AIDS is caused by a virus called HIV, the Human Immunodeficiency Virus. There is no cure for AIDS. There are drugs that can slow down the HIV virus, and slow down the damage to your immune system. There is no way to "clear" the HIV out of your body. You can get infected with HIV from anyone who's infected, even if they don't look sick and even if they haven't tested HIV-positive yet. The blood, vaginal fluid, semen, and breast milk of people infected with HIV has enough of the virus in it to infect other people.

DEFINITIONS USED IN THIS PROJECT

COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R²) - the proportion of variability in a data set that is accounted for by a statistical model.

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (R)- A measure of the interdependence of two random variables that ranges in value from -1 to +1, indicating perfect negative correlation at -1, absence of correlation at zero, and perfect positive correlation at +1.

-In this project, I will be exploring the influence of aids in the economy and how it affects the world population. HIV is fluctuating enormously and this is a huge factor in the way you live your life. It is vital to understand the problems of the economy and possible ways to solve this crisis because it can drastically impact our futures.

-For several years, aids has been increasing around the world and even affects children. With more people holding the virus, it will be harder for the world to repopulate in a healthy way and can cause careless deaths. This project will give you a better understanding on the topic and will give you accurate data that represents many economies. Along with that you will learn how to keep yourself safe and think twice before having any sexual encounters.

-The main things that will be reflected upon in this project are:

-The amount of people infected with aids and their regions of living

-The methods of getting Aids and the amount of deaths from it

- Global funds towards Aids

--And how it affects the world economies along with us in Canada

Question #1 HIV is a serious disease that affects various

people. How many people does it infect worldwide compared to the Canadian economy?

I hypothesize that there will be around 50,000,000 people infected with Aids in the world. Out of the major regions in the world I predict that Africa will have the largest amount of HIV infectors. I also predict that Canada will have a small amount of HIV infectors compared to other regions.

REGION NUMBER OF PEOPLEAustralia & New Zealand 15,000Caribbean 470,000East Asia & Pacific 1,000,000Europe & Central Asia 1,500,000Latin America 1,600,000Middle East & North Africa 600,000North America 995,000South and South-East Asia 6,400,000Sub-Saharan Africa 26,600,000

The main regions of the world all hold a different amounts of people withHIV. The Asian and African regions have the highest rates of Aids while Australia & New Zealand appear to have the least amount.

2006

AIDS ACROSS THE WORLD 2006

PO

PU

LA

TIIO

N

REGIONS

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDANCY

-MEAN: 4,353,333.3

-MEDIAN: 1,000,000

-MODE: NONE

MEASURE OF SPREAD

STANDARD DEVIATION: 8,553,782.4VARIANCE: 7.31672 ^13 QUARTILE 1: 535,000QUARTILE 2: 1,000,000QUARTILE 3: 4,000,000INTERQUARTILE RANGE: 3,465,000SEMIQUARTILE RANGE: 1,732,500Z-Score: 2.6

AIDS AROUND THE WORLD

Q1 – 535,000

Q3 – 4,000,000

Q2 – 1,000,000

As you can see, there is a large range within the data because the maximum value is incredibly high and not close to the other sets of data. This graph showed that the median (Q2) was closer to the minimum value rather than the maximum. The results vary from region to region and Sub Saharan Africa is an outlier in the data. The outlier has a z-score of 2.6 which means that it is around 2 standard deviations away from the mean. The median value is closer to the minimum value.

These values show that the average amount of people infected with aids in 2006 is 4,353,333. The median of the data is 1,000,000 which is

a fairly close to the mean value. This data also showed a standard deviation that displayed that on average the data was about

8,553,782.4 away from the mean of the data. This shows how spread out the data was for people with aids and means that the numbers

vary in different economies. The data also showed an extremely high

variance which goes to show that the dispersion was very large or in other

words the data varied greatly. The interquartile range isn’t very large, therefore

the middle half of the data does not have a wide spread. Sub Saharan

Africa is considered an outlier because it has a major impact on the data and would

cause a difference in the information if it was not included.

