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AI and the Game of Markets Ben Hunt March 2018

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Page 1: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

AI and theGame of Markets

Ben Hunt

March 2018

Page 2: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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DisclosuresThis commentary is being provided to you by individual personnel of Salient Partners, L.P. and affiliates (“Salient”) and is

advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s indivi

author W. Ben Hunt’s affiliation with Salient Partners, L.P. and affiliates and does not reflect the opinions of Salient.

Page 3: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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How Does a Horse Run?

Page 4: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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How Does a Horse Run?

Page 5: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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How Does a Horse Run?

Page 6: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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AI Processes (Visualizes) Unstructured Data

Page 7: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Another Unromantic Truth

Quality factor useless since QE began

Page 8: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Another Unromantic Truth

Hedge Fund convexity vanished since QE began

Page 9: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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How Does a Market Run Without Quality?

Central banks have purchased more than $20 Trillion of financial assets, lifting the price of ALL financial assets.

How does that work?

Page 10: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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The crisis has passed, but I think the Fed’s need to educate and explain will only grow.― Ben Bernanke, November 19, 2013

Central Bankers Call it Communication Policy

Page 11: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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The Common Knowledge Gamethe the

getthe

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thedon’t the

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the“At”

Page 12: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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The Power of the Crowd Watching the Crowd

Page 13: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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The Power of the Crowd Watching the Crowd

Page 14: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Our Modern Missionaries

Page 15: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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And Our Missionary-in-Chief

Page 16: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Media Barons Have Known This Forever

Page 17: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Even Today

Page 18: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Even Today

Page 19: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Wall Street Has Known This Forever

Page 20: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days …

Wall Street Has Known This Forever

Page 21: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Even Today

Page 22: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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― –

Then

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Page 24: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Use AI to Visualize Missionary Narratives

Page 25: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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Use AI to Visualize Narrative Networks

Page 26: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

What Does the Mexico Narrative Look Like?

TMT (11%) Auto (3.9%)

Page 27: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

TMT (11%) Auto (3.9%)

What Does the Mexico Narrative Look Like?

Page 28: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

Bloomberg Narrative re: Trump Election week T-5 to T-2

Bloomberg Narrative re: Trump Election week T-1

Bloomberg Narrative re: Trump Election week T+1

What Does the Trump Narrative Look Like?

Page 29: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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The Evolution of Market Technology

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AI Doesn’t Replace Humans - It Saves Them

Page 31: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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What To Do? Think Critically

Don’t Be the Sucker at the Table

Page 32: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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What To Do? Think Critically

Don’t Be the Sucker at the Table

Page 33: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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What To Do? Think Differently

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W. Ben Hunt, Ph.D.

[email protected]

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AI Powered by Videogame Processors

Page 36: AI and the Game of Markets · Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 20 Henry Blodget and Frank Quattrone in happier days … Wall Street Has Known This Forever. 21 Even Today. 22

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How AI Works (NOT One Big Brain)

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What’s Next With AI (Quantum Compute)