ai in life extension
TRANSCRIPT
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Alexei Turchin
I want to live forever How AI will help me?
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AI spring
2012 – Neural networks 2016 – AI hype in media
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What is going on now?
Major IT companies created medical AI departments:
• Google – Calico, Deepmind Health • Facebook – Chan-Zuckerberg
initiative • Intel – Intel health and science • IBM – IBM Watson • Microsoft – Microsoft Health, Allen
Brain Atlas, malaria research in Gates foundation
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What is going on now?
Major IT companies created medical AI departments:
• Global AI startup financing hit $5 bn in 2016 (Nikkei)
• Medicine – 15% of total spendings
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What is going on now? From Virtual Nurses To Drug Discovery:
106 Artificial Intelligence Startups In Healthcare
Deals to healthcare-focused AI startups went up from less than 20 in 2012 to nearly 70 in 2016.
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People are still dying Aging kills 100k people a day
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How apply AI for life-extension?
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}Research
Therapy
Uploading
Life extension
AI
2 New therapies
3 Robo-scientists
1 Diagnosis
2 Cure
3 Profilaxis
1 Cryonics
2 Recording
3 BCI
1 Cure aging
Medical AI ≠ Life extension AI
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Medical AI tasks overview1. Medical research and drugs development 2. Disease prevention 3. Diagnostics 4. Therapy 5. Rehabilitation and nursing
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Non-medical AI tasks for life extension
1. Brain interfaces (BCI) – This sphere directly related to life extension as it may eventually lead to “uploading” of human consciousness to a computer; 2. Human security – AI can do a lot to reduce the non-medical risks; 3. Digital immortality and cryonics 4. Partnership with robots
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❶ Narrow AI ❷ AGI = human level AI ❸ Superintelligence
AI epochs:
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Stages of AI developmentNarrow AI. now Human level AI, or AGI. somewhere in middle а 21 century Superintelligence, as Bostrom-Yudkowsky - end of 21 century
When?
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Narrow AI
Aging – cause of death Combinations of geroprotectors We need AI to calculate
is most effective in scientific research
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Geroprotectors• Geroprocteotrs research is one of several promising
approaches to fight aging, where AI may help • Other are genetics manipulations, SENS, regenerative
medicine, microbiota • Geroprotectors are drugs which prevent aging and
extend life • Many drugs, supplements and food could extend life
of mice 10-40 per cent individually
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Will geroprotectors work on humans?
• We don’t know • Very long and expensive experiments are needed • Clinical trial approved only for methformin (but no
funding) • Aging is not a disease according to WHO
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Biomarkers of aging based on Big data will help
• Shorter experiments • Wearable devices • Patient organizations – less regulation • Powerful computer and algorithms are needed to
analyze the data.
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Combinatorial explosions
For 10 – 1024 For 20 – 1 048 576
We need AI to solve it
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AlphaGowas able to effectively search
combinations space
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Data• Wearables and gadgets • 23andMe • Complex blood tests
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Data is needed to train narrow AI
IBM bought Truven for $ 2.6 billion, which has hundred millions of patients medical records.
http://fortune.com/2016/02/18/ibm-truven-health-acquisition/
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Startups
Deepmind Healthcare: Stream app. “Streaming the right information to the right clinician at the right time”
AiCure: confirms medication ingestion
Babylon Health: AI exper t system + videochat
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Similar applications of AI to search for new thingsProject Atomnet – chemical materials properties predicting on the basis of convolutional neural networks. http://www.atomwise.com/introducing-atomnet/
Predicting the electrical properties of new molecules using a multilayer neural network http://www.worldcommunitygrid.org/about_us/viewNewsArticle.do?articleId=450
Ligand properties predictions: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4510302/
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Other application of AI in medical scientific researchNew drug candidates could be found • Generative neural networks may create plausible candidates • They could be tested on digital models of cells, molecular pathways or receptors
Model of aging as instability of genetic networks • AI could help in calculating complex theoretical models • “Gero” company use system dynamic to analyse instabilities in genetic networks
Robots in the lab: automation
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AGI
When: from 2020 to 2100
How long: From days to decades
Conservative estimate: 2050 and decades
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Upgrade Network
Elon Mask: neural lace and Open AI: net of self improving individuals We: Best way for such merge: medical AI
• BCI + “neuronet” • Self-improvement • Cyborgization • Human-like AI assistants • Humoral interface • Social network of patients
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Value alignment problem: Humans are self-improving nodes of the net = no need to upload values.
It will be best solution, as it doesn’t require one AI taking over the world
Upgrade Network
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Human level AI as personal physician
• Inside your body • Provide advise • Language understanding • Will know source of pain • Could work as autopilot for human: prevent dangerous
behavior. Ethical?
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Human level AI as a research catalyst
Human level AI will accelerate research in life extension
• AI-scientists • Automated labs • AI as a research institute
ARUP Automation Systems
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Human level AI as a research catalyst
Problem: 1. 80-90 per cent of medical studies are not replicable. 2. Human life extension is especially vulnerable to fraud as results are remote. Snake oil wins.
Task of verification of truth by AI: • replicability, • total recording of experiments, • blockchain, • fraud and plagiarism • detection, • altruistic selfless agents
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Human level AI as a research catalyst
Problem: 1. FDA require tons of legal documents for clinical rials 2. They cost billions AI lawyer • prepare documents, read laws • Etherium-style contracts
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Superintelligence Recursively self-improving
Will quickly become smarter than all human race Many are afraid of it: Bostrom, Musk
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Levels of Superintelligence
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Superintelligence and nanotechnologies
Nanorobots A) self-replicating B) externally controlled C) having narrow AI
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Superintelligence will solve death
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Superintelligence will prevent x-risk
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Resurrection of the dead
• Cryopatients • Preserved human brain • Digital immortality
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Surviving until creation of Strong AI
• The older the person, the less chances • Longevity escape velocity [de Grey] • Patient organisations and clinical trials • Competence • Accelerate medical AI creation (if it safe)
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Narrow AI
AGI
Superintelligence
People are dying
Immortality
2 Wearables
3 Big data
1 Upgrade net
2 Humoral interface
3 Robo-scientists
1 Nanotech
2 Uploading
3 Resurrection
1 Geroprotectors
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contacts: [email protected]
Physical immortality is possible and AI is the best instrument to reach it