PROVINCE PEOPLE WITH AIDSBritish Columbia 4053Yukon 8Alberta 1290Northwest Territorries 19Nunavut 0Saskatchewan 235Manitoba 258Ontario 8112Quebec 6098New Brunswick 168P.E.I 337Newfoundland 91

Canada is not even close to the amount of HIV infectors as the rest of the world and is one of the healthier areas. Out of all of the provinces, Ontario has the most people with Aids and Nunavut has none at all, and is therefore an outlier because it creates a distinct range in the set of data.

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDANCY

-MEAN: 1,722.4

-MEDIAN: 246.5

-MODE: NONE

MEASURE OF SPREAD

STANDARD DEVIATION: 2,792.1VARIANCE: 7,795,701QUARTILE 1: 64.5QUARTILE 2: 246.5QUARTILE 3: 2,671.5INTERQUARTILE RANGE: 2,607SEMIQUARTILE RANGE: 1,303.5

These values show that the average amount of people infected with aids in Canada is 1,722.4. The median of the data is 246.5 which is far away from the mean. This data also showed a standard deviation that displayed that on average the data was about 2,792.1 away from the mean of the data. This shows how spread out the data was for people with aids. The data also showed a variance of 7,795,701 which means that the majority of the data was similar and had a big range. The interquartile range shows that there is a big variety between Q1 and Q2 and this can be seen on the table and the graph.

MY HYPOTHESIS WAS CORRECT!From the set of data about Aids, there was a total of 39,180,000

people living in the world with the HIV virus and a small amount

of 20,669 living in Canada. I hypothesized an answer of 50,000,000

which is a close estimate to the actual number. I was correct

when stating that Africa would have the most people infected

with HIV because of the poor economy, therefore my estimates

were accurate. From the data we can see that there are many

regions that have intense amounts of people with HIV while

Canada is one of the few lucky ones that have a decent economy.

We can compare it to other economies and regions of the world

and see their range of infectors.

What are the attempts to try preventing Aids and does it have any global funds?

QUESTION # 2

I hypothesize as the rates of infected

people increase, more money is put

into the fight against Aids because it

is becoming a more serious problem

as time progresses. I predict that

more money will be spent as time

Passes due to the government.

In the past six years, the World Bank has committed about US$ 2 billion through grants, loans and credits for programs to fight HIV/AIDS. UNAIDS is the official global charity for Aids and receives large payments from multiple countries towards the fight for aids. The millions of dollars increase every year. Government funding is the only way for progress towards a cure for aids and the data below shows the economies' progress over the years.

YEAR US DOLLARS 1986 4,000,0001988 40,000,0001990 49,000,0001992 98,000,0001994 112,000,0001996 114,000,0001998 125,000,0002000 186,000,0002002 367,000,0002004 420,000,0002006 463,000,000

GLOBAL TRUST FUNDS

US

DO

LL

AR

S ( IN

M

ILL

ION

S)

YEARS

The graph above shows a strong positive correlation. As time passes by the Government funding for Aids increases and this is shown in a linear regression.The COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (r^2 value) is .862 and this means that the data on the graph is almost following a perfect linear pattern. The correlation is strong and positive.

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDANCY

-MEAN: 187,500,000

-MEDIAN: 119,500,000

-MODE: NONE

MEASURE OF SPREAD

STANDARD DEVIATION: 151,770,477VARIANCE: 23,034,277,777,777,800QUARTILE 1: 101,500,000QUARTILE 2: 119,500,000QUARTILE 3: 321,750,000INTERQUARTILE RANGE: 220,250,000SEMIQUARTILE RANGE: 110,125,000

Q1 – 101,500,000

Q2 – 119,100,000

Q3 – 321.750,000

As you can see, the range within the data is closer to the minimum value. The Maximum value is 420,000,000 therefore it creates a spread in the data. The Interquartile range is larger then the standard deviation therefore there is a greater Range in the middle sets of data and thus the maximum can be seen as an outlier.

