AI, now and future

Wei Xu

Baidu

Baidu 1

Baidu 2

1. Now

2. Future

AI wave

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AI job market

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AI Job opening change in China (%)

Data source: zhaopin.com

Figure credit: zhaopin.com

Shares of US Jobs Requiring AI Skills

Data source: indeed.com

Figure credit: AI Index 2017 Annual Report

Driving forces for the recent AI progress

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Big data

Computation power

Deep learning

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Accu

racy

Data size

Traditional ML

Deep learning

Deep learning revolution

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Shallow neural net Deep neural net

Speech recognition

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0.0%

5.0%

10.0%E

r

r

o

r

R

a

t

e

Chinse speech recognition for

voice search

Image recognition

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First deep learning model

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Human 2015 2016 2017

ImageNet classification error

Image recognition

Japanese cherry Sushi Ferrari California

Echeveria Mebina Mapo tofu Toyota land cruiser

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Face recognition from parental faces

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Face recognition across time - finding lost

person

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4 year old 10 year old

Generating faces

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Karas et. al. 2018

Medical image analysis: skin cancer

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Figure from Esteva et al.

Document analysis

Theme tag

Technology 0.93

AI 0.95

Topic tag

Baidu create 0.95

Entity tag

Baidu 0.9

Robin Li 0.9

Qi Lu 0.9

DuerOS 0.75

Apollo 0.7

Tech

Speech tech

Baidu

HCI

L4

L3

Car industry

New energy vehicle

Developer

Autonomous driving

North highway 5

AI

Apollo

Lidar

Tesla

AI

Topic tag

Entity tag

Theme tag Baidu AI dev conference

Graph

Baidu held its first AI developer

conference

Creating the most complete AI open

eco-system

Jul. 5, Baidu AI developer conference

(Baidu Create 2017) was held in Beijing

national conference center. Baidu

announced its complete AI eco-system

strategy to 5000 developers and partners.

Baidu founder, board president and CEO

Robin Li said, “AI is the destined future,

openness will benefit more people.

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OCR translation

Conversation translation

Text translation

Machine Translation

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Simultaneous translation

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Reading comprehension – single document

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The Stanford Question Answering Dataset

Reading comprehension: multi-document

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Microsoft Machine Reading Comprehension Dataset (MS MARCO)

Board games

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Google DeepMind: AlphaZero

AI applications at Baidu

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What tasks are suitable for AI?

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Criteria ✔ ✘

Well defined input-output mapping Predict loan default Summarize

document

Large data sets Predict ad click Detect intrusion

Clearly definable goals and metrics Play board games Education

No long chains of reasoning using

diverse background knowledge or

common sense

Play video shooting

game

Dialog

No need for detailed explanation Recognize character Diagnose disease

A tolerance for error Recommend product Drive

No specialized dexterity, physical

skills, or mobility required

Manufacturing robot

for specific task

Household robot

Brynjolfsson et. al. 2017

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1. Now

2. Future

Near term impact: more routine jobs will be

automated

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Near term impact: job displacement

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Source: McKinsey

Occupations requiring higher levels of education and

experience have lower automation potential

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Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; O*Net; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Long term impact: human level intelligence

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Muller et al, 2014

Long term impact: good or bad?

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Muller et al, 2014

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Thank you!

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Thank you!