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Agriculture and Renewable Energy

Sponsored by

Tennessee Department of Agriculture

The University of Tennessee at Martin

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Alternative Energy Issues• What is driving the question?

– Environmental issues

• Greenhouse gases, global warming, fossil fuel depletion..

– National security

• Dependence on foreign nations for vital industry component.

– Global instability

• Middle East

– $$$$$$$$$

• American pocket book typically translates into policy change.

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Alternative Energy Issues

• The United States imports more than 60% of its petroleum– two-thirds of which is used to fuel vehicles in

the form of gasoline and diesel.

• The demand for petroleum imports is increasing. – Much of the worldwide petroleum reserves

located in politically volatile countries– United States is vulnerable to supply

disruptions.

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The Role of Agriculture

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The Call to Energy Security“To build a future of energy security, we must trust in the creative genius of American researchers and entrepreneurs and empower them to pioneer a new generation of clean energy technology. Our security, our prosperity, and our environment all require reducing our dependence on oil.”

President George W. Bush

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

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U.S. Planted Corn Acreage

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Acr

es (

1,00

0)

National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2008

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History of U.S. Ethanol Production

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New RFS signed Dec. 19, 2007Year Conventional

BiofuelAdvanced

BiofuelCellulosic

BiofuelBiomass

DieselUndiff Adv

BiofuelTotal RFS

    (BGY)   

2008 9         92009 10.5 0.6   0.5 0.1 11.1

2010 12 0.95 0.1 0.65 0.2 12.95

2011 12.6 1.35 0.25 0.8 0.3 13.95

2012 13.2 2 0.5 1 0.5 15.2

2013 13.8 2.75 1   1.75 16.55

2014 14.4 3.75 1.75   2 18.15

2015 15 5.5 3   2.5 20.5

2016 15 7.25 4.25   3 22.25

2017 15 9 5.5   3.5 24

2018 15 11 7   4 26

2019 15 13 8.5   4.5 28

2020 15 15 10.5   4.5 30

2021 15 18 13.5   4.5 33

2022 15 21 16   5 36

Ethanol

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Current & Under Construction Capacity

• In 2007, there were 142 existing ethanol plants with a capacity to produce 8.9 Billion Gallons/Year (BGY)

• Another 67 plants are now under construction with a planned capacity of an additional 5.1 BGY

• Total existing and under-construction capacity of 13.0 BGY

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National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2008

U.S. Soybean Acreage

56000

58000

60000

62000

64000

66000

68000

70000

72000

74000

76000

78000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Ac

res

(1

00

0)

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Source: National Biodiesel Board, 2008

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How Can Tennessee Agriculture Help?

• 2007 Tennessee acreage– Corn 870,000 acres– Soybeans 1.04 million acres

• Future Projections– Ethanol 31.5 billion gallons

or 20% of projected U.S. fuel use by 2015?

– Would require 95.6 million acres of corn.

– Include expanded acreage in Tennessee

– Result in $4.00 + corn Happy Farmers!

Tennessee Corn Acreage

690 710680

650

550

870

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Ac

res

(1

,00

0)

Tennessee Soybean Acreage

11601150

1210

1130

1160

1040

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

AC

res

(1,0

00)

National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2008

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A Possible Future of Agriculture

• Corn as a feed for livestock will probably decline.

• Beef and dairy will consume increased Dried Distillers Grains.

• Possibly see shrinking poultry and pork markets due to expected higher feed costs.

• The end result, consumers will pay for energy through fuel and food.

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Special Thanks

• Tennessee Department of Agriculture• University of Tennessee at Martin• Dr. Bill Herndon, Mississippi State University