These values show that the average amountof dollars spent on Aids through “USAIDS” from 1986-2004 is $187,500,000. This data alsoshowed a standard deviation that displayedthat on average the data was about $171,770,477 away from themean of the data. This shows how spread out the data was forthe amounts of funding. The data also showed an extremely high variance of 23,034,277,777,777,800 which goes to show that the dispersion was very large orin other words the data varied greatly. The interquartile range is larger then the standard deviation, therefore the middle half of the data has a wider spread. There are several outliers in the data such as the maximum value because it has a large impact on the rest of the data and affects the Measure of Spread, along with the Central Tendency. The maximum is $463,000,000. The data Shows that the funding has been increasing and more and more money will be put into Aids research.

From the global funding data, it isshown that multiple economies fund money towards the Aids virus through the UNAIDS association. The data shows that as time increases, the funding does as well. This shows us that as more people develop the virus, more money has to be added for research and forms of treatment. The largest amount used was $463,000,000 in a single year. If there is no cure found, then the demand for Government funding will surely increase. There are of many funding organizations present in the world, but UNAIDS is the largest and most official group.

How many people die from Aids?

HYPOTHESISSince there are around 40,000,000 people infected with HIV in the world I hypothesize that at least 20% of that population dies from it, meaning that around8,000,000 people are met by death.

HIV has several main causes. The majority of people develop it from unprotected sex while others get the virus through needles or blood transfusions. There are some who can get HIV from their mothers who carry it. These are the main causes of why people die from Aids.

HIV CAUSES NUMBER OF PEOPLEUNPROTECTED SEX 29,378,000SHARING NEEDLES 1,174,400BLOOD TRANSFUSION 781,600BORN FROM A MOTHER WITH HIV 7,832,000OTHER 14,000

GLOBAL AIDS RELATED DEATHS 2007GLOBAL AIDS RELATED DEATHS 2007

REGION TOTAL DEATHSSub-Saharan Africa 1,500,000North Africa & Middle East 27,000Asia 380,000Oceania 1,000Latin America 63,000Caribbean 14,000Eastern Europe & Central Asia 58,000North America 31,000

Unlike the data from question #1, this set is smaller. Although it is smaller, it is Even more serious because it relates to the number of deaths. Not only are These deaths from Africa or Asia, but also from our regions. Sub-Saharan Africa Has the largest death rate while the Oceania region has the least.

The following histogram was made on fathom and shows the amount of deaths in the global regions of the world. Oceana, which consists of Australia, New Zealand and other small islands has the lowest death rate due to their small population of infected people. Sub Saharan Africa has a large population of infected people therefore the death rates are higher and do not change because of the poor economy and medical treatment. Question #2 applies to this question mainly because different regions have different amounts of money thus treatment varies from place to place and is often very hard to slow down. North America is one of the lucky areas because it has a moderate population of infected people and has the money for research and small treatments.

 

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDANCY

-MEAN: 259,250

-MEDIAN: 44,500

-MODE: NONE

MEASURE OF SPREAD

STANDARD DEVIATION: 516,296.63VARIANCE: 2.40362 ^12QUARTILE 1: 20,500QUARTILE 2: 44,500QUARTILE 3: 221,500INTERQUARTILE RANGE: 201,000SEMIQUARTILE RANGE: 100,500

Z-Score for Maximum (Sub Saharan Africa)1,500,000 – 256,250 516,296.63 = 2.4

As you can see, the data in the set is closer to the minimum value and Due to the large range, thebox whisker plot appears to be compressed. The Q1 value is 20,500 and the median is 44,500, unlike Q3 which is 221,500 and quite far in distance. Sub Saharan Africa has a death population of 1,500,000 which is the highest out of all of the economies thus creating an enormous range. It is the maximum value and is considered an outlier because of its impact on the rest of the data.

Q1 – 20,500

Q2 – 221,500

Q2 –44,500

BOX WHISKER PLOTBOX WHISKER PLOT

MAX: 1,500,000

These values show that an average of 358,250 people died in 2007. This data also showed a standard deviation that displayed that on average the data was about 516,296.63 away from the mean of the data. This shows how spread out the data was for the amounts of funding. This spread is mostly because of Sub Saharan Africa having the highest death population within it’s economy. Most of the death rates are similar therefore the variance is only 37,186 which means that about an average amount of people are dying in each region, excluding Sub Africa. The interquartile range is only 201,000 which shows that the middle of the data does not have a very high range. It is the maximum value that creates the standard deviation and creates a range within the data. These calculations are showing us that the death rates vary from region to region and are significantly high, which clarifies how serious AIDS really is.

