ahs hotel market outlook q1 2012 summary
DESCRIPTION
AHS Advisory presents our forecasts for hotel occupancy, average rate and RevPAR movements in Australia for the next three yearsTRANSCRIPT
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Hotel Market Outlook
Australian Key cities
Q1 2012
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
Ma
r-83
Ma
r-84
Ma
r-85
Ma
r-86
Ma
r-87
Ma
r-88
Ma
r-89
Ma
r-90
Ma
r-91
Ma
r-92
Ma
r-93
Ma
r-94
Ma
r-95
Ma
r-96
Ma
r-97
Ma
r-98
Ma
r-99
Ma
r-00
Ma
r-01
Ma
r-02
Ma
r-03
Ma
r-04
Ma
r-05
Ma
r-06
Ma
r-07
Ma
r-08
Ma
r-09
Ma
r-10
Ma
r-11
Ma
r-12
Ma
r-13
Ma
r-14
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-16
Residents Departing Tourists Arriving Net Tourist Exchange
International Arrivals and Departures
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
50.0%
52.0%
54.0%
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
All Australia – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Sydney Inner – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
74.0%
76.0%
78.0%
80.0%
82.0%
84.0%
86.0%
88.0%
90.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Melbourne Inner/Sbnk/Dlds– Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
82.5%
85.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Brisbane City – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Gold Coast – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
$120
$135
$150
$165
$180
$195
$210
40.0%
42.5%
45.0%
47.5%
50.0%
52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
TNQ – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Adelaide City – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend RHS)
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Perth Inner – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
$325
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
82.5%
85.0%
87.5%
90.0%
92.5%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Canberra – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
$120
$135
$150
$165
$180
$195
$210
50.0%
52.5%
55.0%
57.5%
60.0%
62.5%
65.0%
67.5%
70.0%
72.5%
75.0%
77.5%
80.0%
82.5%
85.0%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS)
Darwin – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
Comparison – Occ%
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
Comparison – Average Room Rate Growth
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
Comparison – Average Room Rate
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Comparison – RevPAR
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Ma
r-9
3
Se
p-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Se
p-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Se
p-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Se
p-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Se
p-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Se
p-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Se
p-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Se
p-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Gold Coast TNQ Adelaide Perth Canberra Darwin
AHS
© AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
AHS AdvisoryHospitality Real Estate & Consulting
Sydney
Rutger Smits Ron de Wit
[email protected] [email protected]
0414 414 513 0414 860 207