AgricultureandClimateChange:ImpactsandSolu7ons

Richard Young Sustainable Food Trust

Castle Debates

Sainsbury’s Store Support Centre

10 June 2016

FAOReports•  Livestock’sLongShadow2006es7mated18%ofGHGdue

tolivestock•  Tacklingclimatechangethoughlivestock2013es7mated

14.5%ofGHGemissionsduetolivestock(41%frombeef,20%frommilk)

•  However,thesefiguresincludelandusechange,butonlyforSouthAmericaandtheCaribbean(seepage106)

•  Theymakenoallowanceforlandputintowoodlandorbacktograss,asintheUK,andalsoexcludeongoingsoilcarbonandmethanesinklossfromcropland.

•  ThereportalsofailstoconsidertherealreasonswhycaUleencroachedonrainforestlandinSouthAmerica.

• 

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30Livestockemissions Cropland Se4lements Wetlands Otherlanduses Grassland ForestLand

MillionTo

nnesCO₂e

quivalen

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UKLivestockMethanec/wLandUseEmissions

Entericfermenta7oncaUle Entericfermenta7onsheep

Manuremanagement Othermethaneemissions

Usingdatafrom:Milesetal.(2014)’EmissionsandRemovalsofGreenhouseGasesfromLandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry(LULUCF)forEngland,Scotland,WalesandNorthernIreland:1990-2012’CentreforEcologyandHydrology,DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChangeContractGA0510Defra(2015)AgriculturalSta7s7csandClimateChange,6thEdi7on

Intensivechickenproduc7onisamoreefficientwaytoproduceproteinthanbeefproduc7on.Butpoultryneedhighqualitygrainandprotein,bothofwhichcomeatahighenvironmentalcostandindoorproduc7onsystemsaremajorsourcesofammoniaandnitrousoxide..CaUle,ontheotherhand,cangrazegrass,whichwecannoteatandarebeUerabletou7lizearablebi-productsthanchickens.

WherecaUlearerearedexclusivelyongrassandclover,thereisalsononeedfornitrogenfer7liser,amajorsourceofgreenhousegasemissions.Andifweacceptedthatbeeffatfromgrass-fedanimalsisashealthyaspalmoilandhealthierthansoyabeanoil,theefficiencyofbeefproduc7onwouldbeseentoalmostdouble.

CopyrightNaimAlelhUps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Птичник.JPG

Likelambstotheslaughter

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2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Per

Cap

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mpt

ion

(kg)

Year

UKsheepmeatconsump7on2000-2014 UKlambconsump7onbyagegroup

32%fallsince2000(40%fallsince1995)

Source:AHDBBeef&Lamb

Thesoildegrada7onproblem

SoilCarbon

FAO2009.FoodSecurityandAgriculturalMi7ga7oninDevelopingCountries:Op7onsforCapturingSynergies

•  Landusechangefromna7veforestsandnaturalgrasslandstoagriculture,

especiallycon7nuousarablecropproduc7oncontributestoGHGemissions

throughthemineralisa7onofsoilcarbonanddecomposi7onofvegeta7on.

•  Landusechangeises7matedtohavecontributed55-135billiontonsofcarbon

emissionasCO2duringtheperiod1850-1998.

•  Conversionofcroplandtograsslandleadstoanaverage19%increaseinSOC

•  Recentresearchhasshownthatoncesoilcarbonfallstoolow,maximumcrop

yieldscannotbeachievednomaUerhowmuchfer7liserisused

Importanceofgrazinglivestock•  Grassistheonlymajorfoodcropapartfromtreesthatcanrebuildsoilcarbonand

reversesoildegrada7on.Butwecan’teatit,howeverhungryweare.

•  Grazinganimalsneededtomakecommercialuseofgrassandforagelegumes

•  Foragelegumesprovidetheonlysignificantwaytointroducesufficientnitrogen

intosoilstosustainhighproduc7vity,otherthanusingnitrogenfer7liser

•  EUconsumerspay€35-230billionannuallyforthehiddencostsofNfer7lsier

•  Clovercanfixupto180kgN/ha/yr;Lucerne(alfalfa)over200kgN/ha/yr

•  TheUKpredominantlypastoral,butwealsoneedforgrassincroprota7ons

•  Weneedtodis;nguishbetweengrass-andgrain-fedruminants

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SOCchangesfollowinglandusechange,Rothamsted

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1940

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20001980

Year

Org

anic

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a -1

Startedarable

Startedgrass

Johnstonetal(2009)AdvancesinAgronomy101,1-57

Trial1☐Grasskeptasgrasso  Grassconvertedtoarable� Arablekeptasarablen Arableconvertedtograss

UNEPreportin2013restatesclaimthatno-7llagricultureincreasesSOC,andes7matethatagriculturalemissionscouldbereducedbyup4.3bntonnesCO2p.a.with89%ofthisfromno-7llagriculture.Powlsonetal.2014find,frommeta-analysisofpublishedstudies,thatapparentincreasesofSOCintoplayersofsoilareinvariablyoffsetbylossesatdeeperlevels.

9%

Butwhataboutmethane?•  Methaneconcentra7on2.57meshigherthanpre-industriallevels•  Shorthalflifeofmethanemakesitimportantreavoidingrunawayclimate

change

Nazariesetal.2013.Methane,microbesandmodelsEnvironmentalMicrobiology15:2395-2417

Isruminantmethanesuchabigissueaswe’vebeenledtobelieve?

•  Methanelevels2.57mepre-industriallevelsandresponsibleforc.16%ofglobalwarming

•  Ruminantsresponsibleforc.17%ofallsourcemethaneemissions(27ofanthropogenicmethane).

•  Soruminantmethaneresponsibleforc.2.7%ofglobalwarmingor4.3%ofhuman-inducedwarming.

•  Notinsignificantbutallthecarboninthemethaneisrecycled.WhenruminantmethanebreaksdowntoCO2andH2Oisdoesnotaddtoatmosphericcarbonoroceanacidifica7on,unlikefossilfuelmethane.

Soyaandourneedforfat•  EUimports30MTp.a.from20millionhectares•  Soyabeansbreakdownto79%proteinmeal,mostlyforlivestockand11%oil

•  But80%oftheoilusedinprocessedfoodforhumans,19%biodiesel,1%cosme7csetc.

•  35%ofourenergyintakecomesfromfatsandoils,sowoulds7llneedalltheoileveniftherewerenolivestocktoeattheprotein

•  Increasingdemandforpalmoil•  Oilseedrapemaincauseofpollinatorloss.

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RichardYoungPolicyDirector

SustainableFoodTrustrichard@sustainablefoodtrust.orgwww.sustainablefoodtrust.org