MY HYPOTHESIS WAS INCORRECT!MY HYPOTHESIS WAS INCORRECT!

I predicted that approximately 20% of the people infected with AIDS die from it, Which is about 8,000,000 people. The actual answer, by totaling the deaths inall of the regions is 2,074,000 which is not what I predicted. However, 2,074,000 deaths per year from ONE cause is very massive. It is a shame that people must Die from a virus such as AIDS when others are unaware of the consequences. The North American economy has quite a significant amount of deaths but there are countries that are far worst. In conclusion, although the death rates vary in different economies, the results are still very high.

At the end of 2005 there were an estimated 20,669 people in Canada living with HIV. Of these, around 30% were unaware of their infection. what is the probability that more than 8,000 of them have AIDS?

n= 20,669

p= 0.30

q= 0.70

np= 20,669 x .30 = 6,201 > 5

nq = 20,669 x .70 = 144,683 >5

 

µ= np = 6,201

Standard Deviation (δ) = √ (npq)

√ (20,669 x 0.30 x 0.70) = 4,340.49

= p(x>5,000)

= p (z> 7,999.5 – 6,201)

4,340.49

= p (z> 0.41)

= 1-(z> 0.41)

= 1- 0.6591

=0.3409

= 34%

The probability that more the 8,000 people were unaware of having AIDS is 34%.

It is clear through this project that Aids is a vivid thing, which we cannot avoid. We see that there are economies such as Sub Saharan Africa that struggle with the virus unconditionally. Although the rates in North America are not as high, it does not mean that it is avoidable. This is a waking call for many to think about the issue and how it can affect anyone due to it being spread throughout the world.

Preventing and treating sexually transmitted infection reduces the risk of HIV transmission. This is especially true for members of populations who are most likely to have a high number of sex partners. Yet prevention and treatment of sexually transmitted infections remain a poorly exploited element of potentially successful prevention strategies, not least in sub-Saharan Africa.We have government funding that assists in the fight for Aids but it is up to us to make decisions for ourselves and be safe. The death rates are an example of how many people can die from this virus ever single year. With the statistics rising, it is clearly seen that AIDS is a serious thing and must be dealt with properly.

CONCLUSION

-People need to challenge the myths and misconceptions about human sexuality that translate into dangerous sexual practices.

-HIV prevention initiatives need to be increased, people across the world need to be made aware of the dangers, the risks, and the ways they can protect themselves.

-Condom promotion and supply needs to be increased, and the appropriate sexual health education needs to be provided to young people before they reach an age where they become sexually active.

-Medication and support needs to be provided to people who are already HIV+, so that they can live longer and more productive lives, support their families, and avoid transmitting the virus onwards.

WHAT CAN YOU DO?

BIBLIOGRAPHY-“2008 Report on the global AIDS epidemic”

<http://www.unaids.org/en/KnowledgeCentre/HIVData/ GlobalReport/2008/2008_Global_report.asp>-“Access to HIV Treatment and Care”

<http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEAPREGTOPHIVAIDS /Resources/fs_treatment_en_pdf.pdf>-“Global Spending”

< http://ari.ucsf.edu/science/reports/global_spending.pdf>-“How can HIV transmission be prevented”

< http://www.avert.org/prevent-hiv.htm>-“Deaths In Canada”

<http://estat.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm?regtkt=&C2Sub=&ARRAYID=1020551&C2DB=EST&VEC=&HILITE=HIV&LANG=E&SrchVer=&ChunkSize=50&SDDSLOC=%2F%2Fwww.statcan.gc.ca%2Fimdb-bmdi%2F*-eng.htm&ROOTDIR=ESTAT/&RESULTTEMPLATE=ESTAT/CII_PICK&ARRAY_PICK=1&SDDSID=&SDDSDESC=>

-“What is Aids?”< http://www.aids.org/factSheets/101-what-is-aids.html>