agriculture and policy sea

Agriculture and policy in Southeast Asia: trends and opportunities

Jared Greenville, Senior Agriculture Policy Analyst, OECD

2

www.oecd.org/tadTrade and Agriculture Directorate

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Southeast Asia: A growing agricultural producer

1961-69 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Net production Net per capita production

Source: FAO STAT

Annual compound growth%

3



Changing consumption patterns: increasing meat demand

Source: OECD Outlook

Annual compound per capita growth rate between 2015-2024

4



Changing consumption patterns: stable on rice

Source: OECD Outlook

Annual compound per capita growth rate between 2015-2024

5



Southeast Asia: growing agro-food trader

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

020406080

100120140160

Exports Imports Net

Source: Comtrade

USD billion

6



Agricultural policy varied, but strong self-sufficiency focus

Self-sufficiency targets Intensified post 2007/08 Rice centric

Differing approaches Insulation policies (trade barriers etc) Public procurement and distribution Regulatory (land constraints) Also investments in infrastructure (irrigation)

7



Agricultural policies: lasting effects of the 2007/08 crisis

Apr-01Nov

-01Jun

-02Jan

-03Aug

-03Mar-

04Oct-

04

May-05Dec-

05Jul

-06Fe

b-07

Sep-0

7Apr-

08Nov

-08Jun

-09Jan

-10Aug

-10Mar-

11Oct-

11

May-12Dec-

12Jul

-13Fe

b-14Se

p-14

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Indonesia Viet Nam Philippines Cambodia

Rice wholesale price gaps (relative to Thai price)

Source: OECD estimates

8



Some current policies have worked against resilienceeg household food security in Indonesia

Rice Market Price Support

Raskin

Fertilizer subsidy

Crop insurance

Food voucher

Targeted cash transfer

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3% point change in undernourishment

Current policies

Alternative policies

Source: OECD (2015)

9



What can drive productivity and smallholder engagement

Critical factors within agriculture Agricultural infrastructure Access to credit Capacity to meet standards

Training, extension, education levels Land tenure systems

Also outside agriculture Ability for adjustment to occur

Connectivity, education, labour markets …

10



In these areas, the region lags behind some peers

Normalised difference to average index values (0=average, 1= 1 stdev from average, etc)

ChileMex

icoTu

rkeyRuss

iaEg

ypt

China

Costa R

ica

Ukraine

Philip

pines

Keny

a

Viet Nam

Indon

esia

Ethiop

iaGha

na

Sene

gal

Cambo

dia-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5

Farm finance Agricultural R&D Land market rights and access Agricultural infrastructure

Sources: EIU, IFPRI & Millennium Challenge Account

11



Potential to shift focus

Policy redirect Balance of agricultural programs towards facilitating investments

Agricultural infrastructure Credit markets

Other aspects of the enabling environment Education Connecting rural to urban communities Opportunities outside agriculture

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