia

Source: OECD Social Expenditure Database

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 Per capita (1980=100)

Elderly

Children

Public investment in both cash transfers andin-kind services for children increased greatly between 1988-89 and 2003-04....

Trends in social expenditure on children, Australia ($ per week, 2003 prices)

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

Variable 1988-89 1993-94 1998-99 2003-04

change 1988-89

to 2003-04

Private income 485 409 495 573 +18.1Direct benefits 43 73 79 88 +103.4Direct taxes 115 89 114 129 +12.5Disposable income 414 393 461 532 +28.5In-kind benefits 60 65 91 100 +66.4Final income 474 458 551 632 +33.3

Almost half of the increase in in-kind benefits for Australian children went towards education....

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

17

38

4

11

19

05

40

10

20

30

40

50

60

$ pe

r wee

ek

Change to 2003-04

1988-89

+65%

+125%

0%

+50%

+++

Real change in indirect public benefits for children: amounts per child 1988-89 to 2003-04 ($ per week)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Lowest 2nd 3rd Highest

$ ga

in p

er w

eek

Quartiles of disposable household income

cash benefits

education

health care

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

... And public expenditure was focused more on the poorest children....

.... Child poverty declined...

Source: Survey of Incomes and Housing Costs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

below 60% median

below 50% median

Below 1982 60% median

Trends in poverty among families with children, Australia 1982 to 2007-08 (per cent)

.... While income inequality did not increase greatly...

Source: Survey of Incomes and Housing Costs

Trends in inequality among working age families with children, Australia 1982 to 2007-08 (per cent)

P90/P50 P50/P10 P90/P10 Gini1982 1.83 2.35 4.30 0.2961990 1.83 2.14 3.91 0.2981994 1.88 2.14 4.03 0.3111995 1.91 2.21 4.21 0.3091996 1.87 2.14 3.99 0.3022000 1.90 2.32 4.40 0.3202002 1.93 2.31 4.44 0.3162003 1.89 2.27 4.30 0.3092005 1.91 2.36 4.51 0.3172007 1.93 2.33 4.50 0.324

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

But.......

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

Public Investment in Children’s Education,1988-89 to 2003-04, by household income

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Dolla

rs p

er w

eek

Percentiles of disposable household income

Public, 2003-04

Public, 1988-89

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Dolla

rs p

er w

eek

Percentiles of disposable household income

Public, 2003-04

Public, 1988-89

Private, 2003-04

Private, 1988-89

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

Public and Private Investment in Children’s Education,1988-89 to 2003-04, by household income

Source: Household Expenditure Surveys, Australia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Dolla

rs p

er w

eek

Percentiles of disposable household income

2003-041988-89

Public and Private Investment in Children’s Education, combined, 1988-89 to 2003-04

Enrolment in public education, 1993-2010 (per cent all enrolments)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Primary

Secondary

Enrolment in public schools declined

Outcomes

What outcomes might we expect?

Unclear trends in investments…

- Positive moves to increase equityreducing child povertyModerate increases in income inequalityincreasing resources for poorer childrenimproving health care for all children

- But also increased private expenditure on educationand policy encouragement to spend on private education

- And increase enrolments in non-Government schools

PISA scores (15 year olds), Australia,P95/P5 and P90/P10

Source: Thomson et al, 2008, 2010

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2000 2003 2006 2009

Science

Reading

Maths

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2000 2003 2006 2009

Science

Reading

Maths

P95/P5 P90/P10

PISA scores (15 year olds), Australia,by family SES

Source: Thomson et al, 2008, 2010

2000 2003 2006 2009ReadingAverage score 528 525 513 515Per cent score explained by SES 17.4 14.2 11.8 12.7

Scientific literacyAverage score 528 525 527 527Per cent score explained by SES 14.3 14.6 11.3

Mathematical literacyAverage score 533 524 520 514Per cent score explained by SES 17.1 13.7 11.5

TIMSS (14 year olds), Australia

Ratio of scores – children with university educated mothers to children whose mothers did not complete lower secondary

Source: Thomson et al, 2008, 2010

1.071.081.091.101.111.121.131.141.151.16

1995 1999 2003 2007

Persistent behaviour difficulties among childrenaged 4-8, by parent education, Australia, 1980s and 2000s

Beh

avio

ur p

robl

ems

Parent education Parent educationB

ehav

iour

pro

blem

s

1980s 2000s

1980s data – Australian Temperament Project database 2000s data – Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

So.. Is everything OK, or are we shining a light in the wrong place?

Some survey data suggest that inequality in educational achievement according to SES has declined in recent years

Other measures of inequality in educational achievement do not suggest a large increase in inequality

This accords with declining child poverty, moderate income inequality & and more equitable public investment in education

Does it also accord with growing private investment in education, or in increasing proportions of children attending private schools?

Conclusion

So.. Is everything OK, or are we shining a light in the wrong place?

Grek & Ozga (2008): comparative exercises such as PISA “have major impacts on national policies..... Such activities have major impacts on definitions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ education systems and required solutions...”

Information in PISA, TIMSS etc. is used to define problems and solutions – is this a problem?

Conclusion

How should we judge the success of public investments in children in Australia? Can we expect more of public policy in Australia, other than to hold inequalities in check?

Are we shining a light in the right place, or should we be looking for other types of inequalities?

Is it too early to examine the effects of policies implemented in the 1980s and 1990s?

Questions

Gerry Redmond

g.redmond@unsw.edu.au

www.sprc.unsw.edu.au